Blue Whiting Focus Group Blue Whiting Focus Group MSY = 50,700 to - PDF document

ICES Advice ICES Advice Blue Whiting Combined Stock I- Blue Whiting Combined Stock I -IX,XII & XIV IX,XII & XIV Blue Whiting Focus Group Blue Whiting Focus Group � MSY = 50,700 to 223,000 t 50,700 to 223,000 t � PA = Zero � Management plan = 40,100 t Pelagic RAC Pelagic RAC Total Agreed TAC 2010: 548,000 t � Total Agreed TAC 2010: 548,000 t � � Coastal States Agreed TAC 2011: 40,100 t Coastal States Agreed TAC 2011: 40,100 t � Brussels 18 th Nov. 2010 Blue Whiting Combined Stock Blue Whiting Combined Stock Blue Whiting Combined Stock Blue Whiting Combined Stock I- -IX,XII & XIV IX,XII & XIV I I- I -IX,XII & XIV IX,XII & XIV PRAC Recommendations Major issues Advice: PRAC Recommendations Major issues Advice: � Huge variations TAC advice Huge variations TAC advice � No TAC advice � No TAC advice � Instead Instead Point out difficulties with assessment � Point out difficulties with assessment � Highlight at Coastal States meeting � Highlight at Coastal States meeting � Seek immediate benchmark 2011 � Seek immediate benchmark 2011 � � Establish PRAC Focus Group with scientists Establish PRAC Focus Group with scientists � Blue Whiting Combined Stock Blue Whiting Combined Stock Blue Whiting Combined Stock Blue Whiting Combined Stock BLUE WHITING IN SUBAREAS I-IX,XII AND XIV - I- I -IX,XII & XIV IX,XII & XIV ICES PREDICTED CATCH I- -IX,XII & XIV IX,XII & XIV I Major issues Advice: Major issues Advice: 1600 ICES PERDICTED CATCH 1400 � Huge variations TAC advice Huge variations TAC advice � (Tonnes * 1000) 1200 Huge variations Fishing Mortality � Huge variations Fishing Mortality � 1000 800 600 400 200 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 YEAR

ICES Advice Last Year ICES Advice Last Year The estimated SSB for 2008 has been revised Blue Whiting Fishing Mortality 3-7 upwards by 40% and the estimated fishing mortality in 2007 has been revised downwards by 13%. Around 40% of the change in SSB is due to the greater reliance this year on spawning ground survey results (relaxation of 65% the constraint on survey CV), and the remainder Higher due to the addition of recent data. 2009 estimate of 2008 F 2010 estimate of 2009 F This Year ICES Advice Compared to last year, the SSB for 2009 is estimated to be about 42% lower and the fishing 2010 estimate of 2008 F mortality in 2008 to be about 65% higher. Blue Whiting Combined Stock Blue Whiting Combined Stock Extract ICES Advice 2010 I- -IX,XII & XIV IX,XII & XIV I Biology Major issues Advice: Blue whiting is widely distributed in the eastern Major issues Advice: part of the North Atlantic with the highest � Huge variations TAC advice Huge variations TAC advice � � Huge variations Fishing Mortality Huge variations Fishing Mortality � concentrations along the edge of the continental � Assessment Model stakeholders lack Assessment Model stakeholders lack � shelf between 300 and 600 m. Most of the confidence confidence spawning takes place along the shelf edge and � Influence North Atlantic sub polar gyre Influence North Atlantic sub polar gyre � banks west of the British Isles. Juveniles are One stock ICES 2009b report (?) � One stock ICES 2009b report (?) abundant in many areas, with the main nursery � area believed to be the Norwegian Sea. Recent work on stock identification suggests that there is likely to be more than one single stock in the Northeast Atlantic. Blue Whiting Combined Stock Blue Whiting Combined Stock Commission’s Policy Statement I- I -IX,XII & XIV IX,XII & XIV Major issues Advice: Major issues Advice: “For stocks for which no long-term plans have � � Huge variations TAC advice Huge variations TAC advice � Huge variations Fishing Mortality Huge variations Fishing Mortality yet been proposed, it would be appropriate to � � Assessment Model stakeholders confidence Assessment Model stakeholders confidence � move towards MSY by reducing fishing � Influence North Atlantic sub polar gyre Influence North Atlantic sub polar gyre � mortality in equal steps from � One stock ICES 2009b report (?) One stock ICES 2009b report (?) � Management Plan cannot cater large � Management Plan cannot cater large the 2011 fishing year until the 2014 fishing � fluctuations fluctuations year to Fmsy, and exploiting stocks at Fmsy in � Survey problems Survey problems � 2015 and thereafter. Starting in 2011, this � Precautionary fishing mortality = 0.32 Precautionary fishing mortality = 0.32 means four equal steps .” � � Calculation MSY in transition Calculation MSY in transition �

Blue Whiting Combined Stock Blue Whiting Combined Stock Total Blue Whiting Landings by Country 2009 I I- -IX,XII & XIV IX,XII & XIV Tonnes Major issues Advice: Major issues Advice: � Huge variations TAC advice Huge variations TAC advice � � Huge variations Fishing Mortality Huge variations Fishing Mortality � � One stock ICES 2009b report One stock ICES 2009b report (?) (?) � � Management Plan cannot cater large fluctuations Management Plan cannot cater large fluctuations � � Survey problems Survey problems � � Precautionary fishing mortality = 0.32 Precautionary fishing mortality = 0.32 � � Calculation MSY in transition Calculation MSY in transition � � Basis for no recruitment Basis for no recruitment � � Catch figures 2009 (?) Catch figures 2009 (?) � END