Blue Whiting Focus Group Blue Whiting Focus Group MSY = 50,700 to - - PDF document

Blue Whiting Focus Group Blue Whiting Focus Group Pelagic RAC Pelagic RAC

Brussels 18th Nov. 2010

ICES Advice ICES Advice Blue Whiting Combined Stock I Blue Whiting Combined Stock I-

• IX,XII & XIV

IX,XII & XIV

MSY = 50,700 to 223,000 t

50,700 to 223,000 t

PA = Zero Management plan = 40,100 t

• Total Agreed TAC 2010: 548,000 t

Total Agreed TAC 2010: 548,000 t

• Coastal States Agreed TAC 2011: 40,100 t

Coastal States Agreed TAC 2011: 40,100 t

Blue Whiting Combined Stock Blue Whiting Combined Stock

I I-

• IX,XII & XIV

IX,XII & XIV

PRAC Recommendations PRAC Recommendations

• No TAC advice

No TAC advice

Instead Instead

• Point out difficulties with assessment

Point out difficulties with assessment

• Highlight at Coastal States meeting

Highlight at Coastal States meeting

• Seek immediate benchmark 2011

Seek immediate benchmark 2011

• Establish PRAC Focus Group with scientists

Establish PRAC Focus Group with scientists

Blue Whiting Combined Stock Blue Whiting Combined Stock

I I-

• IX,XII & XIV

IX,XII & XIV

Major issues Advice: Major issues Advice:

• Huge variations TAC advice

Huge variations TAC advice

Blue Whiting Combined Stock Blue Whiting Combined Stock

I I-

• IX,XII & XIV

IX,XII & XIV

BLUE WHITING IN SUBAREAS I-IX,XII AND XIV - ICES PREDICTED CATCH

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 YEAR ICES PERDICTED CATCH (Tonnes * 1000)

Blue Whiting Combined Stock Blue Whiting Combined Stock

I I-

• IX,XII & XIV

IX,XII & XIV

Major issues Advice: Major issues Advice:

• Huge variations TAC advice

Huge variations TAC advice

• Huge variations Fishing Mortality

Huge variations Fishing Mortality

Blue Whiting Fishing Mortality 3-7 2010 estimate of 2009 F 2010 estimate of 2008 F 2009 estimate of 2008 F

65%

Higher

ICES Advice Last Year ICES Advice Last Year

The estimated SSB for 2008 has been revised upwards by 40% and the estimated fishing mortality in 2007 has been revised downwards by 13%. Around 40% of the change in SSB is due to the greater reliance this year on spawning ground survey results (relaxation of the constraint on survey CV), and the remainder due to the addition of recent data. This Year ICES Advice Compared to last year, the SSB for 2009 is

estimated to be about 42% lower and the fishing mortality in 2008 to be about 65% higher.

Blue Whiting Combined Stock Blue Whiting Combined Stock

I I-

• IX,XII & XIV

IX,XII & XIV

Major issues Advice: Major issues Advice:

• Huge variations TAC advice

Huge variations TAC advice

• Huge variations Fishing Mortality

Huge variations Fishing Mortality

• Assessment Model stakeholders lack

Assessment Model stakeholders lack confidence confidence

• Influence North Atlantic sub polar gyre

Influence North Atlantic sub polar gyre

• One stock ICES 2009b report (?)

One stock ICES 2009b report (?)

Extract ICES Advice 2010

Biology Blue whiting is widely distributed in the eastern part of the North Atlantic with the highest concentrations along the edge of the continental shelf between 300 and 600 m. Most of the spawning takes place along the shelf edge and banks west of the British Isles. Juveniles are abundant in many areas, with the main nursery area believed to be the Norwegian Sea. Recent work on stock identification suggests that there is likely to be more than one single stock in the Northeast Atlantic.

Blue Whiting Combined Stock Blue Whiting Combined Stock

I I-

• IX,XII & XIV

IX,XII & XIV

Major issues Advice: Major issues Advice:

• Huge variations TAC advice

Huge variations TAC advice

• Huge variations Fishing Mortality

Huge variations Fishing Mortality

• Assessment Model stakeholders confidence

Assessment Model stakeholders confidence

• Influence North Atlantic sub polar gyre

Influence North Atlantic sub polar gyre

• One stock ICES 2009b report (?)

One stock ICES 2009b report (?)

• Management Plan cannot cater large

Management Plan cannot cater large fluctuations fluctuations

• Survey problems

Survey problems

• Precautionary fishing mortality = 0.32

Precautionary fishing mortality = 0.32

• Calculation MSY in transition

Calculation MSY in transition

“For stocks for which no long-term plans have yet been proposed, it would be appropriate to move towards MSY by reducing fishing mortality in equal steps from the 2011 fishing year until the 2014 fishing year to Fmsy, and exploiting stocks at Fmsy in 2015 and thereafter. Starting in 2011, this means four equal steps.”

Commission’s Policy Statement

Blue Whiting Combined Stock Blue Whiting Combined Stock

I I-

• IX,XII & XIV

IX,XII & XIV

Major issues Advice: Major issues Advice:

• Huge variations TAC advice

Huge variations TAC advice

• Huge variations Fishing Mortality

Huge variations Fishing Mortality

• One stock ICES 2009b report

One stock ICES 2009b report (?) (?)

• Management Plan cannot cater large fluctuations

Management Plan cannot cater large fluctuations

• Survey problems

Survey problems

• Precautionary fishing mortality = 0.32

Precautionary fishing mortality = 0.32

• Calculation MSY in transition

Calculation MSY in transition

• Basis for no recruitment

Basis for no recruitment

• Catch figures 2009 (?)

Catch figures 2009 (?)

Total Blue Whiting Landings by Country 2009 Tonnes

END