Bloomberg New Energy Finance house view PV will make up 17% of the - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Jan 26, 2024 171 likes •227 views

Bloomberg New Energy Finance house view PV will make up 17% of the worlds electricity supply by 2040 Batteries and PV will get sharply cheaper Solar thermal will barely grow beyond the existing pipeline, as it is too expensive to

SLIDE 1

June 19, 2017

PV will make up 17% of the world’s electricity supply by

2040

Batteries and PV will get sharply cheaper
Solar thermal will barely grow beyond the existing pipeline,

as it is too expensive to compete head to head

Does this likely auction result overturn this conclusion?
We know very little about the specific conditions of the

Dubai auction – is the $94.5/MWh a rate for all MWh, or a base rate with a peak generation premium? What’s the inflation index? How much storage is there? Will it be able to sell grid services as a battery system can? Hoping to learn more from other panelists!

Bloomberg New Energy Finance house view

SLIDE 2

1 June 19, 2017

PV and storage projects

Project Solar:storage Price Delivery year Dubai 200MW Phase IV 8 hours (‘up to 15 hours’) $94.5/MWh? 2021 Kaua’i Island 3.5 hours (28MW PV/ 100MWh) $111/MWh (w/ 30% ITC + Hawaii credit) 2018 Tucson Electric/ NextEra 4 hours “below $45/MWh” w/ ITC 2019

SLIDE 3

2 June 19, 2017

Lithium-ion battery price forecast (2010-30e)

200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 $/kWh

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

SLIDE 4

3 June 19, 2017

PV module prices and learning curve calculations, 2016 $/W

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

0.1 1 10 100 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 historic prices (Maycock) Chinese c-Si module prices (BNEF) Experience curve at 28% Experience curve at 24% 1976 1985 2003 1976 1985 2008 Cumulative capacity (MW) 2015 2017 (estimate)

SLIDE 5

4 June 19, 2017

Hypothetical PV + storage – 2021 project

Assumption Total PV 200MW $0.83/W(DC) $166m Lithium-ion battery 1600MWh $156/kWh $250m Capacity factor 20% Cost of capital 8% equity, 4% debt, no tax Opex $61,000 per MW per year LCOE $115/MWh (inflation adjusted)

> so $94.5/MWh does look good for the Dubai solar thermal