BLOOMBERG NEW ENERGY FINANCE SUMMIT NEW YORK 23 APRIL 2013 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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BLOOMBERG NEW ENERGY FINANCE SUMMIT NEW YORK 23 APRIL 2013 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Jun 22, 2023 369 likes •1k views

BLOOMBERG NEW ENERGY FINANCE SUMMIT NEW YORK 23 APRIL 2013 Michael Liebreich, Chief Executive Bloomberg New Energy Finance Twitter: @miebreich / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT

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MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich

/ / / /

/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /

BLOOMBERG NEW ENERGY FINANCE SUMMIT

NEW YORK 23 APRIL 2013

Bloomberg New Energy Finance Twitter: @miebreich Michael Liebreich, Chief Executive

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MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich

/ / / / AGENDA

  • 3. New Energy ROI
  • 2. Four energy realities
  • 1. Clean energy investment update
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MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich

/ / / /

$269bn

GLOBAL TOTAL NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY, 2004-2012 ($BN)

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: Includes corporate and government R&D, and small distributed capacity. Adjusted for re- invested equity. Does not include proceeds from acquisition transactions

$54bn $80bn $114bn $165bn $191bn $187bn $251bn $302bn 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 +48% +42% +45% +16%

  • 2%

+34% +20%

  • 11%
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MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich

/ / / / GLOBAL RENEWABLE CAPACITY ADDITIONS (GW)

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: “Other renewables” includes marine and geothermal power only.

20 40 60 80 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 Other renewables Biomass & Waste Wind Solar

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MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich

/ / / / CLEAN VS FOSSIL-BASED GENERATING CAPACITY INVESTMENT, 2006–12 ($BN)

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: Clean energy total excludes large hydro. Fossil fuel is investment on coal and gas

  • capacity. We assume capacity retirement of 3.3%/yr for coal and 4%/yr for gas.

Clean energy Fossil fuel

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

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MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich

/ / / / EQUIPMENT SUPPLY AND DEMAND, 2006-2015 (GW)

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: Supply scenarios based on continued 2012 utilisation rates.

SOLAR WIND

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Demand Conservative Optimistic Manufacturing capacity 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Manufacturing capacity Demand

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MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich

/ / / /

Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-1

  • 100

200 300 400 500 600 700 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-1

NEX CLEAN ENERGY INDEX 2003 – 2013 YTD

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: Values as of 10 April 2013; NASDAQ and S&P 500 rebased to 100 on 01 Jan 2003

  • 100

200 300 400 500 600 700

Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13

S&P 500 NASDAQ NEX

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MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich

/ / / / NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY BY REGION, 2004- 2012 ($BN)

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: Excludes corporate and government R&D

7.1 14.2 28.9 40.8 39.0 27.1 41.8 63.1 40.3 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 North America & Caribbean 0.8 3.5 5.4 11.1 14.5 10.3 12.9 9.9 10.0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Central & South America 18.0 28.5 36.5 58.4 70.7 73.2 97.8 108.0 75.8 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Europe 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.5 2.7 1.6 4.9 4.2 11.8 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Middle East & Africa 9.5 15.2 22.4 30.6 39.9 47.3 66.8 87.1 100.7 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Asia & Oceania
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MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich

/ / / /

Pictures: Bloomberg

I’m going to renew the wind Production Tax Credit! Solyndra! Solyndra! Solyndra! US 2012 – THE CLEAN ENERGY ELECTION

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MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich

/ / / / US ANNUAL CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT AND CAPACITY ADDITIONS, 2004-2012

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

TOTAL INVESTMENT, $BN CAPACITY, GW

10.6 17.1 32.1 43.3 42.9 32.4 42.5 65.2 44.2

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

  • 32%

0.6 2.0 3.1 5.7 9.6 11.3 5.6 8.7 17.4

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Other renewables Biomass & waste Solar Wind

+100%

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MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich

/ / / /

5 10 15 20

Oct-2005 Oct-2006 Oct-2007 Oct-2008 Oct-2009 Oct-2010 Oct-2011 Oct-2012

Henry Hub

HENRY HUB GAS PRICE ($/MMBTU)

Source: Bloomberg Terminal

Summit 2012 $2.21/MMBtu Summit 2013 $4.26/MMBtu (+130%)

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MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich

/ / / / EUROPEAN CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP SPREADS, 2009-12

Source: Bloomberg Terminal

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Dec 09 Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec 12

Portugal Italy Spain France Netherlands Germany UK Sweden Finland Norway

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MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich

/ / / / EUROPE - POLICY UNCERTAINTY

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

Retroactive changes Unplanned reduction

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MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich

/ / / / TOP 15 COUNTRIES FOR NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY IN 2012 AND % CHANGE ON 2011 ($BN)

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: Excludes corporate and government R&D 2.95 3.42 4.05 4.31 4.41 5.34 5.46 6.19 6.85 8.34 14.71 16.28 22.80 35.58 65.13

  • 68%

179% 11%

  • 34%
  • 23%
  • 32%

20563% 40%

  • 45%
  • 17%
  • 51%

75%

  • 27%
  • 37%

20% Spain Greece Belgium France Canada Brazil South Africa Australia India United Kingdom Italy Japan Germany United States China

65.13

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MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich

/ / / / SUPPLY CHAIN CONSOLIDATION

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MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich

/ / / / NEW ENERGY REALITIES

Unconventional oil and gas Unpredictability Improving energy intensity Cheap clean energy

1. 2. 3. 4.

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5 10 15 20 25 30 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Rest of US Eagle Ford Marcellus Haynesville Woodford Fayetteville Barnett

US SHALE GAS PRODUCTION (BCF PER DAY)

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, US EIA, UK DECC, China Customs, BP Statistical Review

Qatar China UK

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MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich

/ / / / US PROJECTED NET IMPORTS OF NATURAL GAS, 2008-20

TRILLION CUBIC FEET

Source: US EIA Annual Energy Outlook, 2010-2013; Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: 2013 figures show Early Release

  • 4
  • 3
  • 2
  • 1

1 2 3 4 5 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

2010 Historical

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MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich

/ / / / US PROJECTED NET IMPORTS OF NATURAL GAS, 2008-20

TRILLION CUBIC FEET

Source: US EIA Annual Energy Outlook, 2010-2013; Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: 2013 figures show Early Release

  • 4
  • 3
  • 2
  • 1

1 2 3 4 5 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

2010 2011 Historical

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MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich

/ / / / US PROJECTED NET IMPORTS OF NATURAL GAS, 2008-20

TRILLION CUBIC FEET

Source: US EIA Annual Energy Outlook, 2010-2013; Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: 2013 figures show Early Release

  • 4
  • 3
  • 2
  • 1

1 2 3 4 5 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

2010 2011 2012 Historical

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MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich

/ / / / US PROJECTED NET IMPORTS OF NATURAL GAS, 2008-20

TRILLION CUBIC FEET

Source: US EIA Annual Energy Outlook, 2010-2013; Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: 2013 figures show Early Release

  • 4
  • 3
  • 2
  • 1

1 2 3 4 5 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

2010 2011 2012 2013 Historical

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MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich

/ / / / MAJOR GLOBAL SHALE FIELDS

Source: EIA Assessment of World Shale Gas Resources, April 2011 Note: Technically recoverable shale gas resources shown

Canada Brazil Poland Norway China Australia South Africa 200 trillion cubic feet USA Mexico Libya Algeria Argentina

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MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich

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The extraordinary windfall, which is completely God-given, that this country has got is shale gas.

UK SHALE GAS Owen Paterson UK Environment Secretary

Picture: Getty Images

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MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich

/ / / / AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND, 2005–2022

Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance

0.8 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.5 180 200 220 240 260 280 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 GDP Historical Oct 2010

TWh AUD trillion

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MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich

/ / / / AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND, 2005–2022

Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance

0.8 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.5 180 200 220 240 260 280 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 GDP Historical Oct 2010

TWh AUD trillion

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MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich

/ / / / AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND, 2005–2022

Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance

0.8 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.5 180 200 220 240 260 280 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 GDP Historical Oct 2010 Sept 2011

TWh AUD trillion

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MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich

/ / / / AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND, 2005–2022

Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance

0.8 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.5 180 200 220 240 260 280 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 GDP Historical Oct 2010 Sept 2011

TWh AUD trillion

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MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich

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0.8 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.5 180 200 220 240 260 280 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND, 2005–2022

Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance

TWh AUD trillion

GDP Historical Oct 2010 Sept 2011 Jun 2012

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MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich

/ / / / US NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND, 1990–2035

Source: EIA, Bloomberg New Energy Finance

TWh TWh USD trn

Feb 2005 GDP 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Historical

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MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich

/ / / / US NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND, 1990–2035

TWh

Source: EIA, Bloomberg New Energy Finance

TWh USD trn

Feb 2005 Feb 2007 GDP 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Historical

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MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich

/ / / / US NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND, 1990–2035

TWh

Source: EIA, Bloomberg New Energy Finance

TWh USD trn

Feb 2005 Feb 2007 GDP 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Historical

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MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich

/ / / / US NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND, 1990–2035

TWh

Source: EIA, Bloomberg New Energy Finance

TWh USD trn

Dec 2009 Feb 2005 Feb 2007 GDP 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Historical

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MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich

/ / / / US NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND, 1990–2035

TWh

Source: EIA, Bloomberg New Energy Finance

TWh USD trn

Dec 2009 Apr 2011 Feb 2005 Feb 2007 GDP 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Historical

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MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich

/ / / / US NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND, 1990–2035

TWh

Source: EIA, Bloomberg New Energy Finance

TWh USD trn

Dec 2009 Apr 2011 Dec 2012 Feb 2005 Feb 2007 GDP 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Historical

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MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich

/ / / /

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011

US CAR USE AND FUEL EFFICIENCY

Source: US Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration; University

  • f Michigan Transportation Research Institute; Bloomberg New Energy Finance

Note: Total vehicle miles grew at 2.7% CAGR between 1971 and 2007

Total vehicle miles travelled (tm/year) Fuel efficiency of new cars (mpg, sales weighted average)

20 21 22 23 24 25 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 +3.7% CAGR since 2007

  • 0.5%

CAGR since 2007

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MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich

/ / / / NET OIL AND GAS IMPORT DEPENDENCY, 2010 - 2035

(% of consumption)

Source: IEA

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Oil

Gas

United States China India European Union Japan

2010 2035

  • 20%
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MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich

/ / / /

0.1 1 10 100 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000

1976 2000 2006 2012 2012 1985

Cumulative capacity, MW Crystalline silicon Thin-film

PV EXPERIENCE CURVE, 1976-2012 2012 ($/W)

Source: Paul Maycock, Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: Prices inflation indexed to US PPI.

PV MODULE PRICES HAVE FALLEN 80% SINCE 2008 20% IN 2012

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MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich

/ / / /

14% Global Denmark and Germany 1984 1990 2000 2004 2011 10 50 100 500 1000 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 Cumulative capacity, MW

AVERAGE LEVELISED COST OF ONSHORE WIND, 1984- 2012 (€/MWH)

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, ExTool Note: Learning curve (blue line) is least square regression: R2 = 0.88 and 14% learning rate.

WIND TURBINE PRICES HAVE FALLEN 29% SINCE 2008

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MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich

/ / / /

2015 2020 2030 H1 2012 - $689/kWh H2 2012 - $638/kWh 1995 2000 2005 10 100 1,000 10,000 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000

Battery cost ($/kWh)

Cumulative production capacity (MWh)

EV Li-ion battery cost forecast (BNEF) Consumer Li-ion battery experience curve EV Li-ion battery prices, historical Consumer Li-ion battery prices, historical

LITHIUM-ION BATTERY EXPERIENCE CURVE

Source: Battery University, MIIT, IIT, Bloomberg New Energy Finance

Cost-competitiveness

(on total ownership basis)

EV BATTERY PRICES HAVE FALLEN 37% SINCE H1 2011

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MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich

/ / / /

POWER GENERATION CAPACITY ASSET FINANCE (GREMO – NEW NORMAL)

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2006 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Marine Solar thermal Small-scale PV Solar PV Offshore wind Wind EfW Biomass Geothermal Hydro Nuclear Oil Gas Coal

Note:

  • 1. All $bn figures are nominal assuming a 2% annual rate of inflation
  • 2. EfW is energy from waste Small-scale PV includes commercial and residential scale rooftop PV.

$bn (nominal)

Clean energy asset investment will be $630bn in 2030 – 73% of total

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MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich

/ / / /

2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 200,000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Renewable Energy (excl. hydro) Hydro Nuclear Traditional biomass Fossil IEA WEO 2012

TOTAL PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

TWh Mtoe

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MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich

/ / / /

If we look at things like renewable wind, solar, biofuels, we have those sources over the next 30 years growing 700 to 800 percent. But in the year 2040, they’ll supply just 1 percent.”

Rex Tillerson CEO, ExxonMobil March 2013

PREDICTION

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MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich

/ / / /

The world of energy is facing a period of unprecedented uncertainty

Fatih Birol Chief Economist, IEA UNCERTAINTY

Picture: Mikhail Evstafiev, Wikimedia

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MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich

/ / / / NEW ENERGY ROI

RESILIENCE OPTIONALITY INTELLIGENCE

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MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich

/ / / / NEW ENERGY ROI – RESILIENCE

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

Ask: “What is the worst that can happen?” Don’t ask: “What is the expected outcome?”

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MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich

/ / / / “TRADITIONAL” THREATS

ACCIDENTS NATURAL DISASTERS GEOPOLITICS

SECURITY

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MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich

/ / / / NEW THREATS – CYBERSECURITY

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MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich

/ / / / CHINA THERMAL POWER GENERATION VERSUS WATER SCARCITY BY PROVINCE, 2010

Water deficit Severe scarcity Moderate scarcity No scarcity Freshwater scarcity rating: 100TWh

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MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich

/ / / / CHINA THERMAL POWER GENERATION VERSUS WATER SCARCITY BY PROVINCE, 2030

Water deficit Severe scarcity Moderate scarcity No scarcity Freshwater scarcity rating: 100TWh

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MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich

/ / / / MAJOR GLOBAL SHALE FIELDS

Source: EIA Assessment of World Shale Gas Resources, April 2011 Note: Technically recoverable shale gas resources shown

Canada Brazil Poland Norway China Australia South Africa 200 trillion cubic feet USA Mexico Libya Algeria Argentina

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MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich

/ / / / MAJOR GLOBAL SHALE FIELDS – WATER STRESS

Source: Shale gas resources: EIA Assessment of World Shale Gas Resources, April 2011; Water Stress: UNEP, Bloomberg New Energy Finance

Canada Brazil Poland China Australia South Africa 200 trillion cubic feet Libya Algeria Argentina USA

Note: Technically recoverable shale gas resources shown

Norway Mexico

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MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich

/ / / / SOCIAL ACCEPTABILITY – FRACKING, TAR SANDS

Source: Wikimedia commons

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MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich

/ / / / STUDENT FOSSIL FUEL DIVESTMENT MOVEMENT

Picture: gofossilfree.org, US Navy

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MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich

/ / / / CLIMATE CHANGE

Image: Bloomberg Businessweek

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MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich

/ / / / NEW ENERGY ROI – OPTIONALITY

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

…options have extraordinary value In times of volatility…

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MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich

/ / / /

  • Capital light
  • Low leverage
  • Structured finance
  • Conditional commitments
  • Hedging
  • Guarantees
  • Option pricing

OPTIONALITY – SO WHERE ARE THESE OPTIONS?

  • Energy efficiency
  • Power storage
  • Demand management
  • Interconnection
  • Fuel flexibility
  • Mini-grids
  • CCS readiness
  • Natural hedges
  • Dual sourcing
  • Market diversification
  • Sector diversification
  • Value chain diversification
  • R&D
  • Coalitions

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

TECHNOLOGY OPTIONS OPERATIONAL OPTIONS FINANCIAL OPTIONS

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MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich

/ / / / $48 billion $1.5 billion OPTIONALITY – INVESTOR EXAMPLE

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MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich

/ / / / NEW ENERGY ROI - INTELLIGENCE

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

Are you surfing or drowning? A tsunami of information –

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MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich

/ / / / INTELLIGENCE

  • Smart grid
  • Internet of things
  • Pervasive sensors
  • Automated optimisation
  • Big data
  • Consumer behaviour
  • Market intelligence
  • Talent management

MACHINE INTELLIGENCE HUMAN INTELLIGENCE

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MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich

/ / / /

  • Efficiency
  • Network
  • Responsiveness
  • Demand management
  • Coalitions
  • Data sharing
  • R&D budget

Photos: Wikimedia Commons

  • Scale
  • Centralisation
  • Baseload-plus-peak
  • Dispatch management
  • Vertical integration
  • Confidentiality
  • Defence budget

DINOSAUR HEURISTICS MAMMAL HEURISTICS

NEW ENERGY ROI

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MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich

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