“Be Careful What You Wish For” Wyoming Energy Summit: Powering Future Generations Richard A. Horner Director Special Projects and Emerging technology May 8, 2019
Presentation Overview ‘Be Careful What You Wish For!” • Current Market reality for Energy Supply • Energy Outlook for USA • Implications of Growth in Electric vehicles • Mismatches in Supply & Demand • Energy Poverty Impacts • Lateral Thinking Needed - what ever your posture on the energy future • The complex future energy picture & the need to re-prioritize technology needs. • Opportunities for Wyoming
Outlook is for Clean Energy to Prevail…. Energy systems – transmission, distribution and supply in general will increasingly be stressed
Energy Outlook is for flat demand and incremental move towards clean energy is assumed by many agencies…
The Emerging Wildcard that is Starting to Disrupt Energy Supply Thinking Electric Vehicle Forecast Uptake
Note – Incentives are accelerating Uptake of EV’s
Worth Recognizing • The U.S. electric grid has continually evolved to accommodate new demands throughout the last century. • But if the nation’s vehicles were to rapidly become electric, the grid would need to change faster and adjust to demand response needs too. • Reality is this is not happening sufficiently • Depending on local driving habits, population and the grid infrastructure that’s already in place, EVs will have different impacts in different regions. • Noticeably where electric vehicles are taking off, the grid is already stressed with supply reliability concerns
Implications on Technology Needs • High Volume Energy Storage to Address Changes in peak demand for electricity and consumer behavior change. • Permits existing excess supply capacity to match demand forecasts • Growth is electricity generation and supply must be met • Uptake of this growth in electricity demand solely by renewable is unlikely ( both economically and technically) • Integration of renewable energy into existing infrastructure systems needs to be overcome • Reliance on fossil energy (Clean) likely to grow in some regions as there is not sun and wind everywhere. • Good for the existing fleet • Motivation to Integrate transmission and distribution of electricity across US. has never been higher.
Implications on Electricity Generation & Supply • Increasing demand for electricity at night – when most of these vehicles will be on charge, after running a full day. • Typically increase a house’s power consumption by 50% or more. • Solar and Wind either ineffective or inefficient at night: the mismatch between supply and demand of electricity will exacerbate. • Accelerated demand for electric vehicles will require reliable and high volume base-load electricity generation sources that can operate at night. Base-load electricity 24/7, will increasingly become paramount. • Unless drastic changes and improvements to electricity transmission and distribution are forthcoming (e.g. integration of renewables and the building of this capacity fast enough), there will be an increasing need to sustain the fossil fuel power generation fleet and even building new capacity.
Market Implications (Examples) • California and Texas are lightening rods as thy consume more energy than any other state. • If virtually all passenger cars in Texas were electrified today, the state would need approximately 110 more terawatt-hours of electricity per year; some 30 percent increase over current consumption in Texas… 5 fossil powered plant equivalent. • California would need to generate an additional 120 terawatt-hours of electricity per year…. 5 to 6 fossil powered plant equivalent To meet that demand, California and Texas would need to build new power plants or buy more electricity from neighboring states than they already do. (A typical fossil-energy based power plant is say 600MW Generation Capacity)
How Might Wyoming Take Advantage • Focus on Clean Electricity – renewable and clean coal • Invest in high volume energy storage solutions • Ensure integration of electricity supply into the wider US. infrastructure schemes. Finally…. The need to generate clean electricity will not go away. Electric Vehicles could destroy of fix the US electricity Grid Forever ! • Matching existing supply with demand would be a good start
Q&A For More Information: Richard A. Horner Director, Special Projects & Emerging Technology School of Energy Resources University of Wyoming Laramie, WY rhorner@uwyo.edu Ph: (307) 766-4301 Cell: (307) 760-6642
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