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A vision of hope for a world in transition Jonas Salks wish was - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
A vision of hope for a world in transition Jonas Salks wish was - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
A vision of hope for a world in transition Jonas Salks wish was Jonas Salks wish was that his ideas would that his ideas would continue to be disseminated continue to be disseminated so that, like a vaccine, they so that, like a
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JONAS SALK 1954
Jonas Salk’s wish was that his ideas would continue to be disseminated so that, like a vaccine, they might have the most positive effect on the greatest number of people.
JONAS SALK 1954
Jonas Salk’s wish was that his ideas would continue to be disseminated so that, like a vaccine, they might have the most positive effect on the greatest number of people.
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Sigmoid Curves
part one
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In this essay, the sigmoid curv as a “thinking tool” and as a s refmects a pattern that applie living systems and refmects character of change in our time.
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In the fjrst, upturned portion of the curve, population growth follows a pattern of acceleration;
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in the second part, growth decelerate a plateau is reached.
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The gap in the curve empha the point of infmection change from accelera decelerating growth.
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Fruit Fly
DROSOPHILA MELANOGASTER
250 200 150 100 50 number of flies 8 12 16 20 24 28 2 6 10 14 april mayDROSOPHILA MELANOGASTER
250 200 150 100 50
number of flies8 12 16 20 24 28 2 6 10 14
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World Population Trends
part two
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From the beginning of the Common Era, the size of the human population grew gradually for about 16 centuries and then with increasing speed through the nineteenth century. The gradual but progressive acceleration was followed by a sudden steep rise in the twentieth century—a consequence of the scientifjc- technological-industrial-agricultural revolutions, which have had the efgect
- f making it possible to sustain a human
population far larger than ever before.
A.D. 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 world population in billions CURRENT WORLD POPULATION IS 7.4 BILLION7 CURRENT WORLD POPULATION IS 7.4 BILLION 6 5 4 3 2 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 A.D.
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The sharp increase in the size of human population in r raises the reasonable que Will the curve continue to rise at its present r
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Will it crash?
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Or will it bend and a a sigmoid shape?
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12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
world population in billions
1850 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 2110
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12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
world population in billions
1850 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 2110
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Why does population growth slow?
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11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 6000 BCE 4000 BCE 2000 BCE 2000 CE 4000 CE 6000 CE 8000 CE 10,000 CE
word population in billions percent increase per year
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A New Epoch
part three
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epoch a epoch b
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epoch a epoch b
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a b no limits consumption waste limits conservation sustainability
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competition independence power collaboration interdependence consensus a b
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persistent expansion dynamic equilibrium a b
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either/or win-lose both/and win-win a b
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Paradox and Conf lict
part four
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epoch a epoch b pragmatic
- r
humane pragmatic and humane
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Generosity serves Self-Interest
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a values b values b values a values
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Resolution and Integration
part five
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In this critical period, we are responsible for guiding
- ur society and our species
to a new equilibrium.
In this critical period, we are responsible for guiding
- ur society and our species
to a new equilibrium.
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material value human value
- r
and
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consumption conservation
- r
sustainability
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Energy Transitions
carbon intensive fossil fuels
. . ..
low/zero carbon solar/wind
a b
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Utility Model
central command top down
. . ..
distributed collaborative
a b
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Transportation Transitions
individual use not connected.
. ..
shared use networked autonomous
a b
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extract/use/discard degenerative linear
.
re-use/recycle regenerative circular
a b
Sustainable Economic Transformation
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Planetary Community Social/Political/Economic Individual International Family Work Molecular/Cellular
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to be created known
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We are at a point in the course of human social evolution when the demands of survival converge with the higher ideals of humankind and the well-being and flourishing of human
- society. It is up to us to
see that we navigate this transition, adapting to and emerging in a new reality.
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