Avdo Niksic Nick Managing Director Asia Pacific & India - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

▶
avdo niksic nick managing director asia pacific india
SMART_READER_LITE
LIVE PREVIEW

Avdo Niksic Nick Managing Director Asia Pacific & India - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Aug 02, 2023 143 likes •463 views

ISSUES AND CHALLENGES FACING THE PLASTICS INDUSTRY, An Exclusive Seminar for MPMA Members 26 th February 2013 Venue: Conference Room, MPMA, Petaling Jaya Raw Materials Present and Future Regional/World Capacities and Trends Avdo Niksic

slide-1
SLIDE 1

ISSUES AND CHALLENGES FACING THE PLASTICS INDUSTRY, An Exclusive Seminar for MPMA Members 26th February 2013 Venue: Conference Room, MPMA, Petaling Jaya Raw Materials – Present and Future Regional/World Capacities and Trends Avdo Niksic – Nick Managing Director – Asia Pacific & India ChemOrbis aniksic@chemorbis.com

slide-2
SLIDE 2

About ChemOrbis

  • Platform dedicated to plastics since 2001
  • Neutral and impartial
  • Hosting global and refined community
  • Offering complementary services

 Dynamic Market Intelligence  Handy Analysis Tools  Flexible Trading Tools  Ideal Advertising Media  International Events & Conferences  Plastics Industry Almanac Releases

slide-3
SLIDE 3

Offices

slide-4
SLIDE 4

Global and Refined Community

Breakdown by Geography Breakdown by Type

Americas 20% Asia 32% Europe 28% ISC 8% MEA 11% ROW 1% Other 31% Plastic End Product Manufacturer 60% Polymer Producer 1% Polymer Trader/Dist. 8%

The value proposition of ChemOrbis grows as the size and quality of our community grows.

slide-5
SLIDE 5

Coverage

Geographical Product

  • We cover all key spot markets

(reacting faster to market developments)

China

SEA/India

Turkey

Egypt

Italy

  • Coverage will soon be

expanded to cover Americas, NWE, Russia, GCC and Africa.

  • We cover commodity polymers

i.e. PE, PP, PVC, PS, PET, ABS

  • As well as their feedstocks and

monomers i.e. crude oil, naphtha, ethylene, propylene, VCM, styrene.

  • Also machinery and equipment,

molds, professional services like logistics, transportation, customs clearance are supported on our trading platforms.

slide-6
SLIDE 6

CO is In-depth & Diversified

5000 Sources 250,000 Prices

56% 7% 37% Converter Producer Trader/Distributor 32% 22% 46% Converter Producer Trader/Distributor All types (producers, traders, converters) + All sizes = remarkable crosscheck ability

slide-7
SLIDE 7

World’s Polymers Barometers

(Italy End Oct 2012)

5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Turkey Italy China

slide-8
SLIDE 8

Different market dynamics

0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00 140.00 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13

Crude Oil (e)' (dollars per barrel) Natural Gas Wellhead' (dollars per thousand cubic feet) Coal' (dollars per million Btu)

slide-9
SLIDE 9

US PE and PVC exports 2000-2012

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 PE PVC 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

slide-10
SLIDE 10

USA capacity expansions

January-February Westlake Cracker 565 USA Expansion shutdown 60 d Capacity of Petro-2 cracker will be expanded by 105,000 tons/year during the maintenance that started on Jan 10. The original shutdown date was Q4, 2012. Expansion to be completed by H2 February. 2015 Westlake Cracker 545 USA Delayed Expansion Expansion at Lake Charles, LA. Expansion delayed from 2013 to 2015 Mid- 2014 Westlake Ethylene 285 US Expansion The company will add more than 90,000 tons/year of ethylene production capacity to reach around 300,000 tons/year in line with the conversion of its Calvert City, Kentucky steam cracker to ethane feedstock from propane End 2012 Dow Cracker 390 USA Restart of idled cracker Restart of idled cracker at St. Charles, LA April -June 2012 BASF-Total Cracker 60 USA Expansion 50 d Plant will shut April 18, 2012 for expansion by 60,000 t/y. Q3 2013 Williams Cracker 272 USA Expansion Debottleneck at Geismar, LA End 2013 Ineos Cracker 115 USA Expansion Debottleneck at Chocolate Bayou, TX 2014 Westlake Cracker 113 USA Expansion Expansion at Lake Charles, LA 2013-2014 LyondellBasell Cracker 227 USA Expansion Expansion planned at Channelview, TX 2014 LyondellBasell Cracker 386 USA Expansion Expansion at Laporte, TX Q1 2013 - Q2 2015 Williams Cracker Canada Start up The company will build olefin processing facilities with 11,000-12,000 b/d ethane, ethylene, propane and propylene capacities by Q2 2015

June 2015 Braskem/ Grupo Idesa Cracker 1 mil Mexico Start up Contract awarded in Oct 2012 for the Ethylene XXI petchem complex 2016 ExxonMobil Cracker 1.5 mil USA Start up Ethylene cracker in Baytown is expected to start up in 2016. 2016 Formosa Plastics Cracker 800 USA Start up New cracker at Point Comfort, TX 2016 OxyChem Ethylene 544 USA Start up Contract awarded in Oct 2012 for a new ethane cracker 2016-2017 Dow Cracker World scale USA Start up Company plans expansions and 1 new cracker to increase capacity by 2.3 mil tons/yr by 2017 2016-2017 Shell Chemical Cracker World scale USA Start up Company is assessing where to locate a new complex using Marcellus Shale 2017 Dow Chemical Cracker World scale USA Start up World scale ethylene cracker will be built in Texas. Q1 2017 Chevron Phillips Chemical Cracker 1.5 million USA Start up New ethane cracker at its Cedar Bayou complex in Texas. After 2017 Sasol Cracker 1-1.4 mil USA Start up Ethane cracker planned for Lake Charles, LA. Feasibility study will be completed by 2H 2013

slide-11
SLIDE 11

Shale Gas: A growing global energy source

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600

Technically Recoverable Shale Gas Resources (tcf) Proved Natural Gas Reserves

Source: EIA

slide-12
SLIDE 12
slide-13
SLIDE 13
slide-14
SLIDE 14

Forecast

  • 3
  • 2
  • 1

1 2 3 4 5 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 2008-Q1 2009-Q1 2010-Q1 2011-Q1 2012-Q1 2013-Q1 2014-Q1

World Liquid Fuels Supply and Demand Balance

million barrels per day

Implied stock change and balance (right axis) World supply (left axis) World demand (left axis) Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2013

slide-15
SLIDE 15

Location

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Bab el_Mandab

4.6 4.5 2.9 2.7 3.4

Turkish Straits

2.7 2.7 2.8 2.9 N/A

Danish Straits

3.2 2.8 3.0 3.0 N/A

Strait of Hormuz 16.7 17.5 15.7 15.9 17.0

Panama Canal

0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8

Crude Oil

0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1

Petroleum Products

0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6

Suez Canal and SUMED Pipeline

4.7 4.6 3.0 3.1 3.8

Suez Crude Oil

1.3 1.2 0.6 0.7 0.8

Suez Petroleum Products

1.1 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4

SUMED Crude Oil

2.4 2.1 1.2 1.1 1.7

Volume of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products Transported Through World Chokepoints, 2007-2011

slide-16
SLIDE 16

Middle East Pipelines

slide-17
SLIDE 17

Cumulative China Imports

2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

slide-18
SLIDE 18

200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Monthly China Imports

slide-19
SLIDE 19

China Imports by product

2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 PVC PS PP PET PE ABS

slide-20
SLIDE 20

China versus SEA versus India

10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 China India SEA

slide-21
SLIDE 21

Top 10 Exporters to China

YEAR 2009 YEAR 2008 YEAR 2007 YEAR 2006 Exporter Qty (KT) Exporter Qty (KT) Exporter Qty (KT) Exporter Qty (KT) South Korea 3,694

1 SAME

South Korea 2,941

1 SAME

South Korea 2,962

1 SAME

South Korea 2,895 Taiwan 2,703

2 SAME

Taiwan 2,421

2 SAME

Taiwan 2,782

2 SAME

Taiwan 2,646 United States 1,792

6 UP

Japan 927

3 SAME

Japan 1,227

3 SAME

Japan 1,193 Saudi Arabia 1,298

5 UP

Singapore 905

4 SAME

Singapore 973

4 SAME

Singapore 962 Japan 1,284

3 DOWN

Saudi Arabia 764

6 UP

United States 887

8 UP

Saudi Arabia 948 Singapore 904

4 DOWN

United States 720

5 DOWN

Saudi Arabia 803

5 DOWN

Thailand 767 Thailand 716

7 SAME

Thailand 649

7 SAME

Thailand 645

6 DOWN

Malaysia 590 Malaysia 582

8 SAME

Malaysia 474

8 SAME

Malaysia 469

7 DOWN

United States 551 Iran 555

#N/A NEW

Hong Kong 273

9 SAME

Hong Kong 344

10 UP

India 396 Brazil 325

#N/A NEW

Canada 229

10 SAME

Canada 240

#N/A NEW

Hong Kong 321 Grand Total 13,853 Grand Total 10,304 Grand Total 11,333 Grand Total 11,269

Top 10 accounts for 81%

  • f all imports

Top 10 accounts for 88%

  • f all imports

Top 10 accounts for 88%

  • f all imports

Top 10 accounts for 88%

  • Prev. Year
  • Prev. Year
  • Prev. Year

YEAR 2012 YEAR 2011 YEAR 2010 Exporter

Qty (KT)

Exporter Qty (KT) Exporter Qty (KT)

South Korea 2,910

1 SAME

South Korea 2,928

1 SAME

South Korea 3,239

1 SAME

Saudi Arabia 2,380

3 UP

Taiwan 2,235

2 SAME

Taiwan 2,622

2 SAME

Taiwan 2,240

2 DOWN

Saudi Arabia 2,104

3 SAME

Saudi Arabia 1,904

4 UP

Thailand 1,207

4 SAME

Thailand 1,097

8 UP

United States 1,239

3 DOWN

Iran 1,152

9 UP

United States 1,040

4 DOWN

Japan 1,157

5 SAME

United Arab Emirates 971

8 UP

Japan 901

5 DOWN

Singapore 945

6 SAME

Singapore 956

7 SAME

Singapore 877

6 DOWN

Iran 870

9 UP

United States 896

5 DOWN

United Arab Emirates 815

10 UP

Thailand 843

7 DOWN

Japan 706

6 DOWN

Iran 800

7 DOWN

Malaysia 495

8 DOWN

India 407

#N/A NEW

Qatar 423

#N/A NEW

United Arab Emirates 274

#N/A NEW

Grand Total

13,826

Grand Total

13,220

Grand Total

13,589

Top 10 accounts for 85%

  • f all imports

Top 10 accounts for 84%

  • f all imports

Top 10 accounts for 84%

  • f all imports
  • Prev. Year
  • Prev. Year
  • Prev. Year
slide-22
SLIDE 22

SEA Exports to China

200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 Thailand Singapore Malaysia Indonesia Philippines Vietnam 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

slide-23
SLIDE 23

Crude oil – monomers - polymers

slide-24
SLIDE 24

China SEA Imports HDPE Film

slide-25
SLIDE 25

SEA local HDPE Film

slide-26
SLIDE 26

HDPE – LLDPE - LDPE

slide-27
SLIDE 27

HDPE – LLDPE - LDPE

slide-28
SLIDE 28

Ethylene - HDPE

slide-29
SLIDE 29

China SEA Local PPH

slide-30
SLIDE 30

…Q & A

CHEMORBIS CHINA

  • No. 338, West Nanjing Road,

Tian An Center, 7F, Unit 706 Shanghai, P.R. China, 200003 Phone: +86 (21) 6327 1212 Fax: +86 (21) 5375 1291 Email: cochina@chemorbis.com

CHEMORBIS MALAYSIA

Suite B-11-01, Plaza Mont Kiara No 2, Jalan Kiara, Mont Kiara Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia 50480 Phone: +60 (3) 6203 9717 Fax:+60 (3) 6203 9769 Email:comalaysia@chemorbis.com

CHEMORBIS TURKEY

Ataturk Caddesi, Seref Yazgan Is Merkezi, No:72, K: 6 Kozyatagi Istanbul, Turkey 34736 Phone: +90 (216) 468 10 25 (pbx) Fax: +90 (216) 360 57 88 Email:coturkey@chemorbis.com

CHEMORBIS ITALY

Via La Spezia 1 20142 Milano - Italy Phone: +39 (02) 8941 5593 Fax:+39 (02) 8941 5587 Email:coitaly@chemorbis.com

CHEMORBIS EGYPT

21 Ebbad El Rahman St. Sheraton Area, Cairo, Egypt Phone:+20 (2) 226 81 485 Fax:+20 (2) 226 81 485 Email:coegypt@chemorbis.com

CHEMORBIS USA

856 Sunflower Circle Weston Florida 33327 United States Phone: +1 (754) 581 8622 Fax: +1 (754) 581 8622 Email:cousa@chemorbis.com

CHEMORBIS RUSSIA

9 Universitetsky prospekt Moscow, 119296, Russia Phone: 8(495) 938 00 Email:corussia@chemorbis.com

THANK YOU...