Assessing the poten,al impacts of developments on fish in marine - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Assessing the poten,al impacts of developments on fish in marine - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Assessing the poten,al impacts of developments on fish in marine protected areas: balancing propor,onality, precau,on and pragma,sm Nicola Teague IFM Marine and Estuarine Specialist Conference 2018 - Lancaster Marine plans Marine Plans


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Assessing the poten,al impacts of developments on fish in marine protected areas: balancing propor,onality, precau,on and pragma,sm Nicola Teague

IFM Marine and Estuarine Specialist Conference 2018 - Lancaster

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SLIDE 2

Marine plans

  • Marine Plans developed for each UK

administra6on

  • Scotland
  • Wales (Dra;)
  • England
  • 11 areas
  • Includes inshore (0-12 nau6cal

miles) & offshore (12-c200 nau6cal miles) areas

  • Cross-border interac6ons
  • Common visions:
  • Clean, healthy, safe, produc6ve &

biologically diverse oceans & seas

  • Sustainable Development and

Sustainable Management of Natural Resources

  • Point of reference for planning & licensing

decisions

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SLIDE 3

Developments in the marine environment

  • Marine planning sector policies – planning sector

development & growth in a sustainable manner

  • Sea fisheries
  • Aquaculture
  • Oil & Gas
  • Energy – Low carbon
  • Offshore Wind & Marine Renewable

Energy

  • Recreation & Tourism
  • Shipping, Ports & Harbours
  • Submarine Cables
  • Defence
  • Aggregates
  • Dredging & Disposal
  • Surface water & wastewater treatment &

disposal

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SLIDE 4

Risk-based, proportionate & sound science

  • Consistent key terms throughout all plans which influence how growth in the sectors

will be managed & assessed:

  • Risk-based
  • Proportionate to risk of activity, spatial scale & location
  • Precautionary
  • Sound science
  • Relevant evidence of appropriate quality
  • Adaptive management – deploy & monitor
  • Ecosystem approach
  • Evidence of uncertainty
  • Multiple & cumulative impacts
  • ‘Proportionate, consistent & integrated decision making through implementing

forward-looking policies as part of a plan-lead, precautionary, risk-based & adaptive approach to managing Welsh seas’

  • ‘Reliance on precaution should be minimised by best use of evidence. A high level of

precaution may be appropriate….sensitive or vulnerable habitats & species.’

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SLIDE 5

Fisheries impact assessments

  • EIA
  • HRA
  • WFD
  • Eels Regula0ons
  • Marine Permi8ng & Consen0ng
  • MCZ assessment
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Sound science, propor.onate to risk of ac.vity

  • Qualita've, expert judgement, semi-quan'ta've, quan'ta've
  • What species are at risk, are they designated?
  • What is the scale & loca'on of the pressure?
  • Will the fish encounter the pressure & be impacted?
  • What is the risk of the impact e.g. disturbance, mortality, reduced survival, impacts on

reproduc've success etc.?

  • Is there sound evidence on which to make an assessment?
  • Is the pressure & its impacts well defined or is it based on a novel sector?
  • Is there a risk to the stock/popula'on level?
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Robust evidence

Encounter probability Interaction probability Impact severity Mortality rate

  • No. of individuals lost
  • Data/evidence requirements;
  • Is there empirical data to inform

modelling?

  • Are there standard modelling

techniques?

  • Can the models be validated?
  • Is there the required knowledge on

fish behaviour & movement

  • Are the impact survival rates known?
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Understanding uncertainty

  • Modelling has inherent uncertainty at

each step

  • How can this be assessed & managed?
  • Stochas:c modelling
  • Empirical data
  • Valida:on
  • Do you need to understand

cumula:ve uncertainty?

  • Can you assess a poten:al impact

without understanding the bounds of the impact due to uncertainty?

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Impacts on populations/stocks

  • What is the age structure of any losses and how

do these equate to EAV’s?

  • How can age structure losses be assessed at an

ecosystem level?

  • Is information available on stock & or population

sizes & boundaries?

  • Is it possible to assess what is an acceptable

impact?

  • What precaution/pragmatism should be applied?

Age structure of lost individuals Equivalent Adult Values Impacts at ecosystem level Stock/populaEon size % impact on stock/populaEon What % impact is significant

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Acceptable thresholds of effect

  • What is an acceptable threshold of effect? Is a single threshold realistic/defensible?

What can this value be based on?

  • 1% vs other %’s
  • History of the 1% value?
  • Defining a significant part of a population when identifying sites that should be

protected under International legislation

  • ‘any site which regularly holds 1% or more of a waterbird population qualifies

as being internationally important under the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands’

  • “less than 1% of the total annual mortality of the population” has been used by

the European Court when considering the scale of mortality to birds caused by hunting . The Court referred back to an EU scientific committee (ORNIS) that defined that value as being a ‘small number’

  • EU guidance - “It was concluded that, as the habitat type was in decline, the

loss of even 1 % of habitat would be significant.”

  • The 1% value is used to screen out “insignificant emissions” to air potentially

affecting SACs, SPAs, Ramsar sites and SSSIs in the EA permitting process

  • Windfarm bird collision risk modelling - Impacts of above 1% threshold of

baseline mortality triggers further analysis incorporating Potential Biological Removal (PBR)

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Acceptable thresholds of effect

  • PBR - the maximum number of animals, not including natural mortali9es, that may be

removed from a stock while allowing that stock to reach or maintain its op9mum sustainable popula9on.

  • What impact does the loss have on the stock/popula9on?
  • Do all life stage losses effect the stock/popula9on & ecosystem in the same way?
  • What loss to the stock/popula9on is a risk in terms of popula9on reduc9on or crash?
  • Requires development & use of life cycle modelling
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Guidance

  • Guidance is needed on the assessment requirements especially for poten5ally

high risk ac5vi5es in sensi5ve loca5ons

  • What is defined as sound, robust science & best use of evidence & how can this

be demonstrated to minimise precau5onary applica5on?

  • To what level does uncertainty need to be understood & presented?
  • Is there a consistent set threshold of effect?
  • If not, how should it be determined at an individual sector, development, species

level?

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Recruitment plug

Fisheries Ecologist Principal Consultant, Technical Specialist and Senior Scientist Salary: Competitive based on experience + Benefits Package Locations: Manchester, Cardiff, Cambridge, Oxford & Edinburgh Deadline: Monday 18th June 2018