Towards Low-Carbon Society in Asia Progress of the “Research Project to Establish a Methodology to Evaluate Mid to Long Term Environmental Policy Options toward Asian Low-Carbon Societies” g y p (S-6 research project) supported by Environment Research and Technology Development Fund of the Ministry of Environment, Japan (MOEJ), “Asia LCS scenarios and actions to reduce GHG emissions by half by 2050: A proposal from the Asia low A proposal from the Asia low carbon project Mikiko Kainuma National Institute for Environmental Studies International Conference Hall, JICA Research Institute, Tokyo 22 Feburuary 2011
Framework of Asia LCS Project Sustainable development through Sustainable resource Institutional design for LCS LCS management management international cooperation international cooperation Future trends on socio ‐ economic • Constructing material Institutional design for international conditions, energy, resources, regional accounts and regional cooperation regime diversity, culture, lifestyle, etc. • Low ‐ carbonization through improvement through improvement Developed Developed in resource er capita productivity and material recycle missions pe Low Carbon Transportation • Low ‐ Carbon City with Diversity of Asia y GHG em LC transport system LC transport system • Design for future Developing transport system Low ‐ Carbon Backcasting Society y Development of Asia LCS Scenarios • Encouraging the framing for LCS policy in (1) Depicting narrative scenarios for LCS each Asian country (2) Quantifying future LCS visions • Assistance for international negotiations • Assistance for international negotiations (3) Developing robust roadmaps by backcasting with scientific basis • Networking among LCS research in Asia Policy Packages for Asia LCS 2 2
GDP is growing in Asia Various socio ‐ economic scenarios have beeb studied Japan p China China AIM (2009) AIM (2009) Bln.2000US$, mkt,) AIM (2008) ln.2000US$, mkt,) GEO4-MK (UNEP,2007) GEO4-PL (UNEP,2007) I n this BaU scenario, within this GEO4-SC (UNEP,2007) 50 years (2000- 2050), socio- 50 (2000 2050) i GDP (B GDP (B GEO4-ST (UNEP,2007) GEO4 ST (UNEP 2007) WEO2007 (IEA,2007) economic macro parameters are IEO2008 (EIA, 2008) GS (Wilson, 2003) multiplied as f ollows; p India Korea PWC (Hawksworth,2006) (Bln.2000US$, mkt,) (Bln.2000US$, mkt,) Other Southeast Asia Asia World 000US$, mkt,) Population Population 1 4 1. 4 1 5 1. 5 GDP (Bln.20 GDP GDP GDP(PPP) 5. 5 4. 0 Thailand Indonesia Final Energy 3. 0 Fi l E 3 0 2 3 2. 3 P (Bln.2000US$, mkt,) Other South Asia P (Bln.2000US$, mkt,) 2000US$, mkt,) CO2 3. 6 2. 5 GDP (Bln.2 GDP GDP 3
H o w m u c h G H G e m i s s i o n s s h o u l d b e r e d u c e d b y 2 0 5 0 c o m p a r e d t o 1 9 9 0 t o r e d u c e g l o b a l G H G e m i s s i o n s b y h h a a l l f f ? ? D i f f e r e n t i n d e x s h o w s d i f f e r e n t r e d u c t i o n r a t e . ed on sity on intens es base ction rate emissio equal e Reduc Reduction rates based on equal per capita emission
Low carbon Asia project Issues to be tackled in Asia region: Issues to be tackled in Asia region: Low carbon development Low carbon development Economic development, resources, energy security, poverty in Asia reduction, improve environmental quality, etc.. Research themes: Leap- frog toward low carbon development Biomass production for food or energy Backcasting from future vision and Social infrastructure and less material use roadmaps Diversity in Asia in lifestyle Institution and governance to realize low carbon society Institution and governance to realize low carbon society Low carbon sustainable transportation and urban city Realization of a low carbon society with high quality of life Society that that each country of Asia has to low carbon society Society that that each country of Asia has to low carbon society Narrative storyline and evaluation by qualitative modeling Options by roadmaps Capacity building and release of innovative strategy from Asia Encouraging the framing for LCS policy in each Asian country Factors in Scenario/Roadmap Domestic International Energy production: 社会イ 社会イ ンフ ンフ ラ ラ Social infrastructure Social infrastructure Trade Trade Resource & technology Social resource: Other environmental problems Tradition & regulation Human resource Institution International policy
Asia leads the world economy 4.5 80 4.0 70 Primary industry Tertiary industries 3.5 60 3.0 3 0 50 2.5 40 2.0 30 1.5 20 1.0 10 0.5 0.0 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Rest of the World 45 Rest of Asia 40 Rest of South Asia Secondary industry 35 India Rest of South East Asia 30 Thailand 25 Indonesia 20 Korea Korea 15 China 10 Japan 5 Reference (Global total) 0 ET (Global total) Reference (Asia) Reference (Asia) 2000 2000 2010 2010 2020 2020 2030 2030 2040 2040 2050 2050 ET (Asia) Sector GDP （ 2000price trillion US$ ） Scenario Team
Reduction in Asia is a key to reduce global GHG emissions reduce global GHG emissions CO2 related emission (MtCO2 ） その他世界 Rest of the World 70000 その他アジア その他アジア Rest of Asia Rest of Asia 60000 その他南アジア Rest of South Asia India イ ン ド 50000 Rest of South East その他東南アジア その他東南アジア A i Asia タ イ 40000 Thailand イ ン ド ネシア Indonesia 30000 韓国 Korea 中国 20000 China 日本 Japan 10000 Reference (Global リ フ ァ レ ン ス ( 世界計） total) 自由取引（ 自由取引（ 世界計） 世界計） 0 0 ET (Global total) リ フ ァ レ ン ス ( アジア計） 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Reference (Asia) 自由取引（ アジア計） ET (Asia) Emission target in Japan in 2050 is 220MtCO2 in case of equal per capita allocation In case of ET, it will be 860MtCO2 Scenario Team
How about energy scenario?
Primary Energy Consumption in Asia b ll billion tons of oil equivalent f l l 85% 10 Renewables, etc. 8% 9 Fossil fuel share Nuclear 87% 8 7% Natural Gas 7% 7% 67% 7 18% 6% 6 16% Oil 16% 5 92% 25% 17% 4% 26% 26% 4 4 4% 18% 10% 3 Coal 29% 23% 2 45% 43% 53% 1 27% 27% 0 Ref. Tech. Adv. 2008 2035 2050 2050 ‐ In the Reference Scenario, total primary energy consumption in Asia will grow from 3,700 Mtoe in 2008 to 9,400 in 2050, showing a 2.5 ‐ fold increase. Coal consumption, which will grow especially in the power generation sector in developing countries, will maintain the dominant share up to 2050. ‐ In the Technologically Advanced Scenario, where advanced low ‐ carbon technologies become widely deployed through cooperation and technology transfer from developed to developing countries, total primary energy consumption in 2050 will be reduced by 34% from the Reference Scenario. The share of fossil fuel in the primary energy mix will decrease to 67%.
CO 2 Emissions Asia World Gt-CO 2 Gt-CO 2 2 25 25 55 55 25 25 50 23 50 21 45 Reference Energy Saving (40%) Reference Reference 56% 56% Scenario 19 Scenario 40 Biofuel (3%) 17 1% 35 Wind, Solar, etc. 10% 15 29 ( (7%) ) 30 30 12% Nuclear (12%) 13 9% Fuel Switching (8%) 11 25 Tech. Adv. 11 Tech. Adv. 12% Scenario CCS (30%) 20 Scenario 9 10 10 17 15 7 10 5 1990 2000 2008 2020 2035 2050 1990 2000 2008 2020 2035 2050 ‐ In the Reference Scenario, energy ‐ related CO 2 emission will increase 2.2 ‐ fold from 2008 to 2050 in Asia, and 1.7 ‐ fold in the world. ‐ In the Technologically Advanced Scenario CO 2 emission will be reduced by 15 Gt from the Reference Scenario In the Technologically Advanced Scenario, CO 2 emission will be reduced by 15 Gt from the Reference Scenario (13% from 2008) in Asia, and by 33 Gt from Reference (41% from 2008) in the world. ‐ In order to halve CO 2 emission by 2050, further efforts are needed to develop and deploy innovative technologies through 2050.
Only by energy supply side management is not enough to reach the target －＞ Demand side management is important Key policies and countermeasures Key policies and countermeasures from the demand side ・ Low carbon transportation system system ・ Recycled use of resources
Number of cars are growing rapidly in Asia Asia Other Africa 3,500 South Africa Other LA Other LA Brazil 3,000 Middle East India Other Asia 2,500 China h Eastern Europe Asian TE 2,000 Russia 18 18 Korea Japan 1,500 Australia and NZ Other OECD Europe UK 1,000 1,000 Italy Italy Germany France 1 500 USA Mexico Canada 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Transportation Team
Relationship between urban spatial structure & transport network p • Population • Aging Without railway provision & • Life & industry style uncontrolled land development Present • Car ‐ oriented • Higher CO 2 • Higher cost & disaster risk Planned sprawl 2050 • Lower QOL Forecasting Improving radial railways & developing around stations • Railway ‐ oriented y • Lower CO 2 • Motorization • Lower cost & • Transport network disaster risk improvement improvement • Higher QOL • Urban planning Backcasting Evaluating & Targeting (also controlled) 交通チーム
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