Asia LCS scenarios and actions to reduce GHG emissions by half by - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Towards Low-Carbon Society in Asia Progress of the “Research Project to Establish a Methodology to Evaluate Mid to Long Term Environmental Policy Options toward Asian Low-Carbon Societies” g y p (S-6 research project) supported by Environment Research and Technology Development Fund of the Ministry of Environment, Japan (MOEJ),

“Asia LCS scenarios and actions to reduce GHG emissions by half by 2050: A proposal from the Asia low A proposal from the Asia low carbon project

Mikiko Kainuma National Institute for Environmental Studies

International Conference Hall, JICA Research Institute, Tokyo 22 Feburuary 2011

Sustainable development through LCS Institutional design for international cooperation Sustainable resource management

Framework of Asia LCS Project

Developed

LCS international cooperation management

• Constructing material

accounts

• Low‐carbonization

through improvement Future trends on socio‐economic conditions, energy, resources, regional diversity, culture, lifestyle, etc. Institutional design for international and regional cooperation regime

er capita

Developed through improvement in resource productivity and material recycle

missions pe Low Carbon Transportation

• Low‐Carbon City with

LC transport system

Diversity of Asia

GHG em

Developing

Low‐Carbon Society

LC transport system

• Design for future

transport system

Backcasting y

Development of Asia LCS Scenarios (1) Depicting narrative scenarios for LCS (2) Quantifying future LCS visions y

• Encouraging the framing for LCS policy in

each Asian country

• Assistance for international negotiations

2

(3) Developing robust roadmaps by backcasting

Policy Packages for Asia LCS

• Assistance for international negotiations

with scientific basis

• Networking among LCS research in Asia

2

GDP is growing in Asia

Various socio‐economic scenarios have beeb studied

AIM (2009)

China Japan

AIM (2009) AIM (2008) GEO4-MK (UNEP,2007) GEO4-PL (UNEP,2007) GEO4-SC (UNEP,2007) GEO4 ST (UNEP 2007)

China

Bln.2000US$, mkt,) ln.2000US$, mkt,)

p

I n this BaU scenario, within this 50 (2000 2050) i

GEO4-ST (UNEP,2007) WEO2007 (IEA,2007) IEO2008 (EIA, 2008) GS (Wilson, 2003) PWC (Hawksworth,2006)

GDP (B

India

GDP (B

Korea

50 years (2000- 2050), socio- economic macro parameters are multiplied as f ollows;

(Bln.2000US$, mkt,) (Bln.2000US$, mkt,) 000US$, mkt,)

Other Southeast Asia

p Asia World Population 1 4 1 5

GDP

Indonesia

GDP

Thailand

GDP (Bln.20

Population

• 1. 4
• 1. 5

GDP(PPP)

• 5. 5
• 4. 0

Fi l E 3 0 2 3

P (Bln.2000US$, mkt,) P (Bln.2000US$, mkt,) 2000US$, mkt,)

Other South Asia

Final Energy 3. 0

• 2. 3

CO2

• 3. 6
• 2. 5

3

GDP GDP GDP (Bln.2

H

• w

m u c h G H G e m i s s i

• n

s s h

• u

l d b e r e d u c e d b y 2 5 c

• m

p a r e d t

• 1

9 9 t

• r

e d u c e g l

• b

a l G H G e m i s s i

• n

s b y h a l f ? h a l f ? D i f f e r e n t i n d e x s h

• w

s d i f f e r e n t r e d u c t i

• n

r a t e .

ed on sity es base

• n intens

ction rate emissio Reduc equal e Reduction rates based on equal per capita emission

Issues to be tackled in Asia region:

Low carbon Asia project

Low carbon development Issues to be tackled in Asia region:

Economic development, resources, energy security, poverty reduction, improve environmental quality, etc.. Research themes:

Low carbon development in Asia

Leap- frog toward low carbon development Biomass production for food or energy Social infrastructure and less material use Diversity in Asia in lifestyle Institution and governance to realize low carbon society Backcasting from future vision and roadmaps

Realization of a low carbon society with high quality of life Society that that each country of Asia has to low carbon society

Institution and governance to realize low carbon society Low carbon sustainable transportation and urban city

Society that that each country of Asia has to low carbon society

Narrative storyline and evaluation by qualitative modeling Options by roadmaps Capacity building and release of innovative strategy from Asia

Factors in Scenario/Roadmap

Energy production: 社会イ ンフ ラ Trade Social infrastructure Encouraging the framing for LCS policy in each Asian country Domestic International Resource & technology 社会イ ンフ ラ Human resource Institution Social resource: Tradition & regulation Trade International policy Other environmental problems Social infrastructure

Asia leads the world economy

3 0 3.5 4.0 4.5 60 70 80

Primary industry Tertiary industries

1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 20 30 40 50 0.0 0.5 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 45 10 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Rest of the World Rest of Asia

20 25 30 35 40

Secondary industry

Rest of South Asia India Rest of South East Asia Thailand Indonesia Korea

5 10 15 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Korea China Japan Reference (Global total) ET (Global total) Reference (Asia)

Sector GDP（ 2000price trillion US$ ）

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Scenario Team

Reference (Asia) ET (Asia)

Reduction in Asia is a key to reduce global GHG emissions

70000 その他世界 その他アジア

reduce global GHG emissions

CO2 related emission (MtCO2）

Rest of the World Rest of Asia

50000 60000 その他アジア その他南アジア イ ン ド その他東南アジア

Rest of Asia Rest of South Asia India Rest of South East A i

30000 40000 その他東南アジア タ イ イ ン ド ネシア 韓国

Asia Thailand Indonesia Korea

10000 20000 中国 日本 リ フ ァ レ ン ス(世界計） 自由取引（ 世界計）

China Japan Reference (Global total)

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 自由取引（ 世界計） リ フ ァ レ ン ス(アジア計） 自由取引（ アジア計）

ET (Global total) Reference (Asia) ET (Asia)

Scenario Team

Emission target in Japan in 2050 is 220MtCO2 in case of equal per capita allocation In case of ET, it will be 860MtCO2

How about energy scenario?

b ll f l l

Primary Energy Consumption in Asia

8 9 10

billion tons of oil equivalent

7% 7% 8%

Natural Gas Renewables, etc. Nuclear

87% 85%

Fossil fuel share

4 5 6 7 26% 25% 16% 18%

6% 17% 4% 7% 16%

Oil

92% 67%

1 2 3 4 53% 45% 43% 27% 29% 26% 23%

18% 4%

Coal

10% Ref.

• Tech. Adv.

2008 2035 2050 2050

27%

‐ In the Reference Scenario, total primary energy consumption in Asia will grow from 3,700 Mtoe in 2008 to 9,400 in 2050, showing a 2.5‐fold increase. Coal consumption, which will grow especially in the power generation sector in developing countries, will maintain the dominant share up to 2050. ‐ In the Technologically Advanced Scenario, where advanced low‐carbon technologies become widely deployed through cooperation and technology transfer from developed to developing countries, total primary energy consumption in 2050 will be reduced by 34% from the Reference Scenario. The share of fossil fuel in the primary energy mix will decrease to 67%.

55

Gt-CO2

25

25 Gt-CO2

CO2 Emissions

Asia World

45 50 55

50

Energy Saving (40%)

21 23 25

25

2

56%

Reference Reference

30 35 40

29

Biofuel (3%) Wind, Solar, etc. (7%)

15 17 19

56% 1% 10%

Scenario Reference Scenario

20 25 30

( ) Nuclear (12%) Fuel Switching (8%) CCS (30%)

9 11 13

10 11

12% 9% 12%

• Tech. Adv.

Scenario

• Tech. Adv.

Scenario

10 15 1990 2000 2008 2020 2035 2050

17

5 7 1990 2000 2008 2020 2035 2050

10 ‐In the Reference Scenario, energy‐related CO2 emission will increase 2.2‐fold from 2008 to 2050 in Asia, and 1.7‐ fold in the world. ‐ In the Technologically Advanced Scenario CO2 emission will be reduced by 15 Gt from the Reference Scenario In the Technologically Advanced Scenario, CO2 emission will be reduced by 15 Gt from the Reference Scenario (13% from 2008) in Asia, and by 33 Gt from Reference (41% from 2008) in the world. ‐ In order to halve CO2 emission by 2050, further efforts are needed to develop and deploy innovative technologies through 2050.

Only by energy supply side management is not enough to reach the target －＞ Demand side management is

Key policies and countermeasures

important

Key policies and countermeasures from the demand side ・ Low carbon transportation system system ・ Recycled use of resources

Number of cars are growing rapidly in Asia

3,500 Other Africa South Africa Other LA

Asia

2,500 3,000 Other LA Brazil Middle East India Other Asia h 2,000 China Eastern Europe Asian TE Russia Korea

18

1,000 1,500 Japan Australia and NZ Other OECD Europe UK Italy

18

500 1,000 Italy Germany France USA Mexico

1

1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 Canada

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Transportation Team

Relationship between urban spatial structure & transport network p

Without railway provision & uncontrolled land development

• Population
• Aging
• Life & industry style
• Car‐oriented
• Higher CO2
• Higher cost

Present

Planned sprawl

& disaster risk

• Lower QOL

2050 Forecasting

• Railway‐oriented

Improving radial railways & developing around stations y

• Lower CO2
• Lower cost &

disaster risk

• Motorization
• Transport network

improvement

• Higher QOL

improvement

• Urban planning

(also controlled)

Evaluating & Targeting Backcasting

交通チーム

Changes in Passenger Transport Demand

End of the 20th Beginning of the Type Mode End of the 20th Century Beginning of the 21st Century Coming Future

Private Travel Motorcycle Growth & popular Slightly declining Electric motorcycles Car Significant growth Continuing growth Low Emission Vehicles Travel Car Significant growth Continuing growth Low Emission Vehicles Changes in usage Taxi‐type SOI Motorcycle Growth Feeder transit for urban rail transit Electric feeder transit T k t k P l f t i t U d f l l h El t i T k t k f yp Road Public Transport Tuk –tuk Popular for tourists Used for local home‐ based travel Electric Tuk‐tuk for tourists & residents Taxi Popular for middle‐ income people Replaced more by urban rail transit Less supply Shared Road Public Transport Silhorlek Locally organized Locally stable services Locally electric Silhorlek Songtaew Complementary bus services Complementary bus services Remaining Bus Services for low income Little improvement Network improvement Bus Services for low‐income people Little improvement Network improvement (Curitiba) Rail‐type Public BRT × Opening the 1st line Opening more lines Urban Rail Transit × Opening new lines Larger‐scale network Public Transport Traditional Railway Services for low‐income people Little improvement Long‐distance transit

• nly

Transportation Team

Estimate of Demand for Construction Materials

• Estimate based on China’s plan for construction of transportation network

p p

• Current construction speed is faster than the plan
• Infrastructure per capita or per area in China is not still enough

3 5 4

C e m e n t M t

Railway Highway

2 5 7

t

1 1 5 2 2 5 3

S t e e l

1 1 5 2 2 3 4 5 6

A s p h a l t ( 1 t

• n

) C e m e n t ( 1 t

• n

) S t e e l ( 1 t

• n

)

h a l ta n d C e m e n S t e e l ( 1

5 1

1 9 9 3 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 9 2 2 2 5 2 8 2 1 1 2 1 4 2 1 7 2 2

5 1 2 1 9 9 31 9 9 61 9 9 92 22 52 82 1 12 1 42 1 72 2

A s p t

Unit USA China India German France Brazil Japan Italy UK Unit USA China India German France Brazil Japan Italy UK Railway length 10000 km 22.67

7.8

6.33 3.39 2.95 2.95 2.01 1.67 1.62 Railway density Km/km2 0.025

0.008

0.019 0.095 0.054 0.003 0.053 0.055 0.066 Km/10000 persons 7.54

0.59

0.58 4.11 4.84 1.56 1.57 2.87 2.67 Road length 10000 km 646.58

193.05

331.65 64.45 95.15 175.19 119.70 48.77 39.83 K /k

2

24

0 201

1 009 1 80 1 39 0 206 3 168 1 619 1 62 Road density Km/km2 0.724

0.201

1.009 1.805 1.739 0.206 3.168 1.619 1.627 Km/10000 persons 215.02

14.60

30.28 78.17 156.29 93.14 93.79 83.90 65.74

Resource Management Team

Criticality of metals associated with mitigation technologies g

• Metals required for EV/PHEV are critical, according to the evaluation based
• n the rate of demand increase (accumulated metals demand/current metals

production) and potential CO2 reduction (accumulated CO2 reduction) 2010年~2030年 2010年~2050年 production) and potential CO2 reduction (accumulated CO2 reduction) 16

Demand Balance between Co-products and By-products in mines

• Among the common non-ferrous metals, copper and zinc draw a lot of

attentions due to their relatively instable supply

• A f

i hi h i ll d d i l d i i h

• As for zinc, which is usually produced in lead-zinc mine, we expect the

decreasing demand for its main co-product, lead, while also expect rapid demand increase for their by-product, indium, silver, bismuth and so on. Li Shift t LEV? Pb‐Zn Mine A Bi

Prod ?

Pb Li (Li‐Ion bat.) Shift to LEV? Battery Type

Dem ー

Ag, Bi (By‐Product)

• Prod. ‐?

Dem

＋

Ne Im for Mi

Demand+ Demand‐ Pb‐free?

mand ー mand

＋＋

egative mpact ne Profit?

Should we operate lead-zinc mines for mining of indium? 1 7

In

(By‐pro. for Zn)

Zn CIS/CIGS Solar modules

Tight Supply?

Resource Constraint?

How to deploy our study to real world

Core research

Each country’s domestic/ local

Policy makers

Collaboration for LCS scenario development and

Core research members

Application and development to Development and domestic/ local research institute

y Central/regional government administration Development Agencies

scenario development and building roadmaps Request of more practical development to actual LCS processes maintenance of study tools/models

Agencies NGOs

Request of more practical, realistic roadmaps and also tractable tools for real world

China Vietnam Korea India China Japan Thailand p Indonesia http://2050.nies.go.jp/LCS Malaysia

S c e n a r i

• D

e v e l

• p

m e n t i n I s k a n d a r M a l y a i s

Singapore

To SATREPS project for implimentation

Low Carbon Cities: Sustainable Iskandar Malaysia

Region Specific Studies

Establishment of a sustainable low‐carbon society in Iskandar Malaysia Create awareness among local authorities, the State government, stakeholders and the State government, stakeholders and the community urgent and decisive actions to be taken to realize a robust growth and low‐carbon Malaysia

Freight Transport Infrastructure

7000

BAU

4000 5000 6000 7000 3W LCV HCV

BAU

Industrial Corridors Coal by Wire Haryana

Dadri

Rajasthan Gujarat Madhya Pradesh Haryana Uttar Pradesh

1000 2000 3000 HCV Train Ship

• J. N Port

Maharashtra

Freight movement by transport infrastructure type (Bn Tkm)

100% 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 3W LCV

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% HCV Train Ship Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

21

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Sectoral shares in freight transport infrastructure (%)

Major Towns Proposed Freight Corridor Assumed Corridors

Asia LCS scenarios and actions: How to achieve sustainable low-carbon society

Low-carbon society model capacity building workshop B id i l ti i d t i bl LCS li

Dissemination & ExSS Workshop in Thailand Organized by TGO, SIIT-TU, JGSEE, NIES

Bridge simulation scenarios and sustainable LCS policy implementation using AIM (Asia-Pacific Integrated Model)

g y

November 19, 2010. Pullman King Power Hotel, Bangkok

2

)

563,730

P w 91 615 kt CO

3 8 % n s ( k t

• C

O

2 Freight: 23,118 kt-CO 2 Passenger: 15,159 kt-CO 2 Industry: 79,984 kt-CO 2 Commercial: 18 734 kt CO Power: 91,615 kt-CO 2

3 3 % 3 8 % E m i s s i

• n

Commercial: 18,734 kt-CO 2 Residential: 10,950 kt-CO 2

185,983

G H G

Remarks:

BAU is Business as Usual CM is Countermeasure CM is Countermeasure

Thailand’s LCS brochures had been distributed and disseminated in Thailand.

2

)

563,730

P w 91 615 kt CO

3 8 %

and disseminated in Thailand.

• 1. Thailand Greenhouse gas management

O i i (TGO)

n s ( k t

• C

O

2 Freight: 23,118 kt-CO 2 Passenger: 15,159 kt-CO 2 Industry: 79,984 kt-CO 2 Commercial: 18 734 kt CO Power: 91,615 kt-CO 2

3 3 % 3 8 %

Organization (TGO).

• 2. Climate change focal point of Thailand:

ONEP.

E m i s s i

• n

Commercial: 18,734 kt-CO 2 Residential: 10,950 kt-CO 2

185,983

• 3. Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA).
• 4. Energy Planning and Policy Office (EPPO), MOEN.

5 Department of Alternetive Energy

G H G

• 5. Department of Alternetive Energy

Development and Efficiency (DEDE), MOEN.

• 6. Research Institutes & Universities.

7 NGO

Remarks:

BAU is Business as Usual CM is Countermeasure

• 7. NGOs.
• 8. Privates/Business.

Note: TGO & MOEN are looking towards 2030,

CM is Countermeasure

instead of 2022.

Architecture for Low Carbon Technology

（

1) International Institution

A) Economics （ Negative impact of regulations）

• International Competitiveness (trade)
• Elasticity
• Carbon Leakage, etc.

Governance Architecture for Low Carbon Technology

B) Technology（ transition theory）

• RD&D/Demonstration
• Deployment
• Diffusion

Diffusion

• Commercialization

2) Case Studies in Asia （ Reality, Obstacles, Possibilities in Tech Transfer）

C) Institution

• Domestic Institution（

Home country factor)

• Converging Factor（

Globalization, etc.）

Institution Team

Leap‐frogging and political/economical diversity political/economical diversity potential and obstacles

• Technological leap‐frogging

Potential： CCS, Renewable, Nuclear, DSM Potential： CCS, Renewable, Nuclear, DSM Obstacle： 1) Under development even in the developed countries, 2) High cost, 3) Shut‐down of the small/inefficient facilities and reduction of the d d id bl demand are un‐avoidable

• Political/Economical Diversity

Potential： Un democratic top down measures (esp in China) Bottom up Potential： Un‐democratic top‐down measures (esp. in China), Bottom‐up efforts by the local community for low‐carbon (Thailand, Philippines) Obstacles： 1) Top‐down: Social insecurity, Human rights for the development, 2) Bottom‐up: Lack of finance, small emission reduction amount

Diversity team

Integrating research into policy‐making process policy making process

Supported its foundation by G8 Environment Ministers Meeting. 7 countries and 15 research institutes (currently) Willing to Expand to G20 countries under French G8/G20 presidency in 2011 What makes LCS‐RNet “Unique”; St ti ith G8 EMM Strong connection with G8 EMM process Targets on new research for LCS to fill the knowledge gap Involve other research areas

Final Remarks Final Remarks

• 1. GHG emission paths for LCS will be quantified to propose

p q p p effective policies and countermeasures.

• 2. Link GHG stabilization studies with other important issues

h f d t it f hi i LCS such as energy-food-water security for achieving LCS.

• 3. Issues arising in the transition process to LCS will be

identified and studied. de t ed a d stud ed.

• 4. Develop country/region/city scenarios in Asia with researches

in each country by supporting model building.

• 5. Analyze fund mechanism for technology transfer
• 6. Enhance LCS studies by tying with SATREPS and Low

Carbon Research Network (LCS RNet) Carbon Research Network (LCS-RNet)

f Thank you for your attention!