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Arlington Public Schools and Arlington County Government - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Arlington Public Schools and Arlington County Government Collaboration and Data Sharing to Inform Schools Projections Joint School Board/County Board Work Session December 3, 2019 Community Facilities Study (2015-2017) Community Facilities

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Arlington Public Schools and Arlington County Government Collaboration and Data Sharing to Inform Schools Projections

Joint School Board/County Board Work Session December 3, 2019

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Community Facilities Study (2015-2017)

Community Facilities Study (CFS), 2015 – 2017

https://commissions.arlingtonva.us/community-facilities-study/ The CFS reviewed the ACG Forecast and APS Projections Methods:  Consultants reviewed County population and employment forecasts and APS student projections  The review reinforced validity of methods  This confirmed the need for two different methodologies and projections for two different purposes  Recommended short and long-term improvements for data sharing, collaboration, trend monitoring, and methodology

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Collaboration between APS and ACG

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Community Facilities Study

July 1, 2017

ACG Forecast Round 9.1

2015-2017 September 30, 2017

APS Projections

July 1, 2015

ACG Forecast Round 9.0

2015 2020 2016 2017 2018 2019

Enhancement

Annual Housing Unit Forecast Master Housing Unit Database Projected Births

September 30, 2018

APS Projections ACG Data Update

September 30, 2018

Added Enhancement

Affordability

September 30, 2019

Added Enhancement

Recalibrate Birth Projections

ACG Data Update

September 30, 2019

APS Projections

September 30, 2016

APS Projections

September 30, 2015

APS Projections

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ACG Forecast

Land Use Model

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“The housing unit method is an acceptable methodology and is especially effective in areas with high quality data on housing development and changes.”

  • --- RLS Demographics, A Review of Projection Methodologies for the Arlington County Government and Arlington Public Schools , April 2, 2015.
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ACG Forecast

Land Use Model

  • Forecast of housing units, households, population, and jobs for a 30-year

period and broken down in to 5-year increments.

  • Population forecast is based on the 2010 Census total population count.
  • Future population is estimated by applying occupancy and households

statistics to projects under construction or approved (not yet under construction) and areas which could be redeveloped with greater development potential and/or change in land use.

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ACG Forecast

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  • Housing unit occupancy and average

household size are derived from 2010 Census data.

  • Each variable is derived for the areas listed

below, and for the balance of the County

  • utside of these areas.
  • Density and land use is determined by County

Board adopted/approved documents:

  • General Land Use Plan (GLUP)
  • Zoning Ordinance
  • Sector and Small Area Plans

1. Rosslyn 2. Courthouse 3. Clarendon 4. VA Square 5. Ballston 6. Crystal City 7. Pentagon City 8. Columbia Pike 9. Shirlington

  • 10. Cherrydale
  • 11. Nauck
  • 12. East Falls Church

Variables

Guidance

Guidance

Guidance

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ACG Development Tracking

200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Net New Housing Units

Net New Housing Units 7 Guidance

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Collaboration between APS and ACG

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ACG and APS implemented a methodology that links population forecasts to student projections through housing units and births.

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Data Shared Between ACG and APS

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Master Housing Unit Database (MHUD)

Combines administrative data from multiple sources to create one database of all housing units.

Housing Unit Forecast

ACG creates a modified housing unit forecast, which breaks down anticipated housing unit growth on an annual basis for the next 10- years.

Actual and Projected Births

Births that have occurred to Arlington residents and projected births based on the population forecast.

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Master Housing Unit Database (MHUD)

  • First developed in 2015
  • Updated annually as of July 1st
  • Combines data from Real Estate Assessments,

Housing Division (Apartments), and development tracking to create a database of all housing units in the County

  • Designates apartment complexes by affordability

type: market rate, CAF Only, or mixed (market and CAF)

  • APS uses MHUD to calculate student generation

factors by housing type which are applied to future housing to estimate student yield

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2018 Master Housing Unit Database (MHUD)

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Housing Unit Forecast

  • ACG participates in the MWCOG Cooperative

Forecasting Process.

  • Most recent: Forecast Round 9.1
  • Produced by ACG as of July 1, 2017
  • Adopted by MWCOG Fall 2018
  • ACG produces a special housing forecast for APS:
  • Update based on development changes between

the latest forecast round (July 1, 2017) and the current year

  • Breaks down 5-year incremental forecast to a 1-

year forecast for a 10-year period

  • Every September, ACG reviews the annual housing unit

forecast and provides an update to APS

  • The forecast includes affordable housing units in site

plans/use permits approved by the County Board

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2018 Housing Unit Forecast 10-Year

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Actual and Projected Births

  • Data about actual births (those that have occurred to Arlington residents)

are purchased from the Virginia Department of Health by ACG

  • Projected births are estimated by integrating a cohort component

population model and the five-year population forecasts:

  • Updated annually
  • Model recalibration

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Improvements to Forecast County Births

  • The cohort component model used to project births is being

recalibrated to include updates:

  • ACG Round 9.1 population forecast
  • Fertility rates
  • Migration rates
  • Updated birth forecasts, reflecting the recalibrated model, will be

available in October 2019

  • Updated birth forecasts will be used in the upcoming 2020-21 to

2029-30 enrollment projections

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All Arlington Public Schools (APS) budget and operations decisions are based on the best information available at the time. Staff and community members are reminded that funding forecasts from Arlington County and the state may change, based

  • n many external factors. Similarly, student enrollment and projections are based on the best available information, but are also subject to change due to employment, housing and other economic factors. For these reasons, APS and the Arlington

School Board may adjust future budget allocations, staffing and other operations decisions to reflect the existing community and operating landscape.

Factors Contributing to Enrollment Growth

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Factors Contributing to Enrollment Growth

All Arlington Public Schools (APS) budget and operations decisions are based on the best information available at the time. Staff and community members are reminded that funding forecasts from Arlington County and the state may change, based on many external factors. Similarly, student enrollment and projections are based on the best available information, but are also subject to change due to employment, housing and other economic factors. For these reasons, APS and the Arlington School Board may adjust future budget allocations, staffing and other operations decisions to reflect the existing community and operating landscape.

Larger kindergarten cohorts entering APS elementary schools Smaller 12th grade cohorts graduating from APS high schools Projected Arlington County “resident” births Residential housing growth Migration of families into and

  • ut of Arlington

County

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All Arlington Public Schools (APS) budget and operations decisions are based on the best information available at the time. Staff and community members are reminded that funding forecasts from Arlington County and the state may change, based on many external factors. Similarly, student enrollment and projections are based on the best available information, but are also subject to change due to employment, housing and other economic factors. For these reasons, APS and the Arlington School Board may adjust future budget allocations, staffing and other operations decisions to reflect the existing community and operating landscape.

Factors Contributing to Enrollment Growth

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* Source: Fall 2018 10-Year Projections ** Source: Membership reports for 2019 and previous years www.apsva.us/statistics/monthly-enrollment/

2,448 2,337 2,283 2,231 2,320 2,268 2,144 2,145 2,156 2,135 2,108 1,876 2,081 1,901 1,779 1,762 1,782 1,631 1,565 1,492

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 K 2022- 23 K 2021- 22 K 2020- 21 K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 12th,

  • Sept. '18

12th,

  • Sept. '17

12th,

  • Sept. '16

12th,

  • Sept. '15

APS Student Enrollment Snapshot Fall 2019

Projected Kindergarten Students * Current Students (Sept. 30, 2019) ** Recent Grade 12 Cohorts (Sept. of each year) **

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Factors Contributing to Enrollment Growth

All Arlington Public Schools (APS) budget and operations decisions are based on the best information available at the time. Staff and community members are reminded that funding forecasts from Arlington County and the state may change, based on many external factors. Similarly, student enrollment and projections are based on the best available information, but are also subject to change due to employment, housing and other economic factors. For these reasons, APS and the Arlington School Board may adjust future budget allocations, staffing and other operations decisions to reflect the existing community and operating landscape.

Enrollment projections rely on assumptions for future kindergarten students:

  • Kindergarten

projections from 2019-20 to 2021-22 are based on actual births from 2014 to 2016

  • Kindergarten

projections starting in 2022-23 are based on county birth forecasts

2,139 2,196 2,152 2,127 2,253 2,293 2,279 2,283 2,337 2,448 2,536 2,570 2,621 2,676 2,737 2,803 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 Entering Kindergarten Cohort Schooll Year

Projected kindergarten enrollment, Fall 2018 10-Year Projections Actual kindergarten enrollment

Based on actual births Based on forecasted births

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Source: Fall 2018 10-Year Projections

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All Arlington Public Schools (APS) budget and operations decisions are based on the best information available at the time. Staff and community members are reminded that funding forecasts from Arlington County and the state may change, based on many external factors. Similarly, student enrollment and projections are based on the best available information, but are also subject to change due to employment, housing and other economic factors. For these reasons, APS and the Arlington School Board may adjust future budget allocations, staffing and other operations decisions to reflect the existing community and operating landscape.

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Factors Contributing to Enrollment Growth

  • In Fall 2019, RLS Demographics was contracted to update the Arlington County births forecast model,

the Cohort Projection System, last updated in 2016

  • Comparisons of forecasted and actual births for 2017 and 2018 showed that births were over-estimated

in the forecast model

  • RLS Demographics’ update of the birth forecasts includes:
  • The latest AGC population forecast (Round 9.1)
  • Updated analysis of age-specific fertility rates using 2010 to 2018 historical birth data and US

Census bureau estimates of the distribution of the female population by age

  • Updated analysis of age-specific migration using US Census Bureau estimates up to July 1, 2018
  • Some key findings that informed the updated births model:
  • It was found that the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) from 2010 to 2015 was 1.44 and is estimated to

decline to 1.34 in the 2015 to 2020 period*

  • There is a reduced level of in-migration for the 20 to 24 and 25 to 29 age groups, compared with

the 2016 model

* The updated migration uses the latest Census estimates extrapolated to 2020

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All Arlington Public Schools (APS) budget and operations decisions are based on the best information available at the time. Staff and community members are reminded that funding forecasts from Arlington County and the state may change, based on many external factors. Similarly, student enrollment and projections are based on the best available information, but are also subject to change due to employment, housing and other economic factors. For these reasons, APS and the Arlington School Board may adjust future budget allocations, staffing and other operations decisions to reflect the existing community and operating landscape.

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By 2023, the latest birth forecast is 964 births lower than previously assumed

Source: APS, Planning & Evaluation. RLS Demographics, Oct. 2019. ACG, CPHD, Sept. 2018 and Sept. 2019.

Factors Contributing to Enrollment Growth

3,408 3,750 2,786 2,934 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 Actual and Forecasted Births

Comparison of Actual Births and Births Used in the Fall 2018 and Fall 2019 10-Year Enrollment Projections

Births (used in Fall 2018 projections) Updated births (for Fall 2019 projections) Actual births

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Factors Contributing to Enrollment Growth

All Arlington Public Schools (APS) budget and operations decisions are based on the best information available at the time. Staff and community members are reminded that funding forecasts from Arlington County and the state may change, based on many external factors. Similarly, student enrollment and projections are based on the best available information, but are also subject to change due to employment, housing and other economic factors. For these reasons, APS and the Arlington School Board may adjust future budget allocations, staffing and other operations decisions to reflect the existing community and operating landscape.

  • Enrollment

projections also rely

  • n assumptions of

future residential construction from the county

  • Future housing

accommodates new households and students

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Net New Housing Unit Forecast for 2019 to 2029

Projection Year Multi-family Garden Multi-family Highrise Single-family Detached Townhome Total Net New Units

2019

  • 1,275
  • 1,275

2020 12 2,188

  • 3

2,203 2021 36 1,230

  • 1,266

2022

  • 1,234
  • 27

1,261 2023 172 1,167 3 57 1,400 2024 12 1,325

  • 86

1,423 2025 32 1,324

  • 45

1,401 2026

  • 1,379
  • 1,379

2027

  • 1,379
  • 1,379

2028 85 1,232

  • 1,317

2029 99 1,178

  • 1,277

Total 448 14,911 3 218 15,581

Source: ACG, CPHD, Sept. 2019.

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All Arlington Public Schools (APS) budget and operations decisions are based on the best information available at the time. Staff and community members are reminded that funding forecasts from Arlington County and the state may change, based on many external factors. Similarly, student enrollment and projections are based on the best available information, but are also subject to change due to employment, housing and other economic factors. For these reasons, APS and the Arlington School Board may adjust future budget allocations, staffing and other operations decisions to reflect the existing community and operating landscape.

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  • The greatest number
  • f residential units are

delivered in 2020

  • Unit deliveries are

evenly distributed from 2021 to 2029

Source: ACG, CPHD, Housing Unit Forecast, Sept. 2018 and

  • Sept. 2019, Development Tracking Report, 3Q2018 and

4Q2018, https://projects.arlingtonva.us/data- research/development/quarterly-tracking-report/.

127 1,275 2,203 1,266 1,261 1,400 1,423 1,401 1,379 1,379 1,317 1,277 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 2018 * 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Net New Units

Comparison of Future Residential Units Assumed in the 10- Year Fall 2018 and Fall 2019 Enrollment Projections

Net new units (used in Fall 2018) Net new units (used in Fall 2019)

Net new units (3Q2018 and 4Q2018)

Factors Contributing to Enrollment Growth

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All Arlington Public Schools (APS) budget and operations decisions are based on the best information available at the time. Staff and community members are reminded that funding forecasts from Arlington County and the state may change, based on many external factors. Similarly, student enrollment and projections are based on the best available information, but are also subject to change due to employment, housing and other economic factors. For these reasons, APS and the Arlington School Board may adjust future budget allocations, staffing and other operations decisions to reflect the existing community and operating landscape.

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Source: * Rates are based on September 30, 2019 APS Enrollments (Grades K-12) and July 1, 2019 Master Housing Unit Database (MHUD) from Arlington County Government, CPHD, Planning Division. ** Rates are based on September 30, 2018 APS Enrollments (Grades K-12) and July 1, 2018 Master Housing Unit Database (MHUD) from Arlington County Government, CPHD, Planning Division.

Grades K to 12 Single Family Detached Single Family Detached with Accessory Dwelling Townhome Duplex Market Rate Mixed Income CAF Only 1 Market Rate Mixed Income CAF Only Elevator Garden Total by School DRAFT - Fall 2019 Student Generation Rates * 0.498 N/A 0.214 0.345 0.066 0.127 0.656 0.254 0.383 0.632 0.055 0.113 0.232 Fall 2018 Student Generation Rates ** 0.497 N/A 0.194 0.358 0.061 0.126 0.617 0.258 0.380 0.584 0.054 0.110 0.229 Difference 0.001 N/A 0.020 (0.013) 0.005 0.001 0.039 (0.004) 0.003 0.048 0.001 0.003 0.003 2019 Master Housing Unit Database (MHUD) housing by type shares 1 24.09% 0.03% 3.77% 2.27% 25.24% 7.86% 0.53% 8.55% 1.88% 2.99% 12.78% 10.00% 100.00%

1 Excludes Apartment Elevator Senior Housing

Multi-family Elevator Multi-family Garden Condo

To each new unit is a applied a Student Generation Rate (SGR) to estimate the number of students from new residential development.

Comparison of Draft Fall 2019 and Fall 2018 SGR

Factors Contributing to Enrollment Growth

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14,191 14,667 14,800 14,981 15,307 15,589 15,835 16,161 16,534 16,919 17,271

  • 869
  • 593
  • 726
  • 182
  • 508
  • 790
  • 1,036
  • 1,362
  • 1,735
  • 2,120
  • 2,472

2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 Elementary School Enrollment (PreK to Grades 5) School Year

Factors Contributing to Enrollment Growth – Elementary School

Starting in 2024-25, the Kindergarten to Grade 5 elementary school enrollment projections are completely based on assumptions from:

  • Births
  • Future construction
  • Past cohort

transition rates continuing into the future

All Arlington Public Schools (APS) budget and operations decisions are based on the best information available at the time. Staff and community members are reminded that funding forecasts from Arlington County and the state may change, based on many external factors. Similarly, student enrollment and projections are based on the best available information, but are also subject to change due to employment, housing and other economic factors. For these reasons, APS and the Arlington School Board may adjust future budget allocations, staffing and other operations decisions to reflect the existing community and operating landscape.

+752 seats, Fleet E.S. +725 seats, Reed E.S.

Projection completely based on assumptions 2018 Enrollment School Seats Projected Enrollment (No.)

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Factors Contributing to Enrollment Growth – Middle School

Starting in 2027-28, the Grade 6 to 8 middle school enrollment projections are completely based on assumptions from:

  • Births
  • Future construction
  • Past cohort

transition rates continuing into the future

All Arlington Public Schools (APS) budget and operations decisions are based on the best information available at the time. Staff and community members are reminded that funding forecasts from Arlington County and the state may change, based on many external factors. Similarly, student enrollment and projections are based on the best available information, but are also subject to change due to employment, housing and other economic factors. For these reasons, APS and the Arlington School Board may adjust future budget allocations, staffing and other operations decisions to reflect the existing community and operating landscape.

5,950 6,204 6,532 6,628 6,609 6,697 6,854 6,989 7,002 6,995 7,103

  • 639

129

  • 199
  • 295
  • 276
  • 364
  • 521
  • 656
  • 669
  • 662
  • 770

1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 Middle School Enrollment (Grades 6 to 8) School Year +1,022 seats, Hamm M.S. The Heights (Gr. 6-8)

Projection completely based on assumptions 2018 Enrollment School Seats Projected Enrollment (No.)

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7,181 7,527 7,818 8,297 8,741 8,996 9,310 9,366 9,478 9,613 9,715

542 433 262 463 69

  • 186
  • 500

244 132

  • 3
  • 105
  • 1,000

1,000 3,000 5,000 7,000 9,000 11,000 High School Enrollment (Grades 9 to 12) School Year

Factors Contributing to Enrollment Growth – High School

Starting in 2028-29, the Grade 9 high school enrollment projections are completely based on assumptions from:

  • Births
  • Future construction
  • And past cohort

transition rates continuing into the future

All Arlington Public Schools (APS) budget and operations decisions are based on the best information available at the time. Staff and community members are reminded that funding forecasts from Arlington County and the state may change, based on many external factors. Similarly, student enrollment and projections are based on the best available information, but are also subject to change due to employment, housing and other economic factors. For these reasons, APS and the Arlington School Board may adjust future budget allocations, staffing and other operations decisions to reflect the existing community and operating landscape.

+237 seats,

  • Arl. Tech

The Heights (Gr. 9-12) +680 seats,

  • Arl. Tech

Ed Center +50 seats,

  • Arl. Tech

+800 seats,

  • Arl. Career Ctr.

+120 seats,

  • Arl. Tech

Projection for Grade 9 based on assumptions 2018 Enrollment School Seats Projected Enrollment (No.)

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Click to add text

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All Arlington Public Schools (APS) budget and operations decisions are based on the best information available at the time. Staff and community members are reminded that funding forecasts from Arlington County and the state may change, based on many external factors. Similarly, student enrollment and projections are based on the best available information, but are also subject to change due to employment, housing and other economic factors. For these reasons, APS and the Arlington School Board may adjust future budget allocations, staffing and other operations decisions to reflect the existing community and operating landscape.

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APS Enrollment Projections Timeline

Timeframe Topic Mid December 2019 APS publishes 2019 10-Year Projections for 2020-21 through 2028-29 January 2020 Update to permanent seat capacity inventory reflecting refinements to schools’ permanent seat capacity and the 2019 10-Year Projections February 11, 2020 School Board Work Session: 10-Year Projections update for the 2021-30 Capital Improvement Plan (CIP)

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Arlington Public Schools and Arlington County Government Collaboration and Data Sharing to Inform Schools Projections

Joint School Board/County Board Work Session December 3, 2019