Are We Too Relia Are We Too Relia ant on Migration? ant on - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Are We Too Relia Are We Too Relia

New Zealand’s Demograph

Paul Sp Research Director/ College of Humanitie Massey U

11 Apr The Treasury

ant on Migration? ant on Migration?

ic and Economic Challenges

poonley /Regional Director / g es and Social Sciences University

il 2013 y , Wellington

Demographic Shif

1840s‐1960s Colonial immig 1960s‐1980s Pasifika labour 1990s‐2010 Skilled migratio 2011‐2030 Skilled labour r + Population rep Population rep + Population age + Regional imbal

fts and Challenges

gration – British/Irish migration

• n/Asians

recruitment lacement lacement eing ances

Who Is An I

• Cross‐border/transnatio
• Divided “loyalties”

R t i l i

• Repeat or circular migra
• Temporary vs permanen

p y p

Immigrant?

• nal links and activities

ti ation nt migrants g

Nga Tangata O

• Stock-flows accounting system a

interaction model (1986 2036) interaction model (1986-2036)

• Household-familial experiences a

employers, Yr 13 students)

 Paul Spoonley, Trudie Cain, Robin Pea  Jacques Poot, Natalie Jackson, Michae  Dave Maré (MOTU)

Oho Mairangi

and demographic-economic and expectations (Households,

ace (Massey University) el Cameron (University of Waikato)

Immigration P

• Focus on HSI (“Economic” =
• Diversity of source countrie
• Two‐step (temporary to pe

Two step (temporary to pe

• Annual recruitment target

+ Annual arrivals (80,000‐95, + Temporary work/students

Policy Platform

= 60%) es ermanent) ermanent) (45,000 PLT) ,000 PLT) (120,000+)

Soft Citizenship

[There] is no economic and li b N Z l d i i to become New Zealand citiz seek to influence or persuade It is considered better that re It is considered better that re themselves decide freely and they wish to be New Zealand they wish to be New Zealand Secre

p Expectations

ittle social pressure on aliens d N Z l d zens, nor does New Zealand e aliens in this matter. esident aliens should esident aliens should d at leisure whether or not d citizens d citizens. etary of Internal Affairs, 1960

Permanent inflows into selected as a percentage of to as a percentage of to d OECD and non‐OECD countries,

• tal population, 2010
• tal population, 2010

Residence

/ Business/skilled 2 Intern/Humanitarian 4 Parent Sibling 5 Parent Sibling Adult Child 5 Uncapped Family 9 Totals 4

Approvals

07/08 011/012 27,303 20,431 4,138 2,802 5,177 5,708 5,177 5,708 9,459 11,507 46,077 40,448

Residence

07/08 UK 10 030 UK 10,030 China 6,070 South Africa 4,166 Philippines 3,787 India 3,293 Fiji 3 044 Fiji 3,044

Approvals

011/012 UK 6 032 UK 6,032 China 5,412 India 5,220 Philippines 3,277 Fiji 2,620 South Africa 2 236 South Africa 2,236

Annual permanent and long‐term migration flows, 1981/82–2011/12

Permanent and long‐term mi (June y (June y igration forecasts, 2013‐2014 years) years)

Nationality of Tempora

2003/04 / UK India India South Africa China Fiji Fiji South Korea

ary Workers, Auckland

2011/12 / India UK UK China USA Fiji Fiji Philippines

Temporary to

Principal Skilled Migrants

• 53% held Essential Skills vis
• 38% held a Student visa (1

38% held a Student visa (1

11/ 11/ Essential Skills Students Students

• Permanent

sa (1:3) :5) :5)

/12 /12 22,000 68 900 68,900

Population and

PALT Flows Arrivals 09/10 82,300 11/12 84,400 (9,000) ( )

Skills Retention

Departures ‐/+ 65,800 +16,500 87,600 (48,600) ‐3,200 (‐39,700) ( ) ( )

(MBIE 2013) (MBIE, 2013)

Net Losses/Gains to Aus

1979 ‐32,173 1980 ‐24,400 1981 ‐28,621 1982 ‐15,129 1983 +977 1984 ‐ 2,345 1985 ‐16,741 1986 ‐24,836 1987 ‐18,212 1988 ‐31,319 1989 ‐26,568 , 1990 ‐ 3,802 1991 +1612 1992 ‐ 3,714 , 1993 ‐ 3,295 1994 ‐ 4,996 1995 ‐ 8,260 1995 8,260

stralia, September Years

1996 ‐10,389 1997 ‐13,090 1998 ‐16,266 1999 ‐22,662 2000 ‐26,113 2001 ‐28,359 2002 ‐12,854 2003 ‐ 9,310 2004 ‐13,609 2005 ‐20,697 2006 ‐23,102 , 2007 ‐26,194 2008 ‐33,929 2009 ‐33,590 , 2010 ‐14,890 2011 ‐25,331 2012 ‐39,456 2012 39,456

Components of population growth, 1993/94–2011/12

Populatio

• Declining birth rates → pro
• Declining birth rates → pro

groups /

• Longevity → increases %/n
• Migraon → loss of prime

migration

• n Ageing
• poron in different age
• poron in different age

’ ld no’s in older age groups working age vs retirement Jackson and Pawar, 2013 Jackson and Pawar, 2013

Populatio

• 1. Shift from natural increase

to to Natural decline (deaths ex 2 Cohorts entering workforc

• 2. Cohorts entering workforc

existing

n Ageing?

e (births exceed deaths)

• xceed births)

ce exceeded by those ce exceeded by those N Jackson

• N. Jackson

Populatio

65+ Dependency ratio (working age: 65+ Life expectancy (65+) Males Females Females

• n Ageing

1950s 2050s 1950s 2050s 300,000 1.7 million +) 7:1 2:1 12.1 15 7 28.4 25 9 15.7 25.9

Number of people 15‐64 for every person over 65

Key thresholds indicatin

• Onset of youth deficit (pro

15‐24 years declines below 15‐24 years declines below

• Fewer people at labour ma

(15 24 55 64 20 29 (15‐24: 55‐64 years; 20‐29:

• More elderly than children
• Key reproductive age popu

cent of the population p p

• More deaths than births (n

Ab l t d li

• Absolute decline

ng end of growth phase

portion of population aged w 15 per cent) w 15 per cent) arket ‘entry’ than ‘exit’ age 60 69 ) : 60‐69 years) (65+ : 0‐14 years) ulation declines below 15 per natural decline)

Migration a

Net Losses

• Reinforces natural increase
• Reinforces natural increase
• Cohort specific implication

deficits)? Net Gains

• Offsets “lost” births?
• Skill or population gain?
• Skill or population gain?

Dual decline = natural d

and Ageing

e/decline? e/decline? s (youth/prime age

decline + net migration loss

Skilled Migrant Cate

Principal Principal 0‐19 ‐ 20‐29 45 20‐29 45 30‐39 36 40‐44 9 40 44 9 45‐49 6 50+ 4 50 4

egory – Ages (11/12)

Secondary Secondary 49 18 18 20 6 4 3

MBIE, 2013

Share of NZ’s Future G Une Une Growth Will Be Most even even

Auckland – Immigran

• Overseas born
• Overseas born plus childre
• Overseas born plus childre

Auc 1996 998,000 2006 1,208,000 2006 1,208,000

nt Dependency 2012

40% n 56% n 56%

ckland Migrant 300,000 (+210,000) 300,000 ( 210,000)

Maré and Coleman, 2011

Ethnicity, Auckland a

Auck Pakeha/European 5 Pakeha/European 5 Asians 2 P ifik 1 Pasifika 1 Maori 1

and Wellington, 2021

kland Wellington 53 75 53 75 27 12 17 9 17 9 12 14

BNZ Employer

• All employers (NZ, repat

p y ( , p

• Family/lifestyle reasons
• Learn English

g

• NZ/repat
• Consider regions
• Consider regions
• Migrant
• Small size/low cosmopolitanis

Survey (2013)

t NZ, migrant) , g )

sm in regions

• 1. Policy/Policy Issue

Should NZ have a population What would that policy look What would that policy look

es

policy? like? like?

• 2. Political/Policy Iss

Immigration Given the changing nature Given the changing nature and demand issues, what a made? made?

• International competition/
• International competition/
• Employer engagement

(

• Not be too restrictive (ie fa

reunification/citizenship)

• Address domestic anxieties

ues

• f both immigration supply
• f both immigration supply

adjustments need to be /retention of skilled labour /retention of skilled labour amily s

3. Political/Policy Iss

Population/Skills Distributio p /

• Auckland’s increasing dom
• Regional imbalances

and

• Regional imbalances – and
• Skills supply

ues

• n

inance decline decline

4. Political/Policy Iss

Tangata Whenua concerns Tangata Whenua concerns Bi l li l i l

• Biculturalism vs multicultu
• Employment displacement
• Diminution of ToW

ues

li ralism t

Are We Too Relia

Risks

• Key (central?) aspect of po
• Key (central?) aspect of po
• Regional implications (unev
• Future competition for prim

labour Benefits

• Geo political re orientation
• Geo‐political re‐orientation
• Appeal (lifestyle brand)
• Diversity dividend(s)

nt on Migration?

pulation policy pulation policy ven, Auckland‐centric) me working age, skilled n