April 2020
Republic lic of Indone nesia ia
Maintain tainin ing Stabi ability lity and Suppor
- rtin
ting Growth wth, Mitigatin igating Covid id-19 Risk sk
April 2020 About ut Investor or Relati ation ons Unit it of the - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Republic lic of Indone nesia ia Maintain tainin ing Stabi ability lity and Suppor ortin ting Growth wth, Mitigatin igating Covid id-19 Risk sk April 2020 About ut Investor or Relati ation ons Unit it of the Republic lic of
Republic lic of Indone nesia ia
Maintain tainin ing Stabi ability lity and Suppor
ting Growth wth, Mitigatin igating Covid id-19 Risk sk
1
About ut Investor
ation
it of the Republic lic of Indone nesia ia
Investor Relations Unit (IRU) of the Republic of Indonesia has been established as a joint effort between Coordinating Ministry of Economic Affairs, Ministry of Finance and Bank Indonesia since 2005. The main objective of IRU is to actively communicate Indonesian economic policy and to address concerns of investors, especially financial market investors. As an important part
measures, IRU maintains a website under Bank Indonesia website which is administered by International Department of Bank Indonesia. However, day-to-day activities of IRU are supported by all relevant government agencies, among others: Bank Indonesia, Ministry of Finance, Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs, Investment Coordinating Board, Ministry of Trade, Ministry of State Owned Enterprises, Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources and Financial Services Authority. IRU also convenes an investor conference call on a quarterly basis, answers questions through email, telephone and may arrange direct visit of banks/financial institutions to Bank Indonesia and other relevant government offices. Published by Investor Relations Unit – Republic of Indonesia Website: http://www.bi.go.id/en/iru/default.aspx Contact: Wiwit Widyastuti (International Department - Bank Indonesia, Phone: +6221 2981 8279) Putri Rizki Yulianti (Fiscal Policy Office - Ministry of Finance, Phone: +6221 345 0012) Subhan Noor (Directorate General of Budget Financing and Risk Management - Ministry of Finance, Phone: +62213510714) Phone: +62213510714) E-mail: contactIRU-DL@bi.go.id This Presentation Book also can be downloaded from: http://www.bi.go.id/en/iru/presentation/red/Default.aspx
2
What’s New in This Edition
S&P Affirm Sov
reign Credit t Rating Indonesi sia at BBB and Revise se Outlook
to Negati tive
…page 7
Authorities’ Concerted Efforts tow toward Covid-19 19
…page 11-18
Bank Indon
Reve verse se Repo Rate te by by 25 bps to to 4.50% and low
red Reserve Requ quire rement t by 200 bps
…page 67-68
Outlook k of Domesti stic c Economy
…page 112
Fiscal Policy Updates
…page 46-56
3
Overvie iew
1 2 3 4 5 6
Institut utiona
erna nanc nce e Effe fectiven enes ess: Accel eler erated ed Refor forms Agen enda da with Institut utiona
emen ent Econom
Strong and Stable e Growth h Prospec ects Remain n Intact External Factor: Improv
ed External Resilien ence Fiscal Perfor
nce e and Flexibility: Pruden ent Fiscal Policy to Combat the COVID-19 19 Pandem emic and Maintaini ning ng Econom
Sustaina nability Monet etary and Financial Factor: Credible e Mone netary Policy Track Recor
d and Favourabl ble Financial Sector Progres essive e Infrastruc uctur ure e Devel elop
ent: Strong Commitmen ent on Accel eler eration
frastructure e Provision
Institut itutio ional al and Government ment Effec ectiv tiven eness: ess: Ac Acceler elerat ated ed Refor
ms Agenda da with th Institut itutio ional al Impr mprovemen ement
5
Improving ing Glob
al Percepti tion
…with recent improvem emen ents on corru ruption
eption
ernance e indicator
1. Source: World Economic Forum – The Global Competitiveness Report 2019; 2. Source: World Bank – Doing Business 2020 Report; 3. Source: World Bank – The Worldwide Governance Indicators 2019 Update; 4. Source: Transparency International – Corruption Perceptions Index 2019 Report
Worldwid ide Gover erna nanc nce e Indic icator
Ease e of Doing Busin iness2 Glob
l Compet etit itive ivenes ess Index ex1 Corruption
ion Index ex4
Higher rank is better Higher score is better Higher rank is better (rankings at the time of annual report publication) Higher rank is better 41 36 45 50 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Rank India Indonesia Philippines Bulgaria Colombia 91 72 73 73 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Indonesia India Philippines Bulgaria Colombia
*New Concepts by using the Global Competitiveness index 4.0 which captures the determinants of long-term growth.52 28 59 51 43 46 15 30 45 60 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Voice and Accountability Political Stability/Absence of Violence Government Effectiveness Regulatory Quality Rule of Law Control of Corruption 38 40 41 41 36 34 42 43 36 37 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Indonesia India Philippines Bulgaria Colombia
6
Conti tinu nuous
emen ent t of Investm tmen ent t Clim imat ate e
…another er leap on Indonesia’s Rank on Ease e of Doing g Busi siness ess (EODB)*
EoDB 2020 2020 Rank EoDB 2019 19 Rank Change in Rank EoDB 2020 2020 Points EoDB 2019 19 Points Change e in Points
Over erall 73 73 73 73 69.6 68.0 1.6 Starting ng a busines ess 140 134 134 6 81.2 81.2 0.0 Dealing ng with Construc uction
Permits 110 112 2 66.8 66.6 0.2 Getting ng Electricity 33 33 33 33 87.3 86.4 0.9 Register ering ng Proper erty 106 100 6 60.0 61.7 1.7 Getting Credit 48 48 44 44 4 70.0 70.0 0.0 Protec ecting ng Minor
nves estor
37 37 51 51 14 70.0 63.3 6.7 Paying ng Taxes 81 81 112 31 75.8 68.0 7.8 Trading ng Acros
ers 116 116 67.5 67.3 0.2 Enfo forcing ng Contracts 139 139 146 7 49.1 47.2 1.9 Resol
ency 38 38 36 36 2 68.1 67.9 0.2
Source: World Bank * Higher rank is better, EoDB 2020 was published in October 2019
7
BBB / Stab able Baa2 a2 / Stab able BBB / Negat ative ve
Feb 2020, Rating Affirmed at Baa2/Stable “The affirmation of the ratings is underpinned by a number of credit strengths – including Indonesia’s robust and stable growth rates and a low government debt burden, preserved by consistent fiscal discipline and emphasis on macroeconomic stability – as well as persistent credit challenges.” April 2020, Rating Affirmed at BBB, Outlook Revised from Stable to Negative “The affirmation reflects Indonesia’s stable institutional settings, strong growth prospects, and historically prudent fiscal policy settings. The negative outlook reflects S&P expectation that Indonesia faces additional fiscal and external risks related to the COVID-19 pandemic in the next 24 months .” January 2020, Rating Affirmed at BBB/Stable Indonesia's rating balances a favourable medium-term growth outlook and a small government debt burden compared with 'BBB’ category peers against challenges that include a strong dependence on external financing, low government revenue, and lagging structural indicators such as governance indicators and GDP per capita.
BBB+ BBB+ / Stab able
January 2020, Rating Upgraded at BBB+/S /Stable “The ratings mainly reflect the country’s solid domestic consumption-led economic growth, restrained budget deficit and public debt, and resilience to external shocks supported by flexible exchange rate and credible monetary policies and accumulation of foreign exchange reserves. Since its previous rating review, JCR has been paying particular attention to the continuing reform initiatives pushed by the administration of President Joko Widodo and the content and progress of the economic policy taken by his second administration which took office in October
expected.”.
Indon
esia ia Has Been n Rated d as Investmen tment t Grad ade e Countr ntry since e 2017
BBB+ / Stab able
March 2020, Rating Upgraded at BBB+/Stable “Indonesia's President Joko Widodo is firmly implementing policies to strengthen economic growth potential, on the back of a political foundation solidified in his second term. Supported by such policy efforts, the economy is expected to continue stable growth over the medium term. Keeping fiscal deficits in check, the government maintains its debt ratio at a low level. Foreign reserves are ample relative to short-term external debts. The country's economic resilience to external shocks is retained under a policy stance that emphasizes macroeconomic stability and fiscal discipline.”
8
Concer erted ed Effor
ts to Mitig tigat ate e Covid-19 Risk
Genera eral Measu sure res
Establishment of a COVID-19 Task Force to Accelerate Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Handling Extension of the emergency status for COVID-19 until 29th May 2020 Permission for civil servants to work from home, while maintaining the continuity of public services Closing and limiting the mobility of Indonesian citizens abroad and foreigners to enter Indonesian territory with strict immigration and health protocols..
5 3 2 1
Evacuation of Indonesian citizens from affected countries and strict quarantine processes with complete medical facilities.
6
Promoting massive prevention of the spread of Covid-19; application of health protocols in public areas, public transportation, and offices; calls for carrying out social distancing and the prohibition of carrying out activities that involve large crowds.
4
Conducting Rapid Test in 17 provinces with positive patients
7
Decentralized tests by increasing the number of Covid-19 test laboratories throughout Indonesia. Providing Designated Hospitals, including additional designated hospital in Galang Island. Utilization of four (4) of ten (10) Wisma Atlet Kemayoran Towers (former Athletes Hotel) as emergency hospital. Establishment of Contingency Plans in the regions level.
12 10 9 8
Preparation of drugs that have been used for Covid-19 patients in China according to doctor's prescription. The drug has been distributed to designated facilities and its stock is continuously being augmented with domestic pharmaceutical production..
13
Preparation of 606 health workers and 192 non-health workers in Wisma Atlet Kemayoran and recruitment of 328 medical volunteers and 2590 non-medical personnel in the field of logistics and operations.
11
Speed up the procurement and distribution of personal protective equipment for designated hospitals and the provision of incentives for medical personnel.
14
9
Governmen nment t Measure ures to Mitigat igate e Covid-19 Risk
Fiscal and Non Fiscal Stimuli
Brought forward the launch of the Pre-Employment Card in Bali, North Sulawesi and the Riau Islands Increased disbursements of the Noncash Food Assistance Program (BPNT) from Rp150,000 to Rp200,000 for a six- month period commencing March 2020 Provided incentives for domestic and international travellers Discounted the price of aviation fuel at airports located around nine travel destinations for March-May 2020
6 4 2 1
Reduced the air passenger service fee (PSF) by 20% for March-May 2020
5
Subsidised or provided grants totalling Rp3.3 trillion to local governments affected by lower tax revenues food service activities
7
Provided a stimulus package for housing in the form of an Rp800 billion subsidy as well as a subsidy on down payments totalling Rp700 billion
3
Non-Fisca scal Stimuli
Relaxation of Income Tax (PPh Article 21) Relaxation of Income Tax on Imports (PPh Article 22) Relaxation of Value Added Tax (VAT) Restitution
4 2 1
Relaxation of Income Tax (PPh Article 25)
3
Reduce and simplify restrictions on export activities to maintain export performance and competitiveness
1
Reduce and simplify restrictions on import activities to ensure the availability of raw materials
2
Fiscal Stimuli Phase 2 Fiscal Stimuli Phase 1
10
Bank Indonesia’s Measur ures es to Mitigat igate e Covid-19 Risk
To maintain Monet etary and Financial Mark rket et Stabi bility
Strengthening the intensity of triple intervention policy to maintain rupiah exchange rate stability in line with the currency's fundamental value and market mechanisms Reducing the foreign currency reserve requirement ratio for conventional commercial banks from 8% to 4%, effective 16th March 2020. Reducing the rupiah reserve requirement ratio by 50bps for banks engaged in export-import financing activity in coordination with the Government. Expanding the types of underlying transactions available to foreign investors as hedging alternatives against rupiah holdings in Indonesia.
4 3 2
Measu sure res s Launched ed on March ch 2, 2020 Measu sure res s Launched on March ch 18-19, 19, 2020
1
Source: Bank Indonesia
Global investors may utilise global and domestic custodian banks for investment activity in Indonesia.
5
Strengthening the intensity of triple intervention policy to maintain rupiah exchange rate stability in line with the currency's fundamental value and market mechanisms. Extending the SBN repo tenor to 12 months and providing daily auctions to loosen rupiah liquidity in the banking industry. Increasing the frequency of FX swap auctions for 1, 3, 6 and 12- month tenors from three times per week to daily auctions in
Expediting the enforcement of domestic vostro rupiah accounts for foreign investors as underlying transactions for Domestic NDF, thus increasing hedging alternatives against rupiah holdings.
5 3 2 1
Expanding the incentive of a 50bps looser daily rupiah reserve requirement beyond banks that are engaged in export-import financing to include the financing of MSMEs and other priority sectors.
6
Strengthening foreign currency term deposit instruments in order to enhance foreign currency liquidity management in the domestic market.
4
Strengthening payment system policy to support COVID-19 mitigation efforts .
7
11
Governm rnmen ent t Measure ures to Miti tigat gate Covid id-19 Risk
Upda dates es on Stimuli 1 and 2
No StimuliPolicy Update
STIMULI 1 1 Front-loading of Government Spending Accelerating the process of disbursing Capital Expenditure, accelerating the appointment of treasury officials, accelerating the implementation of tenders, etc. Accelerating disbursement of social assistance spending. Transfer to Regional and Village Funds. 2 Expansion of Staple Food Cards to increase the benefits (IDR 150 thousand / month → IDR 200 thousand / month) Has been carried out by the Ministry of Social Affairs as of March 2020. 3 Expansion of the target for housing interest subsidies with an additional house volume
still in the process based on the proposal of the Ministry of Public Works and Public Works
STIMULI 2 1 Relaxation of Income Tax Article 21 Income Tax Borne by the Government (DTP), exemption of Article 22 Income Tax Import, Reduction of Income Tax Article 25, VAT refunds are accelerated 2 Simplification and Acceleration of the Exim Process Simplification and reduction of export and import restrictions (manufacturing, food and medical support), acceleration of the export-import process for reputable traders, and export-import services through the National Logistic Ecosystem.
Source: Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs
12
Econom nomic ic Po Polic licies ies Taken en in Respon
e to Covid-19 Pandem demic ic
as of Apri ril 2020
Source: Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs
test Update 22 22/4: Expansion of business classification coverage for Fiscal Incentives.
business continuity (minimizing layoffs), will minimize the spill-over effect of the COVID-19 pandemic hence limiti ting the impact to to the banki king system em.
Health th Safety ty Net Social Safety ety Net Econom
c Safety ty Net
Nationa nal Econom
ery Measur ures es
Budget et Support
5 T Budget et Support rt: Rp110 T Budget et Support
0,1 1 T Budget et Support
50 T
Health Workers
Equipment (PPE, ventilators, masks, etc.)
450 VA and 900 VA
Operations
Adjustment
Law No. 1 Tahun 2020
Goods Taxes, Corporate Tax Reduction and the Acceleration of VAT Restitution
(Simplification and Acceleration of the Exim Process)
Credit (KUR)
Policies Rp405, 05,1 1 trillion
(USD24. 24.6 6 billion
Total Budget et Alloc
13
Governm rnmen ent t Measure ures to Miti tigat gate Covid id-19 Risk
Provision of Economic Stimulus for the Real Sector Safety Net
Source: Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs
Social Safety ty Net Real Sector tor Safety ty Net
Financial Sector Safe fety Net IMPACT CTED GROUPS PS COVID-19 IMPACT CT POLICY CY MAIN POLICI CIES
*
: Expans nsion
cy in the 2nd Stimulus
1
*
: Expans nsion
cal Incenti ntives in PMK-23/2020
INDIVIDUAL/ HOUSEHO HOLD
difficulties
MSMEs
CORPO PORATIONS
production decline
layoffs
Restructuring
REAL SECTOR
markets, exchange rates
FINAN ANCI CIAL AL SECTOR
Allowance / Postponement / Withholding Tax (Article 21/22/25 Income Tax, VAT) Loan Allowance / Delay Payment, Credit Restructuring Relaxation of Rules and Licensing, Ease of Doing Business and Investment Process and Service Acceleration, Administrative Reduction and Costs Special Credit Facilitation for Increasing Working Capital and Maintaining Business
** * * *
2 3 4 5
14
Econom nomic ic Stim imulu ulus Program grams for r MSMEs Es and Cooperat erativ ives es
Source: Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs
1. 1. Inter eres est subsidy dy and recap guarant ntee ee relief programs (KUR, PMN, Pegadaian)
fety Net (Rp
eres est subsidy and installmen ent paymen ent following the KUR scheme
elling ng agent nt to access KUR and PIP
Rp 6.1 T (19.5 million Customers);
Rp 2.8 T (6.5 million Customers);
Rp 5.3 T (10 million Customers). 2. 2. The Saving ng and Loan Cooper eratives es (KSP) P) is facilitated through LPDB, where the amount and total is taken from the budget et realloc
and refo focus ussing ng of the Ministry of Cooperatives and SMEs. 3. Financing for rural banks, PNM, Pe Pegada daian (pawnshop hops) is accessed through the Financial Safe fety Net that is being prepared (draft of Cluster IV GR is under process) 4. Exemption of MSME income e tax (to 0%) for a period
nths hs: Tariff decrease in MSME's Final Income Tax from 0.5% 0% (fiscal impact: Rp. 2.4 T) 5. 5. The use of Warun rung (stalls) for food distribution is coordinated by Ministry of Social Affairs and OJK through the Laku ku Pandai program.
15
Econo nomic ic Stimu muli i for the Manu nufacturi uring ng Industry y Sect ctor
imuli i 2)
Tax Incentives: Article 21 Income Tax, Article 22 Import Income Tax, Article 25 Income Tax, VAT
Source: Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs
PMK-23 23
Finance Ministerial Regulation 23 23/PM PMK.03 03/2020 on March 21, 2020 concerning Tax Incen entives fo for Taxpayer ers Affec fected ed by by Corona Virus Outbr brea eak, effective on April 1, 2020 Po Policy Related ed Sector Impact 1. Article 21 Income Tax will be Borne e by by the Gov
ernm nmen ent for 6 months for workers with a gross income of not more than 200 million rupiah
Provide additional income for workers in the manufacturing sector to maintain purchasing power. 2. 2. Exemption
Import for 6 months
The stimulus for the industry is to maintain the pace of imports. 3. 3. Reduc uction
30% for 6 months
Domestic economic stability can be maintained and exports are expected to increase. 4. VAT refunds are acceler erated ed for 6 months for:
5 billion)
Through the accelerated refunds, Taxpayers can optimize cash management.
16
Proposed ed Expans nsion ion of Fiscal al Incen enti tives es for the Real Sector
Expansion of PMK-23: Addition of Sectors Other than Manufacturing Industries in PMK-23/2020
Source: Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs
No KBLI Categ egory
Number of proposed KBLI 1 Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries 100 2 Mining and excavation 17 3 Processing Industry 127 4 Procurement of electricity, gas, steam / hot water, and cold air 3 5 Water Management, Waste Water Management, Waste Management and Recycling, and Remediation Activities 1 6 Construction 60 7 Wholesale and retail trade; Car and Motorcycle Repair and Maintenance 193 8 Transportation and Warehousing 85 9 Provision of Accommodation and Provision of Food and Beverages 27 10 Information and communication 36 11 Financial and Insurance Activities 3 12 Real Estate 3 13 Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities 22 14 Rental and Leasing Activities without Option Rights, Employment, Travel Agencies and Other Business Supports 19 15 Education 5 16 Health and Social Activities 5 17 Arts, Entertainment and Recreation 52 18 Other Services 3 Total 761 761 19 19 Compani nies es at Bond nded ed Zone V
Addition of “Companies es at Bonded ed Zone” in PMK-23.
NOTE: Total number of KBLI in PMK-23: 440 KBLI Number of additional proposal: 761 KBLI (including proposed 118 KBLI for incentives expansion Total combined KBLI: 1.083 83 KBLI
17
Governm rnmen ent t Measure ures to Miti tigat gate Covid id-19 Risk
Government Regulation In Lieu of Law No.1 2020
Source: Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs
Regul ulates es two topics: (1) Nationa
et (APBN) PBN) and (2) Financial Sector Po Policy
National Budget t (APBN)
1. Relaxation Deficit exceeds 3%, but starting in 2023 it returns to the maximum level of 3%. 2. Relaxation is related to the allocation/reallocation of expenditure between institutions, between functions, and between programs and mandatory spending. 3. Relaxation of allocation / reallocation of Regional Government Expenditures. 4. Lending to LPS. 5. Issuance of SUN and SBSN can be purchased by BI, BUMN, corporate investors and / or retail investors. 6. Use of alternative budget sources for example SAL, education endowment funds, and funds managed by the Public Service Agency. 7. Taxation Policy: a) Decrease in Corporate Income Tax Rates gradually to 20% starting in 2022; b) Taxation Incentives in the Capital Market for public ownership <40%; c) Taxation of Electronic Transactions; d) Extension of tax administration time; e) Customs facilities in the context of COVID-19.
Financial Sector tor Policy
1. Improved Coordination among KSSK members 2. Provide the necessary authority to 4 institutions to prevent a crisis (forward looking) in the KSSK forum for example to issue instruments, BI buys SUN on the primary market, lending to LPS and OJK may request a merger or consolidation of Financial Services Institutions. 3. Foreign exchange management (LLD) management for residents 4. Increase public confidence without causing moral hazard.
18
Governm rnmen ent t Measure ures to Miti tigat gate Covid id-19 Risk
Budget Refocusing Policy
Source: Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs
I. I. Presiden ential Reg egul ulation
Perpres es) ) No 7/2020 on Taskf kfor
e to Mana nage e COVID-19 Outbrea eak → Rene newed ed throug
esiden dential Reg egul ulation
(Per Perpres es) ) No No 9/2020 1. Answer to the President → Director (Chair: Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs) and Implementer (Chair: Head of Indonesian National Board for Disaster Management), focusing on accelerating the mitigation of COVID-19 through synergy between ministries and government 2. Funding comes from the state budget, regional budget, and other legal sources II. II. Presiden ential Instruction
es) ) No 4/2020 concerni ning ng Refocusing of Activities, Reallocation of Ministry/Ag Agen ency Budg dget, and d Procurem emen ent of Goods
es in the e Framewor
k of Mitigating ng COVID-19 Outbreak k and Mini nist stry of Financ nce Circul ular (SE) No 6/2020 on
sing ng Activity and d Reallocation n of Ministry/Agen ency Budg dget et in the e Framewor
ng COVID-19 Outbrea eak k 1. Minister / Head of Institution prioritizes the use of budget allocations for the acceleration of mitigating COVID-19 outbreak in accordance with COVID-19 Handling Protocol 2. Done through a budget revision mechanism (done quickly, simply and accountably) III. III. Po Policy to suppor
ust region
nsfers fo for handl ndling Covid-19 19 1. Minister of Finance Regulation (PMK)19/2020 concerning Distribution and Use of DBH, DAU, and DID TA 2020 in the context of COVID- 19 Countermeasures; 2. Minister of Finance Decree (KMK) 6/2020 concerning Distribution of Physical DAK on Health and BOK in the framework of Prevention and/or Handling of COVID-19 3. Permendagri 20/2020 on acceleration of COVID-19 Mitigation in the Scope of Regional Government
19
3.2 3.5 3.7 3.7 4.5 10.1 10.1 11.6 11.9 23.0 25.2 32.9 36.4 44.6 47.8 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 Australia Germany Singapore Korea Taiwan Malaysia Myanmar Mexico Philippines US Indonesia Thailand Vietnam China India 31.31 34.47 23.61 26.94 24.99 26.57 31.27 34.52 22.48 27.21 24.95 26.34 31.78 34.55 23.14 29.56 25.31 26.26 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 India Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand Vietnam 2018 2019e 2020e
50 100 150 200 250 300 Billion USD 2018 2017 22.5 25.2 26.3 31.9 32.1 34.2 36.4 36.4 38.5 39.2 39.8 48.1 48.7 58.3 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Myanmar Taiwan South Korea Philippines Hong Kong Malaysia Australia Japan Thailand Singapore Vietnam Indonesia India China
Indon
esia ia Remains ins the Investme tment nt Desti tinati nation n of Choic ice
1. Source: The Economist – Asia Business Outlook Survey 2019 2. Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, Database October 2019 3. Source: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) – World Investment Report 2019 4. Source: JBIC – Outlook for Japanese Foreign Direct Investment (30th Annual Survey)
Total Inve vestment / GDP (%)
Indonesia sia Enjoys s Large Investm stments ts Rela lativ tive to Peers s within thin the Regio ion2 JBIC: Among ASEAN AN countr trie ies, s, Indo donesia sia is one of the most st preferred d place for busin siness ss investm stment t (Decembe ber 2019)4 The Economist: ist: Indonesia sia rounds ds out the top five of Asia ian economie ies s that t can look forwa ward to increased d investm stment t spending
UNCTA TAD: Indo donesia sia is liste sted d in the top 20 host t econo nomie ies s base sed d on FDI inflo lows, s, 2017 and d 2018 (June 2019)3
(x) = 2017 ranking20
Mediu ium-Ter erm National tional Develop lopmen ent t Plan n (RPJMN) MN) 2020 2020-2024
President’s Vision: "The Establishment of an Advanced Sovereign, Independent and Personality Based
eration"
Source: Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs
1
Improving the Qual ality of the Indonesian an Labour Force
2
Achievi ving Productive, , Independent and Comp mpetitive Economi mic Structure
3
Attaining Equitable and Prosperous Na National Devel velopme ment
4
Achieving Sustai ainab able Envi vironme mental Clima mate
5
Devel veloping Cultural al Progress Reflecting the Nat ation's Personal ality
6
Deve velopinga a Dignified and Trustworthy Legal SystemFree from Co Corruption
7
Protection of All Nations and Provision of Security to All Citize zens
8
Attai aining Good, , Effective, , and Reliable Governance
9
Achievi ving Synergy of Gover vernme mental al Frame mework with the Regional Gove vernment Strengthening Economi mic Resilience to Achieve ve Superior Economi mic Growth Developing More Remo mote Regions to to Reduce e Economi mic Gap aps and Improve Equality Imp mproveme ment of Qual ality and Comp mpetitiveness of the Lab abourForce Engag aging in Mental al Revo volution and Culture Devel velopme ment Strengthening Infras astructure to Support Economic Devel velopme ment and Improve ve Basic Servi vices Conservation of Environment, Supporting Climat mate Chan ange, and Enhan ancing Disaster Resilience Enhan ancing Political al, Legal, Defense and Stab ability and Tran ansformi ming Public Servi vices
1
HR HR Develop lopment ent
2
Infrastruc ucture Develop lopment ent
3
Regula ulation ion Simp mplif ific ication
5
Economic ic Tran ansformation
4
Simpli lific icatio ionof Bureauc ucracy
President‘s Missi sion
Top p 5 Presidential tial Prioriti ties 7 7 RPJMN MN Developm
21
Simplify lifying ing Regulations lations throu
gh Omnib ibus us Laws
Omnibu bus s Laws s Gro roup a Dive verse rse Range ge of Issu sues es into
gisl slation,
ed at Crea eating g Jobs s and Empoweri ering g SMEs. s.
1Under discussionSource: Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs
Financial Sector1 T axes
Investment
Labour
Omnibus Law Priori
1) Simplification of Licensing 2) Investment Requirements 3) Employment 4) Ease, Empowerment and Protection of MSMEs 5) Ease of Doing Business 6) Research and Innovation Support 7) Government Administration 8) Imposition of Sanctions 9) Land Acquisition 10) Government Investment and Projects 11) Economic Zone
11 Clusters of Omn mnibus Law Cipta Lapangan anKerja (Job Creat ation) 6 Pillars of Omn mnibus Law Perpaj ajak akan (Taxa xation) 1) Investment Funding 2) Territorial System 3) Personal Taxpayer 4) Taxpayer Compliance 5) Equity of Business 6) Taxation Facility Following the inauguration of his second presidential term in October 2019, President Joko Widodo announced his administration’s plans to continue regulatory reform by focusing on initiatives such as developing a dynamic and qualified workforce, promoting industry cooperation through technology, further enhancing infrastructure development and economic reform as well as simplifyingregulationsand bureaucracy. To achieve such ends, President Widodo’s Government subsequently prepared three bills of omnibus laws, namely an omnibus bill on job creation, an omnibus bill on development and strengtheningthe financial sectorand an omnibusbill on tax provision. Omnibuslaws refer to laws that groupdiverseand unrelatedissues which are drawn into a bill which is accepted in a single vote by a legislature.
22
The Econ
ic Po Polic licy Packages ages
“To improve national industry competitiveness, export and investment to generate significant economic growth”
Phase e III (7 Oct t ’15) Financial services facilitation, export financing and elimination of business unnecessary burden Phase e IV (15 Oct t ’15) Social safety net and betterment of people welfare Phase e V (22 Oct t ’15) Improving industry and investment climate through tax incentives and deregulation on sharia banking
Harm rmonizing g Regulat ations Simplifying g Bure reau aucrat ratic Process Ensuring g Law Enforceability
Phase e VI (5 Nov ’15) Stimulating economic activities in border areas and facilitating strategic commodities availability Phase e I (9 Sept ’15) Improving national industry competitiveness Phase e II (29 Sept ’15) Easing permit requirement and simplifying export proceeds requirement Phase e VII (7 De Dec ’15) Stimulating business activities in labor-intensive industries nation-wide through incentives in the form of accelerating land certification process for individuals Phase e VIII (21 De Dec ’15) Resolving land acquisition disputes, intensifying domestic oil production, stimulating domestic parts and aviation industries Phase e IX (27 7 Jan ’16) Accelerating electricity generation, stabilizing meat prices and improving rural–urban logistics sector Phase e X (11 Feb ’16) Revising the Negative investment List and improving protection for SMEs Phase e XI (29 Mar ’16) Stimulating national economy through facilitation to SMEs and industries Phase e XII II (28 28 Apr’16) Improving Indonesia’s rank on Ease of Doing Business (EODB) Phase e XIII (24 Aug ’16) Low Cost Housing for Low-Income Communities Phase e XI XIV (10 Nov ’16) Roadmap for E-commerce
Source: Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs
Phase e XV (15 Jun ’17) Improving logistics In addition
y Packa kages es, on Augus ust 31, 2017 the Gover ernm nment ent has issued ued a Presidenti ential Regul ulation
91/2017 2017 for enhanc ncing ng busines ness licens ense e service e stand ndard Phase e XVI (1 (16 Nov ’18) Improving the competitiveness and domestic economy
23
Improving ing the Competit etitiv iven enes ess and Domes esti tic Econ
The e 16th
th Econom
y Package ge has been launched hed
Source: Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs
TAX HOLIDA DAY EXPANSI SION
Background
In order to further increase investment value in Indonesia, there is a need for expansion of sector and standard classification of Indonesian Business Fields (KBLI) that are given tax holiday, complemented with a process simplification to receive the tax holiday according to the Online Single Submission (OSS). Objec ectives es and benefi efits 1) Increasing investment and strengthening the industrial sectors from the downstream to the upstream through the expansion of the business sector, KBLI’s pioneer industries, and Special Economic Zones (SEZ) that can receive tax holiday facilities 2) Increasing the process of convenience of filing process and tax holiday facilities provision
EXPORT PROCEEDS DS (DHE) SCHEME
Tax Rates es on Deposit Inter eres est Incom24
Other er Progr gres ess on Econom nomic ic Po Polic icy Packages kages
29 Provinces have set 2016 Minimum Wage System in accordance to the Government Regulation (GR) No. 78/2015
Fa Fair, Simpl plifi fied ed & & Pro roject ectabl ble e Wage e Syst stem em
IZ’s: Kendal, Demak, and Ungaran
in 2017
Indu dust strial Zone Deve evelopment ent of Spesi esial Econ
e (SEZ)
Investment commitments in SEZ up to 2017 reach 41 T, with 3 hour licenses already applied in 4 SEZ’s Administrators in 2017 52 Bonded Logistic Center has been launched to support various industries
Deregul egulation
Logistics cs Sector
25
Investm tmen ent t Incentiv ntives es to Boost Industr try Sector
BUSINESS NESS EXPANSI SION
emption ion or relief ief of impor
, machin iner ery or equip uipmen ment for production purposes that can not be produced domestically;
emption ion or reli lief ef of impor
eria ials ls or auxil ilia iary mater erial l for production purposes for a certain period of time and certain conditions;
emption ion or suspen ension ion of VAT on the e import of capit ital l good
machiner inery or equip uipment ent for production purposes that have not been produced domestically for a certain period of time;
eprec ecia iatio ion or amor
ization ion (part of tax allowance); and
erty tax reli lief ef, especially for certain business sectors in certain regions;
Tax holi liday of corporate income tax in a certain amount and time
PIONEER INDUSTR TRIES SPECIAL ECONOMI MIC ZONE
llection ion of VAT and Luxury Good
les Tax (PPnBM), ),
emption, ion,
lowance e and Tax Holi liday,
ension ion of Impor
level
INDUSTR TRIAL ZONE FREE TRADE ZONES S AND PORTS MICRO, SMALL, MEDIUM M ENTERPRISE SES (MSMES) E-COMME MERCE
emption ion on import or delivery of capital goods,
emption
lowance e and Tax Holi liday Exemp emption ion of:
es Tax (PPnBM)
Decrea easing ing MSMEs Es Tax from 1% to 0.5% of gross revenue
non-small l entrepreneurs through the market place will be subject to 0.5% incom
e tax and 1% VAT
ll entrep epren eneu eurs through the market place will be subject to 0.5% incom
e tax
Source: Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs
26
New Tax Holida day Po Polic licy*
to boost
stry y sector
Taxpayer er Pioneer Industry with minimum investment value of 1 trillion Rupiah (minimum investment value of 500bn Rupiah for telecommunication sector) Corporate te Income e Tax (CIT) reduction rate Conces ession ion period iod Transit ition
Afte ter Tax Holiday Not available 100% (single rate)
discretion 1. 500Bn – 1Tn : 5 years 2. 1Tn – 5Tn : 7 years 3. 5Tn – 15Tn : 10 years Pioneer Industry with minimum investment value of 500bn Rupiah Applied to 8 industry groups: (i) upstream basic metal industry; (ii) oil and gas refinery industry; (iii) organic basic chemicals industry; (iv) machinery industry; (v) plantation, forest, and fishery products processing industry; (vi) telecommunication, information and communication industry; (vii) marine transportation; and (viii) economic infrastructure Applied to 17 industry groups: (i) upstream base metal; (ii) oil and gas refinery; (iii) petrochemical (oil, gas,
(vi) pharmaceutical materials; (vii) semiconductor and other components; (viii) communication devices components; (ix) medical devices components; (x) machine manufacturing for industry; (xi) machine main components manufacturing; (xii) robotic components manufacturing; (xiii) ship components manufacturing; (xiv) airplane components manufacturing; (xv) train components manufacturing; (xvi) power plants; and (xvii) economic infrastructure PROVISI ISION BEFORE RE AFTER ER 5 – 20 years depends on the investment value (in IDR): 4. 15Tn – 30Tn : 15 years 5. ≥ 5Tn : 20 years 50% CIT reduction for the next 2 years 10 – 100% Tax allowance not provided Tax allowance for business expansion can be provided with terms and conditions applied
Source: Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs *) MoF has issued a new Tax Holiday policy through Regulation No. 35/PMK.010/2018 (PMK-35) dated 4 April 2018.
27
Enhanc ancing ing Busine ness Licen ense e Servic vice e Standar ndard
Presi siden dential Re Regulation
Accelera erate e Ease se of Doing g Busi sines ess s has been en launched hed
Source: Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs
Polic icy Goals ls
Improve efficient, streamlined, & integrated business license service standards Accelerate the business licensing process Provide business licensing process assurance in terms of the costs and lead times Increase coordination & synergy between central & regional government Overcome the barriers to doing business in Indonesia Implement integrated licensing process (single submission)
Main n Polic icy
Forming a Task Force to identify &
barriers Implementing a licensing checklist for Special Economic Zones (KEK), Free Trade Zones (FTZ), Industrial Zones & Tourist Zones Utilizing data sharing
Business license regulatory reforms Implementation of the Single Submission system
1st
st Phase
2nd
nd Phase
Note: 1st and 2nd Phase are implemented in parallel
28
Imp mproving ving Inves estment ent Clima mate
Online Single Submissi ssion (OSS) S) Has Been Launched...
Source: Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs
OSS is a web-based business licensing system intended to cut the red tape involved in obtaining business permits and integrated between the central government and regional administrations
Lorem Ipsum Suitable for all category, Environm
ent & Forestry Sector Electricity Sector Public Works & Housing Sector Health h Sector
Indus ustry Sector Marine ne & Fisher ery Sector Medicine ne & Food Sector Transpor
Sector Trade Sector Infor
Communi nication
Sector Other Sector Sectors The Advant ntage of Using ng OSS Business licenses can be secured in under an hour Standardized business licenses are available Ellectronically integrated The whole licensing process is monitored by the Task Force More practical Accessible at anytime and anywhere
29
(Pusat Logistik Berikat/PLB) is a facility provided by Ministry
Finance as part
the implementation of the 1st Economic Policy Package. PLB facility aims to improve efficiency and reduce the cost of transportation and logistics in Indonesia; support the growth of the domestic industry, including small and medium industries; increase investment; and to make Indonesia to become a logistics hub in Asia Pacific.
To To date, 52 Bo Bonded Logistic stic Center has been launched to to support va variou
ries.
Improving ing Investme tment nt Climat ate
…Bonded Logistic Center to Improve Indonesia’s Competitiveness
Oil il and ga gas, s, and mining industry Food & bev ever erages es industry Auto- motive e industry Pe Persona nal care/ home e care industry Tex extile e (cotton)
indust stry Small and medium um industry Synthet hetic tex extile e (chemi emical substanc nces es) industry.
Bonded Logistic Center
Heavy Equipmen ent industry Defen fence e industry Aircraft MRO indust stry
30
Improving ing Investme tment nt Climat ate e
…revising the Negative Investment List
1 For total project value of IDR10bn and aboveBefore
Cold storage Restaur urant nts, Bars Pha harmaceut utic ical l Raw Materia ials ls Manuf nufacturin ing Sports Center, Film lm Processing ing Lab, Crum umb Rubber
Revi vision of "Par artnership" " category to refer to partnership with Micro, Smal all and Medium m Enterprises (MSMEs) Gran andfat ather Law: If a particular sector is tightened in future, existing foreign inves vestor does not need to comp mply with tighter stak ake Key Reforms ms in Negative Foreign Inves vestme ment List Strengthen impleme mentat ation of negat ative inves vestme ment law through active roles from m ministries, agencies and regional gover vernme ments
100% 49% 100% 51% 100% 85% 100% 95% 100% 33% 67% 51% 67% 67% 55% 67% 65% 67%
Distrib ibut utio ion, n, Warehous housing ing Priv ivate Museum um, Catering ing, apparel l Manuf nufacturin ing, Exhib ibit itio ions ns & Convent ntio ions ns Toll l Road Operator, Telecommunic unicatio ion n Testin ing Company ny Consult ultanc ncy for Construc uctio ion1 Telecom
icatio ion Prov
ider with h Integrated Servic ices Professio iona nal l Traini ining ng, Golf lf Cour urse Mana nagement nt, Air Trans nsport Support Servic ices, Travel l Bureau
After Before After Before After Before After Before After Before After Before After Before After Before After Before After 33% 49%
Introd
ion of New Foreig eign Owner ership ip Regula lation ion for Strateg egic ic Sector
Source: Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM)
31
Investme tment nt Realizati ization
2020) 20)
IDR R tn
2013 2014 2015
Direc ect Inves estmen ents
2016
Mining ing Housing ing, Industria ial l Estate, e, and Offic ice e Buil ilding ing Food Industry Elec ectric icit ity, , Gas, , and Water er Supply ly US$602. 602.9 mn
US$1, 1,523. 523.8 8 mn mn US$298. 298.4 mn mn US$482. 482.7 mn mn US$868. 868.6 mn mn US$806. 806.9 mn mn Trans nsportation, ion, Wareh ehous use, e,
and Telec ecom
ication ion
50.9%
US$569. 569.4 mn mn
81.3% 43.1% 21.5% 22.1% 36.5% 149.1% Invest estment ent Re Realization
Top 8 FDI Reali lization ion by Sectors (Q1-2020 vs Q1-2019)
Source: Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM), compared to Q1-2019 period
2017
Rp145.4 T Rp159.4 T IDR98tn tn 434 434,463 463
9.6% 15.6%
9.2% 29.3%
Q1-201 2016 Q1-201 2017 Q1-201 2019 Q1-20 2020 20 Q1-201 2016 Q1-201 2017 Q1-201 2019 Q1-20 2020 20
*
* * person 37 375,982 IDR210.7tn tn
8.0%
Q1-201 2019 Q1-20 2020 20
IDR195.1tn tn IDR87.2tn IDR107.9tn tn IDR112.7tn tn Chem emic ical l and Pharmaceu eutic ical l Industry
Metal, , Excep ept Machiner nery, , and Equip ipmen ent Industry
2018 2019
Food Crop
Plantation ions, , and Lives estoc
US$478. 478.8 mn
120.5%
98.0 112.7 210.7 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1 FDI DDI TOTAL 2020 decreasing
Econom
ic Factor
Strong and Stable able Growth wth Prospect
s Remain main Intac act t
33
Conduciv ducive e Envir iron
nt Underp derpinn inning ing Strong
th Funda damen entals tals
Larges est t Economy my in South th East t Asia 4th Most t Populous countr try in the World; 64% in producti tive ve age Managea eable e Inflati tion Rate te Rising Middle e Class and Affluen ent t Custo tomer ers
From m comm mmodity-bas ased to manufac acturing and servi vice sectors via a infras astructure developme ment From m consump mption-led to inves vestme ment-led growth via a a stronger manufac acturing sector and more investme ment initiatives Policies to maintai ain purchas asing power to stimulat ate dome mestic economy my in the midst of weak akening macroeconomic conditions Budget reform m as a a part of larger economi mic reform initiat ative ve Tax base to be broad adened from m
dependency on comm mmodities Fuel subsidies significantly reduced and spending redirected to more productive ve allocation Prudent debt manag agement
Refo form rm-Ori rien ented ed Administra ration
Three main sources of finan ancing for inves vestment needs: Stat ate and regional al budget, Stat ate Owned Enterprises and PPP Continuing from m 2015 policy, infras astructure will be higher than an fuel subsidy Fiscal al and non-fiscal al incentives to attrac act infras astructure inves vestme ment and promo mote PPP Infrastructure spending focused on basic infrastructure projects
Large and Stable Econom
Consisten tent t Budget Reform rm New Econom
c Structu ture re High Infrast structu ture re Investme stments
34
Indonesia’s Strong GDP
Growth Pros
ect Stron
%
Institutions 2020 GDP growth (%YoY) 2020 Budget 5.3 Bank Indonesia around 2,3 IMF (WEO April 2020) 0.5 World Bank (GEP April 2020) 2.1 ADB (ADO April 2020) 2.5 Consensus Forecast (April 2020) 2.1
Favou
e GDP Growth Comp mpared ed to Peer ers2
1. Source: Central Bureau of Statistics of Indonesia (BPS), ** Including non-profit household consumption 2. Source: World Economic Outlook Database – October 2019; * indicates estimated figure %
maintained in Indonesia. For the year 2019, solid economic growth was recorded at 5.02% in 2019, albeit down slightly from 5.17% in 2018. The main driver of economic growth in 2019 was domestic demand, as export performance declined. In the fourth quarter of 2019, economic growth stood at 4.97% (yoy), down slightly from 5.02% (yoy) in the previous period.
exports languished on dwindling global demand and sliding international commodity prices. Domestic demand was influenced by stable household consumption, which grew 5.04% in 2019, relatively unchanged from the 5.05% posted in 2018. Household consumption was maintained in line with controlled inflation and upbeat consumer confidence.
institutions serving households (NPISH) to 10.62% from 9.10% in 2018. Domestic demand was also buoyed by strong investment performance, building investment in particular which grew 5.37% in the reporting period, similar to the 5.41% recorded in 2018. Services in the tertiary sector were the main locomotive of economic growth in 2019, led by communications and information, financial services and insurance as well as other services.
0.04 3.83 3.27 (2.07) (0.16) 3.74 3.31 (1.73) (0.36) 4.01 3.14 (1.81) (0.30) 4.01 3.19 (1.70) (0.41) 4.21 3.09 (1.69) (0.52) 4.20 3.06 (1.74) 5.12 4.94 4.93 5.05 4.82 4.74 4.77 5.17 4.92 5.18 5.01 4.94 5.01 5.01 5.06 5.19 5.065.275.175.185.075.055.024.97
1.0 3.0 5.0 7.0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 QoQ YoY 3.7 3.2 3.4 3.6 6.1 7.0 5.0 5.1 5.7 6.2 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019* 2020* Bulgaria Colombia India Indonesia Philippines
35
GDP P Growth th Breakdo akdown
GDP GDP Grow
By sectors 2015 2015 2016 2016 2017 2017 2018 2018 2019 2019 Q1 Q1 Q2 Q2 Q3 Q3 Q4 Q4 Tot. Q1 Q1 Q2 Q2 Q3 Q3 Q4 Q4 Tot. Q1 Q1 Q2 Q2 Q3 Q3 Q4 Q4 Tot. Q1 Q1 Q2 Q2 Q3 Q3 Q4 Q4 Tot Q1 Q1 Q2 Q2 Q3 Q3 Q4 Q4 Tot Agriculture, forestry, and fishery 3.7 6.5 2.9 1.6 3.8 1.5 3.5 3.2 5.5 3.4 7.1 3.3 2.8 2.4 3.9 3.4 4.7 3.6 3.8 3.9 1.8 5.3 3.1 4.3 3.6 Mining and Quarrying 0.6 (3.6) (4.4) (6.0) (3.4) 1.2 1.0 0.2 1.4 0.9 (1.3) 2.1 1.8 0.0 0.7 1.1 2.6 2.7 2.2 2.2 2.3 (0.7) 2.3 0.9 1.2 Manufacturing 4.1 4.2 4.6 4.4 4.3 4.7 4.6 4.5 3.3 4.3 4.3 3.5 4.9 4.5 4.3 4.6 3.9 4.4 4.2 4.3 3.9 3.5 4.1 3.7 3.8 Construction 6.0 5.4 6.8 7.1 6.4 6.8 5.1 5.0 4.2 5.2 6.0 7.0 7.0 7.2 6.8 7.4 5.7 5.8 5.6 6.1 5.9 5.7 5.6 5.8 5.8 Wholesale and Retail Trade, Repair of Car and Motorcycle 3.8 1.6 1.4 3.5 2.5 4.3 4.3 3.7 3.9 4.0 4.6 3.5 5.2 4.5 4.5 5.0 5.2 5.3 4.4 5.0 5.2 4.6 4.4 4.2 4.6 Transportation and Storage 6.3 6.0 7.0 7.5 6.7 7.4 6.5 8.2 7.6 7.4 8.1 8.8 8.9 8.2 8.5 8.5 8.7 5.7 5.5 7.1 5.5 5.9 6.7 7.6 6.4 Information and communication 9.7 9.3 10.6 9.2 9.7 7.6 9.3 8.9 9.6 8.9 10.5 11.1 8.8 8.3 9.6 7.8 5.1 8.1 7.1 7.0 9.1 9.6 9.2 9.7 9.4 Financial service 8.6 2.6 10.3 12.8 8.6 9.3 13.6 9.0 4.2 8.9 6.0 5.9 6.1 3.8 5.5 4.3 3.1 3.1 6.2 4.2 7.2 4.5 6.1 8.5 6.6 Other Services* 5.1 6.5 4.8 5.5 5.4 6.0 5.6 4.5 3.8 4.9 4.2 3.5 4.8 6.0 4,6 5.4 6.2 6.7 6.4 6.2 6.8 7.3 6.4 6.2 6.7 GDP GDP 4.8 4.7 4.8 5.2 4.9 4.9 5.2 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0 Source: Central Bureau of Statistics of Indonesia (BPS) *Other services consist of 10 sectors (according to Standard National 2008)
GDP Growt
ed on Expen endit itures es (%, YoY)1
By expen enditure 2015 2015 2016 2016 2017 2017 2018 2018 2019 2019 Q1 Q1 Q2 Q2 Q3 Q3 Q4 Q4 Tot. Q1 Q1 Q2 Q2 Q3 Q3 Q4 Q4 Tot. Q1 Q1 Q2 Q2 Q3 Q3 Q4 Q4 Tot Q1 Q1 Q2 Q2 Q3 Q3 Q4 Q4 Tot Q1 Q1 Q2 Q2 Q3 Q3 Q4 Q4 Tot
5.0 5.0 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.9 5.0 4.9 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.2 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.2 5.0 5.0 5.0 Non profit HH. consumption (8.1) (8.0) 6.6 8.3 (0.6) 6.4 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.6 8.1 8.5 6.0 5.3 6.9 8.1 8.8 8.6 10.8 9.1 17.0 15.3 7.4 3.5 10.6 Government consumption 2.9 2.6 7.1 7.1 5.3 3.4 6.2 (3.0) (4.0) (0.1) 2.7 (1.9) 3.5 3.8 2.1 2.7 5.2 6.3 4.6 4.8 5.2 8.2 1.0 0.5 3.2 Gross Fixed Cap. Formation 4.6 4.0 4.9 6.4 5.0 4.7 4.2 4.2 4.8 4.5 4.8 5.3 7.1 7.3 6.2 7.9 5.8 6.9 6.0 6.6 5.0 4.6 4.2 4.1 4.4 Exports (0.6) (0.3) (1.0) (6.4) (2.1) (3.1) (1.5) (5.9) 3.9 (1.7) 8.4 2.7 16.5 8.4 8.9 5.8 7.5 8.3 4.6 6.5 (1.6) (1.7) 0.1 (0.4) (0.9) Imports (2.6) (7.1) (6.5) (8.6) (6.2) (5.0) (3.4) (4.1) 2.7 (2.4) 4.8 0.2 15.4 11.9 8.1 12.5 14.9 13.8 7.1 11.9 (7.5) (6.8) (8.3) (8.0) (7.7) GDP GDP 4.8 4.7 4.8 5.2 4.9 4.9 4.9 5.2 5.2 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0 1. Source: Central Bureau of Statistics of Indonesia (BPS), ** Including non-profit household consumption
36
Regional
nomic ic Growth th
Source: Central Bureau of Statistics of Indonesia (BPS)
Solid domestic demand is supported by increasing income from inter-regional trade, such as in Sumatra. Meanwhile, economic growth in Kalimantan and Bali-Nusa Tenggara has been maintained as exports of primary commodities improved.
Exter ernal al Factor
Impr mproved ed Exter ernal al Resi silienc lience
38
1.97 (8.35 35) (2.06) 06) 0.31
0.0
2 4 6 8 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1*Q2*Q3* Q4** 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019** Goods Services Primary Income Secondary Income Current Account (%GDP) (rhs) US$b $bn
Extern ernal al Balanc ance e under r Contr trol
rted ed by Adequ equat ate e Reserv rves es
Curren ent t Account Deficit with thin Safe e Thres eshold Balance e of Paymen ents ts Portr trait Substa tanti tial FX Reser erve ves to Miti tigate te Exte ternal Challen enges Trade e Balance Portr trait
Source: Bank Indonesia Source: Bank Indonesia Source: BPS * Preliminary Figure ** Very Preliminary Figure
2015: Surplus US$7.59bn 2013 2013: Deficit (US$4.10bn) n) 2014 2014: Deficit (US$2.37bn) n) 201 2016: : Surplus US$8.83b 3bn 2017: Surplus US$11.83bn bnSource: Bank Indonesia FX Reserve ves as of March 2020: US$121.0 bn n (Equiv. to 7.0 months of imports + servicing of government debt) US$b $bn
2015: CA Deficit (US$17.5bn) n) 2013: CA Deficit (US$29.1bn) n) 2014: CA Deficit (US$27.5bn) n) 201 2016: CA Deficit (US$17.0bn) n) 201 2017: CA Deficit (US$16.2bn) n)
2018: Deficit (US$8.7bn) n)2018: CA Deficit (US$30.6bn) n)
2019: Deficit (US$3.2bn) n)(8.12) 12) 12.38 8 4.28 129.18 18 40 80 120 160
5 10 15 20 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1*Q2*Q3* Q4** 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019**
Indone nesia ia's Balance of Payment nts
Current Account Capital and Financial Account Overall Balance Reserve Asset (rhs)US$b $bn US$b $bn 2019: CA Deficit (US$30.4bn) n)
0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 OG Non-OG Total
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 FX Reserves (LHS) Month of Import & Debt Service (RHS)
Month US$bn
39
Excha hang nge e Rate e In Line e with h Fundam damen entals tals
Movem emen ent of Rupia iah Rupia iah Exchange e Rate e Fared ed Relative ively ly Well ll Compared ed to Peer ers
IDR/US$
The rupiah regained some of
value in in the second week of
as global fi financial market ket panic began to to subside. On 13th April 2020, the rupiah appreciated 4.35% (ptp) on the level recorded at the end of March 2020. Notwithstanding, the rupiah has still depreciated by around 11.18% on the level recorded at the end of
flows to domestic financial markets after various policies were implemented around the world to mitigate the economic impact of COVID-19, including in Indonesia. The stronger rupiah was also supported by the maintained supply of foreign exchange from domestic players, which underpinned rupiah exchange rate stability. Bank Indonesia is confident that the current value of the rupiah is adequate to support economic rebalancing, as the currency is fundamentally undervalued. Furthermore, rupiah stability is expected as the currency strengthens towards Rp15,000 per US dollar at the end of 2020. Bank Indonesia will continue to bolster rupiah stabilization policy in line with the currency's fundamental value and market mechanisms. To that end, Bank Indonesia will increase the intensity of triple intervention policy through the spot and Domestic Non-Deliverable Forward (DNDF) markets, as well as purchasing SBN in the secondary market. To boost the effectiveness of exchange-rate policy, therefore, Bank Indonesia will continue to optimize monetary operations in order to ensure sound market mechanisms and adequate liquidity in the money and foreign exchange markets.
Source: Bank Indonesia
Rupia iah Exchange e Rate e Vola latil ilty
15630 14601 14798 14134 14254 14120 14064 14219 16195 14,141 14,381 14,220 14,031 14,232 14,113 14,006 13,714 15,179 16,195 13,000 13,500 14,000 14,500 15,000 15,500 16,000 16,500 17,000 12-May 12-Jun 12-Jul 12-Aug 12-Sep 12-Oct 12-Nov 12-Dec 12-Jan 12-Feb 12-Mar 12-Apr 12-May 12-Jun 12-Jul 12-Aug 12-Sep 12-Oct 12-Nov 12-Dec 12-Jan 12-Feb 12-Mar 12-Apr IDR/USD Quarterly Average Monthly Average data as of April 13th, 2020 0.25
0.16 0.07 0.50
0.42
0.17
4.35 1.91
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 PHP KRW CNY JPY SGD MYR EUR INR THB TRY IDR BRL ZAR point-to-point average *data as of April 13th, 2020
YTD 20 2020 20vs 201 019 %
18.1% 17.0% 16.0% 7.0% 5.4% 6.4% 6.2% 4.7% 28.7% 28.5% 18.0% 23.7% 3.7% 5.9% 14.4% 5.1% 15.99% ZAR BRL TRY IDR THB PHP INR MYR 2019 YTD 2020 Average YTD 2020 *data as of April 13th, 2020
40
Ample e Lines of Defens nse Agai ains nst t Externa ernal l Shoc
ks
Ample level of FX reserves to buffer against external shock
FX Reserves as of March 2020: US$121.0 billion
South Korea
Renewed a 3 year KRW / IDR swap arrangement with the size of up to KRW 10.7 trillion / IDR 115 trillion in March 2020
Australia
Renewed a 3 year A$/IDR swap arrangement of up to A$10 billion or IDR 100 trillion in August 2018
Chiang ng Mai Initiative e Multilater eralization
(CMIM) Agreem eement ent
Entitled to a maximum swap amount of US$ 22.76 bn under the ASEAN+3 (Japan, China, and Korea) FX reserves pool created under the agreement
Came into effect in 2010 with a pool of US$120 bn
Doubled to US$240 bn effective July 2014
Japan
Renewed a 3 year USD22.76 billion swap line with Japan on October 14th, 2018
The facility is available in USD and JPY
IMF Global Financ ncial Safe fety Net - GSFN
Indonesia is entitled to access IMF facilities for crisis prevention to address potential (actual) BOP problem
Such facilities include Flexible Credit Line (FCL) and Precautionary and Liquidity Line (PLL)
Bilater eral Regiona
Global al FX Reser erve
Ample le Reser erves es Swap Arrangement
Source: Bank Indonesia
ASEAN Swap Arrang ngem ement ent (ASA)
Entitled to a maximum swap amount of USD600 million under ASA
The first MoU on the ASA was signed in 1977 among 5 ASEAN Central Banks with total facility USD100 million
Doubled to USD2 billion in 2005
Singapor
Renewed a one year SGD/IDR swap arrangement with a size up to USD10 billion (equivalent) in November 2019
China
Renewed a 3 year swap arrangement and increased the size of swap line up to CNY 200 bn / USD 30 billion in November 2018
Malaysia
Established a 3 year RM/IDR swap arrangement with a size up to USD2 billion (equivalent) in September 2019
41
Solid id Po Polic licy Coordinat dination ion
In Managin ging g Financial cial Markets ets Volati tilit ity y
Source: Ministry of Finance First st Line of Defense State’s Budget Buyback fund at DG of Budget Financing and Risk Management Investment fund at Public Service Agency (BLU) (min. level Aware) State Owned d Enterprises (BUMN)’s Budget Related SOEs (min. level Aware) Social Security Organi nizing Agency (BPJS)’s Budget BPJS (min. level Aware) Second d Line of Defense State’s Budget
State General Treasury Account (Rekening KUN) (min. level Alert) Accumulated cash surplus (SAL) (min. Level Crisis)
Gov’t Securities Crisis Managem emen ent Protoc
P)
icato tors:
icies to address the crisis at every level :
Bond d Stabilization
The enact ctme ment of Law No. 9/2016 rega garding g Prevention and Mitiga gation of Financia cial l System m Crise ses s as a legal foundation for the government to serves at the time of financial crisis in the form of Financi cial l System m Stabil bility Commi mittee (KSSK) K) KSSK membe bers: the Ministry of Finance, Bank Indonesia, the Financial Services Authority, and the Deposit Insurance Corporation Swap facility arrangements based on international cooperation Enhancing coordination between government institutions and continuous dialogue with market participants Implementing Crisis Management Protocol (CMP)
CMP
Implementing Bond Stabilization Framework (BSF)
BSF
42
Stren rengt gthe hene ned d Privat ivate e Extern ernal al Debt t Risk Managem agemen ent
Regulat ation Key Points Phas ase 1 Jan 1,2015 – Dec 31,2015 2015 Phas ase 2 Jan 1,2016 – Dec 31,2016 2016 Phas ase 3 Jan 1, 2017 & & beyond
Object of Regulation Governs all Foreign Currency Debt Hedging Ratio < 3 months 20%* 25%** > 3 – 6 months 20%* 25%** Liquidity Ratio (< 3 months) 50% 70% Credit Rating Not applicable Minimum rating of BB- Hedging transaction to meet hedge ratio not necessarily be done with a bank in Indonesia Must be done with a bank in Indonesia Sanction As of Q IV-2015 Applied External Debt/G /GDP (%)
Debt t Burden en Indicato tor (Exte ternal Debt/G t/GDP) Remains Comparable e to Peers Rati ting Encou
ing Corporates Compli liance on Hedgin ing Ratio io & Liquid idit ity Ratio io
Source: Bank Indonesia
Liquidity ty Rati tio* Hedging Rati tio*
*Data as of Q3 2019, with total population 2.602 corporates
Regulati tion on Pruden enti tial Principle e in Managing Exte ternal Debt
Source: Bank Indonesia
Source: Moody’s Statistical Handbook, November 2019
23.9 36.2 20.0 39.9 57.3 23.0 36.7 20.9 42.9 56.5 21.9 37.0 21.4 42.3 54.3 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Philippines Indonesia India Colombia Bulgaria 2020F 2019F 2018
2,341 , 90% 261 , 10%
≤ 3 months
2,443 , 94% 159 , 6%
> 3 - 6 6 months
2,294 , 88% 308 , 12% Comply Not Comply
43
Health lthy Extern ernal al Debt t Compos
ition ion
Exter ernal l Debt Structure
Source: Bank Indonesia, External Debt Statistics of Indonesia, April 2020 *Provisional Figures
The Structure e of Exter ernal l Debt is Domina inated ed by Long-Ter erm Debt Exter ernal l Debt Remains ins Managea eable le Exter ernal l Debt to GDP Ratio io & Debt to Expor
io
% % % 121.8 114.9 101.0 113.8 123.1 139.5 168.4 176.1 168.0 160.8 168.7 172.4 177.4 183.7 31.8 26.5 25.0 27.4 29.1 32.9 36.1 34.3 34.7 36.0 36.8 36.6 36.2 36.1 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 External Debt / Export Ratio External Debt / GDP Ratio (rhs)
42.6 41.4 47.4 50.0 53.6 55.8 54.1 50.5 48.8 50.4 50.8 49.8 50.0 49.8 49.5 50.1 57.4 58.6 52.6 50.0 46.4 44.2 45.9 49.5 51.2 49.6 49.2 50.2 50.0 50.2 50.5 49.9 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Private External Debt Public External Debt 18.3 21.2 20.7 21.7 21.2 20.2 17.9 17.1 15.6 16.0 16.2 15.8 14.1 15.7 14.6 14.6 81.7 78.8 79.3 78.3 78.8 79.8 82.1 82.9 84.4 84.0 83.8 84.2 85.9 84.3 85.4 85.4 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Short Term External Debt Long Term External Debt
Million USD
11.5 17.1 11.3 12.0 5.4 10.2 5.9 3.0 10.1 6.5 8.3 10.1 10.5 7.7 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 20.0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 External Debt External Debt Growth (rhs)
44
Manage geab able le Extern ernal al Debt t Prof
ile
Short term non-bank nk corporate e debt bt (non n affiliation) n) represen esents only y 8.6% 6% of total private e ex exter erna nal debt
Private vate Short-Ter erm1 Priva vate te Non-Bank Exter ernal Debt Positi tion
Af Affiliat ation Non Af Affiliat ation
US$155.2bn
76%
Debt US$19.5bn
9.6%
US$11.8bn
5.8% 8%
ivate te Ext.
t US$17.7bn bn
8.7% 7%
ivate te Ext.
t
Public Long Term 1 Private vate Bank
US$29.5bn
14.4%
US$204 204.2b 2bn
50 50.1%
US$49bn
24% 24%
External Debt Position as of February 2020
1 Based on remaining maturity
Source: External Debt Statistics of Indonesia, April 2020
US$407.5bn bn
US$203.3bn
49.9%
Debt
Fiscal al Performan mance e and Flexib ibili ility ty: Prudent dent Fiscal al Polic icy to Comb mbat at the COVID VID-19 Pandem emic ic and Maintain taining ing Econ
stain ainab ability lity
46
Optim imizin izing the e Policy icy Mix x to Combat the e COVID ID-19 19 Pand ndem emic ic and nd Mainta intain ining ing Econo nomic ic Sustaina inabil ilit ity
Source: Ministry of Finance
2
Budget Refocusing & Reallocation
STIMULUS I
Rp8,5 T
STIMULUS II
Rp22,5 T
STIMULUS III
Rp405,1
Line ministries and regional govt: budget priorities to tackle COVID-19 Strengthening the domestic economy through:
encouraging labor- intensive policies
Maintaining people's purchasing power and ease of export and import:
Rescueing national health and economy, as well as maintaining the stability of the financial sector (through Perppu No.1 Tahun 2020)
net, business support & economic recovery financing support)
FISCAL POLICY
MONETARY*
(GWM) in Rupiah & foreign currency
BANKING
provision requirements for MSMEs
restructuring
MONETARY AND FINANCIAL POLICY
Rp190 T Spending cut/saving Rp55 T Spending Reallocation
*For more detail please see section 5
47
Extra traor
dinary Handling dling of The COVID ID-19 Pandem demic ic
Gov
lation
pu) ) No. 1/2020 stipula lates s that everything spent by by the gov
economic ic recovery programs s will be regarded as a measu sure to save the economy from crisis is and not a state loss
Source: Ministry of Finance
48
Extra traor
dinary Handling dling of The COVID ID-19 Pandem demic ic
Gov
lation
pu) ) No. 1/2020 stipula lates s that everything spent by by the gov
economic ic recovery programs s will be regarded as a measu sure to save the economy from crisis is and not a state loss
Source: Ministry of Finance
49
Source: Ministry of Finance
Background:
threshold
sources
shifting and refocusing central and regional budgets
finance the additional deficit
Economic Recovery Program for the sustainability of the real sector and financial sector.
MAIN PRINCIPLE/SETTINGS IN PERPPU
State Financial Policy Financial Sector Policy
the scope of the KKSK meeting
including in buying long-term SBN in the primary market to support the handling of Covid-19 pandemic
Service Authority (OJK) and Deposit Insurance Corporation (LPS) to prevent risks that endanger financial system stability and protect bank customers.
government in handling banking problems and financial system stability due to COVID-19 pandemic
Quick and Extraordinary Steps in Handling COVID-19 and the Impact
COVID-19 P 19 PAND NDEMIC:
latio ion of confir irmed case se and fatali alitie ies
at economic ic impact
ial l disr sruptio ion to the stab abilit lity of financial al sy syst stem
Need quick and
anticipatory step
Forceful
urgency
PERPPU No. 1 of 2020
as a legal al bas asis is for r tak akin ing g ra rapid id and extrao aordin inar ary and coord rdin inat ated steps to counter r the COV OVID-19 pan andemic ic.
Extra traor
dinary Handling dling of The COVID ID-19 Pandem demic ic
Gov
lation
pu) ) No. 1/2020 stipula lates s that everything spent by by the gov
economic ic recovery programs s will be regarded as a measu sure to save the economy from crisis is and not a state loss
50
COVID ID-19 9 Impac mpacts s and Count unter ermea measu sures es
Perpu No. 1/202 2020 0 provide des a legal basis to take e ex extraordi dina nary y steps in tackling ng COVI VID-19 huma mani nitarian n crisis s and saving ng the econom nomy
Source: Ministry of Finance
Health and Mental Threats Disruption of Social & Economic Activity Disruption in Real Sector and Increased Risk in the Financial Sector
Losing source of income Declining purchasing power and consumption ability Disruption in business activity (production, investment, and trade) Business is facing potential bankruptcy Increase in financing and banking nonperforming loan Liquidity and solvency issues in the financial sector (bank and nonbank)
Health Measures:
Appoint dedicated hospital, emergency hospital, equipment support, and medical personnel support Testing and tracing physical distancing, work and study from home, etc. Large-scale Social Restriction (PSBB)
Business Support:
Reducing of import restriction (lartas) including manufacturing support, food and health/medical goods, acceleration of the export-import process, and improvement of services through the National Logistics Ecosystem Incentives and tax facility The National Economic Recovery Program through PMN, placement of Government investment, and/or guarantee activities Various policies and relaxation in the financial sector: BI, OJK, LPS, and the Government
Social Safety Net:
PKH improvement and expansion Basic food cards improvement and expansion Pre-Work Card expansion and flexibility Exemption from electricity bills Additional interest rate subsidy assistance Infected Starving Death Triggering mental health issues (anxiety, fear, sadness)
51
The objec jecti tives es of Governm rnmen ent t Stim imulu ulus
Source: Ministry of Finance
survive the impact of COVID-19
terminations (PHK)
relaxation and liquidity Trade sector could be one of the hardest-hit business sector, particularly because most of them are classified as MSMEs (with big concerns whether they have sufficient financial capacity to survive until the
MSMEs absorp around 97% of total workforce and 99% of total job field, thus it is very crucial for the Government to maintain the sustainability of those MSMEs, minimize the number of layoffs, and maintain the level of unemployment in a tolerable level. In order to break the vicious cycle in conducting credit in this time of crisis, liquidity injection becomes
done to channel liquidity to the real sector that needs cashflow to undergo a crisis due to COVID-19. Global economy as well as Indonesia economy face extraordinary challenges because of the impact of COVID-19. To overcome these, liquidity channeling policies need to be prepared in order to achieve the following objectives:
52
Flexib ibilit ility In 2020 Budget get To Respond nd Emergen rgency Condit dition ion
Wideni ening ng the defi ficit above e 3 percent ent of GDP is to acceler erate e the mitiga gation n of COVI VID-19, 9, salvage ge the econo nomy y from threa eaten ening ng crisis, and maint ntain n the stabl ble e financ ncial system em
Source: Ministry of Finance
plummeting of oil and commodities price
support, including the small and medium one;
reallocating to bolster the management of COVID-19;
Widening (Rp545.8T)
surplus utilization (Rp45 trillion)
economy recovery (Rp150 trillion)
financing gap
Revenue Spending Deficit
Budget (Rp307.2T) = 1.76% GDP
Outlook (Rp853.0T) = 5.07% GDP
Budget Rp2,233.2T Budget Rp2,540.4T Outlook Rp1,760.9T Outlook Rp2,613.8T
53
Outlook look of 2020 Budget get Revenue ue in COVID ID-19 Emerge ergency ncy
Source: Ministry of Finance
TAX REVENUE FROM D.G.TAX
TAX REVENUE
CUSTOMS & EXCISES REVENUE
Growth: -5.4% | Tax Ratio 9.4%
Omnibus Law
Growth: -5.9%, by calculating the impact of:
Growth: -2.2%, considering the stimulus effect of import duty exemption for 19 industries
Growth: -26.5%
Reckoning the influence of:
prices due to the lower ICP’s assumption
commodities since the coal’s price has plunged
GROWTH
FROM 2019’s REALIZATION
OR
2020 BUDGET TARGET
54
State e Expen endit diture ure & & Trans nsfer er to Regions
look in The e APBN 2020
Amid d Emergenc ergency y Situation
OVID-19 19
Source: Ministry of Finance
//////////////////////// ////////////////////////
BUDGET REFOCUSING & REALLOCATION TO FIGHT COVID-19
Rp190 T
Expenditure Savings: (Line Ministries: Rp95,7 T and Transfer to Region Rp94,2 T)
Rp54,6 T
Expenditure Reallocation
Rp255,1 T
Additional spending to mitigate COVID-19 (PERPPU)
////////////////////////
sector/industry
DBH
(Revenue sharing) in line with state revenue change
DAU
(general allocation fund) Cut by 10%
DAK Fisik
(Physical Specific Allocation Fund) cut by 25% except for education and health programs
DAK Non Fisik
(Non Physical Specific Allocation Fund) has been taking into account additional incentive for healthcare workers of Rp3,7 T
DID & Dana Desa
(Incentive Fund & Village Fund) taking into account disbursement capacity.
Dana Desa
(Village fund) can be used for cash transfer social assistance in village level
55
State e Financ ancing ing Outlook look in The APBN 2020
Amid d Emergenc ergency y Situation
VID-19 19
Source: Ministry of Finance
INCREASE TO BE
OF GDP
FROM
OF GDP IN APBN 2020
FINANCING
Additional financing will use accumulated cash surplus (Saldo Anggaran Lebih /SAL), endowment fund, and fund from BLU.
NON DEBT FINANCING Rp10 108, 8,9 9 T
Debt financing will come from:
domestic market,
sources.
purchased by Bank Indonesia in the primary market.
Rp545,7 TRILLION
DEBT FINANCING Rp654, 4,5 T
Government will utilize debt financing sources with relatively low cost and manageable risk.
Adittional education financing Rp18,6 T to fulfill mandatory education spending of 20% of total budget
Non debt financing include:
Financing t support National Economic Recovery Program of Rp150 T
56
The Realiz lizati ation n of The Stat ate e Budget et up to March h 2020
Control
ed State e budget get Amid d the Pandem emic c Pressu ssure re
Source: Ministry of Finance
Budget (IDRtn) 2019 2020 Budget Realization as of 31 March % to Budget Growth (%) Budget Realization as of 31 March % to Budget Growth A Revenue and Grant 2,165.1 349.0 16.1 4.6 2,233.2 375.9 16.8 7.7
2,164.7 348.9 16.1 4.6 2,232.7 375.9 16.8 7.7
1,786.4 278.7 15.6 6.2 1,865.7 279.9 15.0 0.4
1,577.6 247.7 15.7 1.3 1,642.6 241.6 14.7 (2.5)
208.8 31.0 14.8 73.1 223.1 38.3 17.2 23.6
378.3 70.2 31.0 (1.2) 367.0 96.0 26.2 36.8
0.4 0.1 33.7 (43.7) 0.5 0.1 15.5 (47.4) B Expenditure 2,461.1 452.1 18.4 7.7 2,540.4 452.4 17.8 0.1
1,634.3 260.7 16.0 11.4 1,683.5 277.9 16.5 6.6
855.4 128.8 15.1 24.8 909.6 143.0 15.7 11.0
Expenditure 778.9 132.0 16.9 0.9 773.9 134.9 17.4 2.2
826.8 191,3 23.1 3.1 856.9 174.5 20.4 (8.8)
756.8 181.2 23.9 3.4 784.9 167.3 21.3 (7.7)
70.0 10.1 14.4 (1.9) 72.0 7.2 10.0 (28.6) C Primary Balance (20.1) (32.5) 161.5 87.1 (12) (2.6) 21.6 (92.0) D Surplus/(Deficit) (296.0) (103.1) 34.8 20.1 (307.2) (76.4) 24.9 (25.8) % of GDP (1.8) (0.65) (1.76) (0.45) E Financing 296.0 177.9 60.1 16.9 307.2 74.2 24.2 (58.3)
57
Governm rnmen ent t Securit urities ies
Indicative e Financing g Plan for 2020
Source: Ministry of Finance
Issuance
Composition
GS Rupiah Domestic [82% - 86%]
Auction [76% – 80%] Non-auction [6% - 8%]
Forei eign n Deno nomina nated ed GS GS International [14% - 18%]
Sovereign Sukuk (tradable/Sukri & non-tradable);
mentary Avoid
ing out
be adjus justed to the potential
*in IDR Trillion
58
Governmen nment t Securities urities Financin ncing g Realiz ization ation
(as of Marc rch h 31, 2020)
Source: Ministry of Finance
*Dual-currency bonds issuance using SEC format amounted USD2 bn and EUR1 bn, settlement on January 14, 2020 (BI mid day exchange rate; 1 USD = 13,654 IDR & 1 EUR = 15,207.83 IDR)
59
GS Primar ary Mark rket et Perform
ance e 2019-2020 2020
Through Auction
Source: Ministry of Finance
2.11 3.11 2.80 2.12 2.15 3.17 2.59 1.97 2.34 2.97 2.44 5.14 6.50 3.01
2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00
100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Incoming Bids Awarded Bids % Bid to Cover Ratio (RHS) Incoming bid 2020 = Rp65.49T , while awarded bid 2020 = Rp13.91T
60
Republic lic of Indone nesia ia – USD4.3 .3bn GLOBAL OBAL BONDS S ISSUANCE CE
Source: Ministry of Finance
On April 7, 2020, the Republic of Indonesia priced a transaction comprising USD4.3bn in senior unsecured notes
Issuer Republic of Indonesia Issuer Rating Baa2 Moody’s (Stable) BBB S&P (Stable) BBB Fitch (Stable)
Baa2 Moody’s / BBB S&P / BBB Fitch Format U.S. SEC registered Issue Senior unsecured fixed rate notes Pricing Date April 6, 2020 Settlement Date April 15, 2020 Aggregate Size USD4,300 mm Long 10.5-year ar Long 30.5-year ar Long 50-year ar Maturity Oct 15, 2030 Oct 15, 2050 Apr 15, 2070 Tranche Size USD1,650 mm USD1,650 mm USD1,000 mm Coupon (p.a.) 3.850% 4.200% 4.450% Reoffer Price 99.573 99.150 99.009 Reoffer Yield (p.a.) 3.900% 4.250% 4.500% Listing Singapore, Frankfurt Open Market Law New York Use of Proceeds For general purposes of the Republic of Indonesia, including financing COVID-19 relief and recovery Transaction Highlights
Net proceeds will be used for general purposes of the Republic, including financing COVID-19 relief and recovery efforts for the Republic to contain the virus and mitigate its impact on Indonesia. The Republic's fiscal policy amidst volatile market conditions includes support for healthcare, the social safety net, and small and medium enterprises. The debut 50-year offering on strong demand in the long end of the curve. The transaction is the largest global offering by the Republic and demonstrates the Republic’s ability to respond swiftly to markets and capture favorable issuance windows.
Investor Breakdown by Investor Type Investor Breakdown by Region
RI1030 030 RI0470 RI1050 050
45% 25% 21% 9% 52% 20% 26% 2% 44% 38% 18%
US Europe Asia ex-Indonesia Indonesia
RI1030 030 RI0470 RI1050
Asset Managers Insurance/Pension Fund Central Bank/Sovereign Wealth Fund Banks Private Banks Others
64% 20% 1% 4% 1% 10%
71% 22% 1% 1% 2% 3%
85% 11% 1% 1% 1% 1%61
Discip iplined lined and Sophistic isticated ed Debt t Po Portf tfolio
gemen ent
Weig ighted ed Aver erage e Debt Maturit ity of ~8. 8.5 Years Pruden ent Fiscal l Defic icit it
Source: Ministry of Finance
Well l Diver ersif ified ied Acros
eren ent Curren encies ies
% of Yearly Issuance Source: Ministry of Finance Source: Ministry of Finance Source: Ministry of Finance
Stable le Debt to GDP Ratio io Over er the e Years
IDR Tn Government Debt / GDP (%) Note: *as of endo of December by using GDP assumption (interpolation) 265 265 362 362 407 407 442 442 358 358 (9) 19 19 (4) (20) 14 14 (7) (58) (69) (56) (66) (227) (298) (308) (341) (269)
0.0% (400) (300) (200) (100)
200 300 400 500 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 SBN (neto) Pinjaman DN & LN (neto) Non Utang (neto) Surplus (Defisit) APBN Rasio Defisit APBN thd. PDB (RHS) Non Debt (Net) Bonds (Net) Loans (Net) Budget Surplus/Deficit Fiscal Deficit (%GDP, RHS) 1,931.2 2,410.0 2,780.6 3,248.6 3,612.7 4,014.8 4,292.73 714.4 677.6 755.1 734.8 746.2 810.7 764.5 24.7% 27.4% 28.3% 29.4% 29.8% 30.2% 32.1% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0%
2,000.0 3,000.0 4,000.0 5,000.0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019*) Mar-20 Bond Loan Debt/GDP Ratio [RHS] 9.8 9.4 9.1 8.7 8.4 8.5 8.6 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Mar-20 ATM (in years) 57% 59% 58% 62% 59% 31% 30% 30% 27% 29% 4% 4% 4% 4% 5% 7% 6% 6% 5% 6% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2016 2017 2018 2019 Mar-20 IDR USD EUR JPY OTHER
62
Well ll Balanced nced Maturity urity Prof
ile With h Strong
lience Agains inst t Extern ernal al Shocks ks
Decli lining ing Inter eres est Rate e Risks ks Debt Maturit ity Profi
le Decli lining ing Exchange e Rate e Risks ks Upcom
ing Maturit itie ies (Nex ext 5 Years)
IDR tn tn
Note: using GDP assumption
Source: Ministry of Finance
14.8 13.7 12.1 10.6 10.6 9.8 10.2 21.0 20.7 17.5 19.2 19.7 16.1 14.9 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Mar-20 Variable rate ratio [%] Refixing [%]
176 273 215 225 283 129 139 141 134 208 128 143 96 94 150 46 99 28 89 62 29 23 20 33 28100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049-2058 IDR Denominated (Triliun Rp) Other Currencies (Triliun Rp) 10.7 12.2 12.1 12.1 12.3 11.3 13.3 43.4 44.5 42.6 41.3 41.0 37.9 41.3 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Mar-20 FX Debt to GDP ratio (%) FX Debt to total debt ratio (%) 7.7 8.4 6.5 9.9 10.6 8.1 6.7 20.1 21.4 22.7 25.0 25.5 24.3 23.5 33.9 34.7 36.0 39.3 40.4 41.0 40.1 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Mar-20 in 1 year (%) in 3 year (%) in 5 year (%)
63
Holder ders of Tradab dable le Central tral Govern ernmen ent t Securities urities
More e Balance e Ownersh ership In Term erms s of Holders ders and Tenors
Foreig eign n Owner ership ip of Gov’t Domestic Debt Secur urit ities ies by Tenor
Holder ers of Tradable Gov’t Domestic Debt Securities
Source: Ministry of Finance
23.9% 22.5% 23.4% 20.3% 21.1% 26.9% 37.8% 39.9% 36.8% 42.0% 40.3% 40.3% 38.2% 37.5% 39.8% 37.7% 38.6% 32.7%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Mar-19
Foreign Holders Domestic Non -Banks Domestic Banks 3.2% 3.5% 5.0% 4.3% 2.4% 2.4% 1.3% 5.3% 5.1% 1.9% 6.7% 7.9% 11.8% 17.8% 17.3% 18.4% 22.0% 23.1% 39.0% 37.4% 35.6% 36.8% 34.1% 31.6% 44.7% 36.0% 37.0% 38.6% 34.8% 35.0% 38.2% 37.5% 39.8% 37.7% 38.6% 32.7%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Mar-20
0-1 >1-2 >2-5 >5-10 >10 % Foreign Ownership of Total
64
Owners rship hip of IDR Tradab dable le Central tral Govern ernment nt Securit urities ies
(as of Marc rch h 31, 2020)
1) Non Resident consists of Private Bank, Fund/Asset Manager, Securities Company, Insurance Company and Pension Fund. 2) Others such as Securities Company, Corporation, and Foundation. *) Including the Government Securities used in monetary operation with Bank Indonesia. **) net, excluding Government Securities used in monetary operation with Banks.
(IDR tn)
Source: Ministry of Finance
Descripti tion Dec-15 15 Dec-16 16 Dec-17 17 Dec-18 18 Dec-19 19 Mar -2020 2020 Banks ks* 350.07 23.95% 399.46 22.53% 491.61 23.41% 481.33 20.32% 581.37 21.12% 763.39 26.94% Govt Insti titu tuti tions (Bank k Indones esia**) 148.91 10.19% 134.25 7.57% 141.83 6.75% 253.47 10.70% 262.49 9.54% 255.10 9.00% Bank Indonesia (gross) 157.88 8.90% 179.84 8.56% 217.36 9.18% 273.21 9.93% 426.08 15.04% GS used for Monetary Operation 23.63 1.33% 38.01 1.81% (36.15) (1.52%) 10.72 0.39% 170.98 6.03% Non-Banks 962.86 65.87% 1,239.57 69.90% 1,466.33 69.83% 1,633.65 68.98% 1,908.88 69.34% 1,814.88 64.05% Mutual Funds 61.60 4.21% 85.66 4.83% 104.00 4.95% 118.63 5.01% 130.86 4.75% 129.44 4.57% Insurance Company and Pension Fund 221.45 15.15% 325.52 18.36% 348.86 16.61% 414.47 17.50% 471.67 17.13% 498.08 17.58% Forei eign Holder ers 558.52 38.21% 665.81 37.55% 836.15 39.82% 893.25 37.71% 1,061.86 38.57% 926.91 32.71% Foreign Govt's & Central Banks 110.32 7.55% 120.84 6.81% 146.88 6.99% 163.76 6.91% 194.45 7.06% 183.58 6.48% Individual 42.53 2.91% 57.75 3.26% 59.84 2.85% 73.07 3.09% 81.17 2.95% 86.97 3.07% Others 78.50 5.37% 104.84 5.91% 117.48 5.60% 134.22 5.67% 163.32 5.93% 173.48 6.12% Total 1,461.85 100% 1,773.28 100% 2,099.77 100.00% 2,368.45 100.00% 2,752.74 100.00% 2,833.36 100.00%
Monetar tary and Financial ial Factor: Credib edible le Monetar tary Policy icy Trac ack Rec ecord d and Favou
able le Financial ial Sec ector
66
Bank Indonesia’s Policy Mix
To Mainta tain in Macr croecon
c and Financial cial Syst stem em Stabil ilit ity
Source: Bank Indonesia
Implementing Macro prudential Intermediation Ratio (RIM) Implementing Macro prudential Liquidity Buffer (MLB) Electronification: Social program, e- payment for Government Financial technology National Payment Gateway (NPG) QRIS (QR Indonesia Standard) Expanding National Clearing System (SKNBI) services Developing market instruments for financing infrastructure Developing financial market infrastructures Rupiah Interest Rate Swaps (IRS) and Overnight Index Swap (OIS) Domestic non-Deliverable Forward (DNDF) Developing the Commercial Papers (Surat Berharga Komersial) Controlling inflation: TPIP, TPID Structural reforms: Government Financial deepening & stability: KSSK (Financial System Stability Committee), OJK (Financial Services Authority) Coordinating efforts in reducing Current Account Deficit Accommodative monetary policy consistent with controlled inflation in the target corridor, while serving as a pre-emptive measure to maintain domestic economic growth momentum Stabilize exchange rate consistent with fundamentals Optimize monetary operations in
mechanisms and adequate liquidity in the money and foreign exchange markets
Monet etary Po Policy Coordi dination
with other er Author horities es Financial Market et Deepen ening Macro- pruden dential Po Policy Paymen ent System em Po Policy
67
Bank Indone
ia Po Polic licy Mix: : April il 2020
The e BI Board rd of Gover ernors rs agree eed d on 13th h and 14th h Apri ril 2020 020 to hold d the BI 7-Da Day y Rever erse e Repo Rate e at 4.50 50%, while e also maintaini ning ng the Deposit Facility y (DF) and Lendi nding ng Facility y (LF) rates es at 3.75 75% and 5.25 25%. Rupiah h Reser erve e Requireme ement nt Lowe wered d by 200 0 bps
Continue to
to ensure market mechanisms and adequate liquidity in the money and foreign exchange markets Holds the BI 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate at 4.50% Continue to strengthen coordination with financial authorities and relevant government ministries/agencies will constantly be improved in terms of formulating an
mitigate escalating risk in the financial system.
Source: Bank Indonesia
Focus on macroprudential policy measures on efforts to maintain financial system stability and anticipate potentially higher risks in the financial sector due to COVID-19. Reinforced its policy mix towards mitigating the risk of COVID-19 transmission, perceives adequate space to lower the policy rate due to mild inflationary pressures and the urgent need to stimulate economic growth Monetary policy considers the need to maintain external stability amidst heightened global financial market uncertainty
68
Bank Indone
ia Po Polic licy Mix: : April il 2020
1) To stabilize and strengthen rupiah exchange rates, Bank Indonesia has strengthened the intensity of triple intervention policy through the spot and Domestic Non-Deliverable Forward (DNDF) markets, as well as purchasing SBN in the secondary market. 2) To support national economic recovery efforts from the deleterious COVID-19 impact, Bank Indonesia will increase monetary easing through quantitative easing as follows:
effective from 1st May 2020.
as Islamic banks/Islamic business units for a period of one year, effective from 1st May 2020. 3) To strengthen liquidity management in the banking industry and in relation to the lower rupiah requirements, Bank Indonesia has raised the Macroprudential Liquidity Buffer (MLB) by 200bps for conventional commercial banks and by 50bps for Islamic banks/Islamic business units, effective from 1st May 2020. The banking industry is required to meet the additional MLB through purchases of government issued SUN/SBSN in the primary market. 4) To increase the uptake of non-cash payment instruments in order to mitigate the COVID-19 impact, Bank Indonesia is increasing various payment system policy instruments as follows:
payment system service providers by expediting the electronification of relevant social programs, including the Family Hope Program (PKH), Noncash Food Assistance Program (BPNT), Pre-Employment Card and Smart Indonesian Card (KIP).
instruments through digital banking, electronic money and broader QRIS acceptance.
while supporting credit card issuer policy to extend the due date for customers.
The BI Board of Govern rnor
s agreed on 13th and 14th April 2020 to hold the BI 7-Day Reverse rse Repo Rate at 4.50%, while also maintaining the Deposi sit t Facility ty (DF) and Lending Facility y (LF) rates at 3.75% 5% and 5.25% 5%. Rupiah Reserv rve Require rement t Lowere red by 200 bps
69
Bank Indon
esia ia Po Polic licy Mix: : March 2020
Mitiga igati ting g the risk sk of COVID-19 19 transmiss smission
To
rdinati tion and the va various s policy y measu sure res s already y take ken, Bank Indonesia on Marc rch 2nd
nd 2020 intro
roduce ced a va variety ty of five ve follow
p policy cy measure res s to to mainta tain moneta tary and financial market t stabi bility ty as well as mitigate te the COVID-19 19 risks
1) Intensify triple intervention policy to ensure rupiah exchange rates move in line with the currency's fundamental value and market mechanisms. To that end, Bank Indonesia will optimize its intervention strategy in the DNDF market, spot market and SBN market in order to minimize the risk of increasing rupiah exchange rate volatility. 2) Lower the FX reserve requirements for commercial banks from 8% to 4%, effective 16th March 2020, which will increase FX liquidity in the banking industry by around USD3.2 billion and simultaneously alleviate foreign exchange market pressures. 3) Lower the rupiah reserve requirements by 50bps for banks financing export-import activity in coordination with the
expected to facilitate export-import activity through lower costs/fees. 4) Expand the range of underlying transactions available to foreign investors in order to provide alternative hedging instruments against rupiah holdings. 5) Reaffirm that global investors can utilize global and domestic custodian banks to conduct investment activity in Indonesia.
70
Bank Indon
esia ia Po Polic licy Mix: : March 2020
Mitiga igati ting g the risk sk of COVID-19 19 transmiss smission
Bank k Indon
sia on the Board of Gov
rnor
s Meeti ting 18th
th and 19
19th
th Marc
rch 2020 has reinfor
ed its policy mix towa
ds mitigating the risk k of COV OVID-19 transm smissi ssion
e maintaining money ey market et and financial system em stabi bility and catalyzi zing economi
h momentum m throu
h the followi
sures es:
1) Strengthening the intensity of triple intervention policy to maintain rupiah exchange rate stability in line with the currency's fundamental value and market mechanisms, including the spot and DNDF markets as well as purchasing SBN in the secondary market. 2) Extending the SBN repo tenor to 12 months and providing daily auctions to loosen rupiah liquidity in the banking industry, effective from 20th March 2020. 3) Increasing the frequency of FX swap auctions for 1, 3, 6 and 12-month tenors from three times per week to daily auctions in order to ensure adequate liquidity, effective from 19th March 2020. 4) Strengthening foreign currency term deposit instruments in order to enhance foreign currency liquidity management in the domestic market, while encouraging the banks to utilize the foreign currency reserve requirements lowered by Bank Indonesia for domestic purposes. 5) Expediting the enforcement of domestic vostro rupiah accounts for foreign investors as underlying transactions for Domestic Non-Deliverable Forwards (DNDF), thus increasing hedging alternatives against rupiah holdings in Indonesia, which has been brought forward from 1st April 2020 to no later than 23rd March 2020. 6) Expanding the incentive of a 50bps daily rupiah reserve requirement beyond banks that are engaged in export-import financing to include the financing
7) Strengthening payment system policy to support COVID-19 mitigation efforts by:
Indonesia from Rp600 to Rp1 and from customers to the banking industry from a maximum of Rp3,500 to Rp2,900, effective from 1st April 2020 until 31st December 2020; and
(BPNT), Pre-Employment Card and College Smart Indonesia Card.
71
Bank Indon
esia ia Po Polic licy Mix: : March 2020
Mitiga igati ting g the risk sk of COVID-19 19 transmiss smission
Bank k Indon
sia on the Board of Gov
rnor
s Meeti ting 18th
th and 19
19th
th Marc
rch 2020 has reinfor
ed its policy mix towa
ds mitigating the risk k of COV OVID-19 transm smissi ssion
e maintaining money ey market et and financial system em stabi bility and catalyzi zing economi
h momentum m throu
h the followi
sures es:
1) Strengthening the intensity of triple intervention policy to maintain rupiah exchange rate stability in line with the currency's fundamental value and market mechanisms, including the spot and DNDF markets as well as purchasing SBN in the secondary market. 2) Extending the SBN repo tenor to 12 months and providing daily auctions to loosen rupiah liquidity in the banking industry, effective from 20th March 2020. 3) Increasing the frequency of FX swap auctions for 1, 3, 6 and 12-month tenors from three times per week to daily auctions in order to ensure adequate liquidity, effective from 19th March 2020. 4) Strengthening foreign currency term deposit instruments in order to enhance foreign currency liquidity management in the domestic market, while encouraging the banks to utilize the foreign currency reserve requirements lowered by Bank Indonesia for domestic purposes. 5) Expediting the enforcement of domestic vostro rupiah accounts for foreign investors as underlying transactions for Domestic Non-Deliverable Forwards (DNDF), thus increasing hedging alternatives against rupiah holdings in Indonesia, which has been brought forward from 1st April 2020 to no later than 23rd March 2020. 6) Expanding the incentive of a 50bps daily rupiah reserve requirement beyond banks that are engaged in export-import financing to include the financing
7) Strengthening payment system policy to support COVID-19 mitigation efforts by:
Indonesia from Rp600 to Rp1 and from customers to the banking industry from a maximum of Rp3,500 to Rp2,900, effective from 1st April 2020 until 31st December 2020; and
(BPNT), Pre-Employment Card and College Smart Indonesia Card.
72
Bank Indon
esia ia Po Polic licy Mix: : April il 2020
Mitiga igati ting g the risk sk of COVID-19 19 transmiss smission
As a follow-up p measu sure to stren rengthen monetary and financial mark rket stabi bility in conjunction
dinating Minist stry of Economi
s, Minist stry of Finance, e, Indon
esian Financial Services es Au Autho hority (OJK) and Deposi
e Corpora
the e Gov
k Indon
sia, Perry Wa Warjiyo, on April 1st 2020 delivered ered The policy mix impleme emented ed by by Bank k Indo dones esia to mitigate e the COV OVID-19 impact is as follows ws:
1) Lower the BI 7-Day (Reverse) Repo Rate in February and March by 25bps respectively; 2) Intensify triple intervention policy in the spot and DNDF markets and purchasing SBN in the secondary market; 3) Reduce the foreign currency reserve requirements for conventional commercial banks from 8% to 4%; 4) Extend the SBN repo tenor and provide daily auctions to loosen rupiah liquidity as well as increase the frequency of FX Swap auctions to daily in order to ensure adequate liquidity; 5) Expand the types of underlying transactions for Domestic Non-Deliverable Forwards (DNDF), thus increasing hedging alternatives against rupiah holdings in Indonesia; 6) Lower the rupiah reserve requirements by 50bps for banks that are engaged in export-import financing, as well as the financing of MSMEs and other priority sectors; 7) Loosen the Macroprudential Intermediation Ratio (MIR); 8) Provide hygienic currency fit for circulation, reduce the costs of the National Clearing System (SKNBI), maintain a QRIS Merchant Deposit Rate (MDR) of 0% for micro-merchants, and support non-cash disbursements of various government programs, including the Family Hope Program (PKH) and Noncash Food Assistance Program (BPNT), as well as the Pre-Employment Card and College Smart Indonesia Card. Bank Indonesia reiterated that rupiah exchange rates are currently adequate and the outlook scenario formulated for the main macroeconomic indicators is a form of forward-looking anticipatory measure towards prevention through joint efforts, while Bank Indonesia continues to maintain rupiah stability.
73
Bank Indon
esia ia Po Polic licy Mix: : April il 2020
Mitiga igati ting g the risk sk of COVID-19 19 transmiss smission
As a follow-up p measu sure to stren rengthen monetary and financial mark rket stabi bility in conjunction
dinating Minist stry of Economi
s, Minist stry of Finance, e, Indon
esian Financial Services es Au Autho hority (OJK) and Deposi
e Corpora
the e Gov
k Indon
sia, Perry Wa Warjiyo, on April 1st 2020 delivered ered The policy mix impleme emented ed by by Bank k Indo dones esia to mitigate e the COV OVID-19 impact is as follows ws:
impact as an anticipatory measure in conjunction with the Government, OJK and LPS. COVID-19 handling requires extraordinary measures, unconventional policies and policies that exceed previous jurisdiction.
follows: 1) Expansion of BI authority to purchase long-term government securities (SBN) and government Islamic securities (SBSN) in the primary market in
2) SBN will be purchased in the primary market by Bank Indonesia as a last resort if the market is unable to fully absorb the SBN issued by the
following considerations: financial market conditions and the impact on inflation. 3) As an anticipatory measure, Bank Indonesia will purchase repo securities held by the Deposit Insurance Corporation (LPS) in order to finance the handling of solvency issues at systemic and non-systemic banks; 4) Provision of short-term liquidity loan or short-term liquidity financing facilities in compliance with sharia principles to systemic and non-systemic banks; 5) Foreign exchange flow management for residents. The use of foreign exchange by residents, including provisions for the surrender, repatriation and conversion of foreign exchange to maintain macroeconomic and financial system stability as follows: 6) Bank Indonesia would like to stress that this measure is not a form of foreign exchange control but policy to manage foreign exchange applicable
the Indonesian economy, thus existing policy permitting the free flow of foreign exchange by foreign investors remains effective. 7) Regulating foreign exchange amongst residents is consistent with international prudential principles for macroeconomic management, particularly under economic distress, such as the current COVID-19 pandemic.
74
Bank Indon
esia ia Po Polic licy Mix: : April il 2020
Mitiga igati ting g the risk sk of COVID-19 19 transmiss smission
Bank k Indon
sia has agree eed d a repurcha hase se agree eemen ent line (repo
h the US Federal reser erve e worth USD6 D60 billion
Monetary Authorities (FIMA) has only been extended to a few central banks, thus indicating confidence in Indonesia's economic outlook and the macroeconomic policies implemented. In addition, Bank Indonesia has also established repo line facilities with several other institutions, namely the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), worth USD2.5 billion, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), USD3 billion, as well as other central banks in the region valued at USD500 million-USD1 billion.
several other central banks, namely the People’s Bank of China (PBoC), worth CNY200 billion (equivalent to USD30 billion), the Bank of Japan (BOJ), USD22.76 billion, Bank of Korea, KRW10.7 trillion (equivalent to Rp115 trillion), and the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), USD10 billion.
75
Bank Indon
esia ia Po Polic licy Mix: : April il 2020
Mitiga igati ting g the risk sk of COVID-19 19 transmiss smission
Bank k Indon
sia Issued d Impl pleme menting Prov rovisi sion
s for Au Auction
rnme ment Debt Securi rities s (SUN) ) and/ d/or
Gov
ment Islamic Securities es (SBSN) in the Prima mary Market et
Government Islamic Securities in the Primary Market to Maintain State Financial Management Sustainability as Implementation of Government Regulation in Lieu of Law Number 1 of 2020 on State Financial Policy and Stability of Financial Systems for the Management
regulation starts to take effect on 20 April 2020.
among others to purchase Government Debt Securities (SUN) and/or Government Islamic Securities (SBSN) in the primary market . It is necessary as a funding source for the government to recover the national economy including maintaining state financial management sustainability including SUN and/or SBSN issued in response to COVID-19 pandemic. Purchase of SUN and/or SBSN in the primary market is based on principle that Bank Indonesia is a last resort if the market capacity is unable to purchase them and/or result in high yield
1) Bank Indonesia holds auction of SUN and/or SBSN and auction of additional SUN and/or SBSN for long-term SUN and/or SBSN in the primary market as a follow-up to the implementation of Government Regulation in Lieu of Law Number 1 of 2020. 2) Provisions for offer quote and participants of auction of SUN and/or SBSN and auction of additional SUN and/or SBSN refer to the applicable Finance Minister Regulation on auction of SUN and/or SBSN in the domestic primary market. 3) Bank Indonesia may quote an offer to purchase long-term SUN and/or SBSN in auction of SUN and/or SBSN and auction of additional SUN and/or SBSN in the following manners: a. directly without using the main dealer and/or SBSN main dealer; b. non-competitive bid. 4) Implementation of auction of SUN and/or SBSN and auction of additional SUN and/or SBSN refer to the applicable Bank Indonesia provisions for auction of Government securities in the primary market provided that they are not in contravention of this regulation.
76
Princ ncipl iples es of Average ge Reser erve e Requirem uiremen ent Ratios ios Impr provemen
Substanc nce Old New Effec ective e Date a. Additional rupiah average reserve requirement for conventional commercial banks Fixed RR: 5% Average RR: 1.5% RR: 6.5% Fixed RR: 4.5% Average RR: 2% RR: 6.5% 16th July 2018 b. Annulment of demand deposit renumeration 2.5% (from 1.5% RR) 0% 16th July 2018 c. Implementation of foreign exchange average reserve requirement for conventional commercial banks Fixed RR: 8% Average RR: 0% RR: 8% Fixed RR: 6% Average RR: 2% RR: 8%* 1st October 2018 d. Implementation of average reserve requirement for Islamic banks Fixed RR: 5% Average RR: 0% RR: 5% Fixed RR: 3% Average RR: 2% RR: 5%* 1st October 2018
* Complemented by harmonisation feature to align with the average reserve requirement in rupiah feature for conventional commercial banks (e.g. Calculation period, lag period, and Maintenance period of 2 weeks)
to the monetary policy
framework reform implemented by Bank Indonesia since 2016.
August 2016 as BI7DRR replaced BI Rate as policy rate. This was then strengthened in 1st July 2017, by the implementation of the average reserve requirement in rupiah for conventional commercial banks at 1.5% out of the total 6.5% of GDP reserve requirement in Rupiah. The reformulation is also backed by various efforts in financial market deepening.
banking liquidity management, enhance banking intermediation function, and support efforts in financial market deepening. This multiple targets will in turn improve the effectiveness
monetary policy transmission in maintaining economic stability.
Consider derations
erage e Reser erve e Requi uirem emen ent Ratios
Improv
ement nt
Source: Bank Indonesia
77
Relaxing ing Reserve rve Requir irem emen ent t Ratios ios
Regulati tion
1 200bps for conventional commercial banks INELIGIBLE for looser daily reserve requirements as per macroprudential policy to support export-import and MSME financing, effective from 1st April 2020, to 3.5%, with a daily ratio of 0.5% and average ratio of 3% 2 50bps for Islamic banks and Islamic business units INELIGIBLE for looser daily reserve requirements as per macroprudential policy to support export-import and MSME financing, effective from 1st April 2020, to 3.5%, with a daily ratio of 0.5% and average ratio of 3% 3 200bps for conventional commercial banks eligible for looser daily reserve requirements as per macroprudential policy to support export- import and MSME financing, effective from 1st April 2020, to 3.0%, with a daily ratio of 0% and average ratio of 3% 4 50bps for Islamic banks and Islamic business units eligible for looser daily reserve requirements as per macroprudential policy to support export-import and MSME financing, effective from 1st April 2020, to 3.0%, with a daily ratio of 0% and average ratio of 3%
Source: Bank Indonesia
Lower reserve requirements, effective 1st May 2020
78
Prin inciples les of Macrop
rudenti tial al Interm ermediat ediation ion Ratio
R) and Macrop
rudential ntial Liquidity uidity Buffer er (MLB)
Striving to stimulate the bank intermediation function and liquidity management, Bank Indonesia issued Bank Indonesia Regulation (PBI) No. 20/4/PBI/2018 and Board
20/11/PADG/2018 concerning the Macroprudential Intermediation Ratio (MIR) and Macroprudential Liquidity Buffer (MLB) for Conventional Commercial Banks, Sharia Banks and Sharia Business Units. The policy is expected to stimulate the bank intermediation function to the real sector congruent with sectoral capacity and the economic growth target in compliance with prudential principles, while also overcoming the issue of liquidity procyclicality. The regulation is effective for conventional commercial banks from 16th July 2018 and for sharia banks from 1st October 2018.
Consideration
s for Macropr prudential l Instruments s Macrop
Macroprudentia ial Liqu quidity Buffer (MLB)
1 2 3 4
This macroprudential policy instrument is countercyclical and can be adjusted in line with prevailing economic and financial dynamics.
Source: Bank Indonesia
79
Prin inciples les of Macrop
rudenti tial al Interm ermediat ediation ion Ratio
)*
Regulati tion MIR (Conventional Commercial Bank) MIR Sharia (Sharia Banks s and Sharia Business s Units)
1 MIR Accounting Formula Credit + Owned Bond Deposit + Issued Bond Financing + Owned Sharia Bond Deposit + Issued Sharia Bond 2 Rate and Parameters Ceiling 94% Floor 84% Minimum Capital Adequacy Requirement 14% Upper disincentive parameter 0.2 Lower disincentive parameter 0.1 Ceiling 94% Floor 84% Minimum Capital Adequacy Requirement 14% For Sharia business units, the Minimum Capital Adequacy Requirement is the same as that of the parent conventional commercial bank Upper disincentive parameter 0.2 Lower disincentive parameter 0.1 3 Scope of credit/financing and deposits to calculate MIR / MIR Sharia Credit: rupiah and foreign currency Deposits in rupiah and a foreign currency: (i) demand deposits, (ii) savings deposits; and (iii) term deposits, excluding interbank funds Financing: rupiah and foreign currency Deposits in rupiah and a foreign currency: (i) wadiah savings; and (ii) unrestricted investment funds, excluding interbank funds 4 Source of Data Monthly Commercial Bank Reports Monthly Sharia Bank Reports 5 Criteria for securities held Corporate bonds and/or corporate sukuk Corporate bonds and/or corporate sukuk Issued by a nonbank corporation and by a resident Offered to the public through a public offering Equivalent to investment grade rating affirmed by a rating agency Administrated by an authorised securities institution
*As part of further relaxation on macroprudential policy, an adjustment will be applied starting from December 2nd, 2019
80
Prin inciples les of Macrop
rudenti tial al Interm ermediat ediation ion Ratio
)*
Regulati tion
MIR (Convention
MIR Sharia (Sharia Banks and Sharia Busines ess Units)
6 Percentage of the securities held 100% 7 Criteria for securities issued medium-term notes (MTN), floating rate notes (FRN) and/or bonds other than subordinated bonds sharia-compliant medium-term notes (MTN) and/or sukuk other than subordinated sukuk Issued by a nonbank corporation and by a resident Offered to the public through a public offering Equivalent to investment grade rating affirmed by a rating agency Administrated by an authorised securities institution 8 Securities Reporting Offline delivery mechanism (email) 9 Scope of deposits to meet DD MIR /DD MIR Sharia Average daily total deposits in rupiah at all branch
Including rupiah liabilities to a resident and non- resident third-party nonbank, consisting
(i) demand deposits, (ii) savings deposits; (iii) term deposits, and (iv) other liabilities Average daily total deposits in rupiah at all branch
Including rupiah liabilities to a resident and non- resident third-party nonbank, consisting of: (i) wadiah savings; (ii) unrestricted investment funds, and (iii)
10 Relaxation of DD MIR/Sharia DD MIR Bank Indonesia may relax the provisions of the DD MIR/Sharia DD MIR based on credit/financing disbursement and fund accumulation The provisions may be relaxed based on a request from a conventional commercial bank, Sharia bank or Sharia business unit or a recommendation from the Financial Services Authority (OJK) Conventional commercial banks, Sharia banks or Sharia business units that receive the relaxed policy are exempt from sanctions
*As part of further relaxation on macroprudential policy, an adjustment will be applied starting from December 2nd, 2019
81
Adjus justment ent of Macr cropr
udentia ential Inter ermed mediatio iation n Ratio io (MIR)/ )/Sharia ia Macr cropr
udentia ential Inter ermed mediati iation
io (Sharia ia MIR)* )*
developments, BI is maintaining an accommodative policy mix to maintain the economic growth while also maintaining macroeconomic and financial system stability.
2019, which stimulated bank lending. Nevertheless, the macroprudential intermediation ratio (MIR) is again approaching the upper bound, thus necessitating efforts to increase bank lending capacity.
sources that are not included in the MIR ratio, for example the expanding share of loans/financing received by banks, BI decides to adjust MIR/sharia MIR policy in order to
lending.
comply with prudential principles. Therefore, BI is only encouraging banks with low non- performing loans and adequate capital resilience to expand credit/financing.
Policy Backgroun
Source: Bank Indonesia
Bank Indonesia strengthens accommodative macroprudential policy through an adjustment to the Macroprudential Intermediation Ratio by including the loan/financing received by banks as a component of funding in MIR/sharia MIR.
business units as a source of bank funding in the calculation of MIR/sharia MIR.
are as follows: a. Loans/financing received in Rupiah and foreign currency; b. Loans/financing received in the form of bilateral loans and/or syndicated loans for conventional commercial banks, Islamic banks and Islamic business units; c. Loans/financing excludesinterbank loans/financing. d. Loans/financing received with a maturity of no less than 1 year; and e. Loans/financing received based on a loan agreement.
from the Jakarta Interbank Offered Rate (JIBOR) to the Indonesia Overnight Index Average (IndONIA).
Main Regul ulator
Cred edit t + Owned ed Bond Deposit t + Issued Bond + Loan/Financing Rec ecei eived ed Lowe wer disincen enti tive ve paramet eter er
MIR/shar aria MIR RR RR= Lower Disincentives Parameter x (Lower Bound of MIR/Sharia MIR Target – Bank’s MIR/Sharia MIR) x Deposit
Upper disincen enti tive ve paramet eter er
MIR/shar aria MIR RR RR= 0.2 x (Bank’s MIR/sharia MIR - Upper Bound of MIR/Sharia MIR Target – ) x Deposit
*This disincentive applies for banks with CAR below 14%. *This adjustment will be effective from December 2nd, 2019
82
Prin inciples les of Macrop
rudenti tial al Liquidit uidity Buffer er (MLB)
Regulati tion MLB (Conventi tional Commerci cial Bank) MLB Sharia (Shari ria Banks) s)
1 Rate 4% of rupiah deposits (including Sharia Business Units deposits) 4% of rupiah deposits 2 Components Securities denominated in rupiah held by a conventional commercial bank that may be used for monetary
Sharia-complaint securities denominated in rupiah held by an Sharia business unit that may be used for sharia- compliant monetary operations (including SBIS/SBSN) Sharia-complaint securities denominated in rupiah held by an Sharia bank that may be used for sharia- compliant monetary operations (including SBIS/SBSN) 3 Calculation Formula Percentage of rupiah securities held by a conventional commercial bank to rupiah deposits Percentage of sharia-compliant rupiah securities held by an Sharia bank to rupiah deposits 4 Flexibility Under certain conditions, the securities used to meet the MLB may be used for repo transactions to Bank Indonesia for open market operations, totalling no more than 2% of rupiah deposits Under certain conditions, the securities used to meet the sharia MLB may be used for repo transactions to Bank Indonesia for open market operations, totalling no more than 2% of rupiah deposits 5 Sources
Data
Deposits Monthly Commercial Bank Reports Rupiah deposits to calculate MLB are the average daily total deposits at all branches in Indonesia Rupiah deposits include: (i) demand deposits, (ii) savings deposits; (iii) term deposits, and (iv) other liabilities Monthly Sharia Bank Reports Rupiah deposits to calculate sharia MLB are the average daily total deposits at all branches in Indonesia Rupiah deposits include: (i) wadiah savings; (ii) unrestricted investment funds, and (iii) other liabilities
83
Macr cropr
udentia ential Liquid uidit ity y Buf uffer er (MLB LB) ) Policy icy and nd Credit it card policy icy
Regulati tion Before re Afte ter
1 Increase in the Macroprudential Liquidity Buffer (MLB) for conventional commercial banks 4% of rupiah deposits 6% of rupiah deposits 2 Increase in the Macroprudential Liquidity Buffer (MLB) for Islamic banks and Islamic business units 4% of rupiah deposits 4.5% of rupiah deposits
Policy to increase the Macroprudential Liquidity Buffer (MPLB), effective 1st May 2020.
Regulation
Before re Afte ter Effectiv tive Period
1 Lower upper limit on credit card interest 2.25% per month 2% per month 1st May 2020 2 Temporary reduction of minimum payment requirements 10% 5% 1st May 2020 – 31st December 2020 3 Temporary reduction
late payment penalties 3% or maximum of Rp150,000 1% or maximum of Rp100,000 1st May 2020 – 31st December 2020 4 Supporting credit card issuer policy to extend the due date for customers Issuer discretion 1st May 2020 – 31st December 2020
Credit card policy, effective 1st May 2020.
84
Relaxing xing the Loan-to to-Value lue (LTV) ) and Fina inancin cing-to to-Value lue (FTV) ) Ratios ios*
The LTV/ V/FT FTV V relaxation is conduc ucted ed while taking g into account nt aspects of prude dential and consum umer er protect ection*
through housing loan, specifically by adjusting the LTV ratio for property loan and the FTV ratio for property financing for the 1st facility, 2nd facility, etc., making the largest LTV ratio for property credit and FTV ratio for property financing as shown in the table below.
“-“= The LTV rate depends on each bank’s risk management
mechanism to a maximum of 5 facilities without taking account of the orders
loan/financing disbursement of indent property:
Source: Bank Indonesia
*As part of further relaxation on macroprudential policy, an adjustment will be applied starting from December 2nd, 2019
85
Pruden dential aspec ects s of Re Relaxing g the e Loan-to to-Value e (LTV) V) and Financing-to to-Value e (FTV) V) Ratios
1. The requirements of the LTV ratio for property credit and FTV ratio for property financing are as follows: i. The net ratio of NPL to total credit or NPF to total financing must not exceed 5%; and ii. The gross ratio of property NPL to total property credit or property NPF to total financing must not exceed 5%. 2. Banks must make sure that there is no loan transfer to another borrower at the same bank or different bank for tenors of less than 1 year. The requirements are valid for banks that will disburse pre-order property loan/financing. 3. Banks are required to comply with prudential principles when disbursing loans. 4. Gradual loan liquidation is only allowed for developers that comply with bank’s risk management policy (e.g.the business feasibility of the developer). 5. Banks are required to ensure that transactions to disburse loans (including down payment) and gradual liquidation must be processed through the debitor and developer/seller’s bank account.
LTV V / FTV V Exem emptions
Central government or local government loan / financing programs are exempt from this regulation.
Relaxing xing the Loan-to to-Value lue (LTV) ) and Fina inancin cing-to to-Value lue (FTV) ) Ratios ios*
Source: Bank Indonesia
86
Adjustm justment ent of LTV Ratio io for Proper erty y Loans ns, , FTV Ratio io for Proper perty y Fina nanc ncing, ing, and nd Down
yments on Automo
ive e Loans ns/Fi Fina nanci ncing* ng*
financing by 5% from current ratio as follows:
Source: Bank Indonesia
Bank Indonesia adjusts macroprudential policy in the property and automotive sectors by: (i) relaxing the LTV ratio for property loans and the FTV ratio for property financing; (ii) providing additional incentive on LTV ratio for green property loans and FTV ratio for green property financing; (iii) relaxing down payments on automotive loans/financing; (iv) providing additional incentive on down payments on green automotive loans. Policy Backgroun
Main Regul ulator
*This adjustment will be effective from December 2nd, 2019
response to global and domestic economic developments, BI is maintaining an accommodative policy mix to maintain the economic growth while also maintaining macroeconomic and financial system stability. This effort will be targeted to several potential sectors.
and automotive sectors which have a huge backward and forward linkages to other sectors in the economy, BI decides to relax LTV/FTV policy for property loans/financing and down payments on automotive loans in compliance with prudential principles.
development through green financing in order to reduce potential disruptions to financial system stability stemming from environmental degradation.
borrower with strong repayment capacity and low credit/financing risk.
87
FTV ratio for green property financing.
issued by a nationally
internationally recognized environmental institution.
following standards: i. For residential areas/buildings in certified green belt areas, each unit in the residential area/building is considered to meet the criteria. ii. In case that the residential area/building is not a certified green belt area, an evaluation will be conducted on each unit as follows:
assessment using the tools/applications provided by a recognized institution.
the assessment must be conducted by a recognized institution;
developer or group of developers, the assessment must be conducted by a recognized institution and the certificate must be submitted by the developer i. Additional incentive for green property on LTV ratio for property loans and FTV ratio for property financing is 5% from the LTV/FTV ratio presented in Table 2 as follows:
Adjustm justment ent of LTV Ratio io for Proper erty y Loans ns, , FTV Ratio io for Proper perty y Fina nanc ncing, ing, and nd Down
yments on Automo
ive e Loans ns/Fi Fina nanci ncing* ng*
Source: Bank Indonesia
Main Regul ulator
follows: i. Relaxation on the down payments of automotive loans or automotive financing 5%-10% from current regulations; ii. The relaxation should consider the gross NPL/NPF ratios and gross NPL/NPF ratios on automotive loans/financing; iii. The adjustment
down payments
automotive loans/financing in points a and b is as follows:
*This adjustment will be effective from December 2nd, 2019
88
i. Additional incentive of 5% on green vehicles from the down payment presented in Table 5; ii. The down payment incentives considers the gross NPL/NPF ratios and gross NPL/NPF ratios on automotive loans/financing; iii. The down payment regulation for green automotive loans or green automotive financing in points a and b is as follows:
Adjustm justment ent of LTV Ratio io for Proper erty y Loans ns, , FTV Ratio io for Proper perty y Fina nanc ncing, ing, and nd Down
yments on Automo
ive e Loans ns/Fi Fina nanci ncing* ng*
Source: Bank Indonesia
Main Regul ulator
Note: Adjustments of the LTV ratio for property loans, FTV ratio for property financing and down payments on automotive loans or financing will be effective from December 2nd, 2019
*This adjustment will be effective from December 2nd, 2019
89
Prin inciples les of Domes estic tic Non n Deliv iverab erable le Forwar ard d (DND NDF) F) Trans nsac acti tion
Purposes
1. To support the effort of stabilizing the Rupiah exchange rate through the additional of alternative hedging instruments 2. To support the development and deepening of the domestic financial market 3. To increase the confidence of exporters, importers, and investors in conducting economic and investment activities through the flexibility of hedging transactions against Rupiah currency risk
Genera eral Pro rovision isions
Domest stic c Non-Delivera rabl ble Forward Transa sacti ction
sacti ction
Plain vanilla derivatif transaction of foreign exchange against rupiah in the form of forward transaction with fixing mechanism in the domestic market
Forward Transa sacti ction
Forward Transactions are sell/purchase foreign currencies againts rupiah whereas the delivery of funds shall be performed in more than 2 days after the transaction date
Fixing Mechanism sm
Transaction settlement mechanism without full movement of funds by calculating the difference between rate on the transaction date and reference rate in JISDOR on a specified future time agreed in the contract (fixing date)
Other r Definiti tion
The definition of derivative transaction of foreign exchange againts rupiah, Forward Transaction, Spot Transaction, Customers, Foreign Party is referring to Bank Indonesia regulations regarding foreign exchange transaction againts rupiah
Source: Bank Indonesia
90
Prin inciples les of Domes estic tic Non n Deliv iverab erable le Forwar ard d (DND NDF) F) Trans nsac acti tion
Bank can perform
F Tra ransactions
s:
Bank – Customer Bank – Foreign Party
Bank – Bank
Transa sacti ction
Can only be performed to hedge rupiah exchange rate risk.
derlyi ying Transa sact ction
Includ uding ng all follow
ng activities es : a. Trade of goods and services b. Investments, loans, capital, and other investements. c. Banks credit or financing in foreign currencies (specifically for transactions between bank and customers) Exclud uding ng follow
ng activities es: a. Bank Indonesia certificates; b. Placement of funds with bank; c. Unwithdrawn credit facilities; d. Documents of foreign currencies sales againts rupiah; e. Money transfer by fund transfer companies f. Intercompany loan g. Money changer activities.
2. Nominal of DNDF Transactions ≤ Nominal of Underlying Transactions 3. Tenor of DNDF Transactions ≤ Tenor of Underlying Transactions
Source: Bank Indonesia
91
Prin inciples les of Domes estic tic Non n Deliv iverab erable le Forwar ard d (DND NDF) F) Trans nsac acti tion
Transa saction
emen ent
Roll ov
rmination
rohibited However, unwind can be done by opening the reverse DNDF transactions
Cov
er Hedgi dging
Bank may conduct DNDF Transactions with Bank Overseas for cover hedging purpose.
Custom tomer / / Foreign Party
Bank Ove vers rsea eas Bank
Hedging
Notes: Customer A conduct DNDF transactions with Bank B, and so Bank B can conduct DNDF transactions with overseas Bank for the purpose of cover hedge.
Cover Hedging
Source: Bank Indonesia
92
Amendm ndmen ent t on DNDF DF Regulat lation ion
*to to provid ide e more e flexib exibil ility ty in DNDF F transa sacti ction
*to to increa ease se liqui quidit ity y and efficiency ciency in domestic stic foreign ign exch exchange ge market et
BI Re Regulation
Source: Bank Indonesia
BI Re Regulation No. 21/7/PBI/2019
AMENDMENT
Article e 3
Article e 3
underlying documents Article e 6
Article e 6
Article e 11
supporting documents Article e 11
threshold $ 5 mio can be:
Article e 11
Article e 11
form of cash flow projection, Bank must evaluate the appropriateness through:
*Effective on May 17th, 2019; English version of the regulation is available in BI website.
93
Overnight night Index Swaps (OIS) S) & Interes erest t Rate Swaps (IRS)
Source: Bank Indonesia
As hedging instruments s against st Rupiah interest st rate changes
IRS is a contract between two parties to periodically exchange rupiah interest rate flows during the contract period or at the completion
the contract based on certain notional
OIS is an interest rate swap agreement based on a daily overnight reference rate (IndoNIA) Encourage price transparency in the rupiah money market Strengthen monetary policy transmission Provide alternative hedging instruments against rupiah interest rate changes Support securities market deepening in Indonesia
1 2 3 4
IndoNIA & JIBOR OIS transaction with IndoNIA as benchmark rate Alignment between JIBOR and OIS interest rate Improvement of IRS transaction liquidity
Strengthening reference rate based on real transactions
94
OIS and IRS Trans nsac action ions: : General eral Provis vision ions
Source: Bank Indonesia
Market Pla
and non-bank institutions, and also foreign parties. Transa sact ction ion Nee Needs An Analysis
required to have an analysis on the need of rupiah interest rate derivative transactions. Market Con
transactions, the respective bank is bound by market conventions agreed upon by market players through industry association including the Indonesian Foreign Exchange Market Committee. Set Settlem
payment and every transaction has to be settled in Rupiah. Clos lose-out nettin ing can be applied under predetermined conditions.
Market Conventions
Calculation
Base se AC ACT/360 IndON ONIA Index x with h 5 5 decima mals Compou
d Floating Rates es (CFR) based ed
mals Interest erest Paymen ent based ed on Netting Notion
interest rest payme ment in IDR with 0 decima mals Settlemen ment Date e = 1 busines ess s days s after er Maturi rity Date (MD) OIS Quotation
es based ed on 2 decima mals Quotation
1M, 2M, 3M, 4M, 5M, 6M At At the 1st phase se, OIS settleme ement will only be done at the end
(MD+1bd). d).
95
3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 LF Rate BI Rate BI-7Day RR Rate DF Rate LF Rate (Dummy)
Rupia iah Exchange Rate Remains ins Comparable le to Peer ers Well l Maint intaine ined Infla latio ion Ensured ed Pric ice e Stabil ilit ity Stren engthen ened ed Monet etary Poli licy Framew ewor
Cred edit it Growt
le
BI 7Day RR Rate: e: 4.50
(%)
LF Rate: 7.00 LF Rate: e: 5.25 25 BI Rate: e: 6.50 DF Rate: e: 3.75
19 August 2016
The New Moneta tary Operati tion
Framewor
8.38 8.36 3.35 3.02 3.61 3.13 2.72 2.96
0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Mar-2020 (%) CPI (%, yoy) rhs Core (%, yoy) - lhs Volatile Food (%, yoy) - lhs2 Administered (%, yoy) - lhs
Source: Bank Indonesia 0.25
0.16 0.07 0.50
0.42
0.17
4.35 1.91
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 PHP KRW CNY JPY SGD MYR EUR INR THB TRY IDR BRL ZAR point-to-point average *data as of April 13th, 2020
YTD 20 2020 20 vs 201 019 %
5.9 3.4 10.3 6.1 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 %,yoy Total Growth Working Capital Loans Investment Loans Consumption Loans
Stab able le Monetar etary Envir ironm
ent t Despit ite e Challen llenges ges
96
Regional
lation
ins under er Contr trol
Source: Central Bureau of Statistics of Indonesia (BPS), calculated
Inflation in most regions remained within the 2020 national inflation target range of 3.0% ± 1%. Inflation in West Java (3,9%) and Aceh (3.9%) remained high, driven by rising commodity prices of various fish and gold jewelery
REGIONAL INFLATION, MARCH 2020 20 (% (%, YOY)
97
4 Strat ateg egies ies to Achie ieve e the Inflation ation Target et
Achieving inflation at 3,5%±1%
2018-2019 19 Target
Stabilizing the price
e Affor
dabi bility lity Achieving inflation at 3,0%±1%
20 2020 20-20 2021 Target
Managing demand side Strengthening production, Government food reserves and food export- import management
ly Availa labil ility ity
Strengthening institution Encouraging trade cooperation between regions
l Managed ed Distr trib ibution tion
Improving trade infrastructure Improving data quality
ectiv tive e Communica ication tion
Strengthening central-regional coordination
Source: Bank Indonesia
4 Strategies
98
Improving ing the Effec ecti tiven enes ess of Monet etar ary Po Polic licy Trans nsmis ission ion
Bank k Indon
esia has instituted uted a Reform
ulation
etary y Policy Operation
ework
(1) 1) implem emen enta tati tion of BI 7day y Rever erse e Repo
e; (2) 2) implem ementa entation
erve e requi uirem ement ent averaging ng; and (3) continue nue to implem ement ent money ey market et deep epeni ening ng prog
Enhancement of monetary policy signal Enhancement of banking liquidity management Implem emen entation
Rev ever erse e Repo
Implem emen entation
erve e Requi uirem emen ent (RR) Aver eraging ng Refor formul ulation
Monet etary Po Policy Operationa
ewor
Enhancement of instruments and transactions Implem emen entation
Market et Deepen ening ng Program
Source: Bank Indonesia
99
Enhanc ancem emen ent t of Monetar etary Operati ations
minutes.
minutes.
CURRENT NT JIBOR (as per June 1st, 2016) PREVI VIOUS S JIBOR
Source: Bank Indonesia
100
Financ ancial ial Interm ermediat ediation ion Managed aged to Maintain ntain Its Stable le Growth th
Financial industry's intermediation still experiences positive and moderate growth in Feb-20 despite external pressure.
Source: Financial Service Authority (OJK)
As of Mar-20 20, the total of capita tal raising on 2020 reaches IDR 23.43 Tn. Banki king interme mediati ation can still maintain its moderate ate growth at 5.93% in Feb-20 20
5,538 5.93% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 IDR Tn yoy Bank Loans Growth (rhs) 12.07 9.6 16.43 14.7 0.09 67.12 88.19 35.45 29.17 116.18 156.71 114.18 122.98 5.46 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 2016 2017 2018 2019 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 IDR Tn IPO Rights Issue Corporate Bond & Sukuk
Growt wth of financing distr tribute ted by multi ti-finance e also grows moder erate tely at 2.82% yoy in Feb-20 20 Growt wth of insurance e gross premium of insurances es remains stable e as of Feb-20 20
20.94
10 20 30 40 50 60 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Life Insurance Premium Growth General & Reinsurance Premium Growth 452 2.82% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 100 200 300 400 500 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 yoy IDR tn Financing Growth (rhs)
101
Stab able le Financi ncial l Insti titutions utions
Domestic financial institutions exhibit a relatively stable condition. The capital is consistently well above the minimum requirements, while profitability and leverage remain to be at a sufficient level.
Source: Financial Service Authority (OJK)
CAR of the e banki king secto tor remains high and stable e at 22.42% with th Tier er-1 capita tal at 20.68% as of Feb-20 20 Prof
tability ty of the e banki king secto tor has mainta tained ed relati tivel vely stable RBC of the e insurance e industr try remains high and well above ve the e minimum thres eshold (120%) %) Geari ring rati tio
ti-finance e companies es is steadily mainta tained ed at a level vel of bel elow
three ee times es in Feb-20 20
22,42 20,68 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 CAR Tier 1
670 312 312
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Life Insurance (Lhs) General Insurance (rhs) 4,81 2,49 1 2 3 4 5 6 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Net Interest Margin Return on Assets 2,52 1 2 3 4 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20
102
Manageab geable le Credit dit Risks with Adeq equat uate Liquidit uidity
Financial Institutions are equipped with sufficient liquid assets. Credit risks are also managed at a low level and remains below the threshold.
The rati tio of liquid asset ets to deposit t and non-core e deposits ts in the e banki king secto tor is mainta tained ed wel ell above ve the e thres eshold. As of Feb 20, the e gross & net t NPL rati tios of the e banki king secto tor are e 2.79% and 1% accordingly, well mainta tained below the e thres eshold. NPF rati tio
e multi ti-finance e industr try consta tantl tly mainta tained ed low w at 2.7% as of Feb-20 20 Inve vestme tment t adeq equacy rati tio in the insurance industr try is mainta tained ed above ve 100%
Source: Financial Service Authority (OJK) 108,12 22.81 5 10 15 20 25 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 % % Liquid Assets to Non-Core Deposits Liquid Assets to Deposits
threshold LA to Deposit (rhs) = 10% threshold LA/ NCD= 50%
114,83 183,49 50 100 150 200 250 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Life Insurance General Insurance 1,00 2,79 1 2 3 4 5 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 % NPL Net NPL Gross % % 2,7 1 2 3 4 5 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20
103
Manageab geable le Market et Risks
Amidst the increasing market volatility, the risk profile of financial institutions remains manageable
Net et open en position in in the banking secto tor is is maintained significantly below the maximum limit (20 20%) Insurance & pension fund inve vestme tment value is is growing steadily. The exposures es of multi ti-finance e comp mpanies es to forei eign debt t have ve largel ely been en miti tigate ted by company hed edging measures es Mu Mutu tual funds’ net et asset et va value (NAV) is is res estr trained afte ter following a consider erable decline in in JCI during March’20 20
Source: Financial Service Authority (OJK)
2,35 1 2 3 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 %
1.000 2.000 3.000 4.000 5.000 6.000 7.000 260 310 360 410 460 510 560 610 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 IDR Tn NAV Mutual Funds JCI (rhs) As of 1 April, 2020 1146.8 280 200 250 300 350 400 300 600 900 1.200 1.500 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 IDR Tn IDR Tn Insurance Pension Funds (rhs) 174,05 102,17 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Domestic Debt Foreign Debt IDR Tn
104
Domes esti tic Capit ital al Market t Perform
nce Amid id Glob
al Challen llenges ges
Source: Bloomberg and Ministry of Finance
Domes estic ic bond and stoc
k index ex begin in to recov
er a sharp fell l at the e end of March Gover ernmen ent t bonds record capita tal inflow in Apr-20 afte ter previ viously exper erien encing significant t net t sell due e to global pres essure The COVID-19 pandemi mic continues to weigh on JCI's performan ance alongside with the plunging global stock k market ket The gover ernm nmen ent bond nd yields on the e benc nchmark k of 10-yr and 20-yr rise e to abov
e 8 percent followin lowing rupia iah deprecia iatio ion.
TURK BRAZ US EU JPN MAL CHIN PHIL SIN HKN INDO S KOREA THAI WORLD Stock Index x Performance as of 7 Apr ’20 (compared to 31 Dec’19) 0.9
20 40 60 80 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 7 Apr-20 Gov't Debt Securities Equity
266 266
4,779 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 5500 6000 6500 7000 200 210 220 230 240 250 260 270 280 290 300 Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19 Dec-19 Feb-20 Apr-20 Comp Bond Index Comp Stock Index (rhs) As of 7 April, 2020 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 5 6 7 8 9 10 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Yield (%) 5-yr Yield 10-yr Yield 20-yr Yield IDR (rhs)
105
Strat rategi gic Po Polic icies ies in Financ ancia ial l Sector
Source: Financial Service Authority (OJK)
Providing financing alternatives for Goverment Priority Sectors Supporting acceleration of national economic growth Providing financial access to MSMEs especially in remote areas Preparing financial services industry to cope with Industrial Revolution 4.0 Improvement of business process in the industry
106
Conti tinu nuous
ital al Market t Deepen ening ing
…continuously strengthened, including through capital market deepening initiatives es
Strengthening market t infrast stru ructu cture re
Enhanci cing the supply-si side
fund, asset-backed securities, REITs, infrastructure fund, IGBF (Indonesia Government Bonds Future) & equity crowdfunding.
government, IDX incubators, SMEs, SOEs & big tax payers.
Enhanci cing the demand-side de Strengthening gov
rnance ce & custo tomer pro rotecti ction
Source: Financial Service Authority (OJK)
(insurers & pension funds) in capital markets .
investor education programs).
107
Enhanc ancing ing Finan ancial al Literac eracy & Inclus lusion ion
Source: Financial Service Authority (OJK)
OJK strives s to to build a strong foundati tion for r financi cial inclusi sion pro rogra rams, s, to to ensure re acce cess ss to to financi cial pro roducts cts & services ces by by Indo donesia esians of all socia cial classes
de the enhanceme cement of financia cial litera eracy cy and d financi cial consu sumer r pro rotecti ction
Developing financial education models utilizing various delivery channels Enhancing the role of the “Investment Alert Taskforce” The result of OJK’s 2019 national survey demonstrated an improvement in financial literacy & inclusion among Indon
s compa mpare red to to that t of 2016. 6.
Financ ncial Litera teracy Fina nanc ncial Inclusion
21.8% 8%
2013
Developing micro-credit products with additional business support (“KUR Klaster”) Promoting the establishment
microfinance institutions (“Bank Wakaf Mikro”) Strengthening the role of Financial Access Acceleration Taskforce (TPAKD) in local areas 29.7%
2016
38.03%
2019
2019 Target: 35%
59 59.7%
2013
67 67.8%
2016
76.19 19%
2019
2019 Target: 75%
108
A A Compreh rehen ensiv ive e Financial ancial Deepen ening ing Program gram …strategy
egy to tackle challenges in deepening Indonesia’s financial markets
Source: Bank Indonesia
In Apr-2016 016, the Mini nister er of Financ nce, e, the Gover erno nor of Bank k Indon
esia, and the Chairman n of the Board of Commission
ers of the Fina nanc ncial Services es Auth thori rity ty launc nched ed a Coord rdinati tion Forum for Devel elop
ent Financ ncing ng throu
ncial Market et (FK-PPPK). The three ee authori
es have agreed eed to formul ulate e “The Nation
Strateg egy y of Financ ncial Market et Devel elop
ent”
Vision: To Establish Deep, Liquid, Efficient, Inclusive, and Safe Financial Market
ECONOMIC FUNDING & RISK MANAGEMENT MARKET INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT POLICY COORDINATION, HARMONIZATION & EDUCATION Benchmark Rate & Standardization Instrument Fund Regulatory Framework Market Infrastructure Intermediaries Coordination & Education
Mission: Financial Market as Sources of National Development Financing
1 2 3
Money Market FX Market Bond Market Stock Market Syariah Market Structure Product Market
3 Pilars 6 Markets 7 Elements
Market Ecosystem
TARGET KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATOR STRATEGIC ACTION PLAN
109
BI’s Roles in Supporting Distribution of Non-Cas ash h Socia ial l Assista tance e (NCSA)
BI supports s gove vernment’s pro rogram of shifting social assista stance ce to to targeted non cash social assista stance ce disbursem sement thro rough the electr tronic c payment t system
tron
c mechanism sm disburse rsement t will be also
to LPG subsidy. NCSA Pro rogra rams
Family Hope e Program (Prog
uarga Harapan n -PKH) H) Smart Indone
Program (Prog
Indone
PIP) P) Non Cash Food Assistanc nce e (Bantuan Pangan Non Tunai – BPNT)
2016-2020 020
Pilot Pro roject Gradual Implementa tati tion
Inter erconnec ected ed & interop
ble paymen ment system em
LPG Subsidy dy
Full Implementa tati tion
XXYYZZ 12345678 5678
9876543210Source: Bank Indonesia
110
Progres ess of NCSA Program ams
Family ly Hope Pro rogra ram (Program m Keluarga Harapa pan - PKH) Non Cash Food Assist stance ce (Bantuan Pangan Non Tunai - BPNT)
provides cash to very poor households. Rp 1,89 million /year will be granted for each
May, August, and November.
to 6,0 million households on non-cash basis.
households on non-cash basis.
program that is managed by the central
to low-income households. Rp 110 thousand/month will be granted for each household as BPNT that can be used in certain stores which called e-warong.
1,2 million households in 44 cities.
households (65.1% of the target of 15.5 million households target).
Source: Bank Indonesia
million households
non-cash basis with realization of 82.52% of the 2019 budget.
Sept-2019, BPNT has been distributed to 13.0 million households with realization of 68.04% of the 2019 budget.
111
Strong
er Fundame damentals ntals Facin ing g the Headw dwinds inds
82.4 12.1 6.8 1998 2008 Sep-15 30 30 3.8 2,79 1998 2008 Aug-15 17.4 50.2 1998 2008 Sep-15
Inflation ion Rate (%) IDR Movem ement (%) Non Non-Per erfor
ing Loan/NP NPL (% (%) Gover ernmen ent Debt/G /GDP Foreig eign Reser erves (USD SD bn)
100.0% 1998 1998 27.4% 2008 2008 29.8% Q4 - 201 2019 8.6x 1998 1998 3.1x 2008 2008 3.1x Q4 - 201 2019 116.8% 1998 1998 33.2%
2008 2008
36.1%
Q4 - 2019 019
More e Liq iquid id Market et (%) Exter ernal l Debt (Publi lic & Priva ivate) e) to FX Reser erve e Ratio io Exter erna nal Debt/G /GDP
Inflat ation contro trolled within the target t range IDR appreciat ated year-to to-dat ate in April 2020 NPL level (gross) is below w the maximum threshold of 5% Consiste tently y well-mai aintained Significan antly y higher r than 1998 & 2008, , ample to cover r 7.0 month ths of import t and external al debt t repaym yment Significan antl tly y lower than 1998 crisis Slightl tly higher than 2008, , but significan antl tly lower than 1998 Mar ’20 121 121
Mar ’20
2.96 (yoy)
Feb ‘20 62 62 10.5 5.7 1998 2008 Jul-15
Overnight t interban ank k money y market t rate te is relat atively y lower
Tw IV ‘19
4.8
4.35
50 13-Apr-20 2008 1998 (ytd)
112
Outlook look of Domes esti tic Econom nomy Remains ins Robus ust
...dom
estic econom
rowth h is predi edicted ed to be modera derated ed in in 2019 and reboun bound d in 2020
2019 and 2020 Economic Outlook
Bank Indonesia projects economic growth in 2020 at around 2.3%, revised down from 4.2-4.6%. Bank Indonesia projects inflation in 2020 within the target range, namely 3.0%±1%. Bank Indonesia projects growth of outstanding loans disbursed by the banking industry in 2020 in the 6-8% range, revised down from
9-11% previously, in line with the revised economic growth projection in 2020. Economic nomic Grow
Inflation ion CAD D (% (% of
Credit edit Growt
Source : Bank Indonesia
2018 2018 Realizati tion
5.17% 7% 3.13 13% 2.98% 11 11.75 75% 201 2019 9 Realizati tion
5.02% 2.72% 2.72% 6.08% 20 2020 20 aro round 2.3 % 3. 3.0±1% 2.5 - 3 % 6.0-8. 8.0% 0%
Progre
ssiv ive e Infrastr astructure ture Develo elopmen ment: Strong g Commitment mmitment on Ac Acceleration eleration of Infrastr astructur ture e Provision ision
114
IIGF has the potential to provide project guarantee for non-PPP projects
The Govern ernmen ent t has Enacted ed Various rious Reform rms to Accele elerat rate e Infrastruct rastructure ure Provis vision ion
Fiscal Reform rms Institu tuti tion
rms Regulator
rms
Source: Committee for Acceleration of Priority Infrastructure Delivery (KPPIP)
Viability y Gap Funding ng (VGF) KPPIP Direc ect Lend nding ng Increase project financial feasibility by contributing up to 49% of the construction cost (MoF Reg. No. 223/2012) Availability y Payment ent Land nd Revol
ng Fund Issuance of regulatory framework to allow annuity payment by the Government during concession period to concessionaire since project operation based on infrastructure service availability (MoF
A revolving-fund sourced from State Budget, to accelerate land acquisition (MoF Reg. No. 220/2010) KPPIP is actively involved in accelerating delivery
na Multi Infrastrukt uktur ur Merging between PT. SMI and Gov’t Investment Center (PIP) to become an infrastructure funding company Indones
. Guarant ntee ee Fund (IIGF) PPP Unit Provide facilities to help GCA on preparing PPP project (PDF/TA) BLU U LMAN The State Asset Management Agency (BLU LMAN) is mandated to provide land fund for National Strategic Projects to ensure timely land acquisition process Allow guarantee for direct lending to SOE to accelerate financial close process for infrastructure projects (Presidential Reg. No. 82/2015) Land nd Acqui uisition
Stipulate land acquisition acceleration based on Law No. 2/2012 (Presidential Reg. No. 148/2015) and land acquisition fee payment for impacted community (Presidential Reg. No.56/2017) Econo nomy y Packa kages es Conduct deregulation for issues hindering infrastructure delivery and develop a task force under CMEA to ensure the effectiveness of economic packages implementation Risk-sharing ng Guidel elines nes IIGF has issued risk allocation and mitigation guidelines for PPP project Tax Incenti entives es (Tax Holiday) y) MoF Reg. No.35/2018 allowed 100% Tax Holiday for 17 Pioneering Industries for 5 – 20 years depending on the investment value Indon
esia Infrastruc ucture ure Guarantee ntee Fund (IIGF) IIGF has the potential to provide project guarantee for non-PPP projects
115
Some e of Most Recent nt Reform
Policy y reform
e a more re condu ducive e inves vestmen ent climate e for infr frast stru ructure re deliver ery
Source: Committee for Acceleration of Priority Infrastructure Delivery (KPPIP)
President dential Reg. No. 20/2018 on Use of Foreign n Labor – released on March 2018
This regulation aims at simpli lifying ing the e permit it appli lication ion proc
ess for foreig eign worker kers, hence making the process more efficient and faster, in order to rise foreign direct investment in Indonesia
President dential Reg. No. 56/2017 on Social Impact Handl dling ng in Land Acqui uisition
ess fo for PSN – released on June 2017
This Presidential Reg. allows the Exec ecuting ing Agen ency to pay land acquis isit ition ion compen ensation ion to the e impacted ed communit ity who does es not have e offic icial l rights
er the e land nd requir uired for PSN.
MoF No. 60/2017 on Procedur dures es fo for the Prov
ernm nmen ent Guarant ntee ee fo for the Accel eler eration
nal Strategic Projec ects Implem emen entation
The supporting regulation for Presidential Reg. No. 3/2016 on the Acceleration of the National Strategic Projects Implementation. This regula lation
regula lates es the e scop
e and gener eral l requir irem emen ents and proc
edures to prop
e and grant guarantee ees, , as well l as alloc
e state e budget et ob
igation ion on gover ernmen ent guarantees es to all PSN.
implementation of PSN.
Gov
ernm nmen ent Reg. No. 13/2017 on Nationa nal Spatial Plan n (RTRWN) – released on April 2017
The issuance of RTRWN can resolve spatial planning mismatch in the implementation of infrastructure projects listed in the annex of Government Reg.
ister er of Agrarian and Spatia ial l can issue e a recom
endation ion of spatia ial l util iliz ization ion; ; so that the e proc
ining proje
ion can be done. e.
MoF No. 21/2017 on Procedur edures es fo for Land Acqui uisition
for Nationa
egic Projec ects and Asset et Managem emen ent of Land Acqui uisition
State Asset et Managem ement Agen ency – released on February 2017
The implementing regulation of Presidential Reg. No. 102/2016 on Financing of Land Acquisition for the Development of Public Interest in the Framework of the National Strategic Implementation. This regulation becomes the legal basis for the financing of the procurement of National Strategic and Priority Projects by BLU LMAN.
116
Reforms Along the Project’s Life Cycle
...to
ge and accelera erate e infr frast stru ructure re proj roject ect using PPP schem eme Govern vernment ent of Indones esia
Pro roject ct Deve velop
t Facility ty (PDF) Viability y Funding Gap (VGF) Guarantee tee Fund Tax Facilitie ties Ava vailabi bility ty Payment Land Ac Acqu quisition
Preparation Bidding Process Construction
Project development facility contributing to assist GCA on PPP project preparation (PDF&TA) Managing entity: KPPIP, PT SMI PT IIF, and Ministry of Finance A facility with contribution to construction cost to increase project financial viability Managing Entitiy: Ministry of Finance based
Gov’t. commitment: 49% max. Per project cost
Guaranteeing
infrastructure concession agreements and Mof Regulation No 130/PMK. 08/2016 re: Govt guarantee for electricity project acceleration Managing entity: IIGF and MoF Govt’s comitment: US$ 450 mn
MoF Reg. No. 159/PMK. 010/2015 re: tax holiday for pioneer sector, such as base metal, oil refinery, basic petrochemical, machinery, renewable energy, & telco equipment industries. Sector will be further expanded Managing entitiy: Ministry of Finance A scheme in which concessionaires receive sum of money periodically from central or regional government after the completion
MoF Regulation, and MoHA Regulation on Availability Payment has been ratified. Managing entity: Ministry of Finance & Ministry of Home Affairs A facility to support land acquisition for infrastructure projects particularly projects that involve private sector Managing enitiy: Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Agrarian and Land Spatial/BPN and BLU-LMAN Gov’t. commitment: US$ 12 mn (2016) Source: Committee for Acceleration of Priority Infrastructure Delivery (KPPIP)
117
Effor
ts to Acceler elerate e Infrastruct rastructure ure Provis vision ion
Re Regulation
ment to to accel elera erate land procureme ement proces ess
acquisition duration for the Government Contracting Agencies and the Investors. The Law sets an estimated 583 days maximum time to complete the land acquisition process.
has been revised into the Presidential Regulation No. 30 of 2015. The Amendment to the Regulation allows a Business Entity to allocate funding for a land acquisition which can be reimbursed by the Government following the completion of land acquisition process. With this Regulation, the land acquisition process is expected not to be delayed by the unallocated budget or the delay on the budget disbursement.
Land Procureme ement t Proces ess as Stipulate ted in Law No. 2 of 2012
Law No
012 was succes essful ully applied ed in in: 1.
embang ng – Indralaya sec ection
Sumater era Toll Road Proj
ect 2.
ne Double Track Rail Proj
ect
Source: Committee for Acceleration of Priority Infrastructure Delivery (KPPIP)
118
Effor
ts to Acceler elerate e Infrastruct rastructure ure Provis vision ion
…the establishment of Indones
set Managem gemen ent Agen ency y (LMAN AN)
Source: Ministry of Finance
Govern
ent has establ blished hed State e Asset set Managem gemen ent Unit (LMAN) AN) as a solution
accelera erate e the land acqu quisition
hrough
e pro rovision
quisi sition
1. Unutilized fund can be allocated for the following year 2. Non-project-specific land acquisition fund allocation. Unused allocated fund can flexibly be made available for the
3. Land acquisition fund for PSN projects is managed under one agency
through the issuance of MoF Reg. 219/2015 concerning State Assets Management
land acquisition fund as a support to Ministry
shortage of fund to acquire land for priority toll roads
National Strategic Projects through the issuance of MoF Reg. 21/2017 concerning land acquisition financing guideline for PSN
US$ 881.48 Million (IDR 11.9 Trillion) through bridging finance scheme for 27 toll road projects, and planned to start the implementation of direct payment scheme
Land d Ac Acqu quisition
dgeting g Schem eme LMAN N at a Glance This s LMAN AN initiative ve pro rovi vides des bet etter r flex exibi bility, coor
dination
managem gemen ent of land acqu quisi sition
d pro rovi visi sion
egic Pro roject ects (PSN) N)
119
New ew Fundame damental ntal Regulat lations ions Have Been een Initi tiat ated ed in 2017
to accelera erate e infra rast stru ructure re proj roject ects deliver ery
Source: Committee for Acceleration of Priority Infrastructure Delivery (KPPIP)
Gov
ernm nment ent Reg. No. 13/2017 on Nationa nal Spatial Plan n (RTRWN) The issuance of RTRWN can resolve spatial planning mismatch in the implementation of infrastructure projects listed in the annex of Government Reg. No. 13/2017. A number of breakthroughs were developed, and one of them is that the Minister of Agrarian and Spatial can issue a recommendation of spatial utilization; so that the process of
permission can be done.
MoF No. 60/2017 on Procedur dures es fo for the Prov
ernm nmen ent Guarant ntee ee fo for the Accel eler eration
nal Strategic Projec ects Implem ement ntation
The supporting regulation for Presidential Reg. No. 3/2016 on the Acceleration of the National Strategic Projects
grant guarantees, as well as allocate state budget obligation on government guarantees to all PSN. The guarantee provision is expected to increase the feasibility and trust of investors to participate in the implementation of PSN.
President dential Reg. No. 56/2017 on Social Impact Handl dling ng in Land Acqui uisi sition
ess fo for PSN This Presidential Reg. allows the Executing Agency to pay land acquisition compensation to the impacted community who does not have official rights over the land required for PSN. This regulation helps to solve the land acquisition problem due to community objection over the land use.
MoF No. 21/2017 on Procedur edures es fo for Land Acqui uisition
for Nationa
egic Projec ects and Asset et Managem ement ent of Land Acqui uisi sition
et Managem ement ent Agen ency The implementing regulation of Presidential Reg. No.102/2016 on Financing of Land Acquisition for the Development of Public Interest in the Framework of the National Strategic Implementation. This regulation becomes the legal basis for the financing of the procurement of National Strategic and Priority Projects by BLU LMAN
120
Under der Presidential idential Reg. No.56/2018, , PSN N list t has been n revised ed into
jects and 3 Program grams
projects
27
Projects53 53
Projects17
Projects12 12
ProjectsSulawes esi
US$23.4 B
Kalimanta tan
US$35.7 B
Sumatr tra
US$43.6 B
Maluku ku & Papua
US$34.5 B
89 89 3
Programs
ProjectsNati tional
Projects
1 2
Projects
Java va
US$72.7 B US$100 100.7 B
13 13
Bali & Nusa a Tenggar ara US$0.7 B
Exchange rate: US$ 1 = IDR 13,500
Road 69 Projects Dams 51 Projects SEZs & IEs 29 Projects Railway 16 Projects Energy 11 Projects Ports 10 Projects Clean Water & Sanitation 8 Projects Airports 7 Projects Irigation 6 Projects Smelter 6 Projects Electricity 1 Program Technology 4 Projects Housing 3 Projects Fisheries/Farming 1 Projects Sea Dike 1 Projects Education 1 Projects Economic Equality 1 Program Aeroplane Industry 1 Program
Projec ect Program
PSN includes des 15 15 sectors rs at projec roject leve evel and 3 sectors rs at prog rogram leve evel
Source: Committee for Acceleration of Priority Infrastructure Delivery (KPPIP)
Projects121
PSN N may y receiv eive e privil ivilege eges as stip ipula ulated ed in the e Pres esid identia ential l Reg. . No. 3/2016 6 j.o j.o. . the e Pres esid ident entia ial l Reg. . No. 58/2017
01 01 02 03
Determination of National Strategic Projects
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 10 11 12
Permit & Non-permit Completion Spatial Planning Land clearing acceleration Local Content Utilization Government Guarantee Provision Projects Monitoring via KPPIP IT System SOE’s Assignment Problems and Hindrance Completion Accelerate Goods and Service Procurement Settlement of Legal Issues Acceleration of Non- State Budget Projects
Additional Facilities Existing Facilities Source: Committee for Acceleration of Priority Infrastructure Delivery (KPPIP)
122
Progres gress on 223 Projec jects ts and 3 Progra grams PSN
The Estima mated Invest stmen ment Value for 223 Project cts + 3 P Progra rams ms PSN1
1Exclude 7 projects which investment value are still unknownExchange rate : US$ 1 = IDR 13,500
Source: Committee for Acceleration of Priority Infrastructure Delivery (KPPIP)
State Budget 10% SOEs/ RSOEs 31% Private 59% Total Inve vest stme ment Value2
US$ 307.4 .4 Billion lion
State Budget US$ 31.6 Bn Bn SOEs/RSOEs US$ 96.6 Bn Bn Private US$ 179.2 Bn Bn
5 Sectors
h Highest ghest Inves estmen ent Value
Energy 11 Projects US$ 89.8 Bn Electricity 1 Program US$ 76.7 Bn Roads 69 Projects US$ 49.7 Bn Railways 16 Projects US$ 29.2 Bn SEZs and IEs 31 Projects US$ 31 Bn
123
Progres gress on 223 Projec jects ts and 3 Progra grams PSN
Progress s of National Strate tegic c Projects s (as of Decembe ber 2018)
Source: Committee for Acceleration of Priority Infrastructure Delivery (KPPIP)
32 projects already completed 32 projects, 1 electricity program, and 1 economic equality program in construction and partial-operation phase 48 projects in construction and will start operating in 2019 52 projects in construction and will start operating after 2019 14% 14% 15% 15% 21% 21% 23% 23% 3% 3% 24% 24% 6 projects in transaction 53 projects and 1 Aircraft Industry Program in preparation phase
Progress s of National Strate tegic c Projects s (as of Septembe ber r 2019)
51 projects already completed 27 projects, 1 electricity program, and 1 economic equality program in construction and partial-operation phase 22 projects in construction and will start operating in 2019 80 projects in construction and will start operating after 2019 4 projects in transaction 39 projects and 1 Aircraft Industry Program in preparation phase
22% 13% 12% 33% 3% 18%
124
In 2016 - 2018, , 62 PSNs have been Completed ed with h Tot
al Estimat ated ed Investm tmen ent t Value ue of
.7 Billion ion
Source: Committee for Acceleration of Priority Infrastructure Delivery (KPPIP)
125
Progres gress on 37 Priorit
jects
Fro rom the revise sed National Strateg tegic c Pro rojects, cts, the Gove vern rnment t has select cted a list of 37 Priority y Pro rojects cts to to be the focus s of
infrastruct cture e pro rovi visi sion.
Source: Committee for Acceleration of Priority Infrastructure Delivery (KPPIP)
1. Balikpapan-Samarinda Toll Road 2. Manado-Bitung Toll Road 3. Panimbang-Serang Toll Road 4. 15 Segments of Trans – Sumatera Toll Road 5. Probolinggo – Banyuwangi Toll Road 6. Yogyakarta – Bawean Toll Road 7. SHIA Express Railway 8. MRT Jakarta South-North Line 9. Makassar-Parepare Railway 10. Light Rail Transit (LRT) of Jakarta-Depok- Bogor-Bekasi 11. LRT of South Sumatera 12. East Kalimantan Railway 13. LRT of DKI Jakarta 14. Kuala Tanjung International Hub Seaport 15. Bitung International Hub Seaport 16. Patimban Port 17. Inland Waterways Cikarang-Bekasi-Laut (CBL) 18. Palapa Ring Broadband 19. Batang, Central Java Power Plant (CJPP) 20. Central – West Java Transmission Line 500 kV 21. Indramayu Coal-fired Power Plant 22. Sumatera 500 kV Transmission (4 Provinces) 23. Mulut Tambang Coal-fired Power Plant (6 Provinces) 24. PLTGU (16 Provinces) 25. Bontang Oil Refinery 26. Tuban Oil Refinery 27. RDMP/Revitalization of the Existing Refineries (Balikpapan, Cilacap, Balongan, Dumai, Plaju) 28. Abadi WK Masela Field 29. Unilization Field Has Jambaran-Tiung Biru 30. Indonesian Deepwater Development (IDD) 31. Tangguh LNG Train 3 Development 32. West Semarang Drinking Water Supply System 33. Jakarta Sewerage System 34. National Capital Integrated Coastal Development (NCICD) Phase A 35. Jatiluhur Drinking Water Supply 36. Lampung Drinking Water Supply 37. Waste to Energy Program in 8 cities
126
Progres gress on 37 Priorit
jects
Recent ent Miles eston
es Prog
ess of 37 Priori
ects (as of Septem ember er, 2019) Funding ng Scheme e of 37 Priori rity ty Proj
ects
Loan Agreement has been signed on 15 November 2017. On March 2018, pre-qualification stage has resulted 4 shortlisted bidders Allocation of repayment liability on additional-loan for Phase I and Phase II has been decided in the KPPIP Ministerial meeting – 49% will be borne by Central Government and 51% will be borne Provincial Government of DKI Jakarta.
Patimba mban Po Port
West Semarang ng Water Supply System em:
Mass ss Rapid d Transi sit (MRT) Jaka karta South-Nor
Source: Committee for Acceleration of Priority Infrastructure Delivery (KPPIP)
66% 66% 26% 26% 8% 8%
US$120.7 billion from Private/ PPP US$47.7 billion from SOE/ Regional SOE US$15.5 billion State/ Regional Budget (including G-to-G loan)
Exchange rate : US$ 1 = IDR 13,500
Total Investment Value US$ 183.9 Billion
West package has been fully operasional since April 2018.
Palapa Ring
Note: This data is still going to be verified by The Executive Office of President (KSP) and Indonesia’s National Government Internal Auditor (BPKP)
Outline Business Case has been done on December 2017.
Yogyakarta-Bawen en Toll Ro Road
6% 6% 16% 16% 30% 30% 24% 24% 8% 8% 16% 16% 3 projects in transaction 6 projects in preparation 6 projects in construction and partial operation phase 2 project is completed 11 projects in construction and will start operating in 2019 9 projects in construction and will start operating after 2019
127
Energy rgy Sector:
gress of 35.0 .000 MW Program gram
No No Phase MW MW % 1 Operating 3,792 11 2 Construction 22,739 62 3 Signed Power-purchase Agreement 6,923 21 4 Procurement 1,279 4 5 Planning 734 2 17 Dec ‘14 Cabinet et Meeti ting “There’s electricity crisis in Indonesia, requires construction of large capacity plant "
Jan ‘15
Aver erage e economic growt wth of 6.7% % requires es 7,000 MW / year r or 35,000 MW / 5 years (Kepmen ESDM No. 0074/2015 on RUPTL 2015-2024)
Jan ‘15
Debott ttlen enec ecki king through reg egulati tion:
No.1/2015 concerning electricity supply cooperation & joint utilization
the electrical network among license holders.
Purchasing Electrical Power and benchmark prices for Electrical Power through the Direct Selection & Appointment.
16 Mar ‘15 4 May ‘15 June‘17
Cabinet et Meeti ting Progress of 35,000 MW Launching 35.000 MW by the President in Goa Beach Sanden DIY The progres ess so far:
Sulawesi PLN: 2,000 MW Private: 1,470 MW Transmission: 5,275 ckt.km Substation: 4,390 MVA Maluku PLN: 260 MW Private: 12 MW Transmission: 653 ckt.km Substation: 620 MVA Papua PLN : 220 MW Private: 0 MW Transmission: 364 ckt.km Substation: 460 MVA Kalimantan PLN: 900 MW Private: 1,735 MW Transmission: 5,604 ckt.km Substation: 3,500 MVA Nusa Tenggara PLN: 670 MW Private: 0 MW Transmission: 2,347 ckt.km Substation: 1,410 MVA Sumatera PLN: 1,100 MW Private: 8,990 MW Transmission: 18,729 ckt.km Substation: 35,521 MVA Jawa & Bali PLN: 5,000 MW Private: 13,697 MW Transmission: 9,185 ckt.km Substation: 66,265 MVA
35,000 000 MW Prog
ution
Source: PLN
Source: Committee for Acceleration of Priority Infrastructure Delivery (KPPIP)
Note : Progress of 35,000 MW Electricity Program as of August 2019
128
Energy rgy Sector:
gress of 35.0 .000 MW Program gram
Decembe ber 2016
Source: Committee for Acceleration of Priority Infrastructure Delivery (KPPIP)
706 MW in operating phase 10,141 MW in construction phase 8,478 MW sighned Power-purchase Agreement 10,560 MW in procurement phase
2% 2% 28% 28% 24% 24% 30% 30% 16% 16%
5,824 MW in planning phase
3% 3% 44% 44% 38% 38% 9% 9% 6% 6% 8% 8% 52% 52% 32% 32% 5% 5% 3% 3% 19% 19% 57% 57% 19% 19% 3% 3% 2% 2%
998 MW in operating phase 15,676 MW in construction phase 13,782 MW sighned Power-purchase Agreement 3,163 MW in procurement phase 2,228 MW in planning phase 2,899 MW in operating phase 18,207 MW in construction phase 11,467 MW sighned Power-purchase Agreement 1,683 MW in procurement phase 954 MW in planning phase 6,811 MW in operating phase 20,168 MW in construction phase 6,678 MW sighned Power-purchase Agreement 829 MW in procurement phase 734 MW in planning phase
November r 2017 Decembe ber 2018 Decembe ber 2019
129
Acceler elerati ation
.000 MW Program gram
Gov
rnment PT PLN
EPC Pow
erplant nt and Transmission
PLN Subsidiary (Joi
nt Ventur nture) e) Indep epend endent ent Power er Prod
ucer er
Strengthen hen Equity 2B 2B 1
Gover ernm nment ent Support (outside e Guarantee) ntee)
Local Content ent Obligation on the usage of local content through an open book system, price guideline, reverse engineering or other methods to maximise the local content.
2A 2A
Assignm nment ent SJKU KU* Mini nistry
nce
Strengthe hen PLN‘s Balance e Sheet et
*)SJKU=Surat Jaminan Kelayakan Usaha/ Business Viability Guarantee Letter The Gover ernm nment ent has issued ued Pres esidenti ential Regul ulation
016 on Elec ectricity y Infrastruc ucture ure Accel eler eration
erate e pow
er proj
ects Prov
ectricity Refina nanc ncing ng Hedging ng Financ ncial Asset et Optimization
Direct Lending Direct Lending Bond issuance by PT PLN Company Tax Holiday PT PLN’s divident allocation Loan from independent lenders Asset Revaluation Other types of funding Equity Injection by the Government
Source: Committee for Acceleration of Priority Infrastructure Delivery (KPPIP)
130
Signif nificant ant Progres gress on Infrastruct rastructure ure Projec jects
Database Project information such as map, track, existing study and latest project status. An integrated ed IT system with monitoring capacity for stakeholders, so that they can have real time data. Platfor
that is efficient and functional using a user- friendly framework. Record decisions related to projects and synchr hroni
e the implementation schedule that can be utilized by stakeholders.
KPPIP developed an integrated IT System for monitoring of national strategic and priority projects, providing database on projects’ latest status which can be effectively utilized for monitoring and decision- making purposes. Improving Monitori toring System em on Infrastr tructure ture Projec ects ts1 Roads
Trans-Sumatra Toll Road Merah Putih Bridge, Ambon
Dams ms
Jatigede Dam (Operational)
Transportation ion
Jakarta MRT Project2
Drink nking ing Water er Proc
essing ing
Umbulan Drinking Water Provi vision System, East Java va 1 Source: Committee for Acceleration of Priority Infrastructure Delivery (KPPIP)
2 Not funded from National Budget
Terminal 3 Ultimate Soekarno-Ha Hatta2 New Tanjung Priok Port Project2 Nop Goliat Dekai, Papua
131
Infrastruct rastructure ure Projec jects and Financi ncing g Sche hemes es
Prom romotion
frast structure re Devel evelop
ent to Ac Accelera erate e Econom
rowth
Esta tablishment of PPP PPP Unit
Broad ad Objective Champion project preparation and acceleration of the PPP agenda in Indonesia Core Man andat ates Improve quality of project selection under KPPIP – OBC criteria Support project preparation through PDF support and highlyqualified transactionadvisors Act on behalf the Minister of Finance in providing government support and approvals for projects Additional al Man andates Coordinate all public financeinstruments Provide input for PPP Policy program Development andRegulations Implement capacity building forGovt. Contracting Agency(GCAs) One stop shop for PPP promotion & Information
Budget et Public Private te Part rtner ership SOE E & Pri riva vate Secto tor
Ce Central & regional budget (special al allocat ation fund & rural tran ansfer) Prima marily to to support basic infras astructureprojects: – Foodsecurity: Irrigation, dams etc. – Mar aritime me: Seaports, shipyardsetc. – Connectivity: Village roads, public transportationetc. Certain infrastructure projects to be funded and operated through a partnership between the Indonesian governme ment and the priva vate sector – Projects ready for auction under the PPP Scheme: – Toll roads projects such as Balikpapan-Samarinda andManado-Bitung – Railway projects such as an express line into Soekarno-Hatta International Airport – Water supply projects such as the West SemarangProject Various governme ment support for PPP: – Project Devel velopme ment Facility (PDF): Helps Government Contracting Agencies (GCAs) in project preparation and transaction – Viab ability Gap Fund: improves financial viability of PPP projects – Gove vernment Guar arantees: Supports PPP projects’ bankability by providing sovereignguarantees – Infrastructure Financing Fund: Provided through PT SMI and IIGF – Avai ailab ability Payment (AP): GCA pays private partner based of availability of infrastructure services Government to inject capital into SOEs OEs: Intended multiplier effect to develop more infrastructure projects Key focusareas: – Infrastructure and maritimedevelopment – Transportation and connectivity – Food security Medium m term m infras astructure devel velopme ments to focuson: – WaterSupply – Airports – Seaports – Electricity and power plants – Housing – Mining
Source : Ministry of Finance; Bappenas; KPPIP: “Komite Kebijakan Percepatan Penyediaan Infrastruktur” or National Committee for the Acceleration of Infrastructure Delivery Note: OBC: Outline Business Case; PDF: Project Development Facility; GCA: Government Contracting Activity
Infrastructure Development in order to:
Infrastructure fundrai aising needs: $357.9 bn bn (or equivalent to IDR4,796.2 tn) 245 245 National Strategy Projects under National Medium Term Plan for 2015 – 2019 with an estimated total cost of IDR 4,197 tn (USD 313 bn) 37 priority infras astructure projects with an estimated cost of IDR 2,490 tn (USD 180 billion) Majority of 37 priority projects are expected to commence commercial operation by 2018 - 2022
Infra rastr tructu ture e Devel elop
t is a Key Prior
ty
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Governm rnment ent Guarant rantee ee For Basic Infrastruc rastructure ture Developm lopment ent
Re Reflec ects s stron
g commitmen ent to nation
evelop
ent planning
Source: Ministry of Finance No. Central al Gover vernme ment Guar aran antee for Infrastructure Programs ams Exposure/ Outstan anding (USD bn bn) 1 Coal Power Plant 10,000 MW Fast Track Program (FTP 1) 1.75 2 Clean Water Supply Program 0.01 3 Direct Lending from International Financial Institution to SOEs 1.46 4 Sumatra Toll Road 1.53 5 Renewable energy, Coals & Gas Power Plant 10,000 MW (FTP 2) 6.78 6 Public-Private Partnerships (PPP) 3.35 7 Regional Infrastructure Financing 0.19 8 Public Transportation (Light Rail Transit) 0.07 9 Electricity Infrastructure Fast Track Program (35GW) 0.06 Total al 15.20
Conting ingen ent Liabil ilit ities ies from
ernmen ent Guarantee ees Gover ernmen ent Guarantee ntee Program Cred edit t Guarante tee PPP Guarante tee
Business Viability Guar aran antee (BVG) Power (Electricity) – Full credit guarantee for PT PLN’s debt payment obligation under FTP 1 10,000MW and 35GW programs*. Cl Clean an Water – Guarantee for 70% of PDAM’s debt principal payment obligations. Toll road ad – Full credit guarantee for PT Hutama Karya’s debt payment obligations for the development of Sumatra Toll Roads. Infrastructure - Full credit guarantee on SOE’s borrowing from international financial institution & guarantee for PT SMI’s local infrastructure financing. Public Tran ansportat ation (Light Rail Tran ansit) – Full credit guarantee for PT Kereta Api Indonesia’s debt payment
Power (Electricity) – Guarantee for PT PLN’s obligations under Power Purchase Agreements with IPPs (off-take and political risk) under FTP-2 10.000MW and 35GW programs* Infrastructure – Guarantee for Government-related entities obligations (line ministries, local governments, SOEs, local SOEs) under PPP contracts/agreements From 2008 to Q3-2019, the Government has issued 84 guarantee documents with total value of USD35.44 billion, 23 of which (worth USD3.44 billion) have expired. The Maximum Guarantee Limit for the period 2018 – 2021 is set at 6% of GDP. The space for guarantee issuance for the period 2018-2021 is approximately IDR 1,200 trillion (cumulative). As of end of September 2019; currency conversion of IDR 14,147/USD1 (Sept 30, 2019)
Politi tical Risk k Guara rantee tee
Infrastructure – Guarantee against infrastructure risks for National Strategic Projects (Presidential Decree No.58/2017) which are not covered by other type of guarantees *) MOF provides both credit guarantees and BVGs for 35GW program
133
Governm rnmen ent t Financ ancial ial Facilit ilities ies for PPP P Projec jects ts
Financial Facilities es to Attract More Private e Participation
Those financial facilities were instrumental in supporting the execution of PPP projects, indicated by the signing of financial close
Viability Gap Fund (VG VGF) Projec ect Dev evel elop
ent Facility (PDF) Gov
ernm nmen ent Guarant ntees ees (direc ectly by MoF or throug ugh h IIGF) Financing ng from PT
Availability Paymen ent Schemes es More e Funding Schemes es are on the Pipel elines es
Project Financing funded ed by the private vate secto tor through the granting of concessions for an operating asset
Project Financing funded ed by any source of funds
management funds (insurance, repatriated funds from tax amnesty, pension funds, etc.), private equity investors and infrastructure funds. Supported & facilitated by National Development Planning Ministry/Bappenas.
years
Schem eme e Characte teri risti tics Schem eme e Characte teri risti tics
LCS (Limited ed Conces ession
Scheme) e) PINA NA (Non
ernm nmen ent Budget et Infrastruc uctur ure e Financing)
Source: Ministry of Finance
134
Progres gress of PPP P Infrastruct rastructure ure Projec jects
No No Projec ect t Name Projec ect t Cost t (IDR tn tn) Financial Faciliti ties es Statu tus 1 Central Java Power Plant 40 Guarantee (MoF & IIGF) FC on June 6th, 2016; Construction 30%; COD Target: May 2020 2 Palapa Ring – West Package 1.28 PDF, IIGF Guarantee & AP FC on August 11th, 2016; COD target: February 2018 3 Palapa Ring – Central Package 1.38 PDF, IIGF Guarantee & AP FC on September 29th, 2016; COD target: March 2018 4 Palapa Ring – East Package 5.13 PDF, IIGF Guarantee & AP FC on March 29th, 2017; COD target: September 2018 5 Umbulan Water 2.1 PDF, VGF & IIGF Guarantee FC on August 30th, 2016; COD target: July 2019
Successful ful Projec ects Reachi hing ng Financ ncial Clos
e in 2016 and 2017
No No Projec ect t Name Projec ect t Cost t (IDR tn tn) Financial Faciliti ties es Statu tus 1 Batang–Semarang Toll Road 11 IIGF Guarantee PPP & guarantee contracts signed on April 27th, 2016 2 Manado–Bitung Toll Road 5.1 IIGF Guarantee PPP & guarantee contracts signed on June 8th, 2016 3 Samarinda–Balikpapan Toll Road 9.9 IIGF Guarantee PPP & guarantee contracts signed on June 8th, 2016 4 Pandaan–Malang Toll Road 5.9 IIGF Guarantee PPP & guarantee contracts signed on June 8th, 2016 5 Serpong–Balaraja Toll Road 6.0
6 Jakarta–Cikampek Elevated Toll Road 14.8 Co guarantee (MoF & IIGF) PPP & guarantee contracts both signed on December 5th, 2016 and February 22nd, 2017 7 Krian–Legundi-Krian Toll Road 9.0 Co guarantee (MoF & IIGF) PPP & guarantee contracts both signed on December 5th, 2016 and February 22nd, 2017 8 Serang–Panimbang Toll Road 5.3 Co guarantee (MoF & IIGF) PPP & guarantee contracts signed on February 22nd, 2017 9 Cileunyi–Sumedang-Dawuan Toll Road 8.2 Co guarantee (MoF & IIGF) PPP & guarantee contracts signed on February 22nd, 2017
Signed ed PPP Projects in 2016 and 2017
Source: Ministry of Finance, as of July 2017
135
New Guaran arantee ee Schem emes es for Non-PPP PPP Projec jects ts
The Government had issued Preside dent ntial Regul ulation
No 82 82/2015 and Mini nistry of
nce Reg egul ulation
No 189 189/2015 to provide guarantee for SOE Direct Lending from IFIs for the Development of Infrastructure Projects. Guarant ntee ee on SOE Direct Lending ng from Inter erna nationa
utions ns (IFIs) s) Guarant ntee ee fo for Regiona
uctur ure e Financing ng Prov
sion
State finance e soundn ndnes ess Fiscal sustaina nabiliy Best practice e of fiscal risk managem emen ent The objective of this guarantee is to prov
de credit enhanc ncem emen ent in terms of low
est rate and long ng tenor financing ng, with 3 main n principles: es:
The Government had issued Ministry of
Fina nance Regul ulation
No 174 174 of
2016 to provide guarantee to PT SMI on the assignment
regional infrastructure financing provision, by loan to local governments that is transferred from PIP to PT SMI, and new loan channeled by PT SMI to the local government. Based
Gov
ernm nment ent Regul ulati tion
No
95/2015 2015 and Mini nistry of
nanc nce Reg egul ulation
232/2015 2015, Minister of Finance assigns PT SMI (Sarana Multi Infrastruktur) to carry out functions in providing loan to local government, as previously carried
by PIP (Government Investment Center). The objective is to give stimul ulus us to to the accel eler eration
loc
inf nfrastruc ucture ure dev evel elopment ent through the ease of access to infrastructure financing and to boost local economic growth, as well as to provide alternative financing schemes in
to meet local infrastructure development needs and to reduce reliance on state/local budget.
136