0 About Invest stor or Relation ons s Unit (IRU) U) ABOUT THE - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
0 About Invest stor or Relation ons s Unit (IRU) U) ABOUT THE - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
0 About Invest stor or Relation ons s Unit (IRU) U) ABOUT THE REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA INVESTOR RELATIONS UNIT The Republic of Indonesia Investor Relations Unit (IRU) has been established as the joint effort between the Coordinating Ministry of
Published by Investor Relations Unit – Republic of Indonesia Contact: Wiwit Widyastuti K. (International Department - Bank Indonesia, Phone: +6221 2981 8279) Dalyono (Fiscal Policy Office – Ministry of Finance) Subhan Noor (Debt Management Office - Ministry of Finance, Phone: +6221 381 0175) E-mail: contactIRU-DL@bi.go.id ABOUT THE REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA INVESTOR RELATIONS UNIT The Republic of Indonesia Investor Relations Unit (IRU) has been established as the joint effort between the Coordinating Ministry of Economic Affairs, Ministry of Finance and Bank Indonesia since 2005. The main objective of IRU is to actively communicate Indonesian economic policy and address concerns of investors, especially financial market investors. IRU is expected to serve as a single point of contact for the financial market participants. As an important part of its communication measures, IRU maintains a website under Bank Indonesia website which is being administrated by the International Department of Bank Indonesia. However, investor relations activities involve a coordinated efforts which are supported by all relevant government agencies, i.e. Bank Indonesia, the Ministry of Finance, the Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs, Investment Coordinating Board, Ministry of Trade, Ministry of Industry, State Ministry of State Owned Enterprises, State Asset Management Company, and the Central Bureau of Statistics. IRU also holds an investor conference call on a quarterly basis, answers questions through email, telephone and may arrange direct visit of banks/financial institutions to Bank Indonesia and other relevant government offices.
About Invest stor
- r Relation
- ns
s Unit (IRU) U)
1
Table of Content
Exec ecut utive e Summa mmary Pre reser served ed Macroec econo nomi mic Stability ty Improved ed Intern ernati ational nal Percep epti tion n and Risi sing ng Invest estme ment nt Pruden ent Fisc scal al Manag nageme ement nt Governmen ernment t Debt t Performa manc nce
2
Executive Summary
3
Executive ve Summa mary ry
- The first-quarter growth in Indonesia was moderate, with a rebound forecasted in the second quarter of 2015. Consumption was
expected strong in the first quarter, while investment and exports indicated a slow down. Looking ahead, there is a risk that the economy in 2015 may grow slower, nearing the lower end of the 5.4-5.8% range. This will be determined by the vast and promptness of Government infrastructure projects realization, along with resilient consumption and gradually improving exports.
- Indonesia’s trade balance was expected to record a surplus in March 2015, primarily bolstered by a non-oil and gas surplus. The trade
surplus in March 2015 is projected to be higher than that of the previous month, mainly due to a buoyant non-oil and gas trade surplus. A decrease in oil and gas trade deficit also occurred on the January-March 2015 period, as an implication of the Government subsidy reform.
- The rupiah depreciated as the US dollar gained on nearly all global currencies. The rupiah slid by an average of 2.37% (mtm) to
Rp13,066 per US dollar in March 2015. Point to point, the rupiah closed down 1.14% at Rp13,074 per US dollar. Albeit weakening, depreciation of Rupiah was somewhat limited compared to other emerging market currencies.
- Inflation was controlled in March 2015, thereby supporting the inflation target of 4±1% in 2015. After experiencing deflation during the
first two months of 2015, inflation was 0.17% (mtm) or 6.38% (yoy) in March 2015, stemming from administered prices. Nonetheless, volatile food deflation and smaller core inflation helped to keep March inflation under control.
- Financial system stability remained solid, supported by banking system resilience and stable financial market performance. The
banking industry remained resilient, with credit, liquidity and market risks well mitigated and the support of a sound capital base. The Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) in February 2015 was 21.3%, well beyond the 8% minimum, while non-performing loans (NPL) remain low and stable at 2.0%.
- Bank Indonesia Board meeting on April 14, 2015 has decided to hold the BI Rate at 7.50%, setting the Deposit Facility rate at 5.50%
and Lending Facility rate at 8.00%. This decision is in line with the ongoing efforts to keep inflation within the target of 4±1% for 2015 and 2016, and to control current account deficit towards a healthier level at 2.5-3% of GDP in the medium term.
- Bank Indonesia remains strongly committed to strengthening its monetary and macroprudential policy mix, as well as stepping-up
coordination with the government to curb inflation and current account deficit, while encouraging speedy structural reforms.
- On the fiscal front, Indonesia will continue its prudent fiscal management in 2015 with strong commitment to fiscal consolidation.
Recent reform policy represents an essential step and integral part of structural reforms to strengthen economic fundamentals in Indonesia. 2015 revised budget deficit is projected at a safe level of 1.91% of GDP .
4
Executive ve Summa mary ry
GDP Growth Inflation Foreign Exchange Reserves Balance of Payments 5
* Preliminary Figures
6
Source: Ministry of Finance
Debt Composition Table of Debt to GDP Ratio Central Government Debt to GDP Ratio (% of GDP)
Executive ve Summa mary ry
Note:
- Using GDP at Current Market Prices [2010 Version]
- *) Preliminary Figures
24.5% 23.1% 23.0% 24.9% 24.7%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*
53.7% 54.9% 55.5% 53.2% 56.7% 56.2% 46.3% 45.1% 44.5% 46.8% 43.3% 43.8% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*) Mar-15
Domestic Debt Foreign Debt
2015 Policy y Summa mary ry
Government coordinates policy tools to stabilize growth with macroeconomic management
Capital injection to state-owned companies, as agents
- f
development in supporting national priorities Optimizes Governments securities issuance from domestic sources to fulfill Budget need and uses foreign debts as complimentary. Determines debt instrument by taken into account of market need in regard to market development and portfolio management. Issues Retail Bond for instrument diversification and financial inclusion. Optimizes foreign and domestic loan instrument to fulfill Budget need on capital expenditure. Conducts active portfolio management of Government securities in
- rder to promote market liquidity and stability.
Strengthens the function of Investor Relations Unit. Revenue and tax policy Financing and debt management policy Expenditure policy Monetary policy mix Bold and pre-emptive policy through regulation of BI Policy Rate, responsively adjusting to current macroeconomic condition. Exchange rate flexibility to facilitate external adjustments. Financial market deepening and capital flows management. Macroprudential and supervisory actions. Policy coordination with the government and financial stability forum. Central bank cooperations, including second line of defences. 7 Improvement of tax revenue administration. Improvement of regulations related to tax revenues, especially
income tax, VAT, and VAT – Luxury Goods.
Increase law enforcement conducted through intensification and
improved examination of the taxpayer and certain business sectors.
Extending additional new tax subject and VAT Activities related to
‘Build Your Own’.
Optimization of customs and excise policy implementation as it has
been presented in the State Budget 2015.
Optimization of oil & gas lifting and cost recovery, as well as the
improvement of the system and administration of non-tax state revenues. Increasing infrastructure spending to support growing economy. Reduction of poverty through conditional cash transfers. Increase the effectiveness of targeted subsidies. Support the accelerated achievement of minimum essential force in national defense Support the management of natural resources in improving food, water, and energy security. Expanding access and quality of education. Improve the implementation quality of the National Social Security System in terms of health and employment. Minimizing the impact of uncertainty through the support of fiscal risk reserves.
Improved International Perception and Rising Investment
8
Mar-99 Dec-99 Sep-00 Jun-01 Mar-02 Dec-02 Aug-03 May-04 Feb-05 Nov-05 Aug-06 May-07 Jan-08 Oct-08 Jul-09 Apr-10 Jan-11 Oct-11 Jul-12 Mar-13 Dec-13
Fitch
Mar-99 Dec-99 Sep-00 Jun-01 Mar-02 Dec-02 Aug-03 May-04 Feb-05 Nov-05 Aug-06 May-07 Jan-08 Oct-08 Jul-09 Apr-10 Jan-11 Oct-11 Jul-12 Mar-13 Dec-13
S&P
Mar-99 Dec-99 Sep-00 Jun-01 Mar-02 Dec-02 Aug-03 May-04 Feb-05 Nov-05 Aug-06 May-07 Jan-08 Oct-08 Jul-09 Apr-10 Jan-11 Oct-11 Jul-12 Mar-13 Dec-13
Moody's
Moody’s
Dec 2011 (affirmed Nov 2014) “The authorities' explicit and consistent preference for stability over economic growth since the "taper tantrum“ related market pressures in the summer of 2013 has strengthened their macro-economic policy track record. Real GDP growth continues to be high compared with peers. Fitch expects real GDP growth to bottom out at 5.1% in 2014, before gradually picking up to 5.4% in 2015 and 5.9% in 2016. This compares favorably with the 'BBB' category median of 3.0%. Moreover, GDP growth is much less volatile in Indonesia compared with peers.” Jan 2012 (affirmed Dec 2013) “Indonesia's rating is based on the country's resilient growth, low debt burden, favorable maturity profile, and high debt affordability. Indonesia has demonstrated resilience to large external shocks [with] sustainably high trend growth over the medium term. Prudent fiscal management has contained budget deficits and steadily reduced the government's debt burden over the past decade.” 28 April 2014 “The sovereign credit ratings reflect the economy's low per capita income, a relatively weak policy environment, and rising external leverage from a moderate level. These rating constraints are weighed against the country's well-entrenched cautious fiscal management and resultant modest general government debt and interest burden, which make for a favorable debt profile.”
BBB- / Stable Baa3 / Stable BB+ / Stable
Source: Moody’s, S&P, Fitch
Impro rovi ving g Intern rnation
- nal Percept
ption
- n:
: Acknowledg
- wledged
d by Rating g Agencies
S&P Fitch
Investment grade
Baa3 B3 B2 B1 Ba3 Ba2 Ba1 CCC+ CCC
Positive Outlook Negative Outlook Stable Outlook Positive Watch
B- B B+ BB- BB BB+ BBB- CCC+ CCC B- B B+ BB- BB BB+ BBB- Caa1 Caa2
Investment grade Investment grade
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Intern rnation
- nal inst
stitution
- ns
s outlook
- ok shows
s some
- ptimi
mism sm thou
- ugh
gh there is still downsi side de risk for r Indon
- nesi
sia in 2015 …
10 `
IMF Staff Visit (December 2014) World Bank IEQ (December 2014)
“Sound macroeconomic management has bolstered policy credibility and external resiliency in Indonesia.”
- GDP growth is projected to be
sustained at 5.1 percent in 2015
- Recovery in investment
demand
- More buoyant manufacture
exports
- Inflation is expected to return to
2015 target band (4.0 ±1 percent) by the end of next year.
- Current account deficit is
projected to decline to around 2¾ percent of GDP in 2015, supported by rising manufacture exports as well as a lower oil import bill. Risk
- Global headwinds from
weakening commodity prices and tightening financial conditions.
- Slowdown in emerging market
trading partners and surges in global financial market volatility.
“The World Bank projects a moderate near-term growth
- utlook for Indonesia of 5.1-
5.5 %”
- Fuel subsidies adjustment in
November 2014 suggests the new government’s commitment and willingness to address many of Indonesia’s long-standing structural priorities.
- The growth in economic activity
was moderate in the third quarter
- f 2014 due to weaker
investment and exports while private consumption has continued to support growth.
- The Rupiah has depreciated
further against the US dollar since July, but strengthened in real effective terms through October. Risk
- Slower projected global recovery
could weaken commodity price trajectory in the next few years.
- Several implementation
challenges faced by the new government, including a complex domestic political environment.
Asian Development Outlook (December 2014)
“GDP growth decelerated further to 5.0% in the third quarter of 2014”
- Private consumption remained
robust as expected, however gross fixed investment and net exports contributed less to GDP growth than in the second quarter.
- Investment recovery following
the elections has been slower than anticipated, and recovery in export markets remains uncertain.
- The effect of higher
administered prices on inflation is expected to be short-lived, and the rate should taper toward the end of 2015. Risk
- Downside risks to this outlook
center on further deterioration
- f export performance and
changes in market sentiment that cause capital outflows
OECD Economic Forecast (November 2014) “Growth is projected to remain moderate through 2015 before picking up somewhat in 2016…”
- …due largely to an
acceleration in investment and firming consumption.
- Economic growth has
continued to slow as investment and exports have softened, although household consumption is holding up.
- The current account has
widened again, and the rupiah has depreciated as a result.
- The recent second round of
cuts in fuel subsidies lift headline inflation, but core measures should remain well anchored, Risk
- Risks to the outlook are
mainly on the external side. 10
Preserved Macroeconomic Stability
11
Domest stic Economi mic Adjust stmen ment Continues
- First-quarter growth in Indonesia was moderate, with a rebound forecasted in the second quarter of 2015. Consumption was expected strong in
the first quarter, while investment and exports indicated a slow down.
- A surge in private consumption due to controlled inflation helped maintain a strong consumption.
- The Government expenditure, expected to accelerate growth, was anticipated to grow, albeit limited, in line with seasonal trends at the beginning
- f the year and will increase starting the second quarter of 2015.
- Exports continued to contract, despite early signs of improvement, in line with low commodity prices and sluggish global demand, particularly for
manufactured products.
- Investment growth was stifled but is projected to pick up in the second quarter of 2015 and thereafter as government capital spending on
infrastructure projects spikes. This is also in line with the monitoring of construction progress in various infrastructure projects.
- Looking ahead, there is a risk that the economy in 2015 may grow slower, nearing the lower end of the 5.4-5.8% range. This will be determined by
the vast and promptness of Government infrastructure projects realization, along with resilient consumption and gradually improving exports.
12
Economic Growth - Expenditure Side S e c t o r 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 I II III IV I II III IV Household Consumption 5.5 5.5 5.2 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.1 Gross Fixed Capital Formation 6.7 6.5 6.4 6.7 12.8 8.2 23.7 22.8 5.6 (-0.2) 12.4 Government Consumption 4.5 3.0 3.2 12.4 7.9 6.9 6.1 (-1.5) 1.3 2.8 2.0 Exports of Goods and Services 1.6 3.5 2.1 1.3 9.4 4.2 3.2 1.4 4.9 (-4.5) 1.0 Imports of Goods and Services 8.0 2.9 0.9 4.9 (-0.9) 1.9 5.0 0.4 0.3 3.2 2.2 GDP 6.0 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.1 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 Economic Growth - Supply Side S e c t o r 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 I II III IV I II III IV Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries 4.6 4.2 4.6 3.5 4.6 4.2 5.3 5.0 3.6 2.8 4.2 Mining and Quarrying 3.0 0.9 0.7 2.7 2.7 1.7 (-2.0) 1.1 0.8 2.2 0.5 Manufacturing 5.6 4.7 5.4 3.7 4.2 4.5 4.5 4.8 5.0 4.2 4.6 Electricity and Gas 10.1 9.8 4.7 2.4 4.4 5.2 3.3 6.5 6.0 6.5 5.6 Water Supply, Waste Management and Recycling 3.3 3.5 3.6 4.7 4.5 4.1 3.6 3.2 2.8 2.7 3.0 Construction 6.6 5.4 6.3 6.5 6.2 6.1 7.2 6.5 6.5 7.7 7.0 Wholesale and Retail Trade; Automotives 5.4 3.0 4.8 4.9 6.1 4.7 6.1 5.1 4.8 3.5 4.8 Transportation and Warehousing 7.1 7.4 8.9 8.3 8.9 8.4 8.4 8.5 8.0 7.1 8.0 Provision of Accommodation and Food & Beverage 6.6 7.0 7.0 6.9 6.3 6.8 6.5 6.4 5.9 4.9 5.9 Information and Communication 12.3 10.6 11.4 10.1 9.5 10.4 9.8 10.5 9.8 10.0 10.0 Financial Services and Insurance 9.5 13.2 11.0 9.2 3.5 9.1 3.2 4.9 1.5 10.2 4.9 Real Estate 7.4 8.9 7.7 5.4 4.3 6.5 4.7 4.9 5.1 5.3 5.0 Business Services 7.4 7.8 7.6 8.2 8.0 7.9 10.3 10.0 9.3 9.7 9.8 Administration, Defence, and Social Security 2.1 1.6 (-2.1) 6.4 3.8 2.4 2.9 (-2.5) 2.6 6.9 2.5 Education Services 8.2 11.7 3.2 8.6 9.4 8.2 5.2 5.4 7.3 7.1 6.3 Health Services and Social Activities 8.0 6.9 5.2 8.3 10.7 7.8 7.7 8.5 9.9 6.1 8.0 Other Services 5.8 5.6 5.6 6.2 8.2 6.4 8.4 9.5 9.5 8.4 8.9 GDP 6.0 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.1 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0
13
The largest economy in South-East Asia A large, culturally diverse, young and vibrant workforce Large consumer base with fast growing spending power Increase in infrastructure investment to improve overall efficiency
According to McKinsey, Indonesia is projected to be the 7th largest economy in the world by 2030
5.9% average real GDP growth over the period 2008-2013
Exports are 23.7% of GDP for the year of 2013, one of the lowest in Asia, creating low volatility in GDP
Foreign direct investment grew at an average rate of 21.1% from 2010-2013
4th most populous country in the world
66.6% of the population is of working age(1) and 68.5% were 39 years and younger as of 2012
Working population projected to grow at 0.7% compared to 0.5% CAGR for total population from 2012-2017
A high literacy rate of more than 90%
~7mn people are expected to join the middle class each year
Consumer expenditure has grown at a 12.3% CAGR from 2007-2012 and is expected to continue at a 9.1% rate from 2012-2017
Disposable incomes are projected to grow at 12.1% from 2012-2017
According to McKinsey, 135-170mn people will join the consuming class by 2030
Announced an expansion of fiscal spending on infrastructure by 19.2% CAGR from 2012 to 2014
Infrastructure investments are spread over Indonesia’s 6 economic corridors
Encompass various sectors such as seaports, roads, railways, airports, energy and many others
Government continues to align regional and national regulations to attract further private sector investors
(USD tn)
Nominal GDP – Strong Growth to Continue Middle Class Households Annual Budgeted Capital Spending
(IDR tn)
145.1 172.4 145.8 176.1 2012 2013 Realized 2014 Realized* 2015 Budget
21,980 39,340 60,740
2007 2012 2017E
(‘000)
Demographic Dividend – Young Population 0.43 0.88 1.14 2007 2012 2017E
Male Female
The fundamental long term growth drivers for Indonesia remain strong – equipped with abundant natural resources, a young and technically trained workforce and a large consumer base with a fast growing spending power
Condu ducive Environ vironme ment Underpi rpinning g Growt
- wth
Funda damentals
13
Globa
- bally
y Compe petitive ve and a Top Invest stme ment Desti tinatio tion
14
Source: Global Competitiveness Index 2014-2015, WEF
(1)
Countries with sovereign ratings in the Eaa1-Baa1 category and population larger than 40 million
(2)
Rank among 144 countries
Indonesia’s stage of development is categorized as efficiency-driven with a strong and well balanced performance across all 12 pillars of competitiveness
Source: The Economist – Asia Economic Outlook Survey 2015
Indonesia is in the Top 40 of the Global Competitiveness Index (“GCI”) JBIC: Amongst ASEAN countries, Indonesia is the most preferred place for business investment The Economist January 2015: Indonesia has taken over India in #2 Investment Destination in Asia since 2014
Source: Japan Bank for International Cooperation (“JBIC”) FY2014 Survey Report on Overseas Business Operations by Japanese Manufacturing Companies
(1)
Total number of companies that responded was 499 Rank
(1)
Country 2008
(2)
2014
(2)
Institutions Infrastructure Macro-economic Environtment Health and primary education Higher education and training Goods market efficiency Labor market efficiency Financial market development Technological readiness Market size Business sophistication Innovation Score Score Score Score Score Score Score Score Score Score Score Score 1 Spain 29 35 3.8 6.0 3.8 6.3 5.2 4.3 3.9 3.8 5.4 5.4 4.4 3.7 2 Thailand 34 31 3.7 4.6 6.0 5.8 4.6 4.7 4.2 4.6 3.9 5.1 4.4 3.3 3 Indonesia 55 34 4.1 4.4 5.5 5.7 4.5 4.5 3.8 4.5 3.6 5.3 4.5 3.9 4 Turkey 63 45 3.9 4.6 4.8 5.8 4.7 4.6 3.5 4.2 4.3 5.3 4.3 3.4 5 Italy 49 49 3.4 5.4 4.1 6.4 4.8 4.3 3.3 3.3 4.8 5.6 4.8 3.7 6 South Africa 45 56 4.5 4.3 4.5 4.0 4.0 4.7 3.8 5.4 3.9 4.9 4.5 3.6 7 Mexico 60 61 3.4 4.2 5.0 5.7 4.0 4.2 3.7 4.1 3.6 5.6 4.1 3.3 8 Brazil 64 57 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.7 4.9 3.8 3.8 4.3 4.2 5.7 4.3 3.3 9 Philippines 71 52 3.9 3.5 5.8 5.4 4.4 4.3 4.0 4.4 3.8 4.7 4.3 3.5 18.3 24.3 29.6 30.3 31.3 32.2 33.3 36.2 41.2 41.3 42.1 57.9 59.9 71 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Taiwan Japan Myanmar South Korea Hong Kong Australia Philippines Thailand Singapore Vietnam Malaysia India Indonesia China % of surveyed who plan to invest in each country
Rank 2013 2014 Country / Region
- No. of Companies(1)
Percentage Share (%) 2 1 India 229 45.9 1 2 Indonesia 228 45.7 4 3 China 218 43.7 3 4 Thailand 176 35.3 5 5 Vietnam 155 31.1 7 6 Mexico 101 20.2 6 7 Brazil 83 16.6 10 8 USA 66 13.2 9 9 Russia 60 12.0 8 10 Myanmar 55 11.0
Stron
- ng Invest
stment Underpi rpinned by Competiti titiveness ss and Stabi bility
Investment Realization Progress Q4-2014
- Investment Realization in Quarter I 2015 is Rp 124.6 T, an increase around 16.9% from the same period in previous year (Rp 106.6 T) and an
increase about 3.5% from Quarter IV 2014 (Rp 120.4 T). The value of investment is based on investment realization report by the DDI and FDI companies (Oil and Gas, Banking, Non-Bank Financial Institution, Insurance, Leasing and SMEs are excluded).
Source: BKPM Source: BKPM *) Investment Target 2015 Strategic Planning BKPM 2015 - 2019 **) Against target 2015
FDI by Sectors (Millions USD)
- Foreign Direct Investment realization in Quarter I 2015 based on sectors (five leading sectors) were: Mining (US$ 1.14 billion); Metal, Machinery,
and Electronic Industry (US$ 0.77 billion); Food Crops and Plantation (US$ 0.60 billion); Transport Equipment and Other Transport Industry (US$ 0.58 billion); and Food Industry (US$ 0.53 billion).
15 QI-2014 QII-2014 QIII-2014 QIV-2014 Q1-2015 2014 Target* Achieveme nt** DDI 34.6 38.2 41.6 41.7 42.5 175.8 24.2% FDI 72.0 78.0 78.3 78.7 82.1 343.7 23.9% TOTAL 106.6 116.2 119.9 120.4 124.6 519.5 24.0% 0.0 100.0 200.0 300.0 400.0 500.0 600.0
Trillion Rp 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 1,376 1,242 1,442 756 1,646 1,094 1,053 872 1,136 319 404 310 623 590 611 507 619 644 406 542 539 631 778 1,287 482 593 534 579 180 338 71 515 133 37 105 1,228 545 788 581 511 468 999 345 486 1,042 684 907 694 399 460 684 929 765 866 1,006 919 941 606 422 574 460 582 431 502 925 512 685 560 559 505 395 1,465 257 172 255 564 442 216 130 156 105 161 189 221 297 52 760 75 563 214 1,436 1,154 197 283 316 706 513 474 496 711 762 1,442 896
Other Tertiary Sector Transportation, Warehouse, and Telecommunication Trade and Reparation Electricity, Gas, and Water Supply Other Secondary Sector Transport Equip. and Other Transport Industry Metal, Machinery, and Electronic Industry Chemical and Pharmaceutical Industry Paper and Printing Industry Food Industry Other Primary Sector Mining
16
Java is Still the Main Investm stment Destinati ation
- n
Realized Foreign Direct Investment (Jan – Mar 2015) Realized Domestic Direct Investment (Jan – Mar 2015)
Source: BKPM Source: BKPM
DDI and FDI by Economic Corridor Q1 2015 (Million USD)
Source: BKPM
Based on Economic Corridor in Quarter I 2015 period, the highest realization of DDI and FDI was located in Java Corridor.
1658 5516 194 1619 513 351 Sumatera Java Bali & Nusa Tenggara Kalimantan Sulawesi Maluku & Papua 979 3,341 185 1,206 507 346 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 Sumatera Java Bali & Nusa Tenggara Kalimantan Sulawesi Maluku & Papua
Million USD
8,779 28,140 124 5,347 75 59 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 Sumatera Java Bali & Nusa Tenggara Kalimantan Sulawesi Maluku & Papua
Billion Rp
Inflation
- n Remains Under
r Control
- l
Disaggregation of Inflation
Source: BPS, Bank Indonesia
- After experiencing deflation during the first two months of the year, inflation of 0.17% (mtm) or 6.38% (yoy) was recorded in March 2015, stemming
primarily from administered prices. Nonetheless, March inflation was well controlled, backed by volatile food deflation and a drop in terms of core inflation.
- Administered price inflation was 0.83% (mtm) or 11.49% (yoy) in March, which is a turnaround from the deflation reported in the previous two
consecutive months. Rising prices of Premium and Pertamax petrol, diesel as well as 12kg LPG canisters in line with increasing international oil prices and rupiah depreciation prompted administered price inflation.
- Meanwhile, volatile foods continued to experience deflation of -0.83% (mtm) or 5.87% (yoy), which is less intense than during the previous month at -
1.69% (mtm). The largest contributor to deflation of volatile foods was chilli varieties, which are currently in the harvesting season at a number of production hubs, followed by chicken meat and eggs. Rice inflation also eased slightly on the preceding month as a number of production centers began to harvest with the peak harvest expected in April.
- On the other hand, core inflation dropped to 0.29% (mtm) or 5.04% (yoy) from 0.34% (mtm) as domestic demand moderated, inflation expectations
were well anchored and non-oil international commodity prices fell.
- Bank Indonesia considers the recent inflation trend congruous with accomplishing the inflation target of 4±1% in 2015. Bank Indonesia continues to
monitor an array of risk factors that could influence inflation, both volatile foods and administered prices, including the global oil price.
Consensus Forecast
Source: Consensus Forecast
17
Oil & Gas Trade Surpl rplus s Continued
- Indonesia’s trade surplus swelled to US$1.13 billion in March 2015 from US$0.66 billion previously, bolstered by a growing non-oil and gas surplus,
while the oil and gas account returned to a deficit.
- The non-oil and gas surplus stood at US$1.41 billion in the reporting period, up from US$0.63 billion, due to 12.5% (mtm) non-oil and gas export
growth to a total of US$11.72 billion, consisting of mineral fuels (23.6%, mtm), animal and vegetable fats and oils (9.0%, mtm), jewellery/gems (24.2%, mtm), wood and wood derivatives (33.3%, mtm) as well as electrical equipment/machinery (10.0%, mtm). Further gains were stifled, however, by 5.3% (mtm) growth of non-oil and gas imports to US$10.31 billion, comprised of mechanical equipment and machinery, electrical equipment and machinery, motor vehicles and auto components as well as ships and floating structures.
- The oil and gas account returned to a deficit of US$0.28 billion after registering a US$0.03 billion surplus in the previous period due to growing
imports of oil and gas that were triggered by an increase in the volume and price of imported crude oil and oil derivatives.
- Bank Indonesia is assured that the January-March 2015 trade surplus is congruous with the expected shrinking current account deficit in the first
quarter of 2015, compared to the fourth quarter of 2014.
- In terms of the financial account, despite growing uncertainty on global financial markets that pressured foreign capital inflows, cumulative foreign
portfolio investment to Indonesia reached US$3.5 billion by March 2015.
Trade Balance March 2015 Balance of Payment Q4-2014 18
Continued Pressure on Emerging Market’s Currency
- The rupiah depreciated against the USD, mainly due to continued strengthening of USD against all world's currencies. However, the pressure on Rupiah eased and
leads to appreciation since mid-March following FOMC's post-meeting dovish statement.
- In March 2015, rupiah on average weakened by 2.37% (mtm) to a level of Rp13,066 per USD. The rupiah depreciated by 1.14% (point to point), to a level of
Rp13,074 per US dollar.
- Bank Indonesia continues to beef up measures to keep the rupiah stable, including market interventions as well as purchasing government bonds in the secondary
- market. Going forward, Bank Indonesia will continue to consistently keep the stability of the rupiah at the exchange rate that is in line with its fundamental.
Movement of Rupiah International Reserves
19
- Indonesia’s official reserve asset position as of end March 2015 stood at US$111.6
billion, lower than the end of February 2015 level which registered at US$115.5 billion.
- The decrease in official asset was mainly influenced by the Government external debt
payments and in order to stabilize rupiah exchange rate in accordance with the fundamental.
- Official reserve assets at the end of March 2015 can adequately cover 6.9 months of
imports or 6.6 months of imports and servicing of Government external debt repayment, well above the international standards of reserves adequacy at 3 months
- f imports.
Monetary y Policy y Stance
BI Rate
Source: Bank Indonesia
- Bank Indonesia Board meeting on April 14, 2015 has decided to hold the BI Rate at 7.50%, setting the Deposit Facility rate at 5.50% and Lending
Facility rate at 8.00%. This decision is in line with the ongoing efforts to keep inflation within the target of 4±1% for 2015 and 2016, and to control current account deficit towards a healthier level at 2.5-3% of GDP in the medium term.
- Bank Indonesia will remain vigilant of domestic and external risks; while consistently strengthen the monetary and macroprudential policy mix, which
includes stabilizing the rupiah to maintain macroeconomic and financial system stability.
- Coordination with the Government will also be strengthened to control inflation and the current account deficit as well as to accelerate structural
reforms.
- To this end, Bank Indonesia supports government-led measures to reinforce macroeconomic stability by continuing a variety of structural reforms,
including efforts to improve the current account position and expedite various infrastructure projects to stimulate sustainable growth.
20
6.50 6.75 6.50 6.00 5.75 6.00 6.50 7.00 7.25 7.50 7.75 7.50
5.00 5.50 6.00 6.50 7.00 7.50 8.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
(%)
Solid d Financial System m Stabi bility
- The banking industry remained resilient, with credit, liquidity and market
risks well mitigated and the support of a sound capital base.
- The Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) in February 2015 was 21.3%, well beyond
the 8% minimum, while non-performing loans (NPL) remain low and stable at 2.0%.
- Credit growth was recorded at 12.2% (yoy), increasing from 11.5% (yoy) the
previous month. Moreover, liquidity in the banking sector was more than sufficient, as reflected by an acceleration in deposit growth to 15.2% (yoy), from 14.2% (yoy) the previous month. Bank Indonesia believes that credit growth will increase from second quarter of 2015 and forth, in line with the increase in economic activities and adequate banking liquidity. Overall, deposit and credit growth in 2015 is expected to increase, reaching the ranges of 14-16% and 15-17% respectively.
- On the other hand, capital market performance improved, as the IDX
Composite continues to rally.
CAR Comfortably High, NPL Favorably Low Slowdown in Loan Growth Stock Market Strengthened 21
Prudent Fiscal Management
22
Improvin ing Budget Structure e
Manageable Fiscal Deficit Quality of Spending Sustainable Revenue Source
- Develop effective taxation policy and
tax administration
- Focus not only on the corporate but
also on personal income tax & improve value added tax system.
- Provide fiscal incentive for investment
with better targeted system
- Change subsidy paradigm
Shift from price (commodity) subsidy to targeted subsidy system
- Reallocate budget to productive spending,
such as infrastructure and direct assistance.
- Prioritize basic infrastructure to support
food security, agriculture and fisheries sectors as well as job creation.
- Provide a greater room on our fiscal to anticipate the uncertainty
coming from global economic development.
- Encourage private
sector to help infrastructure development, among
- ther through PPP
scheme
23
Spendi ding g Re-Al Allocation
- n T
- Achieve
ve Greater r Productiv tivity
Infrastructure Plan 2015-2019
New Sea Ports - 24 Sea Port Development - 59 Pioneer Cargo Ships New Airports - 15 Airport Infrastructure Development Airplanes - 20 Rail lines - 2,159 km Intra City Rail Lines - 1,099 km New Roads - 2,650 km Highway - 1,000 km Road Maintainance - 46,770 km Bus Corridors - 2
Source: Ministry of Finance
- Kartu Indonesia Pintar
(Indonesian Smart Card) - Education subsidies for the poor and families near the poverty threshold
- Kartu Keluarga Sejahtera
Bi-monthly credits for eligible families to offset increasing costs of living
- Kartu Indonesia Sehat
(Indonesian Health Card) - Free health insurance and medical benefits
Reduction of poverty through conditional cash transfers Ahead of the fuel subsidy hike, a systemic change in the provision of subsidies to the communities in need was implemented.
IDR Tn % Total Spending
1 2 3
91.3 84 114.2 145.5 155.9 206.6 9.7 8.3 8.8 9.8 9.0 11.0 6 8 10 12 50 100 150 200 250 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Infrastructure Spending (LHS) % Total Spending (RHS)
Source: Bappenas
24
Genera ral Stra rate tegy gy for Debt Financing g 2015
- 1. Optimizes Governments securities (SBN) issuance from domestic sources to fulfill Budget
need and uses foreign debts as complimentary;
- 2. Determines debt instrument by taken into account of market need in regard to market
development and portfolio management;
- 3. Issues Retail Bond for instrument diversification and financial inclusion;
- 4. Optimizes foreign and domestic loan instrument to fulfill Budget need on capital expenditure;
- 5. Conducts active portfolio management of Government securities through, among others, debt
buyback and debt switch, in order to promote market liquidity and stability;
- 6. Strengthens the function of Investor Relations Unit, among others, through the proactive
dissemination of information, rapid and effective responses, and effective communication with investors and other stakeholders.
25
Economic growth
Lower global growth outlook leads to slower domestic
growth, mainly due to exports and capital flows
Impact of government’s effort in easing Current
Account pressure and maintaining stability
Inflation rate in a downward trend
Fiscal, Monetary, and Real Sector policies coordination
among Government and Central Bank to reduce inflationary pressures and maintain a conducive macroeconomic condition
The increase of agriculture productivity will allow food
supply sufficiency and avoid commodity and food price fluctuations
Exchange rate and interest rate revised according to the global and domestic financial market
Liquidity tightening and tapering policy in US Capital outflow from EM to US economy Competition and liquidity tightening resulted in the
hike in interest rates, even within domestic Indonesian economy
Oil and gas lifting revised down due to technical issues and production delays in Cepu and other new oil blocks
Macroeconomic Assumptions 2014 2014 Revised Budget 2015 Budget 2015 Revised Budget Growth (%) 6.0 5.5
5.8 5.8
Inflation (%) 5.5 5.3
4.4 5.0
Exchange Rate (IDR/US$) 10,500 11,600
11,900 12,200
Interest Rate (3 month Govt Bond, %) 5.5 6.0
6.0 6.2
ICP (US$/barrel) 105.0 105.0
105.0 70.0
Oil and Gas Lifting
- a. Oil lifting (Mil bbl/day)
0.870 0.818
0.900 0.849
- b. Gas lifting (Mil bbl/day
eopd) 1.240 1.224
1.248 1.177
Macroe
- econ
- nom
- mic Assu
sumpt ption
- ns
s Require Adjust stme ments s to Reflect Recent Econom
- mic Developm
- pments
26
Budget Assumptions
26
Govern rnme ment t Budget t FY 2015
In billion IDR
- Financing sources Revised Budget
2015 come from debt financing (85.78% from Government Securities, 9.62% from Loan) and the rest 4.61% from non debt financing.
- In the Revised Budget 2015 (APBN-
P 2015), deficit is narrowing from 2.21% to 1.91% of GDP
- To maintain resilience and fiscal
sustainability
- Despite lower budget deficit,
net debt in 2015 is higher
- Government injects equity to SOE’s
to increase their capacity to support the achievement of the national priority agenda
- Stand-by loans are in place to
anticipate adverse situations.
Govern rnme ment Securi rities s Financing g (Gross)
- ss) 2015
28
Domestic: Auction:
conventional securities: 23 x Islamic securities: 22 x
Non-Auction:
retail bonds: ORI + Sukuk Retail.
International Bonds:
Issuance of International Bonds as
complement to avoid crowding out in domestic market and provide benchmark for corporate issuance, consist of USD, YEN or EURO global bonds
Maximum issuance international bond
22.6% from target gross
Issuance targets for GDS, Sukuk and ATM target: – GDS (SUN): 79.9% – Sukuk: 20.1% – ATM for auctions: 8.2 year Front Loading strategy:
- in the first semester is
targeted at 63.4%.
- for domestic issuance is also
targeted at first semester at 59.2%
FR 69 – 5 Y FR 70 – 10 Y FR 71 – 15 Y FR 68 – 20 Y
Benchmark Series for 2014 & 2015
Improved Government Debt Position
29
30
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 Mar'08 Jul'08 Nop'08 Mar'09 Jul'09 Nop'09 Mar'10 Jul'10 Nop'10 Mar'11 Jul'11 Nop'11 Mar'12 Jul'12 Nop'12 Mar'13 Jul'13 Nop'13 Mar'14 Jul'14 Nop'14 Mar'15
5Y 10Y 15Y 20Y
7.24 (5Y), 7.47 (10Y), 7.67 (15Y), 7.75 (20Y)
Global Financial Crisis
Eurozone sovereign debt crisis
Seconda dary Market Perform
- rmance of Centra
ral Govern rnmen ment Bonds
Yield of Benchmark Series
[In Percentage]
As of March 31, 2015
Govern rnme ment Securi rities s Realization
- n
*Adjusted by changes in Cash Management & Debt Switch
Budget 2015* Revised Budget 2015*
Realization (ao March 31, 2015)* % Realization to Revised Budget 2015
Government Securities Net 277.049.800 297.698.382 154.393.148 51,86% Government Securities Maturing in 2015 153.612.324 154.112.324 25.758.887 16,71%
- Buyback
3.000.000 3.000.000
- 0,00%
Issuance Need 2015* 430.662.124 451.810.706 180.152.035 39,87% Government Debt Securities (GDS) 137.422.000 Domestic GDS 87.050.000
- Coupon GDS
62.050.000
- Conventional T-Bills
22.000.000
- Private Placement
3.000.000
- Retail Bonds
- International Bonds
50.372.000
- USD GMTN
50.372.000
- Euro GMTN
- Samurai Bonds
- Government Islamic Debt Securities
42.730.035 Domestic Government Islamic Debt Securities 42.730.035
- IFR/PBS/T-Bills Sukuk (Islamic Fixed Rated
Bond/Project Based Sukuk) 18.065.000
- Retail Sukuk
21.965.035
- Private Placement
2.700.000 Global Sukuk
Outst standi ding of T
- tal Central Govern
rnme ment Debt
32 Source: Ministry of Finance
[in percentage]
[USD billion]
68,91 68,59 63,09 62,02 62,25 66,69 65,02 68,65 68,51 63,76 58,28 54,18 53,23
76,64 71,29 70,51 82,34 85,26 82,78 104,20 118,39 130,97 140,75 136,27 155,23 160,45
- 50
100 150 200 250
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 March, 2015
Loan Government Securities
Year 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
March, 2015
Loan 47% 49% 47% 43% 42% 45% 38% 37% 37% 31% 30% 26% 25% Government Securities 53% 51% 53% 57% 58% 55% 62% 63% 63% 69% 70% 74% 75%
117 124 108 125 154 101 100 122 101 191 69 22 48 53 82 29 31 47 53 89 27 10 43 49 8 13 6 56 64 60 59 59 55 48 42 38 32 28 24 21 17 15 14 13 13 12 8 5 3 2 1 1 1 183 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041-2060
Gov't Sec Loan
Maturi rity y Profile Centra ral Govern rnment Debt as of End of March 2015
33 104 113 89 88 105 69 53 76 69 145 43 22 48 53 82 29 31 47 53 89 6 10 23 23 8 13 81 69 75 79 96 108 87 95 88 70 78 54 24 21 17 15 14 13 13 12 8 26 3 22 27 1 1 108 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041-2060
Foreign Domestic
43.8% 56.2%
Foreign Domestic Maturity Profile of Central Government by Instruments (in trillion IDR) Maturity Profile of Central Government by Currencies (in trillion IDR)
Holders s of Tradabl ble Central Govern rnme ment Securi rities
34
Holders of Tradable Gov’t Domestic Debt Securities Foreign Ownership of Gov’t Domestic Debt Securities by Tenor
Source: Ministry of Finance
More Balance Ownership In Terms Of Holders And Tenors
10% 12% 8% 5% 6% 7% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 8% 3% 5% 5% 4% 5% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 18% 17% 16% 13% 11% 15% 15% 15% 16% 15% 15% 15% 16% 15% 14% 14% 13% 21% 25% 28% 32% 38% 34% 33% 33% 33% 34% 34% 34% 33% 34% 34% 35% 35% 46% 38% 45% 44% 41% 40% 41% 41% 42% 43% 42% 43% 42% 43% 43% 44% 44%
30,53% 30,80% 32,98%32,54% 33,64% 34,59%35,72%35,66%36,33% 36,81% 37,30% 37,80% 39,41% 38,13% 40,25% 40,03% 38,61%
- 15,00%
5,00% 25,00% 45,00%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13Mar-14Apr-14May-14June 14 July 14 Aug 14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15Mar-15
>10 >5-10 >2-5 >1-2 0-1 % Foreign Ownership to Total (RHS) 33,88% 36,63% 36,53% 33,70% 31,04% 29,43% 26,75% 35,59% 32,58% 30,49% 33,76% 30,83% 30,53% 34,63% 30,53% 30,80% 32,98% 32,54% 38,13% 40,03% 38,61%
Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Feb-15 Mar-15
Foreign Holders Domestic Non-Banks Domestic Banks
Profile of Centra ral Govern rnmen ment Debt Securi rities
35 Source: Ministry of Finance
GOVERNMENT DEBT SECURITIES (GDS) Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15
- 1. Domestic Tradable GDS
IDR 757.231 IDR 908.078 IDR 1.099.257 IDR 1.125.557 IDR 1.147.107 IDR 1.160.257
- a. Zero Coupon
IDR 24.083 IDR 34.050 IDR 39.950 IDR 41.950 IDR 40.500 IDR 42.900
- 1. Government Treasury Bills
IDR 22.820 IDR 34.050 IDR 39.950 IDR 41.950 IDR 40.500 IDR 42.900
- 2. Zero Coupon Bond
IDR 1.263 IDR - IDR - IDR - IDR - IDR -
- b. Government Domestic Bonds
IDR 733.148 IDR 874.028 IDR 1.059.307 IDR 1.083.607 IDR 1.106.607 IDR 1.117.357
- 1. Fixed Rate *) +)
IDR 610.393 IDR 751.273 IDR 945.964 IDR 970.264 IDR 993.264 IDR 1.004.014
- 2. Variable Rate *)
IDR 122.755 IDR 122.755 IDR 113.344 IDR 113.344 IDR 113.344 IDR 113.344
- 2. Promissory Notes to Bank Indonesia **) ***)
IDR 240.144 IDR 234.870 IDR 229.054 IDR 227.942 IDR 227.550 IDR 227.550
- 3. SPNNT
IDR - IDR - IDR - IDR - 4 Retail Saving Bonds IDR 2.391 IDR 2.391 IDR 2.391 IDR 2.391 5 Total GDS (1+2+3+4) IDR 997.376 IDR 1.142.948 IDR 1.330.702 IDR 1.355.890 IDR 1.377.048 IDR 1.390.198
- 5. Total Government International Bonds *)
USD 22.950 USD 27.140 USD 29.190 USD 33.190 USD 33.190 USD 33.190 155.000 ¥ 155.000 ¥ 155.000 ¥ 155.000 ¥ 155.000 ¥ 155.000 ¥ 1.000 € 1.000 € 1.000 € 1.000 €
- 6. TOTAL GOV'T DEBT SECURITIES (3+(4*Exchange Rate Assumption))
IDR 997.376 IDR 1.142.948 IDR 1.361.994 IDR 1.386.780 IDR 1.835.099 IDR 1.855.508 GOVERNMENT ISLAMIC DEBT SECURITIES (GIDS)
- a. Domestic Tradable GIDS
IDR 63.035 IDR 87.174 IDR 110.704 IDR 118.894 IDR 120.999 IDR 120.999
- a. Fixed Rate *)++)
IDR 62.840 IDR 78.541 IDR 99.969 IDR 108.034 IDR 111.919 IDR 111.919
- b. Zero Coupon
IDR 195 IDR 8.633 IDR 10.735 IDR 10.860 IDR 9.080 IDR 9.080
- b. Domestic Non Tradable GIDS
IDR 35.783 IDR 31.533 IDR 33.197 IDR 33.197 IDR 33.197 IDR 33.197
- c. Government International Islamic Bonds
- 1. Fixed Rate *)
USD 2.650 USD 4.150 USD 5.000 USD 5.000 USD 5.000 USD 5.000
- 7. TOTAL GOV'T DEBT SECURITIES (6+(8*Exchange Rate Assumption))
IDR 88.660 IDR 137.758 IDR 172.904 IDR 182.019 IDR 185.314 IDR 186.419
- 8. TOTAL GOVERNMENT SECURITIES
IDR 1.121.819 IDR 1.312.239 IDR 1.568.095 IDR 1.601.996 IDR 2.053.609 IDR 2.075.124 Notes:
- Nominal in billion rupiah (domestic bonds), million USD & million JPY (international bonds)
- *) Tradable
- **) Non-Tradable
- +) Including ORI (IDR Billion))
IDR 34.153 IDR 43.882 IDR 54.098 IDR 54.098 IDR 54.098 IDR 54.098
- ++) Including Sukuk Ritel/SR (IDR Billion)
IDR 28.989 IDR 35.924 IDR 47.906 IDR 47.906 IDR 47.906 IDR 47.906
- Exchange Rate Assumption (IDR/USD1)
IDR 9.670 IDR 12.189 IDR 12.440 IDR 12.625 IDR 12.863 IDR 13.084
- Exchange Rate Assumption (IDR/JPY1)
IDR 111,97 IDR 116,17 IDR 104,25 IDR 106,99 IDR 107,84 IDR 108,95
- Exchange Rate Assumption (IDR/EUR1)
IDR 15.133 IDR 14.307 IDR 14.412 IDR 14.165
- Since October 2006, government and the Central Bank committed to replace interest payment of Promissory Notes to Bank Indonesia (SU-002 & SU-004) with new
bond (SU-007) and omitted indexation of SU-002 & SU-004
Debt Switch & Cash Buyback Progra ram
36 Debt Switch Program Buyback Program
[in billion IDR]
Auction Date Auction Frequency Source Bonds Tenor Series Offer Received Offer Awarded 2005 1 9 series 7,721 5,673 2006 12 7 up to 21 series 54,177 31,179 2007 9 12 up to 21 series 30,681 15,782 2008 2 21 up to 31 series 7,490 4,571 2009 6 24 up to 28 series 8,663 2,938 2010 6 11 up to 28 series 8,349 3,920 2011 4 22 up to 27 series 3,080 664 2012 4 10 up to 20 series 23,126 11,859 2013 5 7 up to 13 series 7,222 1,976 2014 4 9 up to 12 series 10,591 5,944 2015
- Total
161,100 84,506
Auctions Direct Transactions 2003 2
- 8,127
2004 1
- 1,962
2005 4
- 5,158
2007 2
- 2,859
2008 3
- 2,375
2009 1 1 8,528 2010 10 3 3,201 2011 2 8 3,500 2012
- 6
1,138 2013
- 5
1,551 2014
- 3
1,351 2015
- GRAND TOTAL
39,750 Frequencies Year Volume (IDR billion)
Maturi rity ty Profile of Trada dabl ble Central tral Govern rnme ment t Securi ritie ties s
as of the end of March, 2015
37 Source: Ministry of Finance
[IDR Trillion]
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 SUKUK USD
- 13,
19,
- 13,
- 19,
- SUKUK IDR
24, 23, 20, 30,
- 9,0
- 1,2
- 1,5
- 3,8
- 2,2
- 4,1
10,
- 4,0
- 9,9
- SUN EUR
- 14,
- SUN JPY
- 3,8
6,5
- 6,5
- SUN IDR
73, 102 78, 70, 115 69, 69, 82, 87, 154 52, 19, 41, 50, 74, 23, 27, 42, 47, 83, 20,
- 26,
41,
- 13,
41, 19, 38, 26,
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 trillion rupiah
Daily Transa saction
- n & Offsh
shor
- re Ownersh
ship
38
Average Daily transaction Govt’ Bonds Net Buyer (Seller) Non Resident
Source: Ministry of Finance
[Trillion IDR]
as of March h 31, , 2015
Average daily trading (IDR Trilion)
(1,49) (29,29) 1,69 (4,99) 8,06 13,11 (8,99) (2,27) 4,15 (4,37) (0,08) 10,13 (1,41) 7,83 9,35 19,52 0,68 2,68 8,44 (0,88) 17,97 4,22 (19,98) 2,81 (1,76) 10,13 23,98 6,08 (0,37) 4,82 16,49 15,77 16,10 20,15 6,43 14,67 15,95 13,17 12,49 21,34 (19,84) 39,48 6,84 (3,59)
0,00 0,20 0,40 0,60 0,80 1,00 1,20 (40,00) (30,00) (20,00) (10,00) 0,00 10,00 20,00 30,00 40,00 50,00
Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15
Capital Inflows
Ownersh ship p of IDR Trada dabl ble Central tral Govern rnment Securi rities
39
Source: Ministry of Finance
(IDR Trillion)