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Annual Energy Outlook 2016 Modeling updates in the transportation sector For AEO2016 Working Group December 15, 2015| Washington, DC By Trisha Hutchins, Melissa Lynes, John Maples, and Mark Schipper Office of Energy Consumption and Efficiency

SLIDE 1

U.S. Energy Information Administration

www.eia.gov Independent Statistics & Analysis

Annual Energy Outlook 2016

For AEO2016 Working Group December 15, 2015| Washington, DC By Trisha Hutchins, Melissa Lynes, John Maples, and Mark Schipper Office of Energy Consumption and Efficiency Analysis

Modeling updates in the transportation sector

SLIDE 2

AEO2016 Transportation Demand Model Updates

Domestic and international marine - International Convention for the

Prevention of Pollution from Ships (MARPOL)

On-road vehicles

– Light duty vehicles (LDV) – Heavy duty vehicles (HDV)

Side cases

AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Washington, D.C., December 15, 2015 Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate 2

SLIDE 3

MARPOL impacts fuel and technology choice

MARPOL emission controls and fuel standards

– Reflect enacted standards for domestic and international vessels operating in Emission Control Areas (ECA) – ECAs extends up to 200 nautical miles from coasts of the United States (March 26, 2010) – Reflect ship efficiency improvements, shipping demand changes, and fuel price fluctuations

AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Washington, D.C., December 15, 2015 Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate 3

SLIDE 4

ECA fuel standard or equivalent

exhaust gas cleaning devices

– Sulphur at 10,000 ppm in 2010 – Sulphur at 1,000 ppm in 2015

Global fuel standard or equivalent

exhaust gas cleaning devices

– Sulphur at 35,000 ppm in 2012 – Sulphur at 5,000 ppm in 2020 (subject to change based on a 2018 fuel study)

Source: EIA, Marine Fuel Choice for Ocean Going Vessels within Emission Control Areas, http://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/transportation/marinefuel/

MARPOL impacts fuel and technology choice

4 AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Washington, D.C., December 15, 2015 Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate

SLIDE 5

Light duty vehicle updates impact fuel usage and regional analysis

Update historical new light-duty vehicle attribute and fuel economy data

through 2013

Update light-duty vehicle stock, sales and travel demand by Census division

through 2014

ZEV mandates

– Update model to reflect current ZEV mandates and credits

AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Washington, D.C., December 15, 2015 Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate 5

SLIDE 6

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 NHTSA Total Fleet NHTSA Passenger Cars NHTSA Light Trucks AEO2015 Total Fleet AEO2015 Passenger Car AEO2015 Light Truck

Light-duty vehicle CAFE compliance

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Summary of Fuel Economy Performance, 2014 6 AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Washington, D.C., December 15, 2015 Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate

miles per gallon

SLIDE 7

Heavy duty vehicle updates impact fuel usage and regional analysis

Update heavy-duty vehicle stock, sales and travel demand by Census

division through 2014

Heavy duty vehicle model updates

– New technologies – Expand and realign compliance classifications from 13 to 20 (including trailers) – Restructure industrial output categories

Side case

– Phase 2 of the MDV/HDV GHG and fuel efficiency standards

Still trying to determine how to handle trailers in model
Will be reaching out to the EPA to discuss drive cycle changes

AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Washington, D.C., December 15, 2015 Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate 7

SLIDE 8

Percent diesel heavy duty vehicles on road by Census division

Source: 2014 Polk data 8 AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Washington, D.C., December 15, 2015 Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 West South Central East North Central South Atlantic Pacific West North Central Mountain Middle Atlantic East South Central New England

percent heavy-duty vehicles by vintage

SLIDE 9

Percent gasoline heavy duty vehicles on road by Census division

Source: 2014 Polk data 9 AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Washington, D.C., December 15, 2015 Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 Mountain West South Central South Atlantic East North Central Middle Atlantic Pacific West North Central New England East South Central

percent heavy-duty vehicles by vintage

SLIDE 10

Comments/discussion

Pressing suggestions for AEO2016
Comments or suggestions for AEO2017

– Contact Transportation Team if interested in taking part in topical Working Group meetings next year

AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Washington, D.C., December 15, 2015 Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate 10

SLIDE 11

Discussion/questions

Trisha Hutchins | phone: 202-586-1029 | email: patricia.hutchins@eia.gov Melissa Lynes | phone: 202-586-5192 | email: melissa.lynes@eia.gov John Maples | phone: 202-586-1757 | email: john.maples@eia.gov Mark Schipper | phone: 202-586-1136 | email: mark.schipper@eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo

AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Washington, D.C., December 15, 2015 Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate 11