Annual Economics Conference: Investment and Investment Finance - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Sep 19, 2023 143 likes •218 views

Annual Economics Conference: Investment and Investment Finance Policy Address Klaas Knot Business, residential and public investment in the euro area 2008Q1=100 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

SLIDE 1

Annual Economics Conference: Investment and Investment Finance Policy Address

Klaas Knot

SLIDE 2

Klaas Knot 2

Source: ECB

60 70 80 90 100 110 120 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Public investment Housing investment Private sector non-residental investment Total

Business, residential and public investment in the euro area

2008Q1=100

SLIDE 3

Klaas Knot 3

Source: ECB

11.0 11.5 12.0 12.5 13.0 13.5 14.0 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 Total investment, Real (lhs) Private-sector non-residential Investment, Real (rhs) average (2003Q1-2017Q2)

Business investment ratio in the euro area

Ratio to GDP; investment and GDP are both in real terms

SLIDE 4

*Average over various uncertainty indices (consensus, policy, macro, financial, Jurado et al.)

Source: DNB

5 10 15 20 2007 2010 2013 2016 Foreign demand Uncertainty* Real lending rate Real consumption Real gross operating surplus Real business investment Real stock prices

Historical shock decomposition of real business investment growth

Percentage points

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Klaas Knot 5

Source: BLS, own calculations

200 400 600 800 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Cummulative share of banks changing acceptance criteria (%) Cumulative changes in credit standards SMEs Cumulative changes credit standards large firms

Cumulative changes in credit standards (by MFIs in NL)

Data normalized (2003 = 0)

tightening easing

SLIDE 6

Radical transition towards a CO2-neutral economy is necessary

CO2-emissions Gt CO2 per annum No policies Current policies 2 degrees scenario

Source: PBL & ECN