Anne Arundel County Affordable Housing Needs Assessment May 2019 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Nicole Mathison Senior Analyst Real Property Research Group, Inc

Anne Arundel County Affordable Housing Needs Assessment

May 2019

Scope of the Rental Survey & Analysis

– Evaluation of Economic & Demographic Trends – Survey of Affordable Multifamily Rental Stock – Affordable Supply & Demand Analysis – Affordability & Penetration Analysis

Employment Growth in Anne Arundel County

7,201 986

• 7,464

105 3,583 10,326 11,558 3,397 5,025 7,254 3,335 4,856

• 10.0%
• 8.0%
• 6.0%
• 4.0%
• 2.0%

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0%

• 10,000
• 5,000

5,000 10,000 15,000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q3

Change in At Place Employment

Annual Change in Anne Arundel County At Place Employment United States Annual Employment Growth Rate Anne Arundel County Annual Employment Growth Rate Annual Change in At Place % Annual Growth

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages

Employment by Sector

17.3% 0.1% 6.5% 4.6% 20.6% 0.8% 4.0% 16.6% 12.4% 13.4% 3.8% 15.1% 1.3% 4.8% 8.7% 18.7% 1.9% 5.6% 14.2% 15.5% 11.0% 3.1% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% Government Nat Resources-… Construction Manufacturing Trade-Trans-Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional-Business Education Health Leisure-Hospitality Other

Total Employment by Sector 2018 Q3

United States Anne Arundel County

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages

Annual Wages

$62,899 $56,865 $60,742 $66,835 $46,152 $105,250 $92,960 $72,519 $49,199 $23,182 $37,319 $65,833 $54,685 $63,502 $115,433 $47,095 $75,357 $66,700 $83,676 $51,612 $22,562 $43,334 $0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000 $120,000 $140,000 Government Natural Resources-Mining Construction Manufacturing Trade-Trans-Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional-Business Education-Health Leisure-Hospitality Other

Average Annual Pay by Sector 2017

Anne Arundel County United States

Anne Arundel County Submarkets

Household Growth

Households 2000 Households 2010 Households 2019 Households 2024 Households Household Change 2000-2010 Total Change 4,481 1,427 10,922 2,659 20,708 Annual Change # / % 448 0.8% 143 0.4% 1,092 2.2% 266 0.7% 2,071 1.1% Household Change 2010-2019 Total Change 1,094 2,721 5,063 1,619 10,857 Annual Change # / % 122 0.2% 302 0.8% 563 1.0% 180 0.4% 1,206 0.6% Household Change 2019-2024 Total Change 1,283 1,149 1,861 1,343 6,008 Annual Change # / % 257 0.5% 230 0.6% 372 0.6% 269 0.6% 1,202 0.6%

Sources:Baltimore Metropolitan Council 7/18; RPRG, Inc. NOTE: Annual % Change is an average compounded rate.

55,298 34,632 55,545 42,098 199,378 50,817 33,205 44,623 178,670 210,235 216,243 39,439 Annapolis Odenton-Crofton Anne Arundel County Severna Park- Pasadena Glen Burnie- Linthicum 43,717 45,060 37,353 57,675 38,502 62,468 56,392 60,608

0.8% 0.4% 2.2% 0.7% 1.1% 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.8% 1.0% 0.4% 0.6%

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% Annapolis Glen Burnie-Linthicum Odenton-Crofton Severna Park-Pasadena Anne Arundel County

Annual Household % Change

2000 to 2010 2010 to 2019 2019 to 2024

Annual Household Growth by Submarket

448 143 1,092 266 257 230 372 269

200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 Annapolis Glen Burnie-Linthicum Odenton-Crofton Severna Park-Pasadena

Annual Household Change

2000 to 2010 2010 to 2019 2019 to 2024

Renters by Submarket

Household Tenure (2019) Total Households 56,392 37,353 60,608 43,717 210,235 % Renters 15,459 27.4% 11,405 30.5% 18,398 30.4% 9,444 21.6% 56,369 26.8% % Owners 40,933 72.6% 25,948 69.5% 42,210 69.6% 34,273 78.4% 153,866 73.2% Senior Households 62+ 21,464 37,353 15,258 14,033 88,108 % Renters 3,830 17.8% 11,405 30.5% 2,273 14.9% 1,786 12.7% 19,294 15.9% % Owners 17,634 82.2% 25,948 69.5% 12,985 85.1% 12,247 87.3% 68,814 84.1%

Sources: Esri; BMC; RPRG, Inc.

Odenton- Crofton Severna Park- Pasadena Annapolis Glen Burnie- Linthicum Anne Arundel County

27.4% 30.5% 30.4% 21.6% 26.8%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Annapolis Glen Burnie-Linthicum Odenton-Crofton Severna Park-Pasadena Anne Arundel County

2019 Renters as % of All Households

2019 Household Income

$107,285 $72,939 $107,408 $103,409 $98,900 $77,720 $57,533 $86,994 $71,005 $74,525 $0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000 $120,000

Annapolis Glen Burnie-Linthicum Odenton-Crofton Severna Park-Pasadena Anne Arundel County

2019 Median Household Income

All Households Renter Households

Household Income Distribution

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Annapolis Glen Burnie-Linthicum Odenton-Crofton Severna Park-Pasadena Anne Arundel County

2019 Renter Household Income Distribution

% < $25K % $25 - $50K % $50 - $100K % $100K >

dummy

Rent Cost Burden

Multifamily Survey

103 Communities – 21,316 Units

– 9% Rent-restricted units (LIHTC, MPDU) in 16 communities (1,902 units) – 17% Deeply subsidized units (e.g. public housing, PBV) in 28 communities (3,558 units)

Submarket Vacancy Rate Annapolis 2,002 11.3% 1.9% Glen Burnie-Linthicum 5,440 30.8% 2.2% Odenton-Crofton 5,309 30.0% 3.2% Severna Park-Pasadena 4,925 27.9% 2.7% Anne Arundel County 17,676 100% 2.6% Surveyed Rental Units (excluding those with deep subsidies)

Net Demand

• Demand

– Growth – Replacement Housing – Occupancy Levels in Rental Market

• Supply

– Pipeline

Affordable Rental Pipeline

Community Location Developer Status Income Restricted Units

Annapolis Towne Courts (TC) 2010 West St, Annapolis PIRHL/Housing Initiative Partnership Nine percent tax credits awarded in 2017 for townhome community. 42 Eastport (MPDU only) 915 Chesapeake Ave, Annapolis Mixed use project would include 98 apartments, of which 6 would be MPDUs. 6 Parole Place (MPDU only) 103 Solomon's Island Rd, Annapolis Mixed use project would include 90 apartments, of which 6 would be MPDUs. 6

subtotal 54

Glen Burnie-Linthicum None

subtotal

Odenton-Crofton Brock Bridge Landing (TC) 7902 Brock Bridge Rd, Jessup Woda Cooper/Interfaith Housing Alliance Nine percent tax credits awarded in 2018. 38 Meade Village (TC) 1710 Meade Village Circle, Severn Housing Commission

• f Anne Arundel

County Nine percent tax credits awarded in 2017. Project includes rehab of existing units and addition of 24 new units. 24

subtotal 62

Severna Park-Pasadena None

subtotal Total Pipeline of Affordable Units 116

(TC) Tax Credit

(MPDU) Moderately Priced Dwelling Units Source: Compiled by Real Property Research Group in May 2019 from various sources, including interviews with developers, planners,

• fficial public sector websites, developers' websites, journal articles, site visit observations, and past RPRG work.

Annapolis Glen Burnie-Linthicum Odenton-Crofton Severna Park-Pasadena

339 268 369 311 1,284 51 59 110

200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400

Annapolis Glen Burnie-Linthicum Odenton-Crofton Severna Park-Pasadena Anne Arundel County

Short-term Balance of Supply and Demand for Rental Units

2019 to 2022

Total Rental Demand Planned Additions to Supply

Short-Term Balance of Supply and Demand

Unmet Demand of 1,174 Units

Effective Demand

• The number of rental units in each income group is

compared to the number of households that qualify for that band

• Over supply means more units than households.
• Under supply means more households than units.

Penetration Rate – Part 1 (Units)

• We established maximum median income limits for

each unit type

HUD 2019 Median Household Income $101,000 Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD MSA % of Median Income Maximium Income Limit x Unit Size Income Classification Range Eff/1 BR 2BR 3BR 4BR 5BR Extremely Low Rent and Subsidized 0% -30% $21,210 $27,270 $31,515 $35,160 $38,805 Very Low Rent 30% - 50% $35,350 $45,450 $52,525 $58,600 $64,675 Low Rent 50% - 60% $42,420 $54,540 $63,030 $70,320 $77,610 Moderate Rent 60% - 80% $56,560 $72,720 $84,040 $93,760 $103,480 High Rent 80% - 100% $70,700 $90,900 $105,050 $117,200 $129,350 Very High and Extremely High Rent 100% or more + + + + +

Penetration Rate – Part 1 (Units)

• We established rent bounds for different

unit types based on area median income

% of Median Income Rent Range x Unit Size Income Classification Range Eff/1 BR 2BR 3BR 4BR 5BR Extremely Low Rent and Subsidized 0% -30% $0-529 $0-681 $0-787 $0-878 $0-969 Very Low Rent 30% - 50% $530-883 $682-1,135 $788-1,312 $879-1,464 $970-1,616 Low Rent 50% - 60% $884-1,060 $1,136-1,363 $1,313-1,575 $1,465-1,757 $1,617-1,939 Moderate Rent 60% - 80% $1,061-1,413 $1,364-1,817 $1,576-2,100 $1,758-2,343 $1,940-2,586 High Rent 80% - 100% $1,414-1,767 $1,818-2,272 $2,101-2,625 $2,344-2,929 $2,587-3,233 Very High and Extremely High Rent 100% or more $1,768 + $2,273 + $2,626 + $2,930 + $3,234 +

Penetration Rate – Part 2 (Households)

• Income bands are defined for each income group

based on a 30% rent burden

$0 $millions

Low Rent

$70,320 $42,420

$0 $millions

Moderate Rent

$93,760 $56,560

HUD 2019 Median Household Income $101,000 Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD MSA % of Median Income Maximium Income Limit x Unit Size Income Classification Range Eff/1 BR 2BR 3BR 4BR Extremely Low Rent and Subsidized 0% -30% $21,210 $27,270 $31,515 $35,160 Very Low Rent 30% - 50% $35,350 $45,450 $52,525 $58,600 Low Rent 50% - 60% $42,420 $54,540 $63,030 $70,320 Moderate Rent 60% - 80% $56,560 $72,720 $84,040 $93,760 High Rent 80% - 100% $70,700 $90,900 $105,050 $117,200 Very High and Extremely High Rent 100% or more + + + +

Penetration Analysis Results

0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% Extremely Low Rent and Subsidized (<30%) Very Low Rent (30-50%) Low Rent (50-60%) Moderate Rent (60-80%)

Units/Qualified Renter Households

Annapolis Glen Burnie-Linthicum Odenton-Crofton Severna Park-Pasadena < Under Supply Over Supply

Gross Demand for Affordable Rental Units

3,558 Deep Subsidy Units, 20% 1,025 Surveyed Market Rate Units, 6% 1,940 Vouchers, 11% 9,221 Unserved by multifamily stock at appropriate price, 52% LIHTC/MPDU, 1,859, 11%

Units Available for the 17,603 Anne Arundel County Renter Households with Incomes below $50,000

Final Thoughts

• Anne Arundel County is a growing market.
• The county’s rental market is relatively tight with an

average vacancy rate of 2.6% among the surveyed communities.

• Almost one-half (46 percent) of renters countywide are

paying rent that is more than 30 percent of their income.

• Penetration rates reflect a significant undersupply of units

for households earning less than 60% AMI.

• Approximately one-half of the renter households in the

county earning less than $50,000 can be accommodated by appropriately priced multifamily rental units.

Thank you!

Nicole Mathison Senior Analyst Real Property Research Group, Inc. 410.772.1004 nmathison@RPRG.net