Anchorage Demographics, Housing Market & New Construction - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Anchorage Demographics, Housing Market & New Construction - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Anchorage Demographics, Housing Market & New Construction Presented by Susan Fison Anchorage HAND Commission May 7, 2014 B RE AKING GRIDLOC K . B RE AKING GROU N D. B RE AKING GRIDLOC K . B RE AKING GROU N D. Housing

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Anchorage Demographics, Housing Market & New Construction

Presented by Susan Fison

  • Anchorage HAND Commission

May 7, 2014

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Housing Anchorage seeks to find broad-based community solutions to improve the availability of housing options for Anchorage's workforce and to spur economic growth.

  • Collaborators:
  • Alaska Housing Finance Corporation
  • Anchorage Community Development Authority
  • Cook Inlet Housing Authority
  • Rasmuson Foundation
  • United Way of Anchorage
  • Anchorage Economic Development Corporation's Live.
  • Work. Play. Initiative.
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Anchorage Population (in 1000s)

Source: U.S. Census and *Alaska Department of Labor projection.

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2013 2022*

327 301 292 260 226 174 126 83

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Seniors (65 & Older)

Source: U.S. Census and *Alaska Department of Labor projection.

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2012 2022* 13.5% 7.5% 5.5% 3.6% 2.0% 1.4% 1.1%

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Households by Type

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey 5 yr average 2008-2012.

9% 26% 31% 11% 23%

Married w/Children Single-parent Families - No Child One Person Roommates

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Renters 39% Owners 61%

Anchorage Housing Market

2012: 105,517 Households

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Rental Households by Age of Head

Source: U.S. Census American Community Survey 5 yr average 2008-2012.

Under 25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75 & Up All Ages 39% 23% 18% 22% 29% 41% 58% 86%

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Type of Occupied Housing Unit

Source: U.S. Census American Community Survey 5 yr average 2008-2012.

3% 15% 23% 31% 27% 5% 2% 4% 5% 85% Single-Family 2-4 5-19 20 or + Units Mobile Homes

Owner Housing Rental Housing

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Age of Housing Unit

Source: U.S. Census American Community Survey 5 yr average 2008-2012.

9% 12% 30% 37% 13% 2000-2012 1980-99 1970-79 1960-69 Before 1960

Occupied & Vacant: 113,070 Units

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Average Apt. Vacancy Rate

Source: Rental survey by AK Dept of Labor for Alaska Housing Finance Corporation.

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 3.3% 2.6% 2.3% 1.8% 4.5% 4.7% 8.0% Healthy Vacancy Rate 5%

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Average Adjusted Apt Rents

Source: Rental survey by AK Dept of Labor for Alaska Housing Finance Corporation.

$ 0 $ 250 $ 500 $ 750 $ 1,000 $ 1,250 $ 1,500

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

3-Bedroom 2-Bedroom 1-Bedroom Efficiency

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Anchorage Apt Rents - 2013

Source: Rental survey by AK Dept of Labor for Alaska Housing Finance Corporation.

Efficiency 1-Bedroom 2-Bedroom 3-Bedroom $1,457 $1,287 $1,090 $849

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Hourly Wage Needed - 2013

Source: Rental survey by AK Dept of Labor for Alaska Housing Finance Corporation. *If spending 30% of gross income on housing.

Efficiency 1-Bedroom 2-Bedroom 3-Bedroom

$28.02 $24.75 $20.96 $17.69

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Monthly Income to Afford Rent

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Note: numbers in parentheses = number employed in occupation; dollars show hourly wage. Wages needed assumes that 30% of income will be spent on housing. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 2012. Retail Sales (6,400) Office Clerks (4,630) Managers (3,880) Nurses-R.N. (3,380) Janitors (3,070) Laborers (2,890) Fast Food (2,590) Secretaries (2,440) Bookeepers (2,340) Truck Drivers (1,750)

  • Elem. Teachers (1,630)
  • Exec. Secret. (1,610)

Carpenters (1,470)

$0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000

$5,311 $4,004 $5,541 $4,228 $3,409 $3,045 $1,595 $2,434 $2,241 $6,861 $7,706 $2,924 $2,028

Wages needed to afford 1-bedroom ($3,382) 2-bedroom ($3,843)

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How Many Minimum Wage Workers to Afford a One-Bedroom Apartment?

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Alaska Dept of Labor rental survey for AHFC.

2000 2005 2010 2013 0.7 1.4 2.1 2.8 2.8 Workers 2.4 Workers 2.0 Workers 2.1 Workers

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Anchorage Gross Rent as % of Household Income

Source: U.S. Census American Community Survey 5 yr average 2008-2012.

19% 9% 19% 54%

Under 30% 30-39.9% 40-49.9% 50% or +

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Average Home Sale Price (in 1000s)

Source: Alaska Multiple Listing Service (MLS). *First quarter of 2014 only.

$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014*

$349 $347 $337 $322 $329 $321 $326 $327 $315 $292 $260 $236 $223 $207 $188

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Average Condo Sales Price (in 1000s)

Source: Alaska Multiple Listing Service (MLS). *First quarter of 2014 only.

$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014* $198 $203 $195 $199 $191 $196 $191 $188

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Home & Condo Prices Anchorage MLS - 2013

Source: Alaska Multiple Listing Service (MLS) and local banks.

Condos Homes $346,977 $203,215

Income Needed $60,000 Income Needed $85,000

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Housing Price & CPI Change 2007-2013

Source: Consumer Price Index (CPI), U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

One-Bed Apartment Two-Bed Apartment Anchorage CPI Condo Single Family Home 6% 8% 16% 23% 28%

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Homes for Sale April 2014

Source: Alaska Multiple Listing Service (MLS).

Under $180,000 $180-199,999 $200-224,999 $225-249,999 $250-274,999 $275-299,999 $300-349,999 $350-399,999 $400-499,999 $500-749,999 $750-999,999 $1 Million +

22 34 120 110 68 60 30 26 42 12 20 18

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MLS Home Listings by Month 2006-2014

Source: Alaska Multiple Listing Service (MLS).

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1/06 7/06 1/07 7/07 1/08 7/08 1/09 7/09 1/10 7/10 1/11 7/11 1/12 7/12 1/13 7/13 1/14

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Residential Construction

How much housing does Anchorage need?

March 2012 Anchorage Housing Market Analysis: Anchorage Bowl will need 18,200 more units by 2030.

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New Housing - Anchorage Bowl

Source: Municipality of Anchorage Building Permit reports.

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 72 121 183 98 142 98 80 62 38 76 48 74 177 178 135 173 149 151 Single Family Duplex Units Multi Family Units

Projected Need: 909 Units Annually

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New Housing Units Actual vs Need - 2013

Source: Municipality of Anchorage Building Permit reports.

250 500 750 1000

418 72 173 80 318 177

Single-Family Duplex Multi-Family

Actual Need

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Conversions to New Housing Units Anchorage Bowl - 2008-2013

Source: Alaska Housing Finance Corporation (AHFC).

47% 5% 38% 10% Karluk Manor Inlet Tower Henry House Howard Johnson

Total New Units: 476

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New Housing Units & Conversions Anchorage Bowl 2008-2013

Source: Municipality of Anchorage Building Permit reports and Alaska Housing Finance Corporation.

18% 19% 64% Private Sector Conversions Non-Profits/Tax Cr.

Total Units: 2,531

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Private Sector vs Non-Profits New Housing Units 2008-2013

Source: Municipality of Anchorage Building Permit reports.

450 900 1,350 1,800 339 375 70 308 37 926

Single-Family Duplex Multi-Family

1,609 446

Private Non-Profit/Tax Cr.

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Mat-Su Population (1000s)

Source: U.S. Census and *Alaska Department of Labor projection.

25 50 75 100 125

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2022*

118 96 94 92 89 86 84 81 78 75 71 68 65 62 59

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Alaska Population 2013 & New Homes 2002-2012, by Region

Source: Alaska Department of Labor.

15% 47% 15% 23%

New Homes 2002-12

33% 13% 14% 41% Anchorage Fairbanks Mat-Su Other AK

Population 2013

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Economic Comparisons

Economic Bust Late 1980s Today Population

248,263 in 1985 down to 218,979 in 1988 Record High Population 301,134 in 2013

New Housing Units

Less than 200 per year About 350 per year

30-yr mortgage rates

9-14% 3.5-4.5%

Rental Vacancy Rate

Peaked at 26% 2-3%

Residential Foreclosures

6,621 in 1988 1,314 in 2012

Oil Prices

Under $11/Barrel $100+/Barrel

Homes for Sale

1,500-2,500 450-1,000

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  • Anchorage Bowl Mobile Home Parks
  • Important source of affordable housing

and 70% of residents own their homes.

  • Most mobile homes in parks are at least

44 years old and are valued at under $17,000.

  • Many parks have failing infrastructure

and public safety issues.

  • More than 40 parks in the bowl (668

acres). Most are well-located for multi- family housing or mixed-use development.

  • However in last two decades, nearly all

redeveloped parks have become commercial or lower density residential.

  • In the next two decades is is likely that

most of these mobile home parks will be redeveloped.

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Zoning of Mobile Home Parks Anchorage Bowl - 2014

Source: Municipality of Anchorage Property Appraisal records.

3% 5% 24% 66% 2%

R-1 R-2 R-3 R-4 B-3

Total Acres:668

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Proposed Redevelopment of Riviera Mobile Home Park

  • 30 acre park with 170 mobile

homes at 3307 Boniface

  • Space rent; $425/month
  • Assessed at $3.8 million
  • Proposed: 450 units
  • Want rezone from R2-M to R-3
  • Want deteriorated property

redevelopment tax relief

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Four Seasons

Manufactured Housing Community (Weidner Purchased in 1991)

  • Park has 367 spaces on 39 acres.

Zoned R-2M. Assessed at $6.1 million.

  • 62 owners rent spaces for $450/mo.
  • 2004 replaced 23 units; 60 in 2013.
  • New Units: 1,065 sq ft, 2 or 3

bedrooms and 2 baths.$1,300 & $1,400 per month.

  • Plan to replace 90 in 2014; 90 in 2015.
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AHFC in 2014 - 88 New Affordable Rentals

  • Village at Glenn Square: Project will

add 70 units in 14 buildings at Mountain View Drive & Porcupine.

  • San Roberto Avenue

(Russian Jack):18 units in three buildings.

  • Cook Inlet Housing

Authority will operate.

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Rustic Goat &Turnagain Crossing Apartments

  • 17,816 square-foot R-3 lot

rezoned to B-1A mixed use

  • Rustic Goat operated by

Kaladi has limited parking

  • Six three-story 1-bedroom loft-

style apartments

  • Units have 764 square feet

plus one-car garage.

  • Rent: $1,500/month, plus gas

& electric.

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Country Lane 42nd & Old Seward

  • 54 units, built in 1965. Assessed:

$2.2 million. Taxes: $33,000

  • Rezone from R-3 to R-4A:

Multifamily residential mixed-use

  • Five stories, parking underneath,

interior green-space courtyard.

  • 300-332 studio, 1& 2-bedroom

rental apartments plus10,000 square feet of commercial space

  • $70-80 million project. Estimated

taxes: $1 million or more.