Integrated Energy System Analysis – Optimization (IESA-Opt) The LP optimization model of the energy system of the Netherlands Manuel Sanchez (manuel.sanchezdieguez@tno.nl) Amir Fattahi (amir.fattahi@tno.nl)
PRESENTATION OVERVIEW Fir First st Par art: t: Model specification, capabilities, and limitations Secon Second P d Par art: t: Strategic and institutional implications
FIRST PART: MODEL SPECIFICATION Introduction Transitional Optimization Model structure Perfect foresight Rich technological detail Retrofitting and decommissioning Cross-border electricity trade Data Sources Demand Response Flexibility Pros and Cons Residential Electricity Needs and foreseen collaborations Residential P2Heat P2Liquids Flexibility of CHPs Technological Learning
INTRODUCTION Started in September Initial aim: Learning the AIMMS software The model showed promising potential, so the AIM changed to be used for ESTRAC Several capabilities have been added to the model since then The first version of the model will be released by the end of October
MODEL STRUCTURE (1/2) (SIMPLIFIED) EXAMPLE Y: Exogenous demand of economic activities X: The use of the available technologies M: The activity balance of the available technologies Model: min C*X, while M*X>=Y C: The costs of using the activities
MODEL STRUCTURE (2/2) Activities OF ∶ Min σ 𝑢,𝑢𝑗,𝑞 𝛽 𝑢 𝑗𝑑 𝑢,𝑞 𝐽 𝑢,𝑞 + 𝛽 𝑢 𝑠𝑑 𝑢,𝑢𝑗,𝑞 𝑆 𝑢,𝑢𝑗,𝑞 + 𝑔𝑝𝑑 𝑢,𝑞 𝑇 𝑢,𝑞 + 𝑤𝑝𝑑 𝑢,𝑞 𝑈 𝑢,𝑞 Drivers Retrofitting Costs Fixed Operational Investment Costs Variable Operational Energy costs Costs Emissions t : ~ 700 Technologies External p : yearly periods, i.e. 2020, 2025, 2030, …, 2045, 2050 Technologies Linear Optimization of NL energy system over the time-horizon (similar to Residential Services TIMES) Agriculture Industry Etc.
TYPES OF TECHNOLOGIES Type Description Examples Dispatchable* Their use is defined on hourly basis. Electricity generators Their usage is defined per year, but they impact Demand response tech, EVs, Storage tech, Operation, Flexible the system on hourly basis. They can deviate from flexible heat-pumps, and other similars their operation profile at each hour. Same as above, but they cannot deviate from their Standard non-flexible consumption tech, such as Operation, non-Flexible operation profile. gas boilers and IC vehicles They deviate from their operation profile and from CHP flexible CHPs their heat/power output ratio on hourly basis Technologies that can curtail their reference Electrolyzers, P-to-Gas, P-to-Liquids, P-to- Shedding (flexible) operation on hourly basis Ammonia, Hybrid technologies They constraint the use of technologies at different Electricity, Gas, Hydrogen, and district heating Infrastructure temporal scales, e.g. hours and days networks. *To consider infrastructure constraints, natural gas and hydrogen will have to be dispatched on a daily (or weekly) basis. Then, we can also give hourly flexibility to the compressors that are changing the pressure of the gas. Question for the audience: In reality, how is natural gas dispatched?
TYPES OF NETWORKS (CONNECTORS) Energy Carriers Types of Connectors 1. High Voltage 2. Medium Voltage Electricity 3. Low Voltage 4. Off-shore 5. Import/Export to neighboring countries (5 connectors) 1. Low Temperature Network 2. Low Temp. Services 3. Low Temp. Agriculture and Horticulture Heat 4. Low Temp. Industrial 5. High Temp. Industrial 6. Super High Temp. Industrial 1. High Pressure 2. Medium Pressure Gas 3. Low Pressure 4. Import/Export 1. High Pressure Hydrogen 2. Low Pressure 3. Import/Export Work in progress
INFRASTRUCTURE* Energy Types of Connectors Technology Activity Constrained Carriers High Voltage Medium Voltage e.g. kilometers of transmission lines Electricity e.g. GW Low Voltage e.g. kilometers of distribution lines Off-shore Heat Low Temperature Network e.g. kilometers of heat pipelines e.g. PJ/Day High Pressure Gas Medium Pressure e.g. kilometers of gas pipelines e.g. PJ/Day Low Pressure High Pressure Hydrogen e.g. kilometers of hydrogen pipelines e.g. PJ/Week Low Pressure Transport Charging station e.g. number of charging stations e.g. GW CCUS CCUS e.g. kilometers of CCUS pipeline e.g. Mton/Week Work in progress
RICH TECHNOLOGICAL DETAIL (1/3) INDUSTRY (~90 TECH.) Heat Boiler H2 - HT Heat for Industry Basic Metals Blast Furnace - Steel Production Waste CHP Waste - Waste Incineration Heat Boiler Gas - LT Heat for Industry Basic Metals Blast Furnace wCCS - Steel Production Waste CHP Waste wCCS - Waste Incineration Heat Boiler Gas wCCS - LT Heat for Industry Basic Metals Hisarna - Steel Production Waste CHP after gasification of Sewage - Waste Sewage Heat Boiler Coal - LT Heat for Industry Basic Metals Hisarna wCCS - Steel Production Waste Gasification of Landfill - Waste Landfill Heat Boiler Coal wCCS - LT Heat for Industry Basic Metals Hall-Heroult Standard - Aluminium Production Heat Boiler Gas - SHT Heat for Industry Heat Boiler Biomass - LT Heat for Industry Heat Boiler Gas wCCS - SHT Heat for Industry Basic Metals Hall-Heroult Improved - Aluminium Production Heat Boiler Biomass wCCS - LT Heat for Industry Heat Hybrid Boiler Gas - SHT Heat for Industry Basic Metals Hall-Heroult Novel - Aluminium Production Heat Heat Pump Gas - LT Heat for Industry Heat Hybrid Boiler Gas wCCS - SHT Heat for Industry Fertilizers Haber Bosch - Ammonia Production Heat Heat Pump Electricity - LT Heat for Industry Heat Boiler Coal - SHT Heat for Industry Fertilizers Haber Bosch wCCS - Ammonia Production Heat Geothermal HP - LT Heat for Industry Heat Boiler Coal wCCS - SHT Heat for Industry Heat Boiler H2 - LT Heat for Industry Fertilizers Haber Bosch New- Ammonia Production Heat Boiler Biomass - SHT Heat for Industry Heat Direct Heating Electricity - LT Heat for Industry Fertilizers Haber Bosch New wCCS - Ammonia Production Heat Boiler Biomass wCCS - SHT Heat for Industry Refineries Deep cracking refinery - Refineries Fertilizers Solid State Ammonia Synthesis (SSAS) - Ammonia Production Heat Boiler H2 - SHT Heat for Industry Refineries Deep cracking refinery wCCS - Refineries Chemicals Nafta Steam Cracker Standard - HV Chemicals Production Heat Boiler Gas - HT Heat for Industry Refineries Basic cracking refinery - Refineries Chemicals Nafta Steam Cracker Standard wCCS - HV Chemicals Production Heat Boiler Gas wCCS - HT Heat for Industry Refineries Basic cracking refinery wCCS - Refineries Chemicals Nafta Steam Cracker Improved - HV Chemicals Production Heat Hybrid Boiler Gas - HT Heat for Industry Refineries Koch refinery - Refineries Heat Hybrid Boiler Gas wCCS - HT Heat for Industry Chemicals Nafta Steam Cracker Improved wCCS - HV Chemicals Production Refineries Koch refinery wCCS - Refineries Heat Boiler Coal - HT Heat for Industry Chemicals Olefins from Sugar - HV Chemicals Production Refineries Bioethanol refinery from sugar - Refineries Heat Boiler Coal wCCS - HT Heat for Industry Refineries Bioethanol refinery from sugar wCCS - Refineries Chemicals Olefins from Starch - HV Chemicals Production Heat Boiler Biomass - HT Heat for Industry Refineries Bioethanol refinery from starch - Refineries Chemicals Olefins from Wood - HV Chemicals Production Heat Boiler Biomass wCCS - HT Heat for Industry Refineries Bioethanol refinery from starch wCCS - Refineries Chemicals Remaining Chemicals Production Standard - Other ETS Chemicals Heat CHP Gas - HT Heat for Industry Refineries Bioethanol refinery from wood - Refineries Chemicals Remaining Chemicals Production Improved - Other ETS Chemicals Heat CHP Gas wCCS - HT Heat for Industry Refineries Bioethanol refinery from wood wCCS - Refineries Industry Remaining ETS Industry Standard - Other ETS Industry Heat CHP Biomass (S) - HT Heat for Industry Refineries Biodiesel FAME refinery - Refineries Industry Remaining ETS Industry Improved - Other ETS Industry Heat CHP Biomass (S) wCCS - HT Heat for Industry Refineries Biodiesel FAME refinery wCCS - Refineries Industry non-ETS Remaining non-ETS Industry Standard - Other non-ETS Industry Heat CHP Biomass (L) - HT Heat for Industry Refineries Biodiesel FT refinery from wood - Refineries Industry non-ETS Remaining non-ETS Industry Improved - Other non-ETS Industry Heat CHP Biomass (L) wCCS - HT Heat for Industry Refineries Biodiesel FT refinery from wood wCCS - Refineries
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