An Evaluation of Select Seattle Emergency and Disaster Preparedness Education Programs By Rudy Owens, MA & MPHc UW School of Public Health (c/o 2012)
Background to Research Project with the Seattle Office of Emergency Management • Capstone research project for UW School of Public Health/Community Oriented Public Health Practice (COPHP) program requirements • “Equity lens” (COPHP program focus) • Goal: Partner with a local agency/organization • Goal: “To contribute to solving a community health problem in a meaningful, effective, and culturally competent fashion … .”
Primary Research Questions Addressed in Survey for OEM 1: Who attends SNAP and disaster supply kit classes (demographic data); 2. What do they know about emergency and disaster preparedness (8 questions); 3. How prepared are attendees, how do they learn about preparedness, and who do they trust for preparedness information.
Other Research Goals 1: Develop best practices for communicating emergency and disaster preparedness information (literature review, key informant interviews of emergency planners) 2: Compare survey results against results of key informants interviews (focus: how well are planners reaching vulnerable Seattle residents) 3: Share report with the OEM with recommendations to improve education/outreach to all residents, including vulnerable populations* *16 groups as defined by VPAT/Public Health-Seattle & King County
Research Methods & Timeline • July 2011: Agreement with OEM Aug. 2011: Approval UW Human Subjects Division (institutional review • board, or IRB) Sept.-Nov. 2011: Survey given at 7 SNAP/supply kit classes • Sept.-Oct. 2011: Interviews with 8 key informants • Oct.-Nov. 2011: Code & analyze data • Nov. 2011-Jan. 2012: Prepare capstone and reports for OEM/UW • School of Public Health (SPH) Jan. 2012: 2 reports shared with OEM •
So, What Do We Know? International District, Seattle, immediately after Nisqually Delta Earthquake, March 2001.
The Bad News – Disasters Happen Frequently, and They Are Very, Very Costly in Dollars and Lives: • The United States has sustained 112 weather/climate related disasters over the past three decades in which total damages/costs reached or exceeded $1 billion . • The total losses for the 112 events exceed $750 billion (in 2011 dollars). • This is not counting earthquakes or manmade disasters/incidents Source: NOAA, 2011
Source: NOAA, 2010
1980-2010 Billion Dollar U.S. Weather/Climate Disasters (Damage Amounts in Billions of Dollars and Costs Normalized to 2007 Dollars Using GNP Inflation / Wealth Index) 1980 Drought / Heat Wave e $55.4 ~10,000 Deaths Hurricane Alicia Florida Freeze Gulf Storms / Flooding W Storms / Flooding 1983 $6.3 21 Deaths ~ $4.2 No Deaths ~ $2.3 ~ 50 Deaths ~ $2.3 ~ 45 Deaths Florida Freeze Hurricane Elena Hurricane Juan 1985 ~ $2.3 No Deaths $2.5 4 Deaths $2.9 63 Deaths The most deadly 1986 Drought / Heat Wave $2.4 ~100 Deaths e = estimated > = greater than/at least ~ = approximately/about * = undetermined 1988 Drought / Heat Wave weather & climate e $71.2 ~7,500 Deaths < 5 5-20 20-30 30-40 > 40 Hurricane Hugo N Plains Drought 1989 Amounts in Billions of Dollars > $15.3 86 Deaths > $1.7 No Deaths disaster in the last 3 S Plains Flooding California Freeze 1990 Source: NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center Asheville, NC 28801-5001 > $1.6 13 Deaths > $5.5 No Deaths www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/reports/billionz.html 1991 Hurricane Bob Oakland CA Firestorm decades was the $2.3 18 Deaths ~ $3.9 25 Deaths Hurricane Andrew Hurricane Iniki Nor’easter 1992 ~ $40.0 61 Deaths ~ $2.7 7 Deaths $2.3 19 Deaths 1980 heat wave: E Storm / Blizzard SE Drought / Heat Wave Midwest Flooding CA Wildfires 1993 $7.9 ~ 270 Deaths ~ $1.4 > 16 Deaths ~ $30.2 48 Deaths ~ $1.4 4 Deaths 1994 SE Ice Storm Tropical Storm Alberto Texas Flooding W Fire Season ~ $4.2 9 Deaths ~ $1.4 32 Deaths ~ $1.4 19 Deaths ~ $1.4 No Deaths 1995 CA Flooding SE / SW Severe Wx Hurricane Marilyn Hurricane Opal > $4.1 27 Deaths $7.5 32 Deaths e $2.9 13 Deaths > $4.1 27 Deaths Blizzard / Flooding Pacific NW Flooding S Plains Drought Hurricane Fran 1996 • $55 billion ~ $4.0 187 Deaths ~ $1.3 9 Deaths ~ $6.8 No Deaths > $6.6 37 Deaths Midwest Flood / Tornadoes N Plains Flooding W Coast Flooding 1997 e $1.3 67 Deaths ~ $4.8 11 Deaths ~ $3.9 36 Deaths damage (3 rd 1998 New England Ice Storm SE Severe Wx MN Severe Storms / Hail S Drought / Heat Wave Hurricane Bonnie > $1.8 16 Deaths > $1.3 132 Deaths > $1.9 1 Death $9.5 > 200 Deaths ~ $1.3 3 Deaths Hurricane Georges Texas Flooding California Freeze e $7.4 16 Deaths ~ $1.3 31 Deaths $3.2 No Deaths costliest) AR - TN Tornadoes OK - KS Tornadoes E Drought / Heat Wave Hurricane Floyd 1999 ~ $1.6 17 Deaths > $2.0 55 Deaths > $1.2 e 502 Deaths e > $7.4 77 Deaths 2000 Drought / Heat Wave Western Fires e > $4.8 ~ 140 Deaths > $2.4 No Deaths Midwest / OH Valley 2001 Tropical Storm Allison Hail / Tornadoes e ~ $5.6 > 43 Deaths > $2.2 > 3 Deaths • Estimated 10,000 30-State Drought Western Fires 2002 Severe Wx / Tornadoes e > $11.4 No Deaths > $2.3 ~21 Deaths > $1.9 7 Deaths Severe Wx / Hail Severe Wx / Tornadoes Hurricane Isabel S California Wildfires 2003 deaths (disputed > $1.8 3 Deaths > $3.8 51 Deaths ~ $5.6 55 Deaths > $2.8 22 Deaths Hurricane Charley Hurricane Frances Hurricane Ivan Hurricane Jeanne 2004 e ~ $16.5 35 Deaths e ~ $9.9 48 Deaths e > $15.4 57 Deaths e > $7.7 28 Deaths by other sources) 2005 Hurricane Dennis Hurricane Katrina Hurricane Rita Midwest Drought Hurricne Wilma e > $2.2 > 15 Deaths e ~ $133.8 > 1833 Deaths e ~ $17.1 119 Deaths e > $1.1 No Deaths e ~ $17.1 35 Deaths Severe Storms MW / SE MW / Ohio Valley Numerous Wildfires Widespread Drought Northeast Flooding 2006 Tornadoes Tornadoes Tornadoes > $1.0 28 Deaths e > $6.2 * Deaths > $1.0 20 Deaths e > $1.0 10 Deaths > $1.5 10 Deaths ~ $1.1 27 Deaths Great Plans East / South Western Wildfires Spring Freeze California Freeze 2007 East Drought Severe Weather > $1.0 12 Deaths > $2.0 No Deaths > $1.4 1 Deaths > $5.0 * Deaths > $1.5 9 Deaths Southeast / MW / Ohio Valley MW / Mid-Atl. Midwest Flooding U.S. Wild Fires 2008 Midwest Tornadoes Svr Wx / Tornadoes Svr Wx / Tornadoes e > $15.0 24 Deaths > $2.0 16 Deaths > $1.0 57 Deaths > $2.4 13 Deaths > $1.1 18 Deaths Hurricane Dolly Hurricane Gustav Hurricane Ike Widespread Drought > $1.2 3 Deaths > $5.0 53 Deaths > $2.0 No Deaths > $27.0 > 112 Deaths Southeast / Ohio Valley Midwest, South, East Southwest / G. Plains Midwest / Southeast South / Southeast Western 2009 Severe Weather Tornadoes Tornadoes & Severe Weather Severe Weather Wild Fires Drought > $1.4 10 Deaths > $1.0 No Deaths > $1.2 6 Deaths > $1.1 No Deaths > $1.0 10 Deaths e > $5.0 No Deaths Northeast East / South Midwest 2010 Flooding Flooding / Severe Weather Tornadoes & Severe Weather > $1.5 11 Deaths > $3.0 3 Deaths > $2.3 32 Deaths Source: NOAA, 2011
Terrorism: Threat Real in PNW, Harder to Measure Difficult to quantify/describe "terrorist" attacks: • - Depends who is counting--FBI, advocacy groups, left/right-leaning foundations. - How to count firearm-related violence? • Southern Poverty Law Center estimate: - 30 plots/attacks by “jihadists" on U.S. soil since 2002 - 100+ terrorist plots/attacks by right wing extremists since 1995. Some High Profile Domestic Incidents (excluding flights attacked heading to USA) (sources vary, most major media accounts) • 1995: Oklahoma City: 168 dead • 1996: Olympic bombing, Atlanta: 1 dead, 100+ wounded • 1999: Failed millennial bomb plot, Seattle (no casualties) • 2001: 9/11 attacks, total dead and missing numbered 2,992 (all venues) • 2001: Fort Dix shootings, 4 dead • 2007: Virginia Tech shootings, 33 dead (may not be classified as terrorism) • 2009: Fort Hood shootings, 13 dead
Earthquake Fatalities Since 1964 (Less Deadly Than Heat/Weather) Earthquake date Name Fatalities 1964 03 28 Prince William Sound, Alaska* 128 1965 04 29 Seattle, Washington 7 1969 10 02 Santa Rosa, California 1 1971 02 09 San Fernando, California 65 1975 11 29 Hawaii Island, Hawaii 2 1983 10 28 Borah Peak, Idaho 2 1987 10 01 Los Angeles-Whittier, Cailfornia 8 1987 10 04 Los Angeles-Whittier, California 1 1989 08 08 Santa Cruz County, California 1 1989 10 18 Santa Cruz County, California 63 1991 06 28 Southern California 2 1992 06 28 Landers, California 3 1993 09 21 Klamath Falls, Oregon 2 1994 01 17 Northridge, California 60 1995 02 03 Wyoming 1 2003 12 22 Central California 2 *Tsunami: 98 Alaska, 11 California, 4 Oregon. Earthquake: 15 Alaska. Source: U.S. Geological Service, 2012
Disasters Tend to Impact Vulnerable Populations the Most • One study after the 1980 heat wave noted, “Public health preventive measures in future heat waves should be directed toward the urban poor, the elderly, and persons of other-than- white races.” (all “vulnerable populations”)* • Has anything changed in 30 years? *Jones et al., 1982
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