AGRICULTURE IN IDAHO Economics Climate Irrigation Use Andrea - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

AGRICULTURE IN IDAHO

Economics Climate Irrigation Use

Andrea Leonard

Socio-Ecological Systems (SES)

• Multi-level systems that involve bio-geo-

physical components and the social systems they provide services to

• Social and ecological systems are truly

interdependent and constantly co- evolving and feeding off of each other

• The delineation between social and

ecological systems is arbitrary

(Binder et al., 2013)

Agricultural Socio-Ecological System

Soils Climate Crops Irrigation Economics Personality Policy Technology

(Marten, 2001)

So What?

Global Agricultural Water Usage

• ~60% of global freshwater

withdrawals go towards irrigation uses

• Water use efficiency is increased

in properly irrigated agriculture

• Productivity of rainfed systems

depends on climate, which is variable

(Fereres and Soriano, 2007)

Irrigated systems Rainfed systems

Global Data

Agricultural Water Usage

• Climate change will alter spatial and

temporal water demands in areas of domestic food production

• Semi-arid regions will expand, making

efficient irrigation even more essential for water conservation in these areas

• Population growth will increase water

stresses associated with agricultural production

(Jin and Sridhar, 2012)

Research Questions

In what way will climate change and climate variability impact agricultural production and irrigation use? How will human decisions and management practices (small/medium/large farms) affect crop yield and associated water use? What will integrating both of these social and biophysical systems reveal about regional water demand and use, crop distributions, and crop yields?

Study Area

• Lower Boise River

Basin

• 1300 square miles

CropScape

Agricultural Data from 2005-2014

Study Area

• Fertile soil of the region

provide excellent conditions for diverse agricultural products

• Anderson Ranch, Arrow Rock,

and Lucky Peak reservoirs of the Boise River offer abundant water for irrigation

• There are 3.2 million acres of

irrigated land within the state.

Photo: NASS CropScape on Google Earth Image

Boise

Eagle Nampa Meridian Caldwell

Parma Wilder

Study Area

• 1st in nation for the production
• f potatoes
• Idaho is also known for its seed

industry producing 80-85% of the sweet corn seed produced in the world

• 3rd in nation for the production
• f alfalfa hay, hops,

sugarbeets, mint, fresh prunes and plums, and milk

Photo: NASS CropScape on Google Earth Image

Boise

Eagle Nampa Meridian Caldwell

Parma Wilder

Study Area

Rapid population growth in the Boise metropolitan area (~2%/year) P = P0 x ert P = 650,288 x e.02 x 35 By 2050, the population will be 1,300,504 – double the current population – if growth continues at this pace

(Idaho Dept of Labor)

Photo: NASS CropScape on Google Earth Image

Boise

Eagle Nampa Meridian Caldwell

Parma Wilder

Introduction Objectives Methods Hypotheses

CropSyst is a crop growth simulation model

used to study the effect of cropping systems management on farming productivity

Biophysical System Precipitation Temperature CO2 Concentration Social System Crop Choice Irrigation Use Technology

CropSyst

Total Water Use per unit area Agricultural Productivity per unit area

Small-sized Farm

• more sustainable management
• water conservation
• polyculture (multiple crops)
• sells to local consumers

Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3

Mid-sized Farm

• sustainable management
• efficient irrigation
• crop rotation

Large Industrial Farm

• economically driven
• inefficient water use
• monoculture (one crop)
• sells to other regions

Small-sized Farm

• more sustainable management
• water conservation
• polyculture (multiple crops)
• sells to local consumers

Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3

Mid-sized Farm

• sustainable management
• efficient irrigation
• crop rotation

Large Industrial Farm

• economically driven
• inefficient water use
• monoculture (one crop)
• sells to other regions

Climate Change Projections

Scenario 1 Scenario 3 Scenario 2

Outputs of Model

Scenario 1 WITH Climate Change Scenario 3 WITH Climate Change Scenario 2 WITH Climate Change Water Use per unit area Crop Yield Water Use per unit area Crop Yield Water Use per unit area Crop Yield Water Use per unit area Crop Yield Water Use per unit area Crop Yield Water Use per unit area Crop Yield

Envision

• An agent-based modeling framework

that uses socio-ecologic systems to produce alternative future scenarios

• Uses point-based output from

CropSyst to simulate water use and crop yield over a larger area

• Provides a robust model that

replicates a system sensitive to climate change and development

Hypotheses

• As CO2 increases with climate change crop yield per unit area will

increase until a specific average temperature threshold is met, after which crop yield per unit area will decrease

• More efficient farm management practices will result in less

water use per unit area

• Medium sized farms will succeed both ecologically and

economically with climate change

Thank you for listening! Questions?