2018 Idaho Barley Report Kelly Olson, kolson@barley.idaho.gov Idaho Barley Commission January 2018
Key Points SMALLER U.S. and World Barley Crops MY 2017/18 Barley Market Fundamentals Beer Demand Outlook Food Barley Outlook 2018 Crop Outlook
2017 Idaho Barley Crop Harvested area 510,000 acres - 12% Production 48.45 million bu -22% Ave. Yields 95 bpa -11% 2017-18 Idaho barley farm-gate value - $265 million -1% (UI 2017 Financial Condition of Idaho Agriculture) Idaho barley represents 34% of total U.S. barley production Source: USDA Small Grains Report, Sept. 30, 2017
Gr Grain Price Outlook ain Price Outlook 2017/18 Global Grain S&D million metric tons Production Use Ending Stocks 2650 653 643 627 578 2600 2550 2500 2450 2400 2350 MY 2014/15 MY 2015/16 MY 2016/17 MY 2017/18 Source: USDA WASDE, Jan. 12, 2018
2017/18 Barley Market WASDE, WASDE, Ja Jan. n. 12 12, , 2017 2017 MY 2017/18 MY 2016/17 MY 2015/16 Area harvested 2.0 2.6 3.2 (mil. acres) Yield (bu/Ac) 72.6 77.9 69.1 Beginning Stocks (mbu) 106 102 79 Production 142 200 218 -29% Imports 15 10 19 Total Supply 263 312 315 Feed 35 39 44 Food/malting 162 162 158 Exports 5 4 11 Total Use 202 205 213 -42% Ending 61 106 102 Ave. price $4.15-4.85 $4.96 $5.52 -9%
U.S. Beer Demand 20 Calendar Calendar Calendar Calendar Calendar Percent Change Year Year Year Year Year in Volume 2017 (Dec1) 2016 2015 2014 2013 -1.7% +0.0% Total Supply -0.1% +0.4% -1.2% -0.8% Domestics -1.2% -0.7% -1.3% +6.8% Imports +6.2% +6.9% -0.6% 2016 Craft Beer Sales +6.2% 12.3% share
Steady growth in food barley demand
Barley’s Health & Wellness ▪ Reduces cholesterol and associated risk of heart disease ▪ Regulates blood-glucose levels, reduces glucose intolerance and insulin resistance ▪ Helps with weight control ▪ Improves digestive health.
Barley’s Health & Wellness University of Idaho Top op 100 100 Foo oods ds for or Healthy Diabetes Plate Alz Alzeimer eimer Pr Preven ention tion
Food Barley 20 Products
2018 New 2018 New Crop Outlook Crop Outlook • North Idaho malting & food barley contracts steady to higher. • U.S. winter wheat acres pegged at 32.61 million, lowest since 1909. • U.S. corn acres projected to be 1% lower. • Drought expanding across key HRW growing areas.
La Nina La Nina Winter inter Outlook Outlook Wintertime La Nina Pattern • Equatorial Sea Surface Temperatures are below average in the central and east-central Pacific Ocean • La Niña conditions are present • La Niña is favored to persist (~85-95% chance) through winter 2018, with transition to ENSO neutral by spring. La Niña is likely (~85-95%) through Northern Hemisphere winter, with a transition to ENSO-neutral expected during the spring.* NWS BOISE
IBC GR IBC GROWER OWER EDUCA EDUCATION TION • Idaho Gr Idaho Grain ain Ma Market R et Repor eport t published weekly by IBC at www.barley.Idaho.gov • Links to recorded WEBI WEBINAR ARS … ▪ Five Common Mistakes in Grain Marketing featuring Ed Usset , University of Minnesota Center for Farm Financial Management. ▪ Winter 2018 Weather & Water Outlook featuring Troy Lindquist, NWS Senior Hydrologist. ▪ How to Write a Pre-Harvest Grain Marketing Plan, featuring Ed Usset, Univ. of Minnesota. • Ge GeoG oGrain ain Mar Market et A App pp – working with app developer to add Idaho elevator cash prices. Offers terrific grain market optimizer tools.
Thank You Kelly Olson, 208.334.2090, 208.409.9165 cell kolson@barley.idaho.gov www.barley.idaho.gov
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