2018 Idaho Barley Report Kelly Olson, kolson@barley.idaho.gov Idaho - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

2018 Idaho Barley Report

Kelly Olson, kolson@barley.idaho.gov Idaho Barley Commission January 2018

Key Points

 SMALLER U.S. and World Barley Crops  MY 2017/18 Barley Market Fundamentals

 Beer Demand Outlook  Food Barley Outlook  2018 Crop Outlook

2017 Idaho Barley Crop

Harvested area 510,000 acres

• 12%

Production 48.45 million bu

• 22%
• Ave. Yields

95 bpa

• 11%

2017-18 Idaho barley farm-gate value - $265 million -1%

(UI 2017 Financial Condition of Idaho Agriculture)

Idaho barley represents 34% of total U.S. barley production

Source: USDA Small Grains Report, Sept. 30, 2017

Gr Grain Price Outlook ain Price Outlook

2017/18 Global Grain S&D

Source: USDA WASDE, Jan. 12, 2018

2350 2400 2450 2500 2550 2600 2650

MY 2014/15 MY 2015/16 MY 2016/17 MY 2017/18

Production Use

578

Ending Stocks

627 653 643

million metric tons

2017/18 Barley Market

WASDE, WASDE, Ja Jan.

• n. 12

12, , 2017 2017

MY 2017/18 MY 2016/17 MY 2015/16

Area harvested (mil. acres) 2.0 2.6 3.2 Yield (bu/Ac) 72.6 77.9 69.1 Beginning Stocks (mbu) 106 102 79 Production 142 200 218 Imports 15 10 19 Total Supply 263 312 315 Feed 35 39 44 Food/malting 162 162 158 Exports 5 4 11 Total Use 202 205 213 Ending 61 106 102

• Ave. price

$4.15-4.85 $4.96 $5.52

• 9%
• 29%
• 42%

20

U.S. Beer Demand

2016 Craft Beer Sales +6.2% 12.3% share

Percent Change in Volume

Calendar Year 2017 (Dec1) Calendar Year 2016 Calendar Year 2015 Calendar Year 2014 Calendar Year 2013 Total Supply

• 1.7%

+0.0%

• 0.1%

+0.4%

• 1.2%

Domestics

• 0.8%
• 1.2%
• 0.7%
• 1.3%

Imports +6.8% +6.2% +6.9%

• 0.6%

Steady growth in food barley demand

Barley’s Health & Wellness

▪ Reduces cholesterol and associated risk of heart disease ▪ Regulates blood-glucose levels, reduces glucose intolerance and insulin resistance ▪ Helps with weight control ▪ Improves digestive health.

Barley’s Health & Wellness

Top

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Alz Alzeimer eimer Pr Preven ention tion University of Idaho Healthy Diabetes Plate

20

Food Barley Products

2018 New 2018 New Crop Outlook Crop Outlook

• North Idaho malting & food barley contracts steady to higher.
• U.S. winter wheat acres pegged at 32.61 million, lowest since 1909.
• U.S. corn acres projected to be 1% lower.
• Drought expanding across key HRW growing areas.

NWS BOISE

La Nina La Nina Winter inter Outlook Outlook

Wintertime La Nina Pattern

• Equatorial Sea Surface Temperatures are below average

in the central and east-central Pacific Ocean

• La Niña conditions are present
• La Niña is favored to persist (~85-95% chance) through

winter 2018, with transition to ENSO neutral by spring.La Niña is likely (~85-95%) through Northern Hemisphere winter, with a transition to ENSO-neutral expected during the spring.*

• Idaho Gr

Idaho Grain ain Ma Market R et Repor eport t published weekly by IBC at www.barley.Idaho.gov

• Links to recorded WEBI

WEBINAR ARS… ▪ Five Common Mistakes in Grain Marketing featuring Ed Usset, University of Minnesota Center for Farm Financial Management. ▪ Winter 2018 Weather & Water Outlook featuring Troy Lindquist, NWS Senior Hydrologist. ▪ How to Write a Pre-Harvest Grain Marketing Plan, featuring Ed Usset, Univ. of Minnesota.

• Ge

GeoG

• Grain

ain Mar Market et A App pp – working with app developer to add Idaho elevator cash prices. Offers terrific grain market optimizer tools.

IBC GR IBC GROWER OWER EDUCA EDUCATION TION

Thank You

Kelly Olson, 208.334.2090, 208.409.9165 cell kolson@barley.idaho.gov www.barley.idaho.gov