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Advanced Electric Generating Advanced Electric Generating Advanced Electric Generating Technologies in a Computable General Technologies in a Computable General Technologies in a Computable General Equilibrium Model Equilibrium Model

SLIDE 1

Advanced Electric Generating Technologies in a Computable General Equilibrium Model

Ron Sands Joint Global Change Research Institute Battelle – PNNL – University of Maryland Presented at: The 8th AIM International Workshop Tsukuba, Japan 13-15 March 2003

Advanced Electric Generating Advanced Electric Generating Technologies in a Computable General Technologies in a Computable General Equilibrium Model Equilibrium Model

Ron Sands Ron Sands Joint Global Change Research Institute Joint Global Change Research Institute Battelle Battelle – – PNNL PNNL – – University of Maryland University of Maryland Presented at: Presented at: The 8 The 8th

th AIM International Workshop

AIM International Workshop Tsukuba, Japan Tsukuba, Japan 13 13-

15 March 2003

15 March 2003

SLIDE 2

Overview Overview Overview

Why change model framework?

Work with sector specialists Need for modularity suggests object-oriented framework

SGM review Class diagrams Example: Electricity Generation

Advanced technologies Engineering cost model Generation without carbon capture and carbon prices at {$0, $100,

$200}

Generation with carbon capture and carbon prices at {$0, $100,

$200, $300}

Modeling activities

SLIDE 3

Collection of computable-general-equilibrium (CGE) models for 14 world regions Five-year time steps from 1990 through 2050 Capital stocks are industry-specific with a new vintage for each model time step

Second Generation Model Second Generation Model Second Generation Model

SLIDE 4

SGM Regions SGM Regions SGM Regions

Annex I

United States Canada Western Europe Japan Australia Former Soviet Union Eastern Europe

Non Annex I

China India Brazil Middle East Mexico South Korea Rest of World

SLIDE 5

1 agriculture 2 everything else (including services) 3 crude oil production 4 natural gas production 5 coal production 6 coke 7 electricity generation 8 oil refining 9 distributed gas 10 paper and pulp 11 chemicals 12 non-metallic minerals 13 primary metals 14 food processing 15 other industry and construction (including other mining) 16 rail and land transport 17 other transport

Production Sectors in SGM Production Sectors in SGM Production Sectors in SGM

SLIDE 6

1 1 * 1 Region nameRegion

perateSector(all Sectors)

SectorGeneric nameRegion nameSector SectorElectricity nameRegion nameSector getUnitCost(all Technologies) calcTechnologyShares

perateTechnology(all Technologies)

calcUnitCostAverage getUnitCost(all Technologies) calcTechnologyShares

perateTechnology(all Technologies)

calcUnitCostAverage

Class Diagram: Sector Level and Above

SLIDE 7

1 1..* 1 1 1 * Technology nameRegion nameSector nameTechnology

perateVintageNew
perateVintageOld(all VintageOld)

SectorElectricity nameRegion nameSector getUnitCost(all Technologies) calcTechnologyShares

perateTechnology(all Technologies)

calcUnitCostAverage VintageNew nameRegion nameSector nameTechnology idVintage techCoefficients calcUnitCost(prices) calcInputDemands(output,prices) VintageOld nameRegion nameSector nameTechnology idVintage techCoefficients capitalStock calcOutput(capitalStock) calcInputDemands(output,prices)

Class Diagram: Sector Level and Below

SLIDE 8

Electricity Sector Electricity Sector Electricity Sector

All production sectors other than electricity represented by CES production function Each electric generating technology represented by fixed- coefficient production function Electricity sector uses a nested logit structure to allocate new investment to generating technologies

electricity from fossil fuels peaking base load PC gas-CT

hydro/renew. nuclear NGCC IGCC

SLIDE 9

Engineering Cost Model Engineering Cost Model Engineering Cost Model

Electricity Generation (hypothetical plant)

First cost of capital ($ per kW) Interest rate Equipment lifetime (years) Heat rate (efficiency) Operation and maintenance (mills per kWh) Price of fuel ($ per GJ) Carbon emissions coefficient (kg C per GJ)

Capture Process

Fraction of CO2 captured (efficiency) Capital Cost ($ per kg CO2 per hour) Operation and Maintenance (mills per kg CO2) Energy required (kWh per kg CO2)

Calculate total cost per kWh (mills per kWh) with and without capture for each generating technology

SLIDE 10

Cost Comparison Cost Comparison Cost Comparison

reference with capture mills/kWh mills/kWh $/ton C Pulverized Coal 45.5 84.4 189 Coal IGCC 50.6 68.8 96 NGCC 36.8 53.3 187

Note: Cost per ton of carbon avoided is for capture

nly and does not include sequestration cost.

SLIDE 11

Electricity Cost as a Function of Carbon Price

PC IGCC NGCC PC-capture IGCC-capture NGCC-capture

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 50 100 150 200 250 300 carbon price (dollars per tC) mills per kWh

SLIDE 12

Electricity Cost as a Function of Carbon Price

IGCC NGCC IGCC-capture NGCC-capture 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 50 100 150 200 250 300 carbon price (dollars per tC) mills per kWh

SLIDE 13

nuclear hydro

gas (CT) gas (NGCC) gas (NGCCcd) coal (PC) coal (IGCC) coal (IGCCcd)