+ Addison County Event Host: Middlebury College, ACEDC, Addison - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

+

Addison County Event Host: Middlebury College, ACEDC, Addison Chamber of Commerce

April 21, 2016 Lewis&Stromsten Jeffrey Lewis, Jennifer Stromsten, RT Brown, Danielle Southwell

+ Today’s Agenda

Overview of The Vermont Futures

Project

Thinking about Vermont’s Economy The view from data Building our Vision

+ THE VERMONT FUTURES PROJECT

A data-driven initiative to secure Vermont’s economic future and to provide opportunity for Vermonters.

• Vermont Chamber of Commerce created

the Vermont Chamber Foundation a non- profit research entity

• Learned from many other similar

Foundations—North Carolina, Kentucky, Florida, etc

• Long term attention to the economy

spanning administrations

+ KEY DELIVERABLES VT Futures Project Phases

 Phase I : Data-driven dashboard of economic

indicators to measure performance and track progress: Published January 8, 2016

 Phase II: Long-term vision for a robust economy that

provides opportunities for all Vermonters, Due Summer 2016

 Phase III: Specific policy recommendations to make

the vision a reality with supporting data, comparisons, and research support

+ How did Vision become part of an Economic Development Project?

 We need something to think about that’s bigger than ourselves  We need a way to share values and goals that doesn’t require

political negotiation.

 We steer by where we want to go, with an understanding of

where we are, and the past we are rooted in

 We will work harder for something we believe in rather than

something we have to do.

We need to know what success looks like.

+ The Economy and Public Policy

A complicated relationship

 Vermont Futures Project is aimed at state policy and resources  Government has money, advice, support, and power  Public policy shapes economic outcomes through:

 Infrastructure—Roads, bridges, water and waste water  Tax policy—’The power to tax is the power…..’  Regulation – what’s easy or certain, what’s hard or uncertain  Attention—’What we measure improves…’  Investment – Dollars, relief, human or other resources  Education—’Increasing ability increases output…’  Housing and Land Use—’A finger on the scale…’

SOCIAL JUSTICE ENVIRONMENTAL MOVEMENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

Investment conflict Resource conflict Development conflict

Deals

Social Justice VISION

Fairness

Single Payer VLT CLF

Policy Marketplace

Public Assets VNRC RDC’s Chambers Industry Associations

Environmental

VISION

Protection

Housing orgs Economic VISION

Opportunity

+ How Economies Grow…

 Economies grow when populations and productivity grow

 More people means more workers and more output  Greater productivity (value per hour of work) = better pay rates

 Vermont has a stagnant population and workforce

 Little change in the last fifteen years  And largely flat from 1820 to 1960

 Productivity and wages are below the US average

 Affects opportunities for our people  Many labor intensive industries: health care, education, retail

 These are long term challenges

+ Vermont: 85 years of worry

And things are still fragile

 Vermonters have been worrying about their future since the

30’s (Commission on Rural Life)

 Several trends have persevered

 High focus and value on land and environment  Increasing focus on social and economic justice  No focus on overall economic opportunity for people or state

 Many studies and commissions since the 60’s

 Grafton Conferences  Pathways to Prosperity  VEPC, VEPC 10 year, CFED, Next Gen, CFV

+ Why are things not better?

Policy has not adjusted to the times

 Rapid Growth in the 70’s and 80’s led to great concern

about being overwhelmed

 Instituted policies and practices to control growth

 They worked!

 When growth stopped we did not adjust

 Lifestyle preferences and demand are shifting away from

‘Back to the Land’ mentality

 Vermont faces the same challenges as every rural state  Vermont did not change its vision(s)

+ Big Question: Why do we need another try now?

 The ‘Tipping Point’ is visible in:

 Bubble of population in their 50’s means an aging workforce  Continual reports of difficulty hiring workers finding critical skills  Established businesses, older proprietors don’t see a way forward  In Vermont cost of living is high and average wages are low

 The State budget ‘Alligator Mouth’ between revenue and expenses

may be a symptom that the economy is simply not growing as much as we need.

 Growth is slower than the country  More ‘shifting’ than actual growth  Challenges suggest it could stall and reverse  That crisis may be devastating Vermont’s quality of life

+ The Vermont Futures Project

Talking about What Could Be

 We have built mental models of the Vermont we want

 Agricultural and natural heritage  Fairness  Independence  NOT New Jersey

 Data challenges us to match our models to reality

 We have not grown in twenty years  Economic performance has been weak  Success, meaning sustainability, eludes us

+ The usual conversations about Vermont’s Economy

 Forecasts – doom & gloom vs. wine & roses, or “Why we

should worry (or not) and what to do about it (or not)

 Solutions – great trends & new ideas, or “Vermont’s future

will be great / greater if we keep doing x or start doing y”

 Sectors  Strategies  Values

+ Phase I of the Futures Project

Baseline data – where we are now? Dashboard – what does that mean? Indicators – how to track progress?

+ BASELINE DATA

+ DASHBOARD

+ INDICATORS

+ What are we doing now?

 Baseline data – where we are now?  Dashboard – what does that mean?  Indicators – how to measure progress?

 VISION – what does success look like?

+ The Dashboard

1.

Economy …driven by Innovation

2.

Workforce …shaped by Demographics

3.

Places …powered by Infrastructure

Three Pillar Pairs

+ Example

Workforce supply

+ Talking about Vermont’s Economy

 VERMONT WORKFORCE = 320,000 (roughly the same since 2000)  Demand “Back of the envelope”

One-time growth to reach ‘full employment’ unemployment rate: Turnover / Transition 6,000 Recurring: Retirements 3-4%/year = 11,375; Growth 2% = 6,400; Out-migration replacement = 3,200 Total = 20,975

 Annual supply = 8,300

High school graduates 5,000, College matriculation 3,500, Net to Workforce = 3,500 Total College Students 40,000, graduates est 9,000, retention rate 50% (aspirational) = 4,500 Former Vermonters (childhood or college) returning est = 300

NET new workforce needed= 12,675 annually

+ Assumptions for Today’s Work

 The economy matters and deserves attention.  Vermont’s economic health can help advance shared social

and environmental values.

 Increasing opportunity for Vermonters - individual financial

security and prosperous communities – is in keeping with traditional Vermont values.

 The economy is complex and that’s ok, in fact it’s a good thing

• diversity adds resilience.

+

 FUTURING: I believe ______ is a problem because

it will cause ________ impacting Vermont’s Economic in the future.

 BRIDGE: I’m hopeful for Vermont’s Economic

Future because of ____________

 VISIONING: If I traveled into the future and found

Vermont’s economy to be healthy and Vibrant I would see ________________.

Individual Work ( it’s all on the form don’t take notes)

+ What does success look like?

 More businesses? What kind? Where? What do they do?  More jobs? How many? For whom? Doing what? Why?  More workers? Who? How many? Where do they come from?

Where do they live?

 More economic activity?  Better places to do business?  Better places to live?

+

 Individual Work (5-10 minutes)

 Fill out the form  Pick ONE idea for each category and take it ‘across’  Keep it personal and make it specific

 Group Work (25 minutes)

 Break into three groups with facilitators

BUILDING a VISION

“When we succeed the future will look like this”

+ How the things connect up

A healthy economy needs JOBS which require… PEOPLE – enough

• f them with the right

skills, and people need… PLACES to LIVE…and great places need to be economically thriving.

+

www.VTFuturesProject.org