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Covered Bond Roadshow 01-04 March 2011 1 THIS DOCUMENT IS NOT FOR - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
THIS DOCUMENT IS NOT FOR PUBLICATION OR ANY DISTRIBUTION, DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, IN OR INTO THE UNITED STATES, CANADA, AUSTRALIA OR JAPAN. Covered Bond Roadshow 01-04 March 2011 1 THIS DOCUMENT IS NOT FOR PUBLICATION OR ANY
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The distribution of this presentation in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law or regulation. Accordingly, persons who come into possession of this document should inform themselves of, and observe, these restrictions. To the fullest extent permitted by applicable law, Banco Popolare – Società Cooperativa, and the companies of Banco Popolare – Società Cooperativa’s group and their respective directors, members, officers, employees or affiliates (collectively, “Banco Popolare”) discalims any responsibility or liability for the violation of such restrictions by any person. This presentation does not constitute or form part of, and should not be construed as, any offer or invitation to subscribe for, underwrite or otherwise acquire, any securities of Banco Popolare or any member of its group, nor should it or any part of it form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract to purchase or subscribe for any securities in Banco Popolare or any member of its group, or any commitment whatsoever. The information contained in this presentation is for background purposes only in the contest of the prospective transaction and is subject to amendment, revision and updating. Certain statements in this presentation are forward-looking statements under the US federal securities laws about Banco Popolare. Forward-looking statements are statements that are not historical facts. These statements include financial projections and estimates and their underlying assumptions, statements regarding plans, objectives and expectations with respect to future operations, products and services, and statements regarding future performance. Forward-looking statements are generally identified by the words “expects”, “anticipates”, “believes”, “intends”, “estimates” and similar expressions. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve a number of risks, uncertainties and assumptions which could cause actual results or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. Banco Popolare do not undertake any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. You should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date of this presentation.
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Appendix 1: Additional Information on Banco Popolare Group Appendix 2: The Italian Mortgage Market
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Total assets: €136.4bn; Net customer loans: €96.1bn; Direct customer deposits: €102.1bn; Indirect customer funds: €77.9bn (of which €32.1bn AuM). Banco Popolare was established on 1°July 2007 from the merger between Banco Popolare di Verona e Novara and Banca Popolare Italiana. Excellent geographical position, with an average branch market share of 10% in the main regions in northern Italy and a deeply rooted network. Core business focused on retail and SME clients (~88% of total revenues). Today, Banco Popolare is the 1st Italian popolare bank per branch number (2,119) and the 4th largest Italian bank by total assets. Strengthening of the capital position through: €2bn capital increase finalised in February 2011 (to be used also for the repayment of €1.45bn “Tremonti Bonds”); the sale of non- core assets under way; the “soft mandatory” convertible bond issued in March 2010(i).
Data as of 30/09/2010 (i) Tremonti bond issued in July 2009 for a total of €1.45bn and SMCN issued in March 2010 for €1bn.
Turnaround of Banca Popolare di Lodi starting to bear fruit. Banca Italease: re-organization completed and strong acceleration of the de-risking process (NPLs and watchlist loans of the Release portfolio decreased €1.7bn YTD, resulting in a reduction of 46% in the stock).
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559 379 153 101 96 47 35 100 200 300 400 500 600 UCG ISP MPS UBI BP BPER BPM
ASSETS - €/bn NET CUSTOMER LOANS - €/bn DIRECT CUSTOMER FUNDS - €/bn
(including outstanding bonds)
BRANCHES
Sources: 9M 2010 Reports. BP branches at the end of 2010 were 2,119 (it is recalled that Caripe had 51 branches).
9,585 7,669 2,980 2,178 1,899 1,296 782 1,500 3,000 4,500 6,000 7,500 9,000 10,500 12,000 UCG ISP MPS BP UBI BPER BPM 969 677 243 136 132 58 52 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 UCG ISP MPS BP UBI BPER BPM 590 435 155 104 102 47 36 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 UCG ISP MPS UBI BP BPER BPM
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HOLDING BPV-SGSP CREBERG BP NOVARA BP LODI CR LUPILI
BP Crema
Banca ALETTI AGOS DUCATO EFIBANCA ALETTI GESTIELLE SGR AVIPOP Assicurazioni POPOLARE VITA
Private & Investment Banking Asset Management Consumer Credit JV with Credit Agricole (61% CA, 39% BP) Merchant Banking Non-Life Bancassurance JV with AVIVA (49% BP, 51% AVIVA) Life Bancassurance JV with FONDIARIA-SAI (49% BP, 51% FONSAI)
Network Banks (1,992 branches) Product Companies
(517) (251) (416) (463) (231) # branches indicated in brackets (36) (5) # branches indicated in brackets
BP Cremona
(44) (70)
Data as of 31/12/2010
Does not include Treasury branches (26 outlets), one branch of Banco Popolare Holding and foreign banking subsidiaries in Croatia (35 branches), Hungary (10 branches) and Czech Rep. (7 branches). Banco Popolare signed an agreement to sell 100% of Banco Popolare Ceska Rep by 30/06/2011. In addition, it is recalled that Caripe (51 branches) was sold on 31/12/2010.
BANCA ITALEASE
Leasing company
(4)
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Customer loans by geographical area (30/09/10)
RoW 1.3% North- West 45.4% North-East 30.0% Centre 16.4% South and Islands 7.0%
(i) (i) All indicated market shares exclude Caripe. (ii) Branch market shares are based on a total of 2,035 domestic branches and are calculated as of 30/09/2010, of which 1,993 of the Banks of the Territory (excl. 51 branches of Caripe), 36 branches of Banca Aletti, 5 outlets of Efibanca and 1 branch for BP Holding. N.B. Deposit market shares are based on the Bank of Italy’s Statistical Bulletin and hence comprise banks’ fund-raising in the form of deposits (with agreed maturity, sight, overnight and redeemable at notice), savings certificates, CDs, current accounts and repos.
Market share by number of branches
Economically resilient northern Italy accounts for more than 70% of the Group’s branch network (more than 80% including Tuscany)
(ii)
Market share by loans and deposits in some
Group franchise at a glance
player in the Italian market, mainly concentrated in the wealthiest regions, with good market shares in both loans and deposits:
regions about 10% and above 15% in 8 provinces.
Loans Deposits
=> 15% 2.5%<=X<7.5% 7.5%<=X<15% 1%<=X<2.5% <1%
Branch Market Share:
7.95% 8.17% 7.11% 5.89% 7.92% 7.01% 8.95% 9.96% 6.69% 5.88% 7.39% 7.67%
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Customer loan breakdown by segment(i) (30/09/2010) Loan breakdown by amount (ii) (30/09/2010) Comments
Other 2% Households 26% Large Corporate 15% Mid Corporate 39% Small Businesses 18% > €250k 6% €75k - €250k 21% < €75k 73%
Revenue breakdown by business area (30/09/10)
representing ~88% of total revenues…
Banking, Asset Management and other activities.
mid-corporate customers, which together account for 83% of loans.
the contracts represented by loans <€250k.
Commercial Banking 88% Other 12%
(i) Analysis based on customer loans of the Banks of the Territory which represent about 80% of total Group customer loans (€100.2bn as at 30 September 2010), excluding non- performing loans and exposure to Group’s companies. (ii) Based on about 680,000 utilised customer loan contracts of the Banks of the Territory.
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Proprietary portfolio breakdown by asset class (HFT, HTM, AFS, CFV, L&R) Breakdown of Treasury securities by accounting valuation (€6.0bn)
(i) Average maturity: 3.15 years. (ii) Treasury Securities include Supranational bonds.
Government bonds with short-term maturities.
1.4% of total Treasury securities and with no exposure to both Ireland and Portugal.
Breakdown of Treasury securities by issuing country
Average maturity of Treasury securities: 3.07 years HTM 3% AFS 20% HFT 77% Greece 1.4% Spain 3.5% Supranational 3.3% Italy 91.8%
Comments
Treasury Sec.(ii) 53% Senior Investment Grade Bonds (i) 22% ABS (rating AAA) 1% Stake in OICR 11% Equity Securities 9% Non Investment Grade Securities 1% Subordinated Debt 3% (€11.8bn as at 30/09/2010 )
HFT accounting for 70% of total
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BANCA POPOLARE DI LODI BANCA ITALEASE CAPITAL STRENGTHENING
(return to profit generation in FY 2010).
reorganization completed.
de-risking process delivered: -46% in the aggregate stock of NPL and Watchlist loans in 9M 2010.
in progress.
recurring profitability.
de-risking and downsizing under way.
the future adoption
the Advanced Methodology.
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Group structure
subsidiaries. Central functions
commercial and staff functions between holding and the Banks of the Territory. Network
Banks of the Territory networks; identification of branches with potential for further development; redesign of network incentive systems. Small businesses
average client portfolio; turnover threshold for small businesses directly managed by the branches to be increased from €2.5m to €5.0m. Medium and large corporate
by only one Bank of the Territory. Household customers
channel by widening product offer range. Private banking clients
between Banca Aletti, retail and corporate managers.
2011-2013 Business Plan to be presented to the market during 2011 (mid-year).
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Banco Popolare Group
BP Standalone results
30/09/10 up 43% y/y.
6.6% y/y mainly driven by the trend in the euribor rates.
(i.e. escl. FVO) reached €139.1m in 9M 2010; positive FVO gross due to widening of credit spread was €261.1m.
y/y.
control and stands at 76bps (annualised).
491.7 490.1 357.0 (262.4) (221.4) 105.7 (1,768.9) (1,733,8) (1,798.4) 869.6 1,041.8 1,001.7 (436.9) (520.0) (608.4) 192.3 274.7 467.1 259.4 400.2 398.3 873.4 947.5 956.8 1,466.8 1,369.2 1,398.5 2,638.4 2,775.6 2,800.1 BP Standalone BP Standalone Group
30/09/10 30/09/09
TOTAL REVENUES:
OPERATING COSTS PROFIT FROM OPERATIONS Net Write-downs on impairment of loans INCOME BEFORE TAXES Taxes on income NET INCOME OF THE GROUP €/m 9M 2010 Group’s results are not directly comparable with 9M 2009 figures, considering that Banca Italease is consolidated starting only from 1 July 2009.
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9M 2010 Reclassified income statement - €/m Banco Popolare Group (PPA line-by-line) BP Standalone Banca Italease PPA Italease Net interest income 1.367,3 1.369,2 59,4 (61,3) Profit (loss) on equity investments carried at equity 31,1 35,6 (4,4) Net interest, dividend and similar income 1.398,5 1.404,8 54,9 (61,3) Net commissions 956,8 947,5 9,2 Other revenues 46,6 23,0 23,6 Net financial income 398,2 400,2 4,4 (6,4) Other operating income 1.401,5 1.370,8 37,1 (6,4) Total income 2.800,0 2.775,6 92,1 (67,7) Personnel expenses (1.124,6) (1.098,4) (26,2)
(577,3) (547,1) (30,2)
(96,5) (88,3) (8,2)
(1.798,4) (1.733,8) (64,6)
1.001,6 1.041,8 27,5 (67,7) Net write-downs on impairment of loans, guarantees and commitments (608,2) (520,0) (88,3)
(35,2) (35,9) 0,7
(12,8) (1,4) (11,3)
(0,8) (0,8) (0,0)
12,5 6,5 33,8 (27,9) Income before tax from continuing operations 357,0 490,1 (37,6) (95,6) Tax on income from continuing operations 105,7 (221,4) 296,2 30,9 Income (Loss) after tax from non-current assets held for sale 17,4 16,0 21,8 (20,3) Minority interest (12,9) (9,9) (3,7) 0,7 Net income for the period 467,1 274,7 276,7 (84,4) 9M 2010
Banco Popolare Group
€192.3m
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its capability to generate healthy profitability in the current tough business environment
accounted for almost
The negative impact of PPA on Banco Popolare is expected to decrease further to around -€112m in 2011, -€49m in 2012 and -€29m in 2013
spreads, was ~ €177m (€261m gross of tax). Negative impact of ~ -€333m for 9M 2009 gross of tax
~ -€70m (-€103m gross of tax)
tax credits resulting from Banca Italease being included in the Banco Popolare group’s scope of consolidation for tax purposes BP Group 9M 2010 Net Income
Non - recurring items: €392.6m net (€443.6m gross)
467.1 260.3
+176.7
+285.8
Group Net Income PPA (i) FVO Write Downs
securities DTA (Italease) Normalised Net Income
(i) Adjustment of the P&L effect of the Purchase Price Allocation related to the business combination of both Banca Italease (in 2009) and ex-Banca Popolare Italiana (in 2007), as further detailed in the Appendix.
Banco Popolare Group
Group
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Amount, Terms and Conditions
Rationale
(i) Preliminary estimates
Outcome
(99.832%).
subscribed by Banco Popolare branch customers). Underwriting
2010/2014 at a subscription price of € 1.770 per share.
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Banco Popolare capital ratios
(i) The €1.0bn ‘Soft Mandatory’ convertible notes, issued at the end of March 2010, are convertible after 18 months after the issue date, both at the request of the bondholders and of the issuer.
do not include:
Disposal of Factorit (-€1.9bn RWA) and Caripe (-€0.9bn RWA, 51 retail branches) finalized in July and December 2010, respectively.
Core Tier 1 Tier 1 Total capital +31bps
30/06/10 Accounting Ratios
+216bps
30/06/10 Pro-forma Ratios
6.1% 7.6% 10.3% 8.5% 11.2% 7.0% RWA: € 92.7bn
Disposal of Factorit & Caripe Capital increase of €2bn ‘Tremonti Bond’ redemption for €1.45bn
Bond allows to save a coupon 8.5% p.a., thereby reducing the dilutive impact of the rights issue
distributable net income (approx. +€247m in two years). More capital flexibility to sustain loan growth and dividend policy.
+110 bps on Core Tier 1 ratio);
non-core assets;
2010 from the adoption of new Bank of Italy ECAI rules (~ -30bps).
Still based on the Standard Methodology (hence not yet including any benefits from an internal rating-based methodology).
N.B.: The indicated capital ratios are still based on the standard methodology. A clear positive impact is expected from the future adoption of the advanced model.
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75% 67% 66% 54% 52% 49% 48% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Peer1 Peer2 Peer3 Peer4 Peer5 Peer6 Peer7 BP 67% Italian Peer Average: 51% European Peer Average: 34%
Source: Financial Reports as of 30/06/2010. Peers include: ISP, UCG, UBI, MPS, BPM, BPER and Carige. Source: KBW European scans report pubblished on 21/01/2011. N.B. In addition to the above-exposed countries, the European Peer Average includes also Portugal, Ireland, Austria, Greece and a UK Asian bank.
Italian comparison: data published for 30 June 2010 European comparison: estimates for year-end 2010
Notes: The Peer average is calculated as the sum of total RWA over the sum of total assets. The ratio indicated for Banco Popolare does not include the impact of higher RWAs expected at year-end 2010 from the adoption of the new Bank of Italy ECAI rules (~71%).
53% 51% 34% 33% 31% 27% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Spain Italy Nordics Germany UK France & Benelux
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30/09/2010 Households Other Small Businesses Large Corporate €/bn (average data) Mid Corporate
31/12/09 30/09/09
17.2 12.7 28.3 9.8 16.1 5.0 7.7
0.7
16.6 12.3 28.0 10.2 5.6 6.7 15.5
0.5
18.5 17.2 13.6 5.7 30.0 8.0 10.5 +10.9% +7.2% +10.5% +7.1% +7.1% +5.6% +3.1% +6.9%
30/09/10 31/12/09 30/09/09 30/09/10 31/12/09 30/09/09 30/09/10 31/12/09 30/09/09 30/09/10
€/bn
18% 26% 2% 15% 39%
0.7
Gross customer loans
Comments
(period-end data)
Mortgage loans
Banks of Territory (BdT): increase in customer loans by segments (period-end data)
Mortgage loans
4.5% since year-end 2009.
particular, Household loans increased by +10.9% y/y (+7.2% since year-end 2009), while Small Businesses lending grew +10.5% y/y (+7.1% since year-end 2009). Households Small Businesses Mid Corporate Large Corporate
31/12/09
+4.5%
30/09/10
87.6
26,2 30.5
91.6
32.8
57.1 58.8
30/09/09
86.0
26,2 29.5
56.5
+6.5%
Banco Popolare Standalone
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2,658.2 2,468.0 2,793.8 5,390.8 4,657.7 4,510.9 754.2 1,448.7 1,437.9 881.7 586.4 720.7
31/12/2009 30/06/2010 30/09/2010
€/m €/m
4,855.4 4,607.6 5,000.8 6,593.5 5,681.2 5,457.0 860.3 1,695.7 1,749.2 926.9 634.0 777.5
31/12/2009 30/06/2010 30/09/2010 13,236.1 9,684.8 9.463.4 12,984.5 12,618.5
+22.6% +3.2%
+8.5%
9,160.8
+22.9%
+13.2% +103.3%
+3.0%
+90.7%
+5.1%
+2.9% +3.3%
Banco Popolare Group
Gross impaired loans Net impaired loans
NPLs Watchlist Restructured Past Due NPLs Watchlist Restructured Past Due
%chg. 31/12/09 %chg. 31/12/09
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Comments
% change 30/09/10 over YE 2009
Trend in gross impaired loans
Peer Average: 10.2% 13.7% 10.9% 1.1% 13.1% 13.6% 6.2% 13.1%
BP Stand.
Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 Peer 4 Peer 5 Peer 6 Peer 7
+7.7%
(i) Peers include ISP, UCG, MPS, UBI, BPER, BPM and Carige. Data based on latest reported figures as at 30/09/2010.
Banco Popolare Standalone
BP Standalone total gross impaired loans BP Standalone total net impaired loans
€/m NPLs Watchlist Restructured Past Due €/m NPLs Watchlist Restructured Past Due
8,384.7 5,972.4 6,525.9 9,030.0 +21.3% +0.4% +23.1%
+16.1% +3.0% +38.8%
+9.3% +7.7% % change since YE 2009
% change since YE 2009 3,054.8 3,759.4 3,910.6 3,925.0 674.7 818.5 744.6 527.1
31/12/2009 30/09/2010
1,483.7 2,058.7 3,189.8 3,284.7 591.7 686.9 707.1 495.6
31/12/2009 30/09/2010 8,722.5
3,419.0 4,176.6 723.0 403.9
30/06/2010 6,307.4
1,803.2 3,471.8 653.6 378.7
30/06/2010 +4.5% +4.6%
increase (mainly residential mortgage loans: +12%), which has led to less accounting provisions due to a better collateralization (for these specific positions, the total coverage rose from 91% to 94%).
accounting coverage on average for positions >€3m (21%), whereas for the positions up to €500,000 the coverage is represented to a significant degree by RE collateral, with a total coverage (accounting provisions + RE collateral) of 55%.
Ditte individuali”. The 5 largest positions, which continue to perform in an orderly way, account for 45% of the total. One of these 5 positions, accounting for 13% of the total portfolio, is provisioned against by 15%, plus an additional 29% of real estate collateral solely in favour of our Bank.
specific period of the year clashing with summer months characterized by a lower level of collection activity.
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BP Standalone total impaired loan coverage ratio
(i) Peers include ISP, UCG, MPS, UBI, BPER, BPM and Carige. Data based on latest reported figures as at 30/09/2010. (ii) Coverage ratio adjusted for write-offs which the bank makes to a significant degree for non-performing loans under bankruptcy procedures (for a total of €1.9bn as of 30/09/2010) together with the entire use of the specific NPL-related accounting reserves already booked against such loans.
BP Standalone NPL coverage ratio
Adjusted coverage ratio (ii)
Comments
as non-recoverable and of the entire related specific accounting reserve previously booked; these write-offs are common in the Italian banking system for their relevant tax benefit) made on NPLs under bankruptcy procedures, are in line with the Italian banking system average (40% vs. 35% on average for total impaired loans and 64% vs. 56% on average for NPLs).
66% 60% 59% 56% 53% 49%
Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 Peer 4 Peer 5 Peer 6
45% 43% 41% 37% 28% 27%
Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 Peer 4 Peer 5 Peer 6
26%
Peer 7
40%
BP Stand.
Peer Average: 35% 46%
Peer 7
45% 64% Peer Average: 56% 28%
Adjusted coverage ratio (ii)
Banco Popolare Standalone
BP Stand.
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99 86 94 122 140
BP ‘standalone’ LLPs: quarterly trend
91,587 87,614 85,969 €/m Gross customer loans Loan loss provisions (net)
BP ‘standalone’ LLPs and cost of credit risk
520 665 437
30/09/10 30/09/09 31/12/09
€/m
Q2 10 Q3 10 191 178 Cost of credit risk (annualised) 76 76 68
BP Standalone Cost of credit risk vs. domestic peers (i)
na 76 Peer Average: 71
46 71 57 59 76 116
BP Standalone 81bps BP Group including Italease
Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 Peer 4 Peer 5 Peer 6 Peer 7 Annualised and calculated on gross customer loans
Comments
(30/09/10) na
43
BP Standalone
Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 Peer 4 Peer 5 Peer 6 Peer 7
(31/12/09) 76
Banco Popolare Standalone
All figures do not include the contribution of Banca Caripe. (i) Peers include ISP, UCG, MPS, UBI, BPER, BPM and Carige. Data based on latest reported figures as at 30/09/2010.
Peer Average: 95
bps
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Notes: Calculation based on Annual Reports. 2006-2007 figures based on IAS, previous years on Italian Gaap; 2006-2007 and 2008 excluding time factor, with 2006 including disposal of NPLs. 2004 without Linea as the company was considered as equity stake afterwards.
Stated cost of credit risk
Calculated as Net LLPs/Gross customer loans
BPV BPVN BP Stand.
0.49% 0.32% 0.21% 0.45% 0.38% 0.22% 0.56% 1.40% 0.76% 0.45% 0.54% 0.58% 0.50% 0.50% 0.49% 0.32% 0.19% 0.21% 0.52% 0.39% 0.38% 0.22% 0.56% 0.00% 0.20% 0.40% 0.60% 0.80% 1.00% 1.20% 1.40% 1.60% 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Merger with BPN Merger with BPI Acquisition of BSGSP Extraordinary Q4 2008 clean-up 0.76% 9M 10
annualized
81bps for BP Group including Italease.
Banco Popolare Standalone
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Total BP Standalone direct customer funds
€/bn Core Deposits(i) Bonds and Other Securities Repos +3.5% +6.1%
% chg. 9M 10/ 9M 09
+15.2%
+4.4%
(i) Core deposits include CDs placed with retail customers. (ii) ‘Deposits’ include the following liability items under the Bank of Italy accounting scheme: item 20 (Due to Customers), item 30 (Securities issued) and item 50 (Financial liabilities designated at fair value); N.B. Banco Popolare bonds placed with retail customers are accounted for under item 50. (iii) Peers include ISP, UCG, MPS, UBI, BPER, BPM and Carige. Data based on latest reported figures as at 30/09/2010.
however significant growth in the Households and Small Business segments (+6.2% y/y and +2.2% since YE2009).
securities of €5.9bn (end of December 2010); (ii) the residential mortgage loan portfolio not used for self-securitisations or the covered bond pool for a total of about €2bn.
30/09/09 30/09/10 30/09/09 30/09/10
66.9 68.3 45.2 48.0 +2.0% +6.2%
31/12/09
69.4
31/12/09
47.0 +2.2%
business segments €/bn
Loan/Deposit(ii) ratios vs. peers (iii) Comments
100% 99% 98% 97% 95% 87% 94% BP Group Peer Average: 95% 87% €102.1bn including Italease
39.2 41.3 37.9 43.5 47.2 50.1 10.0 8.5 8.8 97.0 96.8 92.7 30/09/2009 31/12/2009 30/09/2010
Peer1 Peer2 Peer3 Peer4 Peer5 Peer6 Peer7
Banco Popolare Standalone
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Breakdown of TOTAL funding sources
Even including still outstanding Banca Italease bonds, the core retail component accounts for a high level of 78%
Good structural balance of the core banking business: Group loan/deposit ratio historically below 1. €5bn Covered Bond issuance under the Covered Bonds Programme (guaranteed bank bonds) as an additional funding source. €25bn EMTN programme in support of medium/long-term lending strategy (used by about €15.8bn).
Comments:
Total direct customer funds: €96.8bn (30/09/2010)
Breakdown of RETAIL funding sources
Institutional 16% Retail 84% Checking accounts 51% CDs 1% Repos 11% Bonds placed with retail customers 37% 22% including Banca Italease customer funding (ca. €6.4bn)
Banco Popolare Standalone
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Portfolio of still eligible securities Comments Senior EMTN and Covered bond issues in 2010 and 2011 Institutional funding maturities in 2010 and 2011(i)
The Group’s liquidity position is satisfactory. In 2010/2011, the Group’s funding strategy of issues on the wholesale market continued with:
In addition, in March 2010 the Group successfully completed the issuance of a €1bn convertible bond (four-year maturity). At the beginning of 2011, the securitization of ‘BPL Mortgages 3’ was unwound, the assets of which to be used for following Covered Bonds issues (20/02/2011). €/bn 22/02/11 5.4 €/bn €/bn 0.5
+90
2 years 7 years 1.0
+80
Spread on mid-swap interest rate 0.5
+170
3 years 5 years (0.8+0.15)
+135
Sep./
1.0
+320
10 years
Lower T2
BP Standalone Banca Italease 1.4 2.8 3.5 2010 2011 1.6
(i) Nominal values
Jan./
Covered Bond
3 years
+170
31/12/10 5.9
Senior Senior
(0.7+0.25) Amounts indicated for FY 2010 were re-imbursed. Unwinding of ‘BPL Mortgages 3’ for €1.6bn.
0.4 7 years
Covered Bond
18 years 0.1
Covered Bond Covered Bond Covered Bond
Private Placements
7.0
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RBS, UBS Investment Bank Arrangers 10% Risk Weighting BNP Paribas Bondholders Trustee Italian Governing law Jumbo benchmark size Type of Issuance Mazars S.p.A. Asset Monitor Aaa / AAA (Moody’s / Fitch ) Ratings Dynamically adjusted via ACT/Interest Coverage Test Over-collateralisation Luxembourg Stock Exchange; EUR 100,000 Listing/Denomination Up to 15% Substitute Assets Italian Law-based Covered Bonds (OBG) Security Structure Exclusively Italian prime residential mortgages Cover Pool 80% at inclusion and capped by the Asset Coverage Test (ACT) Maximum LTV BP Covered Bond S.r.l. a bankruptcy remote, special purpose entity which benefits from segregation principals well established under law 130/1999 Guarantor Banco Popolare Societá Cooperativa Issuer Banca Popolare di Verona, Banca Popolare di Novara, Credito Bergamasco, Banca Popolare di Lodi, Cassa di Risparmio di Lucca Pisa Livorno Originator
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Swap Cash Flows
Mortgage Pool Swap Counterparties
BP Covered Bond S.r.l. (Guarantor) Investors (Emittente) Issuer
Sellers
Covered Bonds Proceeds Guarantee Purchase price Transfer of assets Repayment of subordinated loan Subordinated loan
Covered Bond Swap Counterparties
Swap Cash Flows
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Yes
Compliance with CRD
Yes – Mandatory Test and Voluntary Tests
Protection against ALM
Seller may replace, non-eligible, defaulted or non-performing loans
Protection against credit risk
To be subject to an asset coverage test on a contractual basis
Mandatory over- collateralisation
Yes
Voluntary over-collateralisation
Depending on Tier 1 and total capital ratios. There is no limit as long as the respective bank maintains a total capital ratio above 9% and a tier 1 ratio above 6%
Outstanding OBG to regulatory capital
All payments are received from the special entity's assets. These payments are expected to be collected in a separate account. Investors continue to receive scheduled payments, as if the issuer had not defaulted
1st claim in the event of insolvency
In the event of insufficient pool assets proceeds to cover their claim, investors rank pari passu with senior debt
the specially separated entity
External support mechanisms
Bank of Italy
Special Supervision
Yes
Compliant with UCITS Art. 22 par. 4
Obbligazioni Bancarie Garantite
Name of the instruments
80% / 60%
LTV barrier residential / commercials
EEA and Switzerland
Geographical scope for mortgage assets
EEA states and Switzerland, subject to a maximum risk weighting of 20% Non-EEA states or local authorities subject to a maximum risk weighting of 20% and up to 10% of the pool
Geographical scope for public assets
Up to 15%
Integration Assets
Hedge position are part of the structural enhancements intended to protect bondholders
Inclusion of hedge positions
Cover assets are segregated by Law through the transfer to a separate entity
Asset Allocation
N/A
Restriction on business activity
No: any Italian bank fulfilling specific criteria for transfer of Assets and issuance of Covered Bonds
Special banking principle
Article 7-bis of law 130/1999, Ministry of Economy & Finance decree 310 dated 14 December 2006 and Bank of Italy instructions issued on 17 May 2007
Legislation
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Pursuant to Bank of Italy supervisory regulation (dated 15 May 2007), OBG may only be issued by banks with:
– minimum consolidated regulatory capital of € 500m – minimum Total Capital Ratio of 9% – minimum Tier 1 Ratio of 6%
In addition the assignment of assets to the cover pool is subject to certain limits based on the bank’s total capital and Tier 1 ratios:
Up to 60% of the available eligible assets Total Capital Ratio (TCR) ≥ 11% Tier 1 Ratio (T1R) ≥ 7% 10% ≤ TCR < 11% T1R ≥ 6.5% 9% ≤ TCR < 10% T1R ≥ 6% No limits Up to 25% of the available eligible assets
(i) Accounting ratios as of 30/06/2010
Banco Popolare Ratios(i): Tier 1: 7.6% Total Capital: 10.3%
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Note: These pages contain a summary/overview of the Priority of Payments and Tests. For the official wording please refer to the Base Prospectus
Minimum 7.5% “OC”(93% Asset Percentage) adjusted dynamically to protect AAA/Aaa ratings The aggregate outstanding amount of the Cover Pool must be at least equal to the Outstanding Amount of all the OBG issued under the Programme The Net Present Value of the cover pool (net of the SPV general and administrative expenses) including derivatives must be at least equal to the NPV of the
Asset Coverage Test (ACT) Net Present Value Test Interest Coverage Test
Interests generated by the cover pool (including derivatives) must be sufficient to cover interest payments under the Obbligazioni Bancarie Garantite
“OC” Test
Mandatory Test (by Law)
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Assofin: breakdown by loan scope 8.8%
Evolution of Banco Popolare market share – (Assofin: “Credito Immobiliare erogato alle famiglie consumatrici”)
The “other loans” continue to grow and account for 30% of the total as of September 2010, against 22% in 2008.
2009
91% 14.4%
Flows paid for “other loans” (including replacements and substitutions) Flows paid for loan purchase Overall Change (%)
90% 86% 78% 72%
10% 14% 22% 28%
15.4% 6.1% (14.4%) (6.8%)
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2006 2007 2008 2009 (25%) (20%) (15%) (10%) (5%) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Breakdown % Growth rate %
8.50% 6.80% 2007 2008 9M 2010 ~8%
30%
70% 14%
9M 2010
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(i) Real Estate and Land Mortgages to private individuals (excluding Banco Popolare Group employees)
In 2010, Banco Popolare’s new mortgage loan production is mainly derived from the “internal networks” of the commercial banking subsidiaries (98%), which also represent about 94% of total stock.
New production (i) (data as of 31/12/2010) Stock (i) (data as of 31/12/2010) Total BP External Networks Internal Networks Volume (€/bn) 18 16.9 1.1 Total BP External Networks Internal Networks 4.3 4.2 0,1 Volume (€/bn)
Average Maturity (years) Average mortgage (€/000)
21.3 130 21.2 130 28.5 139 13.7 89 13.2 87 23.9 126
Average Residual Maturity (years) Average Residual Amount (€/000)
+ 9%
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(i) Real Estate and Land Mortgages (excluding External Networks)
Mortgages in the stock are mainly with floating rates (73% of the total). New production (mainly floating rate products) in 2010 (84% of the total), as a consequence of the declining interest rate environment in that year.
Fixed Floating Fixed Floating
33% 67% 32% 68%
% no. mortgages % no. mortgages
69%
New production 2009
New production (1) (data as of 31/12/2010) Stock (1) (data as of 31/12/2010)
67% 33%
84% 16% 73% 27%
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Sales force Underwriting Property Valuation Servicing
All mortgages are originated mainly through banking branches distributed across
channel All mortgages are underwritten at branch level The authority that approves the mortgage loan depends mainly on amount requested, length of the loan and evaluation of the automatic valuation tool “Sco.Pri”) Underwriting criteria involve scoring and customer limits, with the final decision always being made by a credit officer All mortgage properties are assessed by independent appraisers performed by CRIF All evaluations are based on full physical inspection Mortgage properties involve an insurance policy in favour of Banco Popolare Banco Popolare performs all of its own servicing through:
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Closing ATTRIBUTION OF FILE ACCORDING TO LIMITS Depending on the borrower’s (internal rating) and loan’s characteristics and falling within a given category of limit, the file is allocated to the appropriate underwriter for the credit decision Pre-closing procedures:
insurance payment
SANCTIONING Key facts for credit decision
DATA COLLECTION AND INPUT Collection of documents from the borrower (financial status & credit performance; as well as property information— location, type) EVALUATION OF TOOL “Sco.Pri” Assessment of borrower’s credit-worthiness via internal model, based on borrower’s and other available information PROPERTY VALUATION Property appraisal performed by CRIF(i)
(i) Property Valuation can also been postponed at certain conditions, but then has to be finalized before the Pre-closing procedures.
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“Sco.pri” valuation methodology: high level scheme of the automatic valuation steps
FINAL RESULT: 4 potential valuations 1 – VALID APPLICATION (GREEN) 2 – FURTHER ANALYSIS REQUIRED (YELLOW) 3 – HIGH RISK APPLICATION (ORANGE) 4 – APPLICATION WITH SEVERE PREJUDICIAL ELEMENTS (RED) Ordinary sanctioning powers Sanctioning powers increased by one level Sanctioning powers increased by two levels Preliminary checks Financial sustainability checks
Valuation CPC (internal model) Rating (or CBS Score) Expected Loss (PD x LGD)
Upgrading factors Downgrading factors
NOTE the disposable income used for all financial checks takes into consideration the cumulated income of applicant and potential loan guarantor. Loan guarantor income not considered if there are prejudicial elements, negative rating (or negative CBS Score if without rating), or it’s not a relative of the applicant Existence of minimum wage based on ISTAT poverty threshold Final total indebtedness below 50% of wage “mortgage instalment/ disposable income” ratio below internal threshold
“Adverse credit charges”
(i)
NPL on Bank or System database(i) Arrear (incaglio) on Bank
Past due on Bank or System database(*) Cancelled cheque(*) Underage applicant Inhibited applicant Bankrupted applicant ”Not to entrust” marked applicant
Other checks
Sever prejudicial elements(i) Under observation positions(i) Called positions(i) Type of applicant Type of mortgage applicant age + mortgage duration equal or above 80 years Lien > 2 Mild prejudicial elements applicant’s total net financial assets >= 50% of mortgage Value of pledged securities
(ii) >= 50% of mortgage
(**) if pledged securities >= 100% of mortgage, final result always positive
Check of monthly value (internal model) Checking of counterparty rating Check of expected loss (%) resulting from counterparty PD and weighted average for all credit lines LGD Note: (i) check performed on applicant and guarantors; (ii) if pledged securities >= 100% of mortgage, final result always positive.
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Appraisal process before 2008: for mortgages of over €175,000, properties were assessed by independent appraisers, managed by the Special Purpose Loans Group – Appraisals Office The external appraiser sent a copy of the valuation to the Appraisals Office and to the proposing branch. The branch sent the valuation together with the notary report to the Special Purpose Loans Group to complete the appraisal process Appraisal of mortgage properties were required regardless of the amount if property were located outside the territorial competencies of the branch, or other’s mortgage were already in place or for multiple properties Appraisal process after January 2008: obligation to perform an appraisal process regardless of the amount All real estate appraisal are assigned to the “Evaluation Building” department of CRIF, which comprises independent appraisers which use standardised and certified evaluation criteria. Key data and information from the appraisal are also used to perform periodic revaluation of the collateral CRIF guarantees the appraisal values and is economically responsible for the evaluations provided The report received from CRIF is sent to the Special Purpose Loans Group to complete the mortgage request process
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In the following table an example with the approving powers of the different competent bodies Up to 275,000 Branches (excluding the London Branch) Up to 2,500,000 Business Area Up to 8,000,000 Credit Up to 6,000,000 General Manager Up to 15,000,000 Chief Executive Officer Up to 20,000,000 Credit Committee Up to 30,000,000 Executive Committee Over 30,000,000 Board of Directors (EUR) Committees and Management
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Timing Actions
1st reminder letter Branch contact 2nd reminder letter Telephone contact
3rd day before the end of the month of the missed payment During the month from the missed payment 3rd day before the end of the month of the missed payment During the following 15 days after the second missed payment For 30 days from the missed payment Performed by Automatic procedure Automatic procedure Internal call centre Branch First unpaid (0 – 30 dd) For 60 days from the missed payment 2nd missed payments (30 – 60 dd) 3rd missed payments (60 – 90 dd) From 150 days to 180 days from the first missed payment At the missed payment for 15 dd Head of Credit Dpt.
Returning to performing or transfer to Arrear/NPL
External recovery company 1
Status to arrear (incaglio) Branch contact
6th missed payment (150 – 180 dd) 4th missed payment (90 – 120 dd) Branch
Direct contact domicile 3rd reminder letter
In the last 10 days of the calendar month of the 3rd missed payment Branch Following the Arrear Department valuation for 75 dd External recovery company 2
Direct contact at domicile
At the missed payment 9th missed payment (240 dd)
Proposal to NPL status
Automatic procedure Arrears dpt (incagli) -centralised (Area or head office) Partial promise to pay (150 – 180 dd)
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Current loan balance (EUR) Original LTV (%) Current LTV (%)
Balance (€) 6,287,989,856 Number of loans 64,812 Average loan balance (€) 97,019 WA seasoning (years) 2.89 WA remaining term (years) 18.61 Number of borrowers 64,560 WA CLTV 51.26% Percentage of floating rate mortgages 71.64% WA interest rate on floating rate loans (%) 2.16% WA margin on floating rate loans (bps) 120.8 WA interest rate on fixed rate loans (%) 5.35% Figures refer to volume of outstanding mortgages – Data as of 20 February 2011
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49
Base index for floating rate loans (%) Current interest rates (%) Interest rate on fixed rate loans (%) Margin on floating rate loans (bp)
Figures refer to volume of outstanding mortgages – Data as of 20 February 2011
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50
Geographical distribution (%) Regional distribution (%) Remaining term (years) Loan seasoning (years)
Figures refer to volume of outstanding mortgages – Data as of 20 February 2011
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Banco Popolare Banco Popolare 91.4% NewCo Due Net cust. loans (**): €4.8 bn BPER, BPS, BPM BPER, BPS, BPM 67.2% NewCo Uno 20.0% BPER, BPS, BPM BPER, BPS, BPM Banca Italease Impieghi Lordi: € 20,8mld Banca Italease Impieghi Lordi: € 20,8mld Banco Popolare Banco Popolare Reorganisation Banca Italease Impieghi lordi: € 9,9mld Banco Popolare Banco Popolare NewCo 1: Release NewCo 2: Alba BPER, BPS, BPM BPER, BPS, BPM 80.0% (*) €3.9 bn BPER, BPS, BPM BPER, BPS, BPM Banca Italease Impieghi Lordi: € 20,8mld Banca Italease Net customer loans: €17.2 bn Banco Popolare Banco Popolare 88.1% Post PTO Banca Italease Net customer loans: €7.0 bn * Participation held by Banca Italease in NewCo 1 post conferments and after the company’s share capital increase. ** Includes (i) the conferment of a credit portfolio of € 2.4bn and (ii) loan securitisations for a total of €2.4 bn. *** The figures in brackets indicate the receivables portfolio (leasing+mortgages) as at 30 September 2010.
Banca Italease POST- conferments + NewCo1 consolidated on a line- by-line basis The 32.8% stake in NewCo 2 consolidated with the equity method
POST-conferments PRE-conferments
proceed with the buy-out of still outstanding shares.
Starting from 31 Dec. 2009
net impaired loans: €3.0 bn 32.8%
€1.5 bn factoring Post CAP INCREASE
On July 2010 90.5% stake of Factorit has been sold to BPS anc BPM
Data as of 31/12/2009. (now: €5.8 bn)*** (now: €3.2 bn)*** (now: €2.2 bn)*** (€5.1 bn as at June 2010) Net customer loans:
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Real Estate 71% Motor 1% Aeronaval 4% Equipment 7% Corp. Mortgages 17%
‘Release’ Portfolio at year-end 2009… …and at 30/09/2010 Strong delivery in Release de-risking process: the aggregate amount of NPLs and watchlist loans of the Release portfolio decreased €1.7bn YTD.
4,850 925 92 184 2,186 1,463 NPLs Watchlist Restruct. Past Due Perform. Total 817 104 3,967 653 92 1,063 899 1,071 1,076 556 874 3,239 NPLs Watchlist Restruct. Past due >180d above the line Performing Total Gross Net Gross exposures Coverage:
38% 18% 20% 11%
Chg.
Chg.
89% of corporate mortgage loans are guaranteed by real estate assets
Chg.
rises to 109%.
33% 18% 12% 3%
Coverage:
Comments
€/m €/m
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Real Estate 57% Equipment 19% Corp. Mortgages 16% Motor 2% Other 0,5% Aeronaval 6%
Italease ‘Residual’ portfolio at year-end 2009… …and at 30/09/2010
7,317 307 497 90 6,423 NPLs Watchlist Restruct. Past Due Perform. Total 114 146 98 133 5,113 6,207 306 458 5,183 161 352 5,857 NPLs Watchlist Restruct. Past due Performing Total
47% 14% 9% 23%
90% of corporate mortgage loans are guaranteed by real estate assets
Gross Net Coverage: Coverage:
Downsizing process well on track: residual portfolio down by 15% since year-end 2009.
Chg.
43% 18% nm 5%
Comments
Gross exposures €/m €/m
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(*) On 7 th May 2010, Fitch removed Banco Popolare’s long-term from Rating Watch, where it had been placed on 19 March 2009, affirming it at A- with ‘outlook negative’. (**) On 1st July 2009, Moody’s had affirmed Banco Popolare’s ratings, giving a stable outlook to the long-term rating; on 28 September 2010 Moody’s revised the outlook of the deposit ratings to ‘negative’ from ‘stable’, while the BFSR was lowered from C- to D+. (***) On 10th March 2010, S&P removed the long-term rating from creditwatch, where it had been placed on 17 December 2009, hence affirming the long-term rating at A-, with ‘outlook negative’, and the short-term rating at A-2. N.B. Indicated long-term ratings refer to the senior debt of the Group’s companies. Updated as of September 28, 2010.
Appendix 1: Additional information on Banco Popolare
A- (negative) A-2 Standard & Poor’s*** BFSR: D+ A2 (negative) P-1 Moody's Investors Service** Support: 2 Individual: C A- (negative) F2 Fitch Ratings* Other ratings Long-term (outlook) Short-term Agency
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Short term credit rating: A2 Long term credit rating: A- Outlook: Negative Short term credit rating: F-2 Long term credit rating: A- Outlook: Negative Short term credit rating: P-1 Long term credit rating: A2 Outlook: Negative
Franchise BP as a highly systemically important institution to Italy, given its leading franchise in the Northern Italian provinces and its 5.2% market share in national retail deposits as of December 2008 Liquidity BP's liquidity profile is adequate overall in the context of much tighter access to funding. Deep territorial roots in north and central Italy tap a large and stable pool of customer deposits that covers most financing needs Capital We are confident about the positive impact of capital strengthening actions that are in
core Tier 1 ratio to sustainably exceed 7% by 2011 Asset Quality BP's management is committed to significantly strengthen the bank's current weak capital position and to address its large exposure to risky real estate operators and leasing loans that originated through agents and intermediaries during the Banca Italease consolidation Franchise BP ratings are based on its position as the fourth‐largest bank in Italy, with a strong franchise in some of Italy’s wealthiest regions Liquidity BP monitors and controls its liquidity on the basis of a three‐year plan, taking into account expected lending volumes. The volume of securities eligible for European Central Bank (ECB) refinancing is substantial: EUR11bn Capital BP’s capitalisation has been affected by a series of one‐off events since 2007 […]. Strengthening capitalisation has been one of the bank’s main objectives and will continue to be central to its strategy Asset Quality Fitch considers the high level of net impaired loans […] a key weakness of the bank, but takes comfort from the bank's good record in managing impaired loans. Fitch takes some comfort from the good quality of the collateral backing some of the group's largest impaired exposures
Source of comment excerpts: Moody’s 05-Oct-2010; Fitch 10-May-2010; S&P 26-Mar-2010.
Franchise Franchise value (C+) remains BP's main strength, although under some pressure if banking subsidiaries are sold to raise capital Liquidity BP scores worse than its Italian peers in our key liquidity ratio […] partly due to the consolidation
deposit ratio of 93% in June 2010 was satisfactory Capital Capital adequacy could be strengthened through the disposal of assets if necessary(the sale of Caripe in October 2010 will add 17bp to CT1). Asset Quality The consolidation of Italease in 2009 resulted in the worst level of problem loans in BP's rating peer group. […]The bank's senior management is closely involved in the recovery process and is having some success in recovering Italease's largest positions
Appendix 1: Additional information on Banco Popolare
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On 25th February 2010, in keeping with the resolution passed by the EGM held on 30th January 2010, and with favorable opinion of the Supervisory Board, the Management Board of Banco Popolare has approved the terms of the “soft mandatory” convertible bond to be offered in option to the shareholders and to the holders of the convertible bond “Banco Popolare Prestito Obbligazionario Convertibile subordinato (“TDF”) 4.75% 2000/2010 – ISIN IT 0001444360” with the following main features (i):
shareholders and/or holders of the afore-mentioned convertible bonds based on a conversion ratio of n. 1 convertible bond every n. 4 shares and 43 convertible bonds every 400 convertible bonds under the “Banco Popolare Subordinated Convertible Bond (“TDF”) 4.75% 2000/2010 – ISIN IT 0001444360”.
shares with a nominal value of Euro 3.60
pursuant to the procedures and deadlines below, exercise the right to request the conversion of all or a part of the Notes held into Ordinary Shares, at a price equal to €6.15 each
the Issuer may redeem all or a part of the Notes outstanding, by paying them fully or partly with shares, recognizing a premium on the bond nominal value of 10%
conversion period will be redeemed at a value not below their nominal value, through the payment of a cash amount and/or the delivery of BP shares on the basis of most recent market price of the Banco Popolare stock
(i) For all the terms and conditions of the “convertible bond 2010/2014” offer, please see the document published on Banco Popolare’s website (IR section)
Appendix 1: Additional information on Banco Popolare
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9M 09 1,369.2 1,466.7 9M 10
1,579.7 1,481.5
NII excluding PPA
BP Standalone NII
BP Stand. Peer Average (i)
% chg. 9M10 vs 9M09
€/m
penalized in particular the mark down);
by the strong contribution to the NII (90% on average) coming from commercial banking business generated by the Banks
the Territory and the low contribution from financial assets to the NII (8% vs. 22% peer average).
NII quarterly trend of the Banks of the Territory
Q3 09
457 442
Q4 09 Q1 10
459
Q2 10
449
Q3 10
443
Comments
€/m
Customer spreads Accounts on average for 90% of the NII of BP standalone PPA
(i) Peers include ISP, UCG, MPS, UBI, BPER, BPM and Carige. Data based on latest reported figures as at 30/09/2010.
Appendix 1: 9M 2010 results – Banco Popolare ‘standalone’
Contribution of the financial assets portfolio and derivatives to the NII (i) 11% Financial assets/Total assets (i) Peer Average: 20% 38% 31% 19% 13% 8%
Peer1 Peer2 Peer3 Peer4 Peer5 Peer6
8%
BP Stand.
Peer Average: 22%
Peer7
n.a. n.a. 28%
Peer1
24% 23% 20% 11% 9%
Peer3 Peer4 Peer5 Peer6 Peer7
25%
Peer2 BP Stand.
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30 September 2010, with a y/y growth of 8.5% and up 7.7% compared with 3Q 2009.
particular, commission income from asset management and bancassurance services grows 14.5% and 19.6% y/y, respectively.
873.4 947.5 9M09 9M10 +7.7% 288.3 310.6 Q3 09 Q3 10 +8.5%
873.4 314 323 311 9M 2009 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 €/m 2009 Quarterly average: €291m 2010 Quarterly average: €316m 168.0 201.0 9M09 9M10 +19.6% 97.9 112.1 9M09 9M10 +14.5% Bancassurance & Securities sale and distribution Asset Management
BP Standalone Net fee and commission income Comments
€/m €/m
Appendix 1: 9M 2010 results – Banco Popolare ‘standalone’
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259.4 400.2 9M 2009 9M 2010 +54.3%
Focus on NFR (30/09/2010)
400.2 STATED 9M 2010 +261.1
265.0 RECURRING 9M 2010 Cap gain on FVO Write-downs
Loss on PEO for Icelandic index policies Non- recurring items: +€135.2m (pre-tax)
BP Standalone NFR
202.5 193.8 Banca Aletti contribution 193.8
Comparison of
€135.2m non-recurring items, it stood at €265.0m.
asset portfolio, considering that 80% of the securities are classified in the HFT category vs. a domestic peer average
average on a quarterly basis) and sustainable over time, as mostly active in the structuring
investment products(i) distributed to retail customers through the Group’s own branch network
202.5 69 50 76 9M 2009 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10
Banca Aletti contribution to the NFR
€/m €/m 2009 Quarterly average: €67.5m 2010 Quarterly average: €64.6m
Comments
(i) Includes structured bonds, certificates, policies, capital-guaranteed, absolute return products, etc.
Appendix 1: 9M 2010 results – Banco Popolare ‘standalone’
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BP Standalone operating costs Comments Trend in other administrative expenses vs. domestic peers(i)
interest rate used in Q2 2010 for the NPV calculation of the severance fund (+€3m) and by the renewal of national labour contract (+€24m as at 30/9/2010).
deconsolidation of Caripe). Year-end 2010 will benefit from the freeze of HR turnover and from the incentive scheme which is expected to result in a total reduction of ~300 employees. Going forward, the departure of 500 employees, mostly by mid-2011, has already been agreed with the trade unions, while further reductions are planned for 2012 and 2013.
1,768.9 1,733.8 590.3 579.0 Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 Peer 4 Peer 5 Peer 6 Peer 7 BP Stand.
30/09/09 30/09/10 19,588 319 7,386 11,016 867 19,476 319 7,499 10,832 826 Total Headcount (period-end)
FTE by category (ii)
Peer Average: -0.1% % change 9M 2010 over 9M 2009
∆
(i) Peers include ISP, UCG, MPS, UBI, BPER, BPM and Carige. Data based on latest reclassified figures as reported by each bank as at 30/09/2010. (ii) Full Time Equivalent; headcount data exclude Caripe (385 employees on 30 Sept. 2010).
€/m Personnel Other Administrative Expenses D&A 362 190.4 369 180.2 29.6 38.1 Q3 09 Q3 10 1,081 574.6 1,098 547.1 88.3 113.7 9M 2009 9M 2010 7.1% 1.9%
Appendix 1: 9M 2010 results – Banco Popolare ‘standalone’
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Appendix 1: 9M 2010 results – Banco Popolare Group
Reclassified assets (thousand euro) 30/09/2010 31/12/2009 Chg.
464,917 580,798 (115,881) (20.0%)
11,870,857 11,930,649 (59,792) (0.5%)
174,605 183,526 (8,921) (4.9%)
2,581,548 2,056,466 525,082 25.5%
234,889 306,240 (71,351) (23.3%)
8,205,539 9,566,348 (1,360,809) (14.2%)
96,141,655 95,350,225 791,430 0.8%
283,316 130,758 152,558 116.7%
16,989 7,267 9,722 133.8%
1,632,684 1,637,221 (4,537) (0.3%)
2,307,629 1,442,462 865,167 60.0%
5,173,721 5,294,942 (121,221) (2.3%)
4,407,565 4,474,030 (66,465) (1.5%)
2,571,434 2,358,414 213,020 9.0% a) current 242,941 249,737 (6,796) (2.7%) b) prepaid 2,328,493 2,108,677 219,816 10.4%
2,060,137 1,915,762 144,375 7.5%
2,635,000 2,948,013 (313,013) (10.6%) Total assets 136,354,920 135,709,091 645,829 0.5% Reclassified liabilities (thousand euro) 30/09/2010 31/12/2009
10,094,199 8,420,417 1,673,782 19.9%
49,995,498 53,191,863 (3,196,365) (6.0%)
24,025,916 25,227,520 (1,201,604) (4.8%)
4,254,717 3,878,649 376,068 9.7%
28,058,968 26,763,737 1,295,231 4.8%
210,470 168,456 42,014 24.9%
11,230 41,518 (30,288) (73.0%)
767,204 731,499 35,705 4.9%
a) current
174,767 41,353 133,414 322.6%
b) deferred
592,437 690,146 (97,709) (14.2%)
1,157,488 960,065 197,423 20.6%
4,499,324 2,738,251 1,761,073 64.3%
405,988 415,688 (9,700) (2.3%)
772,646 1,059,216 (286,570) (27.1%)
a) retirement benefits and similar commitments
251,108 244,280 6,828 2.8%
b) other provisions
521,538 814,936 (293,398) (36.0%)
(16,928) 35,720 (52,648) n.s.
1,483,145 1,452,534 30,611 2.1%
2,601,095 2,622,787 (21,692) (0.8%)
4,880,038 4,880,038
2,305,736 2,305,736
(30,944) (31,014) (70) (0.2%)
412,052 579,373 (167,321) (28.9%)
467,078 267,038 200,040 74.9% Total liabilities and Shareholders' Equity 136,354,920 135,709,091 645,829 0.5% Chg.
Includes Caripe
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Reclassified income statement - €/m 9M 2010 9M 2009 9M 2010 9M 2009 Net interest income 1,367.3 1,481.6 1,540.9 1,626.6 Profit (loss) on equity investments carried at equity 31.1 57.4 31.1 57.4 Net interest, dividend and similar income 1,398.5 1,539.0 1,572.1 1,684.0 Net commissions 956.8 877.5 956.8 877.5 Other revenues 46.6 170.4 76.6 10.0 Net financial income 398.3 202.2 404.7 259.3 Other operating income 1,401.7 1,250.1 1,438.1 1,146.8 Total income 2,800.1 2,789.1 3,010.1 2,830.7 Personnel expenses (1,124.6) (1,095.2) (1,124.6) (1,095.2) Other administrative expenses (577.3) (581.5) (577.3) (581.5) Amortization and depreciation (96.5) (116.3) (93.4) (113.2) Operating costs (1,798.4) (1,793.0) (1,795.3) (1,789.9) Profit from operations 1,001.7 996.1 1,214.8 1,040.8 Net write-downs on impairment of loans, guarantees and commitments (608.4) (485.9) (608.4) (485.9) Net write-downs on impairment of other financial transactions (35.2) (16.7) (35.2) (16.7) Net provisions for risks and charges (12.8) (36.0) (12.8) (36.0) Impairment of goodwill and equity investments (0.8) (3.1) (0.8) (3.1) Profit (loss) on disposal of equity and other investments 12.5 115.0 45.9 117.2 Income before tax from continuing operations 357.0 569.5 603.5 616.4 Tax on income from continuing operations 105.7 (230.8) 26.3 (309.1) Income (Loss) after tax from non-current assets held for sale 17.4 (26.5) 43.4 (20.9) Minority interest (12.9) 4.2 (20.3) (10.9) Net income for the period excluding PPA 467.1 316.4 652.9 275.6 PPA impact after tax
40.9 Net income for the period including PPA 467.1 316.4 467.1 316.4 INCLUDING PPA line-by-line EXCLUDING PPA line-by-line
Appendix 1: 9M 2010 results – Banco Popolare Group
The two sets of results are not directly comparable considering that Banca Italease Group is consolidated starting only from 1 July 2009. Of which PPA ex-BPI: (101.5) Of which PPA Italease: (84.4)
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Appendix 1: 9M 2010 results – Banco Popolare Group
9 months 2010
Of which: Pre-tax Post-tax 261.1 176.7
€/m 285.8 285.8
157.8 106.8
Q1 2010 19.3 13.0
6.1 4.0 Q2 2010 239.7 162.2 285.8 285.8
136.0 92.0 Q3 2010 2.1 1.5 +13.6 +9.3 15.7 10.8 Gross cumulative FVO at 30/09/2010 amounts to +€284.8m, of which +€23.7m are the residual part of 2009.
PORTFOLIO
(Income statement item: Income taxes) (Income statement item: Net financial income) (Income statement item: Net financial income)
Total impact on Net Financial Income
Tax credits resulting from the entry of Banca Italease into the consolidated fiscal perimeter of Banco Popolare Group.
Pre-tax Pre-tax Pre-tax Post-tax Post-tax Post-tax
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Reclassified income statement - €/m Accounting data PPA (ex-BPI + BIL) Accounting data excluding PPA Fair Value Option Write-downs
Government securities Deferred tax assets Normalized Income statement excluding Net interest income 1.367,3 (173,6) 1.540,9
Profit (loss) on equity investments carried at equity 31,1 31,1
Net interest, dividend and similar income 1.398,5 (173,6) 1.572,1
Net commissions 956,8 956,8
Other revenues 46,6 (30,0) 76,6
Net financial income 398,3 (6,4) 404,7 261,1 (103,3) 246,9 Other operating income 1.401,7 (36,4) 1.438,1 261,1 (103,3) 1.280,3 Total income 2.800,1 (210,0) 3.010,1 261,1 (103,3) 2.852,3 Personnel expenses (1.124,6) (1.124,6)
Other administrative expenses (577,3) (577,3)
Amortization and depreciation (96,5) (3,0) (93,4)
Operating costs (1.798,4) (3,0) (1.795,3)
Profit from operations 1.001,7 (213,0) 1.214,8 261,1 (103,3) 1.057,0 Net w rite-dow ns on impairment of loans, guarantees and commitments (608,4) (608,4)
Net w rite-dow ns on impairment of other financial transactions (35,2) (35,2)
Net provisions for risks and charges (12,8) (12,8)
Impairment of goodw ill and equity investments (0,8) (0,8)
Profit (loss) on disposal of equity and other investments 12,5 (33,5) 45,9
Income before tax from continuing operations 357,0 (246,5) 603,5 261,1 (103,3) 445,7 Tax on income from continuing operations 105,7 79,4 26,3 (84,4) 33,4 285,8 (208,5) Income (Loss) after tax from non-current assets held for sale 17,4 (26,1) 43,4 43,4 Minority interest (12,9) 7,4 (20,3) (20,3) Net income for the period 467,1 (185,8) 652,9 176,7 (69,9) 285,8 260,3
Appendix 1: 9M 2010 results – Banco Popolare Group
In the fourth quarter of 2010, the PPA impact is expected to be about -€34m. On an annual basis, the PPA impact is expected to decrease to about -€112m in 2011, about -€49m in 2012 and about -€29m in 2013. Relevant P&L impacts detailed on slide 41.
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Reclassified income statement - €/m 9M 2010 9M 2009 % Chg. 9M 2010 9M 2009 % Chg. Net interest income 1,369.2 1,466.8 (6.6%) 1,481.5 1,579.7 (6.2%) Profit (loss) on equity investments carried at equity 35.6 57.4 (38.0%) 35.6 57.4 (38.0%) Net interest, dividend and similar income 1,404.8 1,524.1 (7.8%) 1,517.1 1,637.1 (7.3%) Net commissions 947.5 873.4 8.5% 947.5 873.4 8.5% Other revenues 23.0 (18.5) n.a. 53.0 12.5 324.0% Net financial income 400.2 259.4 54.3% 400.2 259.4 54.3% Other operating income 1,370.8 1,114.3 23.0% 1,400.8 1,145.4 22.3% Total income 2,775.6 2,638.4 5.2% 2,917.9 2,782.5 4.9% Personnel expenses (1,098.4) (1,080.6) 1.6% (1,098.4) (1,080.6) 1.6% Other administrative expenses (547.1) (574.6) (4.8%) (547.1) (574.6) (4.8%) Amortization and depreciation (88.3) (113.7) (22.3%) (85.3) (110.6) (22.9%) Operating costs (1,733.8) (1,768.9) (2.0%) (1,730.8) (1,765.8) (2.0%) Profit from operations 1,041.8 869.6 19.8% 1,187.1 1,016.7 16.8% Net write-downs on impairment of loans, guarantees and commitments (520.0) (436.9) 19.0% (520.0) (436.9) 19.0% Net write-downs on impairment of other financial transactions (35.9) (16.7) 115.5% (35.9) (16.7) 115.5% Net provisions for risks and charges (1.4) (34.7) (96.0%) (1.4) (34.7) (96.0%) Impairment of goodwill and equity investments (0.8) (3.1) (73.4%) (0.8) (3.1) (73.4%) Profit (loss) on disposal of equity and other investments 6.5 113.6 (94.3%) 12.1 115.8 (89.6%) Income before tax from continuing operations 490.1 491.7 (0.3%) 641.1 641.0 0.0% Tax on income from continuing operations (221.4) (262.4) (15.6%) (269.9) (312.0) (13.5%) Income (Loss) after tax from non-current assets held for sale 16.0 (32.1) n.a. 21.7 (26.5) n.a. Minority interest (9.9) (4.9) 102.3% (16.6) (12.6) 32.2% Net income for the period excluding PPA 376.2 290.0 0.3 PPA impact after tax
(97.7) 0.0 Net income for the period including PPA 274.7 192.3 42.9% 274.7 192.3 42.9% Including PPA line-by-line Excluding PPA line-by-line
Appendix 1: 9M 2010 results – Banco Popolare ‘standalone’
first 9 months of 2009 was negatively influenced by the FVO (-€333.3m) and benefited from a capital gain of about €120m deriving from interest rate hedging positions.
2009 results benefited from income from the disposal of equity & other investments for a total of €115.0m, of which €106.5m related to the Eracle real estate Fund.
Memo 2009
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Reclassified income statement - €/m Accounting data PPA (ex-BPI + BIL) Accounting data excluding PPA Fair Value Option Write-downs on Government bonds portfolio Normalized Income statement excluding PPA Net interest income 1,369.2 (112.3) 1,481.5
35.6 35.6
Net interest, dividend and similar income 1,404.8 (112.3) 1,517.1
Net commissions 947.5 947.5
Other revenues 23.0 (30.0) 53.0
Net financial income 400.2 400.2 261.1 (103.3) 242.4 Other operating income 1,370.8 (30.0) 1,400.8 261.1 (103.3) 1,243.0 Total income 2,775.6 (142.3) 2,917.9 261.1 (103.3) 2,760.1 Personnel expenses (1,098.4) (1,098.4)
Other administrative expenses (547.1) (547.1)
Amortization and depreciation (88.3) (3.0) (85.3)
Operating costs (1,733.8) (3.0) (1,730.8)
Profit from operations 1,041.8 (145.3) 1,187.1 261.1 (103.3) 1,029.3 , Net w rite-dow ns on impairment of loans, guarantees and commitments (520.0) (520.0)
Net w rite-dow ns on impairment of other financial transactions (35.9) (35.9)
Net provisions for risks and charges (1.4) (1.4)
Impairment of goodw ill and equity investments (0.8) (0.8)
Profit (loss) on disposal of equity and other investments 6.5 (5.6) 12.1
Income before tax from continuing operations 490.1 (150.9) 641.1 261.1 (103.3) 483.3 Tax on income from continuing operations (221.4) 48.5 (269.9) (84.4) 33.4 (218.9) Income (Loss) after tax from non-current assets held for sale 16.0 (5.7) 21.7
Minority interest (9.9) 6.7 (16.6) (0.1) (16.6) Net income for the period 274.7 (101.5) 376.2 176.6 (69.9) 269.5
Appendix 1: 9M 2010 results – Banco Popolare ‘standalone’
In the fourth quarter of 2010, the PPA impact is expected to be about -€22m. On an annual basis, the PPA impact is expected to decrease to about -€81m in 2011, to about -€33m in 2012 and to about -€21m in 2013. Change in the bank’s
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Appendix 1: 9M 2010 results – Banco Popolare ‘standalone’
Other components 65 39 20
2 Banks of the Territory Efibanca
1,416 1,369
Breakdown of 9M 2010 net interest income
17 1,351
Annual and quarterly trend
9M 09 1,369.2 1,466.7 €/m 9M 10
Q2 10 448.7 Q3 10
442.2
the Territory Foreign banking subsid.+other comp. Parent bank PPA and ex-BPI Accounting and consolid. adjustments Consolidated Group
+€15m lower PPA
€/m
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Appendix 1: 9M 2010 results – Banco Popolare ‘standalone’
Quarterly trend Annual trend
9M 09 1,350.8 1,474.0 €/m 9M 10
Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09
Pro-forma data adjusted for new regulation
Drivers
The NII of customer loans & funds of the Banks of the Territory recorded a decrease of
sharp fall in the liability spread:
+€24.7m
Total customer spread 0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 3.00% 3.50% 4.00% 4.50% Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 530 487 457 442 Q4 09 Q1 10 459
€/m
Q1 10 9m 10/9m 09
Pro-forma data adjusted for new regulation
Q2 10 Q2 10 2.58% 2.46% 2.40% 2.36% 2.54% 2.50% 0.45% 0.24% 0.05% 0.00%
3.03% 2.70% 2.45% 2.36% 2.52% 2.43%
0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 3.00% 3.50% Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dic-09 Mar-10 Jun-10
4.04% 1.75% 0.95% 0.55% 0.45% 0.43% 0.43% 449 Q3 10 443
Sep-10
Q3 10
2.32% 2.33% 0.61% From Q2 onwards, net interest income of the Banks of the Territory includes €8m of interest expenses for the SMCN issued in March 2010.
Quarterly customer spreads
(asset spread adjusted for new regulation on overdraft commissions)
Asset spread Liability spread *Analysis based on the customer funds and customer loans of the Banks of the Territory.
Evolution of one-month Euribor
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9M 2010 9M 2009 % Chg. Q3 10 Q2 10 Q1 10 Asset management 112.1 97.9 14.5% 38.5 38.4 35.3 Bancassurance 151.3 124.5 21.5% 31.9 71.1 48.3 Consumer credit 45.4 48.0
13.2 13.2 19.0 Credit cards and other 33.8 27.2 24.2% 13.6 11.0 9.2 Securities sale and distribution 49.7 43.5 14.2% 34.8 1.5 13.4 Custodian bank 11.2 11.9
3.6 3.8 3.8 Trading activities of branch customers 36.6 39.3
11.3 12.0 13.3 Other 13.7 13.8
4.4 1.3 8.0 Total 453.7 406.0 11.8% 151.3 152.2 150.2 9M 2010 9M 2009 % Chg. Q3 10 Q2 10 Q1 10 Management, brokerage and advisory services 453.7 406.0 11.8% 151.3 152.2 150.2 Management of current accounts and cust. relations 316.0 279.8 12.9% 102.7 109.9 103.4 Payment and collection services 84.0 83.0 1.2% 27.6 28.8 27.7 Guarantees given 45.2 41.5 8.7% 14.3 14.8 16.0 Other services 48.6 63.0
14.8 17.0 16.9 Total 947.5 873.4 8.5% 310.6 322.7 314.2 €/m
Appendix 1: 9M 2010 results – Banco Popolare ‘standalone’
Composition of ‘Management, brokerage and advisory services’
Analysis of Net commission income
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9M 2010 9M 2009 % Chg. Q3 10 Q2 10 Q1 10
299,2 (328,7) n.a. (12,2) 256,0 55,3
261,1 (333,3) n.a. 2,2 239,7 19,3
96,5 572,9 n.a. 143,4 (101,3) 54,5
(103,3)
13,6 (103,7) (13,2)
(eg. Public Exchange Offer on Icelandic index policies) (22,6)
(1,5) (3,5) (17,6)
193,8 202,5
75,5 49,6 68,7
9,4 17,1
3,4 5,1 0,9
(4,8) (1,9) n.a. (9,6) (0,1) 4,9 Net financial income 400,2 259,4 54,3% 125,0 159,7 115,5 Net financial income EXCLUDING credit-worthiness, PEO on Icelandic index policies and write-down on Government bond portfolio. 265,0 592,6
110,7 27,2 127,1
€/m
Appendix 1: 9M 2010 results – Banco Popolare ‘standalone’
Largely replicable core business.
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€/m
362.6 356.1 361.8 383.3 365.1 364.1 369.2 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
Q1 09 +1.6% Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09
10bps in the interest rate used in Q2 2010 for the NPV calculation of the severance fund, corresponding to a cost of +€3m, and an increase in salaries, based on the renewal of the national labour contract, corresponding to about +€24m as at 30 September 2010.
while based on period-end data the decrease was 112. 19,641 19,511
30/09/09 30/09/10 19,588 319 7,386 11,016 867 19,476 319 7,499 10,832
€/m
1,080.6 1,098.4 826 Q1 10
FTE: Full Time Equivalent
Q2 10 Q3 10
9M 09 9M 10
Includes €9m of severance costs.
Appendix 1: 9M 2010 results – Banco Popolare ‘standalone’
Personnel expenses y/y
Headcount FTE (average)
Quarterly evolution
Comments FTE by category
Total Headcount (period-end)
(Non-domestic, training and temporary employment contracts)
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193.0 191.2 190.4 158.9 182.0 184.9 180.2 37.4 38.2 38.1 41.8 36.4 22.3 29.6 100.0 120.0 140.0 160.0 180.0 200.0 220.0 240.0
Appendix 1: 9M 2010 results – Banco Popolare ‘standalone’
€/m
Total non-personnel expenses decrease 7.7% y/y, thanks to:
compared with the same period of 2009.
service activities, which became operational since the beginning of the year.
9M 09 9M 10 574.6 688.3 113.7
574.6 88.3 113.7
547.0 635.3 88.3
9M 09 9M 10 9M 09 9M 10 230.4 229.4 228.5 200.7 218.4 207.2 209.8 Other administrative expenses Amortization & depreciation Total non-personnel expenses Other admin. expenses
Cost reduction VAT
Quarterly evolution Comments
Other administrative expenses Amortization & depreciation €/m
Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10
547.1
Analysis of total non-personnel expenses
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Reclassified income statement - €/m Q3 10 Q2 2010 Q1 2010 Q4 2009 Q3 2009 Q2 2009 Q1 2009 Net interest income 441.0 449.0 477.3 471.7 479.4 491.1 511.1 Profit (loss) on equity investments carried at equity 9.9 8.2 13.0 46.4 20.1 23.7 13.6 Net interest, dividend and similar income 451.0 457.2 490.3 518.1 499.5 514.8 524.6 Net commissions 313.2 326.1 317.4 333.9 292.4 322.4 262.7 Other revenues 16.5 36.2 (6.1) 19.4 173.4 (4.3) 1.3 Net financial income 122.2 162.5 113.6 (14.4) (67.0) (13.9) 283.1 Other operating income 451.9 524.8 424.9 338.9 398.8 304.1 547.2 Total income 902.9 982.0 915.2 857.0 898.3 819.0 1,071.8 Personnel expenses (377.4) (373.2) (374.1) (402.7) (376.4) (356.1) (362.6) Other administrative expenses (188.7) (198.7) (189.9) (179.2) (197.3) (191.2) (193.0) Amortization and depreciation (33.9) (24.4) (38.2) (44.7) (40.7) (38.1) (37.4) Operating costs (600.0) (596.2) (602.1) (626.6) (614.4) (585.5) (593.0) Profit from operations 302.9 385.8 313.1 230.4 283.9 233.5 478.8 Net write-downs on impairment of loans, guarantees and commitments (221.6) (211.1) (175.7) (254.3) (219.5) (136.7) (129.7) Net write-downs on impairment of other financial transactions (8.3) (15.3) (11.7) (15.0) (4.7) (8.8) (3.2) Net provisions for risks and charges 9.8 (24.8) 2.2 (19.5) 12.2 (32.4) (15.8) Impairment of goodwill and equity investments 0.1 (1.0)
0.2 13.6 (1.4) 1.1 13.4 0.8 100.8 Income before tax from continuing operations 83.2 147.2 126.6 (63.3) 85.3 53.3 430.9 Tax on income from continuing operations (38.9) 199.4 (54.8) (9.4) 15.1 (35.7) (210.2) Income (Loss) after tax from non-current assets held for sale (7.1) 14.8 9.7 18.3 3.5 (26.4) (3.6) Minority interest (7.0) (1.5) (4.4) 4.9 8.3 (5.6) 1.5 Net income for the period 30.2 359.8 77.1 (49.4) 112.3 (14.4) 218.6
Appendix 1: 9M 2010 results – Banco Popolare Group
Includes Banca Italease contribution starting from Q3 2009.
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Reclassified income statement - €/m Q3 2010 Q2 2010 Q1 2010 Q4 2009 Q3 2009 Q2 2009 Q1 2009 Net interest income 490.0 515.6 535.3 533.2 547.9 531.2 547.5 Profit (loss) on equity investments carried at equity 9.9 8.2 13.0 46.4 20.1 23.7 13.6 Net interest, dividend and similar income 499.9 523.8 548.3 579.6 568.0 554.9 561.1 Net commissions 313.2 326.1 317.4 333.9 292.4 322.4 262.7 Other revenues 26.6 46.2 3.9 29.9 (8.1) 6.3 11.9 Net financial income 124.9 162.5 117.3 (1.8) (10.0) (13.9) 283.2 Other operating income 464.7 534.7 438.6 361.9 274.2 314.7 557.8 Total income 964.6 1,058.6 986.9 941.5 842.3 869.6 1,118.9 Personnel expenses (377.4) (373.2) (374.1) (402.7) (376.4) (356.1) (362.6) Other administrative expenses (188.7) (198.7) (189.9) (179.2) (197.3) (191.2) (193.0) Amortization and depreciation (32.9) (23.4) (37.2) (50.6) (39.7) (37.1) (36.4) Operating costs (599.0) (595.2) (601.1) (632.5) (613.4) (584.5) (592.0) Profit from operations 365.6 463.4 385.8 309.0 228.9 285.1 526.9 Net write-downs on impairment of loans, guarantees and commitments (221.6) (211.1) (175.7) (254.3) (219.5) (136.7) (129.7) Net write-downs on impairment of other financial transactions (8.3) (15.3) (11.7) (15.0) (4.7) (8.8) (3.2) Net provisions for risks and charges 9.8 (24.8) 2.2 (119.5) 12.2 (32.4) (15.8) Impairment of goodwill and equity investments 0.1 (1.0)
0.2 41.0 4.7 8.7 13.4 2.8 101.0 Income before tax from continuing operations 145.9 252.2 205.4 (74.4) 30.3 106.9 479.2 Tax on income from continuing operations (59.5) 166.5 (80.7) (10.2) (29.4) (53.4) (226.2) Income (Loss) after tax from non-current assets held for sale 14.9 17.1 11.4 20.3 5.3 (24.3) (1.9) Minority interest (7.8) (5.2) (7.2) 8.5 (1.5) (8.3) (1.1) Net income for the period excluding PPA 93.5 430.6 128.9 (55.8) 4.7 21.0 250.0 PPA impact after tax (63.3) (70.8) (51.8) 6.4 107.6 (35.4) (31.4) Net income for the period including PPA 30.2 359.8 77.1 (49.4) 112.3 (14.4) 218.6
Appendix 1: 9M 2010 results – Banco Popolare Group
Includes Banca Italease contribution starting from Q3 2009.
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Reclassified income statement - €/m Q3 10 Q2 2010 Q1 2010 Q4 2009 Q3 2009 Q2 2009 Q1 2009 Net interest income (49.0) (66.6) (58.1) (61.5) (68.5) (40.1) (36.4) Profit (loss) on equity investments carried at equity
(49.0) (66.6) (58.1) (61.5) (68.5) (40.1) (36.4) Net commissions
(10.0) (10.0) (10.0) (10.4) 181.5 (10.5) (10.5) Net financial income (2.7) 0.0 (3.7) (12.5) (57.0)
Other operating income (12.7) (10.0) (13.7) (23.0) 124.5 (10.5) (10.6) Total income (61.7) (76.6) (71.7) (84.4) 56.0 (50.6) (47.0) Personnel expenses
(1.0) (1.0) (1.0) 5.9 (1.0) (1.0) (1.0) Operating costs (1.0) (1.0) (1.0) 5.9 (1.0) (1.0) (1.0) Profit from operations (62.7) (77.6) (72.8) (78.5) 55.0 (51.6) (48.1) Net write-downs on impairment of loans, guarantees and commitments
(6.1) (7.6)
(0.2) Income before tax from continuing operations (62.7) (105.0) (78.8) 11.2 55.0 (53.6) (48.3) Tax on income from continuing operations 20.7 32.8 25.9 0.8 44.5 17.7 16.0 Income (Loss) after tax from non-current assets held for sale (22.1) (2.3) (1.7) (2.0) (1.7) (2.2) (1.7) Minority interest 0.8 3.7 2.9 (3.5) 9.8 2.7 2.6 Net income for the period (63.3) (70.8) (51.8) 6.4 107.6 (35.4) (31.4)
Appendix 1: 9M 2010 results – Banco Popolare Group
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Reclassified income statement - €/m Q3 10 Q2 2010 Q1 2010 Q4 2009 Q3 2009 Q2 2009 Q1 2009 Net interest income 442.2 448.7 478.3 448.0 464.6 491.1 511.1 Profit (loss) on equity investments carried at equity 14.4 8.2 13.0 46.4 20.1 23.7 13.6 Net interest, dividend and similar income 456.6 456.9 491.3 494.4 484.7 514.8 524.6 Net commissions 310.6 322.7 314.2 324.8 288.3 322.4 262.7 Other revenues 1.6 27.2 (5.7) 12.3 (15.6) (4.3) 1.3 Net financial income 125.2 159.7 115.5 10.9 (9.8) (13.9) 283.1 Other operating income 437.3 509.6 424.0 348.0 262.9 304.1 547.2 Total income 893.9 966.5 915.4 842.3 747.6 819.0 1,071.8 Personnel expenses (369.2) (364.1) (365.1) (383.3) (361.8) (356.1) (362.6) Other administrative expenses (180.2) (184.9) (182.0) (158.9) (190.4) (191.2) (193.0) Amortization and depreciation (29.6) (22.3) (36.4) (41.9) (38.1) (38.1) (37.4) Operating costs (579.0) (571.3) (583.5) (584.0) (590.3) (585.5) (593.0) Profit from operations 314.9 395.2 331.8 258.3 157.3 233.5 478.8 Net write-downs on impairment of loans, guarantees and commitments (178.0) (190.8) (151.4) (228.2) (170.6) (136.7) (129.7) Net write-downs on impairment of other financial transactions (8.6) (15.6) (11.7) (15.0) (4.7) (8.8) (3.2) Net provisions for risks and charges (0.4) (2.0) 1.1 (14.9) 13.5 (32.4) (15.8) Impairment of goodwill and equity investments 0.1 (1.0)
(0.0) 6.3 0.1 1.0 12.0 0.8 100.8 Income before tax from continuing operations 128.0 192.1 170.0 (4.9) 7.5 53.3 430.9 Tax on income from continuing operations (54.4) (94.3) (72.8) 0.4 (16.6) (35.7) (210.2) Income (Loss) after tax from non-current assets held for sale (2.5) 11.3 7.2 16.0 (2.1) (26.4) (3.6) Minority interest (5.4) (0.5) (4.1) (1.5) (0.8) (5.6) 1.5 Net income for the period 65.8 108.6 100.4 10.1 (11.9) (14.4) 218.6
Appendix 1: 9M 2010 results – Banco Popolare ‘standalone’
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Reclassified income statement - €/m Q3 10 Q2 2010 Q1 2010 Q4 2009 Q3 2009 Q2 2009 Q1 2009 Net interest income (30.4) (46.6) (35.3) (32.7) (36.5) (40.1) (36.4) Profit (loss) on equity investments carried at equity
(30.4) (46.6) (35.3) (32.7) (36.5) (40.1) (36.4) Net commissions
(10.0) (10.0) (10.0) (10.4) (9.9) (10.5) (10.5) Net financial income
Other operating income (10.0) (10.0) (10.0) (10.4) (9.9) (10.5) (10.6) Total income (40.4) (56.6) (45.3) (43.2) (46.4) (50.6) (47.0) Personnel expenses
(1.0) (1.0) (1.0) (1.1) (1.0) (1.0) (1.0) Operating costs (1.0) (1.0) (1.0) (1.1) (1.0) (1.0) (1.0) Profit from operations (41.4) (57.6) (46.3) (44.3) (47.5) (51.6) (48.1) Net w rite-dow ns on impairment of loans, guarantees and commitments
(0.9) (0.4)
(0.2) Income before tax from continuing operations (41.4) (62.3) (47.2) (47.3) (47.5) (53.6) (48.3) Tax on income from continuing operations 13.8 19.1 15.6 14.9 15.8 17.7 16.0 Income (Loss) after tax from non-current assets held for sale (1.7) (2.3) (1.7) (1.6) (1.7) (2.2) (1.7) Minority interest 0.3 3.8 2.6 2.3 2.4 2.7 2.6 Net income for the period (29.1) (41.7) (30.7) (31.7) (31.0) (35.4) (31.4)
Appendix 1: 9M 2010 results – Banco Popolare ‘standalone’
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Reclassified income statement - €/m Q3 10 Q2 2010 Q1 2010 Q4 2009 Q3 2009 Q2 2009 Q1 2009 Net interest income 472.6 495.3 513.6 480.8 501.1 531.2 547.5 Profit (loss) on equity investments carried at equity 14.4 8.2 13.0 46.4 20.1 23.7 13.6 Net interest, dividend and similar income 487.0 503.5 526.6 527.1 521.2 554.9 561.1 Net commissions 310.6 322.7 314.2 324.8 288.3 322.4 262.7 Other revenues 11.6 37.2 4.3 22.7 (5.6) 6.3 11.9 Net financial income 125.0 159.7 115.5 10.9 (9.8) (13.9) 283.2 Other operating income 447.2 519.6 434.0 358.4 272.9 314.7 557.8 Total income 934.2 1,023.1 960.6 885.5 794.0 869.6 1,118.9 Personnel expenses (369.2) (364.1) (365.1) (383.3) (361.8) (356.1) (362.6) Other administrative expenses (180.2) (184.9) (182.0) (158.9) (190.4) (191.2) (193.0) Amortization and depreciation (28.6) (21.3) (35.4) (40.7) (37.1) (37.1) (36.4) Operating costs (578.0) (570.3) (582.5) (582.9) (589.3) (584.5) (592.0) Profit from operations 356.2 452.8 378.1 302.6 204.8 285.1 526.9 Net write-downs on impairment of loans, guarantees and commitments (177.8) (190.8) (151.4) (228.2) (170.6) (136.7) (129.7) Net write-downs on impairment of other financial transactions (8.6) (15.6) (11.7) (15.0) (4.7) (8.8) (3.2) Net provisions for risks and charges (0.4) (2.0) 1.1 (14.9) 13.5 (32.4) (15.8) Impairment of goodwill and equity investments 0.1 (1.0)
(0.0) 11.1 1.1 1.3 12.0 2.8 101.0 Income before tax from continuing operations 169.5 254.4 217.2 42.5 55.0 106.9 479.2 Tax on income from continuing operations (68.2) (113.4) (88.4) (14.5) (32.3) (53.4) (226.2) Income (Loss) after tax from non-current assets held for sale (0.8) 13.6 8.9 17.7 (0.3) (24.3) (1.9) Minority interest (5.7) (4.4) (6.6) (3.8) (3.2) (8.3) (1.1) Net income for the period excluding PPA 94.9 150.3 131.1 41.8 19.1 21.0 250.0 PPA impact after tax (29.1) (41.7) (30.7) (31.7) (31.0) (35.4) (31.4) Net income for the period including PPA 65.8 108.6 100.4 10.1 (11.9) (14.4) 218.6
Appendix 1: 9M 2010 results – Banco Popolare ‘standalone’
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Purchase Price Allocation – general considerations The PPA (Purchase Price Allocation) is the allocation of the purchase price of business to assets and liabilities at fair value. The goodwill acquired is initially recognized at cost, measured as the excess of the cost of acquisition over the Group’s interest in the net fair values of identifiable asset and liabilities. When goodwill is part of a cash-generating unit, goodwill associated with the sold assets is included in the accounting value of the assets to measure the profit or loss on the sale. Goodwill is tested (impairment test) any time there is evidence of impairment, and in any case at least once a year. The impairment amount is calculated based on the difference between the goodwill’s carrying amount and its recoverable amount, if lower. The Purchase Price Allocation arose both in the business combination of Gruppo Banca Italease and in that of ex-Banca Popolare Italiana. In the nine months of 2010, the P&L impacts related to both combinations amounted to a total of -185.8m, of which -€84.4m for Banca Italease and -€101.5m for ex- Banca Popolare Italiana, as further detailed in the following two slides. Going forward, the total PPA impact for the Group is expected to decrease significantly: on an annual basis, it is expected to fall to about -€107m in 2011, to about -€47m in 2012 and to about -€27m in 2013, gradually petering out thereafter.
Appendix 1: 9M 2010 results
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P&L impacts caused by the Purchase Price Allocation of the business combination of Gruppo Banca Italease
Upon preparing the annual report as at 31st December 2009, the purchase price allocation (so called PPA) of Banca Italease and of its subsidiaries has been completed and therefore finalized. As of 1 July 2009, possible P&L impacts started to be measured, caused by the realignment of assets and liabilities of Banca Italease and its subsidiaries recognized in the consolidated financial statement at fair value (reversal effects). Illustrated below are the impacts generated by the recognition of write-downs of results reported by Banca Italease and its subsidiaries in the first nine months of 2010 owing to the different values posted in the consolidated financial statements at the effectiveness date of the business combination upon adopting the accounting standard IFRS 3. Net interest income: the P&L impact was -61.3 million as at 30 September 2010 (-18.5 million in Q3) as compared with –32.0 million reported on 30 September 2009, and is attributable to the lower value recognized to financial liabilities issued by Banca Italease during the business combination upon allocating the purchase price. The negative impact is due to the consequent addition of interest expense recognized by Banca Italease against the above financial liabilities for the portion that was not repurchased after 1 July 2009. Other operating income: this item reports no impact in the first nine months of financial year 2010. On 30 September 2009 this item included the positive impact generated by the initial PPA recognition totaling +191.5 million. Net financial income: the P&L impact was -6.4 million on 30 September 2010 (-2.7 million in third quarter) with respect to -57.0 million reported on 30 September 2009, again attributable to the lower value recognized to financial liabilities issued by Banca Italease during the business combination upon allocating the purchase price. The negative impact was produced by the repurchase of said financial liabilities carried out in the first nine months of the year. Profit from disposal of investments: the P&L impact was -27.9 million on 30 September 2010 (unchanged with respect to 30 June 2010) and was caused by the disposal by Banca Italease in the first half-year of property that upon allocating the purchase price had been recognized at a value greater than its book value. No disposals of property revalued upon PPA had been finalized in the first nine months of 2009. Profit/(loss) after tax from discontinued operations: the P&L impact was -20.3 million on 30 September 2010 and was generated by the finalization in Q3 of the sale of Factorit S.p.A. by Banca Italease. The impact resulted from the greater value that had been recognized to the company upon PPA as compared with its book value reported in Banca Italease’s consolidated financial statements on 1 July 2009. In the first nine months of 2009 no P&L impacts connected with this item were reported. As a result, the following P&L impacts were reported in the first nine months of the year:
The overall effect on the consolidated net income in the first nine months of 2010 came in at - 84.4 million (-34.2 million in third quarter 2010). In the first nine months of the prior year PPA had instead made a positive contribution totaling + 138.6 million.
Appendix 1: 9M 2010 results
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P&L impacts caused by the Purchase Price Allocation of the business combination of Gruppo Banca Popolare Italiana In keeping with the relevant international accounting standard (IFRS 3), the income statement of Gruppo Banco Popolare includes the economic impacts from the Purchase Price Allocation – PPA under IFRS 3 relating to both the full financial year 2009 and the first nine months of 2010. For the sake of a like-to-like comparison, please note that PPA impacts can be significantly different in the period under comparison. For a full and transparent disclosure, shown below are the impacts deriving from the recognition of profit adjustments reported by the income generation units acquired by Gruppo Banca Popolare Italiana due to the higher values recognized in the consolidated financial statements on the date of effectiveness of the merger as a result of applying the accounting standard IFRS 3. Net interest income: the P&L impact on 30 September 2010 was -112.3 million (-30.4 million in Q3) and -113.0 million on 30 September 2009, and is mainly attributable to the greater value recognized during PPA to loans acquired under the merger. Other operating income: the P&L impact on 30 September 2010 was -30.0 million (-10.0 million in Q3) and -31.0 million on 30 September 2009, and is represented by the amortization of intangible assets having a defined useful life recognized upon the PPA. As a result, the following P&L impacts were reported in the first nine months of 2010: net interest and other banking income:-142.3 million (-40.4 million in Q3) with respect to -144.1 million on 30 September 2009; profit from operations: -145.3 million (-41.4 million in Q3) with respect to – 147.1 million on 30 September 2009; income/loss before tax: -150.9 million (-41.4 million in Q3) with respect to – 149.3 million on 30 September 2009; income tax: +48.5 million (+13.8 million in Q3) with respect to +49.5 million on 30 September 2009; loss from discontinued operations: -5.7 million on 30 September 2010 (-1.7 million in Q3) with respect to -5.6 million on 30 September 2009; minority interest: +6.7 million (+0.3 million in Q3) with respect to +7.7 million on 30 September 2009. The overall effect on the net consolidated income came in at -101.5 million on 30 September 2010 (-29.1 million in Q3) with respect to -97.7 million in the first nine months of the prior year.
Appendix 1: 9M 2010 results
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Sources: ECB, Bank of Italy, Agenzia del territorio, Bank of Ireland, NVM, Banca d’Italia, Bank of Greece, INE Portugal
… partly in response to low interest rates Market recovering at good pace in 2010 … with low debt/equity ratio Small than the average Italian mortgage market
217 244 265 280 343 264 26.6 17.4 6.2 (0.4) 8.7 12.5 100 200 300 400 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Jun-10 (5) 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Stock (€bn) Annual growth (%) (€bn) (%) Stocks as at 30 September 2010 (€bn) 347 753 965 661 200 400 600 800 1,000 Italy France Germany Spain (€bn) Mortgage debt/GDP as at 31 December 2009 18.4 37.5 38.4 62.5 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Italy France Germany Spain (%)
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Sources: ECB, data as of February 2011
Italy’s leverage steadily below European peers ratios
Appendix 2: The Italian Mortgage Market
Corporate loans/GDP Total loans/GDP Consumer credit/GDP Loans for house purchase/GDP 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Italia Euro Area 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Italy Euro area 0% 15% 30% 45% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Italy Euro area 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Italy Euro area
86
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Sources: Osservatorio Assofin
Most mortgages were floaters: only during 2008 the uptake of fixed rate mortgages increased The size of mortgage loans has been moderately rising over the years Until 2008, the indirect channel has gradually gained importance, but since 2009 it has significantly lost importance In 2009, also because of diminishing interest rates lenders have gradually reduced the mortgage tenor
23 22 23 24 19 52 52 51 51 21 16 19 18 18 12 4 4 4 3 6 5 3 4 4 4 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2006 2007 2008 2009 1H10 <=50 51–100 101–200 201–500 >=500 (€m) 64 39 18 48 73 15 9 10 14 14 21 52 72 38 13 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2006 2007 2008 2009 1H10 Fixed rate Floating rate Mixed rate 13 12 12 13 13 22 21 21 22 21 23 17 18 19 21 35 43 43 38 38 7 7 6 8 7 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2006 2007 2008 2009 1H10 <= 10 11–15 16–20 21–25 >=26 (Years) 40 40 42 31 28 60 60 58 69 72 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2006 2007 2008 2009 1H10 Direct channel Indirect channel
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Sources: Prometeia, CRIF, ABI, ISVAP
Italy’s macroeconomic overview Credit quality for mortgage loans is slightly improving Mortgage loans have started to recover with a 6.5% increase YTD
5 10 15 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 YTD 2011E
Mortgage loans (%)
1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 2007 2008 2009 2010 YTD 2011E
Bad loan ratio for mortgage loans (%) Indirect deposits Direct deposits Loans Unemployment rate Inflation rate GDP (%) 4.8 4.2 2.2 5.0 8.4 7.3 6.0 4.3 3.9 10.4 9.0 7.8 1.6 1.7 0.8 1.1 1.3 (5.1) 2011E 2010E 2009
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Source: EMF
Europe: nominal house prices y-o-y growth rates Europe: nominal house price index
35.82 Switzerland
% Change in housing prices
20.05 Ireland 38.16 Netherlands 64.83 Denmark Greece France Italy Sweden Spain UK Last 10 years 77.36 74.66 67.42 100.37 105.47 107.23 (%)
Since the late 90’s, property units on the Italian property markets have increased constantly without any significant volatility Since 2004 there have been some signs of deceleration in the dynamic of prices per square meter According to the ECB, 2009 saw a slight decrease in residential property prices (-0.5%) The hypothesis of a fall in prices for residential property units is improbable according to the majority of operators in the sector for the following reasons: Firstly, although there has been a significant increase in property values in Italy since 1997, it is among the lowest in the international context and this would seem to exclude the existence
Secondly there is no excess of supply over demand in Italy partly because of the scarcity of public sector social housing Thirdly the ANCE (national association of property builders) has underlined that there has been an increase in refurbishment work in recent years, a circumstance which confirms the need to capitalise on the existing supply; Low interest rates are supportive
house purchases
Source: Global Property Guide, EMF
Over years, house prices in Italy show a more stable trend in comparison to other European countries
10 20 30 40 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Belgium France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Netherlands Spain Sweden UK 50 100 150 200 250 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Belgium France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Netherlands Spain Sweden UK
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