ACTIVE DEMAND MANAGEMENT IN THE 2019-2021 PLAN EEAC WORKSHOP EEAC - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

ACTIVE DEMAND MANAGEMENT IN THE 2019-2021 PLAN – EEAC WORKSHOP

EEAC Consultant Team January 30, 2018

www.ma-eeac.org

INTRODUCTION

►The Green Communities Act directs administrators

• f energy efficiency plans to meet “electric and

natural gas resource needs… first… through all available energy efficiency and demand reduction resources that are cost effective or less expensive than supply [emphasis added].”

►EE programs reduce energy demand – passive

demand reduction

►Opportunities also exist to reduce energy demand

using active demand management

| 2

www.ma-eeac.org

WHAT IS ACTIVE DEMAND MANAGEMENT (ADM)?

►Active Demand Management (ADM) refers to the

dynamic management of end-use customers’ energy demand using information, incentives, and technology. ADM products and services, which in recent years have been enabled by advances in technology and automation, can include, among other things:

• Direct load control
• Traditional and “new” demand response (DR)
• Behind the meter (BTM) battery storage
• Thermal storage

►ADM can be used for load shedding (peak demand

reduction) and also for load shifting

►Run through next four slides for some ADM examples

| 3

4

2016-2018 Demand Demonstrations – Some Examples of ADM

PA Residential C&I Small Mid Large National Grid  WiFi Tstat DLC (Central A/C)  WiFi Tstat DLC  WiFi Tstat DLC  Interruptible load approaches Eversource  EMS  Lighting/HVAC controls  WiFi Tstat DLC  Software & Controls  Onsite training  Process audits  Batteries  Thermal storage  Software & Controls  On-site training  Process audits  Real time info  Batteries  Thermal storage  Demand response CLC  WiFi Tstat DLC (Central A/C)  Behavioral  DLC on DMSHP  BTM thermal storage  BTM thermal storage Unitil

• Battery

Storage for existing solar PV systems  Operations Changes to Reduce Demand (Not Approved)

Key DLC – Direct Load Control DMSHP – Ductless Mini-Split Heat Pumps BTM – Behind the Meter EMS – Energy Management System

• Black Text – 2016 Projects that have been evaluated and will continue in 2017 and 2018.
• Blue Text – Approved 2017 and 2018 projects.
• Red Text – New Demonstrations approved on October 30, 2017 – Timeline for each Demo is

Pending

• Green Text – Proposed Demonstrations pending before Department

• National Grid DR Demonstration Offering in 2016-2018 Plan

– Residential demonstration with a target of 2.6 MW of peak demand reduction – C&I demonstration with a target of 41 MW of peak demand reduction

5

National Grid Demand Demonstrations

Commercial and Industrial Customers

“Performance Based” – Customer Incentive of about $35 per kW per Year “Pay for Connected Device” – Customer Incentive of about $30 per Thermostat per Year

Residential and Small Commercial Customers

Baseline During Event Curtailment

Morning Noon Night

Honeywell ecobee Nest

Supported devices so far

www.ma-eeac.org

FUTURE OF SOFTWARE & CONTROLS – VALUE TO CUSTOMERS

| 6

Source: Alex Do, Acuity Brands; presentation at Design Lights Consortium Stakeholder Meeting, July 2017 (Several people have used the 3/30/300 framing of customer value)

www.ma-eeac.org

EXAMPLES OF END USES AND ENABLING TECHNOLOGIES (CA)

| 7

Source: 2025 California Demand Response Potential Study, LBL, May 2017

www.ma-eeac.org

ADM EXAMPLES FOR MA – TWO PRIORITIES

►Software and controls − ADM enabling technology with LED lighting and integrated controls − Lighting tuned to maximize productivity and provide ADM − Could reduce lighting load by ~10% when needed/valuable ►Automation and agreements with customers − NV Energy Example

• NV Energy engaged customers via thermostats for HVAC
• In 2017, > 60 DR direct load control “events,” some not at peak
• Not much customer override due to automation

− National Grid thermostat DLC demonstration is similar

• More “events” and > 100 hours of active demand

management using automation and customer agreements

| 8

www.ma-eeac.org

HOW CAN ADM BE USED, FOR WHICH OBJECTIVES, AND WHAT VALUES?

| 9

Source: 2025 California Demand Response Potential Study, LBL, May 2017

ADM Service Types Across Timescales and Objectives to Meet Grid Needs

www.ma-eeac.org

CONSULTANT RECOMMENDATIONS FOR ADM IN 2019-2021 PLAN

Recommendation: Include goals specific to active demand management and integrate the delivery of active demand management offerings within the EE programs in the 2019-2021 Plan.

• 1. Move beyond the current demand demonstrations and scale up

ADM activities fully in the 2019-2021 Plan, including claiming demand savings and quantifying impacts.

• 2. Integrate the delivery of ADM offerings with energy efficiency

program delivery.

• 3. Develop a goal for ADM that is separate and distinct from goals

for traditional EE/passive demand reduction. Plan, track, and report the capabilities, performance, and costs of active demand management separately and in a manner that will enable development of and tracking towards the ADM goal.

| 10

www.ma-eeac.org

OPTIONS FOR QUANTIFYING AND MEASURING ADM IMPACTS

Consultants suggest using an ADM goal quantity that considers both volume and time – therefore consider options 2, 3, or 4.

| 11

Option Considerations

• 1. Megawatts (MWs) of peak

demand management Would not capture time or duration of performance.

• 2. MWs in specified

performance hours Limited to one set of performance hours that would need to be determined.

• 3. MWs for a set duration

Often used to rate battery storage. All ADM resources would have to assume or convert to the same duration.

• 4. MWh as an aggregate of

MW reduction MWhs can measure the total combined volume and time

• f ADM. Still need to know in which hours ADM performs.

Thank you!

| 12

Appendix

| 13

www.ma-eeac.org

ADM BENEFITS AND COST- EFFECTIVENESS

►In addition to an active demand management

performance goal, the economic benefits of active demand management activities will be analyzed and quantified, and the planned and achieved benefits will be reported as part of total portfolio benefits.

| 14

ADM Performance Goal(s) ADM Economic Value Quantified in Benefits and Cost‐Effectiveness ADM Costs and Impacts Reported in Data Tables and MassSaveData

15

Diagram of Benefits & Costs – Large C&I Load Curtailment (NGrid)

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0%

%

Avoided Energy ($/kWh) Avoided Energy DRIPE ($/kWh) Avoided Tx ($/KW‐yr) Avoided Dx ($/KW‐yr) Avoided Capacity ($/KW‐yr)

C&I Avoided Cost Benefit Proportions

Costs of Generating, Transmitting, and Distributing Energy

Customer

Vendor National Grid

Distribution System Transmission System Generation

DR Cost‐Effectiveness Example 20.6 MW of C&I Load Curtailment DR for 4 summer hours in 2017

STAT, PPA & Marketing Vendors Incentives Staff Marketing Planning

BCR = 2.30

Changes to Ops Loss of Productivity Overtime System Config. Savings & Benefits ‐ flow back to the system

Other Potential Benefit Streams ‐ Reduced Cost Allocation to MA ‐ Reliability

Estimate ‐ Not Actuals DR Resource ‐ Load Curtailed 20600 KW Hours available 4 hrs Avoided Cost Benefit $/unit Benefit Value Avoided Energy ($/kWh) 0.098 $ 8,075.20 $ Avoided Energy DRIPE ($/kW 0.06 $ 4,779.20 $ Avoided Capacity ($/KW‐yr) 76.95 $ 1,585,067.00 $ Avoided Tx ($/KW‐yr) 10.74 $ 221,244.00 $ Avoided Dx ($/KW‐yr) 84.30 $ 1,736,580.00 $ Total Benefit 3,555,745.40 $ Estimate ‐ Not Actuals DR Resource ‐ Load Curtailed 20600 KW Hours available 4 hrs Cost to Deliver From Summer 2017 75.00 $ $/KW‐yr From Plan $157.07 $/KW‐yr FCA 8 (2017‐18) $84.30 $/KW‐yr Total Cost to Deliver 1,545,000.00 $

Avoided Tx ($10.74/KW‐yr) Avoided Energy ($0.098/kWh) Avoided Energy DRIPE ($0.06/kWh) Avoided Capacity ($76.95/KW‐yr Avoided Dx ($84.30/KW‐yr) Customer Costs Implementation Costs

www.ma-eeac.org

CAPACITY AVOIDED COSTS ARE CRUCIAL FOR ADM BENEFITS

►Active demand management measures operate for a

small number of hours (often less than 1% of all hours, or less than 88 hours a year)

− Therefore, even very significant changes in avoided peak energy costs may have a relatively small effect ►Capacity, transmission, & distribution avoided costs

matter most; to be calculated in the 2018 AESC study

− Resources bid into the Forward Capacity Market (FCM) − Resources not bid into the FCM, but would affect the Installed Capacity Requirement (ICR) and future forecasts ►New ISO-NE market rules for 2018 to be considered − Pay for Performance (PFP); energy-market-only bidding ►Capacity price effects (DRIPE) also important − Capacity DRIPE avoided costs are likely to increase (above the ~0 value in 2015 AESC) based on recent data

| 16

www.ma-eeac.org

ISO-NE FORECASTS OF SUMMER AND WINTER PEAK DEMAND

| 17

www.ma-eeac.org

PASSIVE DEMAND REDUCTIONS FROM THE 2016-2018 EE PROGRAMS

| 18

192 193 192 245 144

50 100 150 200 250 300 2016 2017 2018 MW

MA Summer Capacity Savings Delivered by Energy Efficiency Programs (MW)

Planned Actual

Through Q3

The PAs plan to deliver 577 MW of passive demand reductions through the energy efficiency programs per the 2016‐2018 Plan.