2017 YEAR-END/Q4 INITIAL RESULTS EEAC Consultants February 28, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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2017 YEAR-END/Q4 INITIAL RESULTS EEAC Consultants February 28, 2018 INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY HIGHLIGHTS This presentation summarizes EEAC consultant team analysis of 2017 Initial Year-End/Q4 results* Key 2017 highlights:

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2017 YEAR-END/Q4 INITIAL RESULTS

EEAC Consultants

►February 28, 2018

SLIDE 2

www.ma-eeac.org 2017 Year-End/Q4 Results

INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY HIGHLIGHTS

►This presentation summarizes EEAC consultant team

analysis of 2017 Initial Year-End/Q4 results*

►Key 2017 highlights: − Electric and gas programs both exceeded the benefits goals − Programs exceeded ambitious statewide electric savings goals and got close to achieving statewide gas goals − Elec. lifetime savings higher than Plan and higher than 2016 − Higher electric lifetime savings in C&I and low income compensate for slightly lower-than-Plan Residential savings − Gas lifetime savings slightly lower than Plan 2 years in a row − Electric and gas program spending are both lower than Plan − Less-than-Plan spending is partly due to too-high Plan costs − Exploration of total energy impacts using MMBTUs (all-in energy impacts in 2017)

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*Presentation follows the PA presentation on 2017 results (please see the PA slides for that summary)

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www.ma-eeac.org 2017 Year-End/Q4 Results

SUMMARY OF 2017 YEAR-END/Q4 SAVINGS, BENEFITS, AND COSTS

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Electric Portfolio Amount Percent of Goal Annual Savings (MWh) 1,574,249 115% Lifetime Savings (MWh) 14,163,025 106% Summer (kW) 228,530 118% Benefits ($) $2,117,290,650 102% Expenditures ($) $529,191,850 85% Gas Portfolio Amount Percent of Goal Annual Savings (Therms) 26,621,107 93% Lifetime Savings (Therms) 368,345,795 97% Benefits ($) $572,111,131 105% Expenditures ($) $205,089,544 92%

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www.ma-eeac.org 2017 Year-End/Q4 Results

MOST BENEFITS WERE HIGHER THAN PLANNED IN 2017

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‐ 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 Total Benefits Electric Benefits Non‐Resource Benefits Gas Benefits Other Resource Benefits $ Millions

2017 Electric and Gas Program Benefits ($ Millions)

Planned Q4 2017

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www.ma-eeac.org 2017 Year-End/Q4 Results

Q4 2017 LIFETIME ELECTRIC SAVINGS BY PA

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CLC Eversource National Grid Unitil Total Goal (MWh) 551,223 6,921,944 5,855,737 92,568 13,421,472 Residential 201,747 1,803,115 2,455,409 14,797 4,475,067 Low Income 18,219 140,373 179,727 2,558 340,877 Commercial 331,257 4,978,456 3,220,601 75,214 8,605,529 Q4 2017 (MWh) 415,146 7,164,299 6,515,226 68,354 14,163,025 Residential 244,093 1,706,133 2,412,894 17,296 4,380,416 Low Income 17,118 182,872 217,313 1,424 418,727 Commercial 153,935 5,275,294 3,885,018 49,634 9,363,881 % of Goal 75% 104% 111% 74% 106% Residential 121% 95% 98% 117% 98% Low Income 94% 130% 121% 56% 123% Commercial 46% 106% 121% 66% 109%

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www.ma-eeac.org 2017 Year-End/Q4 Results

Q4 2017 LIFETIME GAS SAVINGS BY PA

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Berkshire Columbia Eversource Liberty National Grid Unitil Goal (Therms) 8,767,313 72,311,764 88,703,021 6,171,632 200,605,484 4,247,602 Residential 3,024,132 37,994,448 32,607,267 3,219,280 103,475,602 1,290,695 Low Income 788,995 7,304,702 7,180,499 724,936 24,472,280 432,211 Commercial 4,954,186 27,012,615 48,915,254 2,227,415 72,657,601 2,524,696 Q4 2017 (Therms) 5,877,061 57,323,979 91,060,498 6,249,826 204,576,346 3,258,084 Residential 2,455,360 37,481,735 31,499,599 3,541,016 97,402,045 723,416 Low Income 841,512 7,187,148 7,833,634 566,102 29,087,380 512,678 Commercial 2,580,189 12,655,096 51,727,265 2,142,708 78,086,921 2,021,990 % of Goal 67% 79% 103% 101% 102% 77% Residential 81% 99% 97% 110% 94% 56% Low Income 107% 98% 109% 78% 119% 119% Commercial 52% 47% 106% 96% 107% 80%

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www.ma-eeac.org 2017 Year-End/Q4 Results

2017 Q4 ELECTRIC SUMMARY: 2017 ANNUAL RESULTS (12/12 MONTHS)

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133% 84% 154% 143% 98% 95% 117% 94% 132% 114% 123% 126% 82% 84% 92% 92% 109% 106% 132% 85% 118% 115% 106% 102% Participants Program Costs Capacity Savings Annual Energy Savings Lifetime Energy Savings Benefits Residential Low‐Income Commercial & Industrial Total

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www.ma-eeac.org 2017 Year-End/Q4 Results

2017 PROGRAMS ACHIEVED HIGHEST ANNUAL SAVINGS

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‐ 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 1,800,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 MWh

Portfolio Annual Electric Savings

Evaluated‐Portfolio Planned‐Portfolio Q4 2017‐Portfolio 2.93%

f Sales

3.36%

f Sales

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www.ma-eeac.org 2017 Year-End/Q4 Results

PORTFOLIO LIFETIME ELECTRIC SAVINGS OVER TIME

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‐ 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 10,000,000 12,000,000 14,000,000 16,000,000 18,000,000 20,000,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 MWh

Portfolio Lifetime Electric Savings

Evaluated‐Portfolio Planned‐Portfolio Q4 2017‐Portfolio

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www.ma-eeac.org 2017 Year-End/Q4 Results

‐ 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 10,000,000 12,000,000 14,000,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 MWh

Lifetime Electric Savings by Sector

Evaluated‐C&I Planned‐C&I Q4 2017‐C&I Evaluated‐Residential Planned‐Residential Q4 2017‐Residential Evaluated‐Low‐Income Planned‐Low‐Income Q4 2017‐Low‐Income

PORTFOLIO LIFETIME ELECTRIC SAVINGS OVER TIME BY SECTOR

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www.ma-eeac.org 2017 Year-End/Q4 Results

CHP SA VINGS AND SHARE OF C&I SECTOR V ARIES GREA TL Y; CHP HIGHER IN 2017 VS 2016

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4% 39% 10% 16% 1% 32% 15% 26% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 4,000,000 4,500,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

% of C&I Sector Savings Net Lifetime MWh Achieved Savings % of C&I Sector Lifetime Savings

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www.ma-eeac.org 2017 Year-End/Q4 Results

PORTFOLIO LIFETIME ELECTRIC COST TO ACHIEVE OVER TIME

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$0.015 $0.020 $0.025 $0.030 $0.035 $0.040 $0.045 $0.050

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

$/kWh

Portfolio Lifetime Electric Cost to Achieve

Evaluated‐Portfolio Planned‐Portfolio Q4 2017‐Portfolio

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www.ma-eeac.org 2017 Year-End/Q4 Results

ELECTRIC COST TO ACHIEVE: CONSULTANT RECOMMENDATION

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$0.015 $0.020 $0.025 $0.030 $0.035 $0.040 $0.045 $0.050 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 $/kWh

Portfolio Lifetime Electric Cost to Achieve

Evaluated‐Portfolio Planned‐Portfolio Q4 2017‐Portfolio Consultant Estimate

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www.ma-eeac.org 2017 Year-End/Q4 Results

PORTFOLIO LIFETIME ELECTRIC PROGRAM SAVINGS IN MMBTU

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‐ 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000 30,000,000 35,000,000 40,000,000 45,000,000 50,000,000 2016 2017 (Q4) MMBtu

Portfolio Electric Program Lifetime Savings in MMBtu

Planned Actual

99% 88%

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www.ma-eeac.org 2017 Year-End/Q4 Results

2017 Q4 RESIDENTIAL LIFETIME ELECTRIC PROGRAM SAVINGS IN MMBTU

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5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000 Electric Savings Reduced Fossil Fuel Usage Increased Fossil Fuel Usage Net Total MMBtu

2017 Residential Electric Lifetime Program Net MMBtu

Natural Gas Fuel Oil Propane

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www.ma-eeac.org 2017 Year-End/Q4 Results

2017 Q4 PORTFOLIO LIFETIME ELECTRIC PROGRAM SAVINGS IN MMBTU

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10,000,000 20,000,000 30,000,000 40,000,000 50,000,000 60,000,000 Electric Savings Reduced Fossil Fuel Usage Increased Fossil Fuel Usage Net Total MMBtu

2017 Portfolio Lifetime Electric Program Net MMBtu

Additional effects: C&I Gas (w/CHP) C&I Fuel Oil

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www.ma-eeac.org 2017 Year-End/Q4 Results

2017 Q4 GAS SUMMARY: 2017 ANNUAL RESULTS (12/12 MONTHS)

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105% 88% 91% 95% 105% 120% 101% 110% 113% 119% 71% 98% 93% 94% 97% 105% 92% 93% 97% 105%

Participants Program Costs Annual Energy Savings Lifetime Energy Savings Benefits Residential Low‐Income Commercial & Industrial Total

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www.ma-eeac.org 2017 Year-End/Q4 Results

PORTFOLIO LIFETIME GAS SAVINGS OVER TIME

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‐ 50,000,000 100,000,000 150,000,000 200,000,000 250,000,000 300,000,000 350,000,000 400,000,000 450,000,000 Therms

Portfolio Lifetime Gas Savings

Evaluated‐Portfolio Planned‐Portfolio Q4 2017‐Portfolio

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www.ma-eeac.org 2017 Year-End/Q4 Results

PORTFOLIO LIFETIME GAS SAVINGS OVER TIME BY SECTOR

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‐ 20,000,000 40,000,000 60,000,000 80,000,000 100,000,000 120,000,000 140,000,000 160,000,000 180,000,000 200,000,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Therms

Lifetime Gas Savings by Sector

Evaluated‐C&I Planned‐C&I Q4 2017‐C&I Evaluated‐Residential Planned‐Residential Q4 2017‐Residential Evaluated‐Low‐Income Planned‐Low‐Income Q4 2017‐Low‐Income

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www.ma-eeac.org 2017 Year-End/Q4 Results

PORTFOLIO LIFETIME GAS COST TO ACHIEVE OVER TIME

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$0.00 $0.10 $0.20 $0.30 $0.40 $0.50 $0.60 $0.70 $/therm

Portfolio Lifetime Gas Cost to Achieve

Evaluated‐Portfolio Planned‐Portfolio Q4 2017‐Portfolio

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THANK YOU

Questions?

►February 28, 2018