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A Systems Approach to Project Planning Bernard Amadei Mortenson - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
A Systems Approach to Project Planning Bernard Amadei Mortenson - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
A Systems Approach to Project Planning Bernard Amadei Mortenson Center in Engineering for Developing Communities University of Colorado, Boulder March 31, 2016 How can Pakistan leverage its existing strength and capacity in STE to address
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How can Pakistan leverage its existing strength and capacity in STE to address the needs of the 67% (70%) who make less than $2 a day while at the same time continue to grow a global knowledge based economy?” (STE4D Conference, Islamabad, June 3, 2014).
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Creating Healthy, Stable, Equitable, Safe, Prosperous Sustainable Communities
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After R. Waskom, N. Grigg, and M. Akhbari, 2014
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What makes a system?
- The parts or components
- The relationship between the parts
- The purpose of the system (subsystems may
have several purposes conflicting or not)
- Components operate under certain rules that
control their behavior “Nothing is completely itself without everything else”
(T. Berry)
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Types of Systems
- Isolated: boundaries closed to import or
export of both mass and energy
- Closed: boundaries closed to import or
export of mass, but not of energy
- Open: exchange of both mass and energy
with surroundings
“When we try to pick up anything by itself, we find it is attached to everything in the universe” (John Muir)
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Simple, Complicated, Complex
- Simple: we know the knowns
- Complicated: we know the unknowns
- Complex: we don’t know the unknowns
- Chaotic: it is all over the place
The type of system dictates the methods of intervention
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Communities as Complex Adaptive Systems
- Constantly evolve and grow
- Self‐organization, self‐correction, and adaptation
by changing structure, behavior, rules of interaction through evolutionary and co‐ evolutionary change
- Communities interact with their environment
through feedback mechanisms
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Communities as Complex Adaptive Systems
- In order to address community issues and
problems, complexity and uncertainty must be embraced and dealt with.
- Ill‐defined problems, uncertainty, no unique
and best solutions to complex problems exist, and satisficing (i.e., good enough) solutions.
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Why Things Fail?
Slowness of human thinking. We feel
- bliged to economize and simplify
Slow speed in absorbing new material. We don’t think about problems we don’t have. Self protection. We need to have things easier and under control to preserve our expectation of success Limited understanding of systems: complexity, dynamics, mistaken hypotheses and ignorance
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Water Energy Food/Ag Land Water Water used for energy extraction and production, and bio (‐fuel) processing Water used for agricultural production and irrigation Water contributes to soil and aquifer replenishing Energy Energy used to run water infrastructure, pumping, irrigation, and desalination Energy used for mechanized agriculture in land preparation, irrigation, fertilization, etc. Energy for field preparation and harvest Food/Ag Agriculture requires
- water. Practices
must be respectful of run‐off, groundwater recharge Production of biofuels and biogas uses food, agricultural residues and biomass Agricultural practices need to be respectful
- f land preservation
Land Soil type and vegetation affect soil water saturation and ground water Soil type affects the energy consumption for land use Soil type and characteristics affect crop yield
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Low Crop Yields
Wet Season vs. Dry Season ↓ Supplies & Resources No Accountability Little Storage Maintenance ↓ Funding Lack of Government Support ↓ Educaon No Training Farmers Not willing to Invest in Change Less Food Poor Health Less Farmers/Sellers Weak Farming Industry Decrease Food Quality Increased Sickness Weak Economy Overall Lack of Farming Knowledge Low Income from Cash Crops Insufficient Cash Crops Low Productivity due to Malnutrition Corruption Pesticide/ Fertilizer Overuse Deforestation Pesticide/ Fertilizer Overuse Water Quality High Mortality Rate Lack of Agriculture Knowledge Lack of Business Knowledge Lack of access to markets outside the community Little water Poor Distribution System Damaged Irrigation Canals Poor Soil Quality Lack of Knowledge of Soil Nutrition & relationship to crop yield Lack of Education Lack of Organization
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Increased Crop Yields
Increase in water Water storage during Dry Season Increase Knowledge of Agriculture Available Supplies & Resources Improved Soil Quality Accountability among farmers Improve Distribution System Increase Storage Capacity Repair/New Irrigation Canals Learned Maintenance techniques Increase Funding Increase Business Knowledge Knowledge of Soil Nutrition & relationship to crop yield Increase in Education Lack of Government Support Farmers are Educated Training Programs Farmers willing to Invest in Change Increase access to markets outside the community More Food Improved Health More Farmers/Sellers Strong Farming Industry Increase Food Quality Decreased Sickness Strong Economy Overall Increase Farming Knowledge Increase Income from Cash Crops Sufficient cash crops High productivity due to good nutrition Pesticide/ Fertilizer improvement Reforestation Decrease use of Pesticide/ Fertilizer Improved Water Quality Decreased Mortality Rate Farmers Organized for Co‐op program
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Multiple Criteria Decision Matrix
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Social Network Analysis
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Logical Decision Framework
Objectives Goals Outcomes
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System Science(s): Study of systems
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System Dynamics
“An approach to understanding the behaviour of complex systems over time. It deals with internal feedback loops and time delays that affect the behaviour of the entire
- system. What makes using system dynamics different
from other approaches to studying complex systems is the use of feedback loops and stocks and flows. These elements help describe how even seemingly simple systems display baffling nonlinearity.” (Wikipedia, 2014)
http://www.iseesystems.com
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A Cause B Effect C A B C Feedback: shows how actions can reinforce (positive feedback) or counteract (balance through negative feedback) each other Variables are organized in a circle
- r loop of cause-effect
relationship called a “feedback process” Linear Causality Circular Causality
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Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs)
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Causal Loop Diagrams
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Stock and Flow Diagrams
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Modeling
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Stock and Flow Diagrams
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Framework
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Community Appraisal
Project Hypothesis
Project Strategy and Planning Project Execution Project Exit Strategy Project Scaling
Project Long-Term Benefits
Analysis of Appraisal Refining the Work Plan Reflection
- on-Action
Post Project Reflection
Project Identification & Initiation
Exit Exit Reflection
- in-Action
Continuous Assessment
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