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A prediction is not a decision -- it is only a component of a decision. Prediction Machines , Agarwal, et.al. ? Prediction + Judgement = Decision "Open the pod bay doors, Hal" 2001: A Space Odyssey How far should we go?

  1. “A prediction is not a decision -- it is only a component of a decision.” – Prediction Machines , Agarwal, et.al.

  2. ? Prediction + Judgement = Decision

  3. "Open the pod bay doors, Hal" – 2001: A Space Odyssey

  4. How far should we go? What’s the judgement call? 1. Skin cancer diagnosis 50 60 2. Car repair (not body work) 40 70 80 30 3. Computer crash analysis/repair 20 90 4. Severe weather warnings AI + 10 100 5. Stock trades 110 0 6. Real estate purchases AI 7. Building code inspection Prediction 
 Complete + 
 8. Prescribed medicine insurance claims Autonomy Human 9. Who gets tested for COVID-19 Judgement

  5. However, judgment is costly. Figuring out the relative payoffs for different actions in different situations takes time, effort, and experimentation. – Prediction Machines , Agarwal, et.al.

  6. “Prediction machines are a tool for humans. So long as humans are needed to weigh outcomes and impose judgment, they have a key role to play as prediction machines improve.” – Prediction Machines , Agarwal, et.al.

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