A prediction is not a decision -- it is only a component of a - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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A prediction is not a decision -- it is only a component of a - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Dec 14, 2022 257 likes •332 views

A prediction is not a decision -- it is only a component of a decision. Prediction Machines , Agarwal, et.al. ? Prediction + Judgement = Decision "Open the pod bay doors, Hal" 2001: A Space Odyssey How far should we go?

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SLIDE 1

– Prediction Machines, Agarwal, et.al.

“A prediction is not a decision -- it is only a component of a decision.”

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SLIDE 2

Prediction + Judgement = Decision

?

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SLIDE 3

– 2001: A Space Odyssey

"Open the pod bay doors, Hal"

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SLIDE 4

How far should we go? What’s the judgement call?

  • 1. Skin cancer diagnosis
  • 2. Car repair (not body work)
  • 3. Computer crash analysis/repair
  • 4. Severe weather warnings
  • 5. Stock trades
  • 6. Real estate purchases
  • 7. Building code inspection
  • 8. Prescribed medicine insurance claims
  • 9. Who gets tested for COVID-19

AI Prediction
 +
 Human Judgement Complete Autonomy

AI +

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110

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SLIDE 5

– Prediction Machines, Agarwal, et.al.

However, judgment is costly. Figuring out the relative payoffs for different actions in different situations takes time, effort, and experimentation.

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SLIDE 6

– Prediction Machines, Agarwal, et.al.

“Prediction machines are a tool for humans. So long as humans are needed to weigh outcomes and impose judgment, they have a key role to play as prediction machines improve.”