A pollsters take on the 2018 election Pacific Northwest Waterways - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

A pollster’s take on the 2018 election Pacific Northwest Waterways Associaion October 2018

 Independent  Non-Partisan  Four decades of public opinion research in Oregon and the Pacific Northwest

• How are we feeling • United States congressional elections • Key state elections

Until the election

300,000 Votes already cast

• Economic anxiety • Racial and cultural resentment • Demise of the Democratic party • Trump has changed everything

• Democrats have won • Economic anxiety popular vote 4 of last 5 presidential elections • Racial and cultural resentment • Democrats gained seats in the House and Senate in • Demise of the Democratic 2016 party • Party ID and 2012 vote were • Trump has changed by far best predictors everything

Trump wins!

Clinton wins!

Issues

Most important problem facing the nation today? 29% Poor leadership 12% Immigration 12% Economic concerns 9% Race relations 7% Unifying the country 5% Health care 4% Lack of respect for each other 2% Poverty Source: Gallup

American’s economic concerns at record lows

American’s complicated views on trade Trade with other Trade with other 74% 21% countries is good countries is bad 38% 34% Trade creates jobs Trade destroys jobs 31% 31% Trade increases wages Trade decreases wages 37% 32% Trade increases prices Trade decreases prices Source: Pew

American’s complicated views on trade Trade with other Trade with other 74% 21% countries is good countries is bad 38% 34% Trade creates jobs Trade destroys jobs 31% 31% Trade increases wages Trade decreases wages Trade decreases prices 37% 32% Trade increases prices Source: Pew

Mood

Is the United States headed in the right direction? Source: Huffington Post

Is Oregon headed in the right direction? 70% 66% 60% 50% 45% 40% 30% 20% 21% 10% 0% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: DHM Research

Is Oregon headed in the right direction? 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 9-points 0% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Democrat Republican Source: DHM Research

Is Oregon headed in the right direction? 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 41-points 0% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Democrat Republican Source: DHM Research

Democrats and Republicans views of each other 45% 43% 17% 16% 1994 2018 % D's very unfavorable R's % R's very unfavorable D's Source: Pew

Congressional Elections

Seats to flip

+8 -63 Obama Bush 2 2010 2002 Average seats lost by president’s party

Presidential Approval at 1 st Term Mid-term 68% Bush 2 Bush 1 Kennedy Eisenhower Nixon Carter Johnson Obama 44% Reagan Clinton 42% Trump

Presidential Approval at 1 st Term Mid-term 68% Bush 2 Bush 1 Kennedy Eisenhower Nixon Carter -47 Johnson Obama 44% -26 Reagan Clinton -57 42% Trump

Unemployment Rate 1 st Term Mid-term 6.0% Bush 2 Bush 1 Kennedy Eisenhower Nixon Carter Johnson Obama 9.3% Reagan Clinton 3.7% Trump

Source: Larry Sabato

Percent of Democrats and Republicans more enthusiastic about voting 55% 55% 50% 45% 44% 47% 41% 41% 42% 42% 40% 37% 30% 29% 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 Source: Pew

Generic congressional ballot Source: FiveThirtyEight Source: FiveThirtyEight

Source: FiveThirtyEight

Source: FiveThirtyEight

State competitiveness Gender and age splits Chaos?!

Oregon

Statewide races since 2000

Public polling of Brown vs. Buehler 49% 49% 45% 45% 45% 43% 42% 42% 41% 39% July 2018 August September 12-13 Sept 24-Oct 7 September 20-23 Gravis Clout Hoffman Research Riley Research Clout

Washington

I-1631: Carbon Tax • Climate change is real • Caused by human activities • Need to act • Most remain unwilling to pay more in fuel, utilities or consumer goods

Idaho

Proposition 2: Medicaid Expansion Yes 45% No 19% Undecided 35% Source: Clarity Campaign Labs

Q&A John Horvick jhorvick@dhmresearch.com @horvick www.dhmresearch.com