A pollsters take on the 2018 election Pacific Northwest Waterways - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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a pollster s take on the 2018 election
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A pollsters take on the 2018 election Pacific Northwest Waterways - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Feb 02, 2024 507 likes •1.01k views

A pollsters take on the 2018 election Pacific Northwest Waterways Associaion October 2018 Independent Non-Partisan Four decades of public opinion research in Oregon and the Pacific Northwest How are we feeling United States

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A pollster’s take on the 2018 election

Pacific Northwest Waterways Associaion October 2018

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  • Independent
  • Non-Partisan
  • Four decades of public opinion research in Oregon and

the Pacific Northwest

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  • How are we feeling
  • United States congressional elections
  • Key state elections
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Until the election

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300,000

Votes already cast

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  • Economic anxiety
  • Racial and cultural

resentment

  • Demise of the Democratic

party

  • Trump has changed

everything

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  • Economic anxiety
  • Racial and cultural

resentment

  • Demise of the Democratic

party

  • Trump has changed

everything

  • Democrats have won

popular vote 4 of last 5 presidential elections

  • Democrats gained seats in

the House and Senate in 2016

  • Party ID and 2012 vote were

by far best predictors

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Trump wins!

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Clinton wins!

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Issues

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29% Poor leadership 12% Immigration 12% Economic concerns

9% Race relations 7% Unifying the country 5% Health care 4% Lack of respect for each other 2% Poverty

Most important problem facing the nation today?

Source: Gallup

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American’s economic concerns at record lows

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SLIDE 17 74% 38% 31% 37% 21% 34% 31% 32%

Trade with other countries is good Trade with other countries is bad

Trade creates jobs Trade destroys jobs Trade increases wages Trade decreases wages Trade increases prices Trade decreases prices

American’s complicated views on trade

Source: Pew

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SLIDE 18 74% 38% 31% 37% 21% 34% 31% 32%

Trade with other countries is good Trade with other countries is bad Trade creates jobs Trade destroys jobs Trade increases wages Trade decreases wages Trade increases prices Trade decreases prices

American’s complicated views on trade

Source: Pew

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Mood

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Is the United States headed in the right direction?

Source: Huffington Post

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SLIDE 21 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

66% 21% 45% Source: DHM Research

Is Oregon headed in the right direction?

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SLIDE 22 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Democrat Republican

9-points

Is Oregon headed in the right direction?

Source: DHM Research

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SLIDE 23 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Democrat Republican

Is Oregon headed in the right direction?

41-points Source: DHM Research

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Democrats and Republicans views of each other

16% 43%

17% 45%

1994 2018 % D's very unfavorable R's % R's very unfavorable D's Source: Pew

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Congressional Elections

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Seats to flip

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+8

  • 63

Average seats lost by president’s party Obama 2010 Bush 2 2002

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42% 44% 68%

Trump Clinton Reagan Obama Johnson Carter Nixon Eisenhower Kennedy Bush 1 Bush 2

Presidential Approval at 1st Term Mid-term

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42% 44% 68%

Trump Clinton Reagan Obama Johnson Carter Nixon Eisenhower Kennedy Bush 1 Bush 2

Presidential Approval at 1st Term Mid-term

  • 57
  • 26
  • 47
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3.7% 9.3% 6.0%

Trump Clinton Reagan Obama Johnson Carter Nixon Eisenhower Kennedy Bush 1 Bush 2

Unemployment Rate 1st Term Mid-term

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Source: Larry Sabato

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41% 41% 44% 30% 55% 45% 50%

29% 40% 42% 47% 42% 37% 55% 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018

Percent of Democrats and Republicans more enthusiastic about voting

Source: Pew

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Generic congressional ballot

Source: FiveThirtyEight Source: FiveThirtyEight

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Source: FiveThirtyEight

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Source: FiveThirtyEight

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State competitiveness Gender and age splits Chaos?!

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Oregon

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Statewide races since 2000

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45% 42% 49% 42% 49%

45% 43% 39% 41% 45%

Public polling of Brown vs. Buehler

July 2018 Gravis August Clout September 12-13 Hoffman Research Sept 24-Oct 7 Riley Research September 20-23 Clout
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Washington

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I-1631: Carbon Tax

  • Climate change is real
  • Caused by human activities
  • Need to act
  • Most remain unwilling to pay

more in fuel, utilities or consumer goods

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Idaho

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Proposition 2: Medicaid Expansion

35% 19% 45%

Undecided No Yes

Source: Clarity Campaign Labs

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www.dhmresearch.com John Horvick jhorvick@dhmresearch.com @horvick

Q&A