A coupled weather and wildland fire forecasting system with - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

A coupled weather and wildland fire forecasting system with assimilation

• f satellite remote sensing data

Jan Mandel

University of Colorado Denver and Institute for Informatics, Czech Academy of Sciences with Jonathan D. Beezley, Mary Ann Jenkins, Adam K. Kochanski, Volodymyr Y. Kondratenko, Lixin Lu, Sher Shranz, Martin Vejmelka

Supported by NASA ROSES A.35 11-FIRES11-0038 and NSF DMS-1216481

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2

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forecast state distribution gaussian, mean u

f covariance Q :

p

f (u) = const exp(!||u ! u f || Q!1 2

/2)

• bservation h(u)+ gaussian error with zero mean, covariance R - data likelihood

p(u | d) = const exp(!||h(u)! d ||

R!1 2

/2) analysis = after the data is taken into account p

a(u) = const p(u | d)p f (u) = const exp( ! (||h(u)! d || R!1 2

+||u ! u

f || Q!1 2 ) / 2)

" max

u

maximum a posteriori probability (MAP) estimation # nonlinear least squares: ||h(u)! d ||

R!1 2

+||u ! u

f || Q!1 2 " min

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