9.7 % $8.8 T Source: Asian Development Bank Global GDP Loss - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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9.7 % $8.8 T Source: Asian Development Bank Global GDP Loss - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Feb 17, 2023 345 likes •1.26k views

Global GDP 9.7 % $8.8 T Source: Asian Development Bank Global GDP Loss Equivalents $3. $3.2 2 Trill llion $2. $2.6 6 Trill llion $2.9 $2. 9 Trill llion #5 #5 #8 #8 #7 #7 Source: International Monetary Fund Global Job

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9.7 % ↓ $8.8 T ↓

Global GDP

Source: Asian Development Bank

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Global GDP Loss Equivalents

Source: International Monetary Fund

$2. $2.9 9 Trill llion #7 #7 $3. $3.2 2 Trill llion #5 #5 $2. $2.6 6 Trill llion #8 #8

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Global Job Losses

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Global Job Losses

15 158 – 224 MM 4 MM

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Global Job Loss Equivalents

Source: CIA Factbook

160 M Milli lion #3 #3 65 M Milli lion #8 #8

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Global Job Loss Equivalents

Source: International Monetary Fund

Countrie ies R Requestin ting A g Assis ista tance f from th the IMF*

10 100

Requests A sts Approved*

55

*As of May 18, 2020

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2.3 2.2 3.2 3.5 2.5 3.5 2.9 1.1 3.1 2.0 2.1 2.1

  • 4.8
  • 36.0
  • 31.0
  • 26.0
  • 21.0
  • 16.0
  • 11.0
  • 6.0
  • 1.0
4.0

Q1/17 Q3/17 Q1/18 Q3/18 Q1/19 Q3/19 Q1/20 Q3/20

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Growth Rate, % Change from Previous Quarter

US Gross Domestic Product

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2.3 2.2 3.2 3.5 2.5 3.5 2.9 1.1 3.1 2.0 2.1 2.1

  • 4.8
  • 33.3
  • 36.0
  • 31.0
  • 26.0
  • 21.0
  • 16.0
  • 11.0
  • 6.0
  • 1.0
4.0

Q1/17 Q3/17 Q1/18 Q3/18 Q1/19 Q3/19 Q1/20 Q3/20

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Growth Rate, % Change from Previous Quarter

US Gross Domestic Product

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211 282 3,307 6,867 6,615 5,237 4,442 3,867 3,176 2,687 2,438

March 7 March 14 March 21 March 28 April 4 April 11 April 18 April 25 May 2 May 9 May 16

Source: U.S. Employment and Training Administration

000s

Initial Claims for Unemployment

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Houston Job Losses (March + April) 330,000 Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits (Mar 15 – May 9) 425,000 Unemployment Rate 14.2%

Three Houston Indicators

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Houston Job Losses (March + April) 330,000 Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits (Mar 15 – May 9) 425,000 Unemployment Rate 14.2%

Three Houston Indicators

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Houston Job Losses (March + April) 330,000 Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits (Mar 15 – May 9) 425,000 Unemployment Rate 14.2%

Three Houston Indicators

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Houston PMI

30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21

Source: Institute for Supply Management-Houston

Above 50 = Expansion, Below 50 = Contraction

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$99, $99,365 65,22 224 $107, 7,199, 99,928 928 $5 $51,38 381,73 735 $12, $12,459 59

Jan '20 Feb '20 Mar '20 Apr '20

Source: City of Houston

Houston Mixed Beverage Receipts

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  • 10,000

20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000

7-Jan 14-Jan 21-Jan 28-Jan 4-Feb 11-Feb 18-Feb 25-Feb 3-Mar 10-Mar 17-Mar 24-Mar 31-Mar 7-Apr 14-Apr 21-Apr 28-Apr 5-May 12-May

Source: City of Houston

City of

  • f Hou
  • uston Downtown P

Parking T Transaction

  • ns

(7 day a y average)

Houston Re-Opening

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Houston Re-Opening

  • 120
  • 100
  • 80
  • 60
  • 40
  • 20

20 18-Feb 25-Feb 3-Mar 10-Mar 17-Mar 24-Mar 31-Mar 7-Apr 14-Apr 21-Apr 28-Apr 5-May 12-May % Change from Same Week Last Year

Source: Open Table

Houston

  • n-Area Res

estaurant Res eservations ns

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Impact of COVID-19 on Houston’s Global Business

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Inventory of Global Assets

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Metro Houston Exports – Billions

$65.8 $120.7

'09 '18

Source: U.S. International Trade Administration

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Top Exporting Metros

47.3 59.7 64.8 97.7 120.7

Chicago Seattle Los Angeles New York Houston

$ Billions

Source: U.S. International Trade Administration

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Top Customs Districts

Rank nk Dis istrict Mil illio ion Metric T Tons

1 Houst ston/Galvest ston 320. 320.9 2 New Orleans 238.8 3 Los Angeles 115.0 4 Port Arthur 92.5 5 New York 81.4

Source: WISERTrade

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Trading Partners

183 Trading Partners 45 countries with $1 billion+ bilateral trade

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Top Trading Partners – ’19

Mexico $21.7B Brazil $15.4B China $14.7B

  • S. Korea $13.5B

Netherlands $11.7B India $10.1B Germany $10.0B United Kingdom $9.3B Japan $9.2B Colombia $7.0B

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Top Houston Commodities – ’19

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  • 11,000+ exporters
  • 1,700+ foreign-owned firms
  • 91 countries with official government offices
  • 56 international chambers, trade associations,

commercial offices

  • 17 foreign banks

International Snapshot

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Impact on Houston’s Global Business

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Slower growth over the next 2-3 years Weaker demand for Houston exports Limited access to overseas markets Fewer foreign visitors to Houston Reduction in foreign direct investment (FDI)

Impact on Houston’s Global Business

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Slower growth over the next 2-3 years Weaker demand for Houston exports Limited access to overseas markets Fewer foreign visitors to Houston Reduction in foreign direct investment (FDI)

Impact on Houston’s Global Business

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Slower growth over the next 2-3 years Weaker demand for Houston exports Limited access to overseas markets Fewer foreign visitors to Houston Reduction in foreign direct investment (FDI)

Impact on Houston’s Global Business

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Slower growth over the next 2-3 years Weaker demand for Houston exports Limited access to overseas markets Fewer foreign visitors to Houston Reduction in foreign direct investment (FDI)

Impact on Houston’s Global Business

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Slower growth over the next 2-3 years Weaker demand for Houston exports Limited access to overseas markets Fewer foreign visitors to Houston Reduction in foreign direct investment (FDI)

Impact on Houston’s Global Business

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Export Demand

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Published O ed October er 1 1, 2019

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73 73 126 126 234 234 306 306 407 07 467 467 598 598 57 570 81 814 1, 1,463 463 0.6 .6 0.8 .8 1. 1.3 1. 1.7 2.2 .2 2.5 .5 3.7 .7 3.6 .6 4.7 .7 7. 7.5 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 % of World’s Imports Restrictions in Force Source: World Trade Organization

Import Restrictions In Force % of World's Imports

Import Restrictions In Force

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Ma May 1 y 10, 2019 April 3, 2 2019

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$7.6 B $4.4 B

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19

$ Billions

Source: WISERTrade

Houston Exports to China

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$12.7 B $14.6 B

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19

$ Billions

Source: WISERTrade

Houston Exports to Mexico

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  • 15
  • 10
  • 5

5 10 15 '71 '73 '75 '77 '79 '81 '83 '85 '87 '89 '91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19

% Change

Source: Partnership calculations based on World Bank data

% Change from Previous Year

GDP Exports

Global Growth, Exports v GDP

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International Air Service

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  • 2 international airports
  • 23 carriers offering international service
  • 67 international destinations
  • 37 countries
  • 851 international flights per week
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Rank nking Air Airport Intern rnational l Flight hts/Week 1 New York – JFK 1,526 2 Miami – MIA 1,424 3 Los Angeles – LAX 1,111 4 Newark – EWR 880 5 Houston – IAH AH 851 6 Chicago – ORD 768 7 Atlanta – ATL 697 8 San Francisco – SFO 684 9 Fort Lauderdale – FLL 648 10 Dallas/Fort Worth - DFW 628

U.S. International Airports

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U.S. International Airports

“. . . . . . 3 to 5 5 years f for a airl irline in industry t to return f n from

  • m ‘apoc
  • calyptic’ s

state . . . .”

David L. Calhoun CEO of Boeing

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0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0

1-Mar 8-Mar 15-Mar22-Mar29-Mar 5-Apr 12-Apr 19-Apr 26-Apr 3-May 10-May17-May24-May

Millions

Source: Transportation Safety Administration

2020 Same Weekday 1 Year Ago

TSA Checkpoint Travel Data, Entire US

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International Air Transportation Association (IATA) Survey

  • 86% respondents concerned about quarantine while traveling
  • 69% would reconsider travel if it might result in a 14-day

quarantine

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Possible solutions

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IATA Forecast

  • Domestic traffic returns to pre-COVID levels in 2022
  • International traffic returns in 2024
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  • Reduces Houston’s global reach
  • More difficult to recruit overseas clients
  • Loss of touch with existing clients
  • More difficult to attract foreign talent
  • Slows tech transfers
  • Reduces tourism
  • Weakens global supply chains
  • Affects investment decisions (FDI)

Why is this a problem?

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  • Reduces Houston’s global reach
  • More difficult to recruit overseas clients
  • Loss of touch with existing clients
  • More difficult to attract foreign talent
  • Slows tech transfers
  • Reduces tourism
  • Weakens global supply chains
  • Affects investment decisions (FDI)

Why is this a problem?

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  • Reduces Houston’s global reach
  • More difficult to recruit overseas clients
  • Loss of touch with existing clients
  • More difficult to attract foreign talent
  • Slows tech transfers
  • Reduces tourism
  • Weakens global supply chains
  • Affects investment decisions (FDI)

Why is this a problem?

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  • Reduces Houston’s global reach
  • More difficult to recruit overseas clients
  • Loss of touch with existing clients
  • More difficult to attract foreign talent
  • Slows tech transfers
  • Reduces tourism
  • Weakens global supply chains
  • Affects investment decisions (FDI)

Why is this a problem?

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  • Reduces Houston’s global reach
  • More difficult to recruit overseas clients
  • Loss of touch with existing clients
  • More difficult to attract foreign talent
  • Slows tech transfers
  • Reduces tourism
  • Weakens global supply chains
  • Affects investment decisions (FDI)

Why is this a problem?

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  • Reduces Houston’s global reach
  • More difficult to recruit overseas clients
  • Loss of touch with existing clients
  • More difficult to attract foreign talent
  • Slows tech transfers
  • Reduces tourism
  • Weakens global supply chains
  • Affects investment decisions (FDI)

Why is this a problem?

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  • Reduces Houston’s global reach
  • More difficult to recruit overseas clients
  • Loss of touch with existing clients
  • More difficult to attract foreign talent
  • Slows tech transfers
  • Reduces tourism
  • Weakens global supply chains
  • Affects investment decisions (FDI)

Why is this a problem?

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  • Reduces Houston’s global reach
  • More difficult to recruit overseas clients
  • Loss of touch with existing clients
  • More difficult to attract foreign talent
  • Slows tech transfers
  • Reduces tourism
  • Weakens global supply chains
  • Affects investment decisions (FDI)

Why is this a problem?

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Foreign Direct Investment

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Foreign Direct Investment

Since ’09

  • 669 announcements
  • 439 foreign-owned firms
  • 37 countries
  • 63 industries
  • $35.6 billion invested
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Foreign Direct Investment

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  • Infuses new capital into the region
  • Expands the manufacturing base
  • Helps underpin jobs
  • Facilitates the exchange of ideas and best practices
  • Increases trade
  • Stimulates growth
  • Adds to the tax base

Foreign Direct Investment

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  • Infuses new capital into the region
  • Expands the manufacturing base
  • Helps underpin jobs
  • Facilitates the exchange of ideas and best practices
  • Increases trade
  • Stimulates growth
  • Adds to the tax base

Foreign Direct Investment

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  • Infuses new capital into the region
  • Expands the manufacturing base
  • Helps underpin jobs
  • Facilitates the exchange of ideas and best practices
  • Increases trade
  • Stimulates growth
  • Adds to the tax base

Foreign Direct Investment

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  • Infuses new capital into the region
  • Expands the manufacturing base
  • Helps underpin jobs
  • Facilitates the exchange of ideas and best practices
  • Increases trade
  • Stimulates growth
  • Adds to the tax base

Foreign Direct Investment

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  • Infuses new capital into the region
  • Expands the manufacturing base
  • Helps underpin jobs
  • Facilitates the exchange of ideas and best practices
  • Increases trade
  • Stimulates growth
  • Adds to the tax base

Foreign Direct Investment

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  • Infuses new capital into the region
  • Expands the manufacturing base
  • Helps underpin jobs
  • Facilitates the exchange of ideas and best practices
  • Increases trade
  • Stimulates growth
  • Adds to the tax base

Foreign Direct Investment

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  • Infuses new capital into the region
  • Expands the manufacturing base
  • Helps underpin jobs
  • Facilitates the exchange of ideas and best practices
  • Increases trade
  • Stimulates growth
  • Adds to the tax base

Foreign Direct Investment

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Published January 2 20, 2 2020

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Foreign Direct Investment

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Foreign Direct Investment in U.S.

  • 5.0

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

% Change from Year Ago

Shaded a areas as indicat ate U.S. r . recessions

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What about crude?

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Crude Futures

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U.S. Rig Count

200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 '14 '15 '16 17 '18 '19 '20 '21 Number of Drilling Rigs

Source: Baker Hughes

404 R 404 Rigs 318 R 318 Rigs

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Energy Layoffs

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Houston’s Energy Sector Layoffs

Sin ince ce Feb ebru ruary ’20 20 13,200 Jobs ↓

Si Since nce Apri pril ’19 ’19 21,200 Jobs ↓

Includes exploration and production, oil field services, fabricated metal products and oil field equipment manufacturing

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Houston and nd Ene Energy i in n a Post-CO COVID W World ld

Tues uesday, J June 23 une 23 | 12: 12:00 00 p.m.

www.H .Houston.o .org rg/events

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Slower growth over the next 2-3 years

  • Weaker demand for Houston exports
  • Limited access to overseas markets
  • Fewer foreign visitors to Houston
  • Reduction in foreign direct investment (FDI)

Impact on Our Global Business

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Larry Kudlow Director, United States National Economic Council

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Jerome H. Powell Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve

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“We will not go back to where we were when the pandemic

  • started. That is pretty certain.

But that is the only thing that is certain.” George Soros

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