Global GDP 9.7 % ↓ $8.8 T ↓ Source: Asian Development Bank
Global GDP Loss Equivalents $3. $3.2 2 Trill llion $2. $2.6 6 Trill llion $2.9 $2. 9 Trill llion #5 #5 #8 #8 #7 #7 Source: International Monetary Fund
Global Job Losses
Global Job Losses 15 158 – 224 MM 4 MM
Global Job Loss Equivalents 65 M Milli lion 160 M Milli lion #8 #8 #3 #3 Source: CIA Factbook
Global Job Loss Equivalents Countrie ies R Requestin ting A g Assis ista tance f from th the IMF* 10 100 Requests A sts Approved* 55 *As of May 18, 2020 Source: International Monetary Fund
US Gross Domestic Product 3.5 3.5 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.0 2.1 2.1 1.1 4.0 -1.0 -6.0 -4.8 -11.0 -16.0 Growth Rate, % Change from Previous Quarter -21.0 -26.0 -31.0 -36.0 Q1/17 Q3/17 Q1/18 Q3/18 Q1/19 Q3/19 Q1/20 Q3/20 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
US Gross Domestic Product 3.5 3.5 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.1 4.0 -1.0 -6.0 -4.8 -11.0 -16.0 Growth Rate, % Change from Previous Quarter -21.0 -26.0 -31.0 -33.3 -36.0 Q1/17 Q3/17 Q1/18 Q3/18 Q1/19 Q3/19 Q1/20 Q3/20 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Initial Claims for Unemployment 000s 6,867 6,615 5,237 4,442 3,867 3,307 3,176 2,687 2,438 282 211 March 7 March 14 March 21 March 28 April 4 April 11 April 18 April 25 May 2 May 9 May 16 Source: U.S. Employment and Training Administration
Three Houston Indicators Houston Job Losses (March + April) 330,000 Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits (Mar 15 – May 9) 425,000 Unemployment Rate 14.2%
Three Houston Indicators Houston Job Losses (March + April) 330,000 Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits (Mar 15 – May 9) 425,000 Unemployment Rate 14.2%
Three Houston Indicators Houston Job Losses (March + April) 330,000 Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits (Mar 15 – May 9) 425,000 Unemployment Rate 14.2%
Houston PMI Above 50 = Expansion, Below 50 = Contraction 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 Source: Institute for Supply Management-Houston
Houston Mixed Beverage Receipts $107, 7,199, 99,928 928 $99,365 $99, 65,22 224 $5 $51,38 381,73 735 $12, $12,459 59 Jan '20 Feb '20 Mar '20 Apr '20 Source: City of Houston
Houston Re-Opening City of of Hou ouston Downtown P Parking T Transaction ons (7 day a y average) 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 - 7-Jan 14-Jan 21-Jan 28-Jan 4-Feb 11-Feb 18-Feb 25-Feb 3-Mar 10-Mar 17-Mar 24-Mar 31-Mar 7-Apr 14-Apr 21-Apr 28-Apr 5-May 12-May Source: City of Houston
% Change from Same Week Last Year -120 -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 20 0 18-Feb 25-Feb Houston 3-Mar on-Area Res 10-Mar 17-Mar 24-Mar estaurant Res 31-Mar 7-Apr Houston Re-Opening eservations 14-Apr 21-Apr 28-Apr ns Source: Open Table 5-May 12-May
Impact of COVID-19 on Houston’s Global Business
Inventory of Global Assets
Metro Houston Exports – Billions $120.7 $65.8 '09 '18 Source: U.S. International Trade Administration
Top Exporting Metros $ Billions Houston 120.7 New York 97.7 Los Angeles 64.8 Seattle 59.7 Chicago 47.3 Source: U.S. International Trade Administration
Top Customs Districts Mil illio ion Rank nk Dis istrict Metric T Tons 1 Houst ston/Galvest ston 320. 320.9 2 New Orleans 238.8 3 Los Angeles 115.0 4 Port Arthur 92.5 5 New York 81.4 Source: WISERTrade
Trading Partners 183 Trading Partners 45 countries with $1 billion+ bilateral trade
Top Trading Partners – ’19 Mexico $21.7B Brazil $15.4B China $14.7B S. Korea $13.5B Netherlands $11.7B India $10.1B Germany United Kingdom Japan $9.2B Colombia $7.0B $10.0B $9.3B
Top Houston Commodities – ’19
International Snapshot • 11,000+ exporters • 1,700+ foreign-owned firms • 91 countries with official government offices • 56 international chambers, trade associations, commercial offices • 17 foreign banks
Impact on Houston’s Global Business
Impact on Houston’s Global Business Slower growth over the next 2-3 years Weaker demand for Houston exports Limited access to overseas markets Fewer foreign visitors to Houston Reduction in foreign direct investment (FDI)
Impact on Houston’s Global Business Slower growth over the next 2-3 years Weaker demand for Houston exports Limited access to overseas markets Fewer foreign visitors to Houston Reduction in foreign direct investment (FDI)
Impact on Houston’s Global Business Slower growth over the next 2-3 years Weaker demand for Houston exports Limited access to overseas markets Fewer foreign visitors to Houston Reduction in foreign direct investment (FDI)
Impact on Houston’s Global Business Slower growth over the next 2-3 years Weaker demand for Houston exports Limited access to overseas markets Fewer foreign visitors to Houston Reduction in foreign direct investment (FDI)
Impact on Houston’s Global Business Slower growth over the next 2-3 years Weaker demand for Houston exports Limited access to overseas markets Fewer foreign visitors to Houston Reduction in foreign direct investment (FDI)
Export Demand
Published O ed October er 1 1, 2019
Import Restrictions In Force 1,600 8.0 7. 7.5 Import Restrictions In Force % of World's Imports 1,400 7.0 1,200 6.0 % of World’s Imports Restrictions in Force 4.7 .7 1,000 5.0 3.7 .7 800 4.0 3.6 .6 1, 1,463 463 600 3.0 2.5 .5 2.2 .2 1.7 1. 814 81 400 2.0 1.3 1. 598 598 570 57 0.8 .8 467 467 200 0.6 .6 407 07 1.0 306 306 234 234 73 73 126 126 0 0.0 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 Source: World Trade Organization
Ma May 1 y 10, 2019 April 3, 2 2019
Houston Exports to China 9 $7.6 B 8 7 6 5 $ Billions 4 $4.4 B 3 2 1 0 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Source: WISERTrade
Houston Exports to Mexico 18 $14.6 B 16 14 $12.7 B 12 10 $ Billions 8 6 4 2 0 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Source: WISERTrade
Global Growth, Exports v GDP % Change from Previous Year 15 10 5 % Change 0 -5 -10 GDP Exports -15 '71 '73 '75 '77 '79 '81 '83 '85 '87 '89 '91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19 Source: Partnership calculations based on World Bank data
International Air Service
• 2 international airports • 23 carriers offering international service • 67 international destinations • 37 countries • 851 international flights per week
U.S. International Airports Intern rnational l Rank nking Airport Air Flight hts/Week 1 New York – JFK 1,526 2 Miami – MIA 1,424 3 Los Angeles – LAX 1,111 4 Newark – EWR 880 5 Houston – IAH AH 851 6 Chicago – ORD 768 7 Atlanta – ATL 697 8 San Francisco – SFO 684 9 Fort Lauderdale – FLL 648 10 Dallas/Fort Worth - DFW 628
U.S. International Airports “. . . . . . 3 to 5 5 years f for a airl irline in industry t to return f n from om ‘apoc ocalyptic’ s state . . . .” David L. Calhoun CEO of Boeing
TSA Checkpoint Travel Data, Entire US 2020 Same Weekday 1 Year Ago 3.0 2.5 2.0 Millions 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1-Mar 8-Mar 15-Mar22-Mar29-Mar 5-Apr 12-Apr 19-Apr 26-Apr 3-May 10-May17-May24-May Source: Transportation Safety Administration
International Air Transportation Association (IATA) Survey • 86% respondents concerned about quarantine while traveling • 69% would reconsider travel if it might result in a 14-day quarantine
Possible solutions
IATA Forecast • Domestic traffic returns to pre-COVID levels in 2022 • International traffic returns in 2024
Why is this a problem? • Reduces Houston’s global reach • More difficult to recruit overseas clients • Loss of touch with existing clients • More difficult to attract foreign talent • Slows tech transfers • Reduces tourism • Weakens global supply chains • Affects investment decisions (FDI)
Why is this a problem? • Reduces Houston’s global reach • More difficult to recruit overseas clients • Loss of touch with existing clients • More difficult to attract foreign talent • Slows tech transfers • Reduces tourism • Weakens global supply chains • Affects investment decisions (FDI)
Why is this a problem? • Reduces Houston’s global reach • More difficult to recruit overseas clients • Loss of touch with existing clients • More difficult to attract foreign talent • Slows tech transfers • Reduces tourism • Weakens global supply chains • Affects investment decisions (FDI)
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