30-MINUTE BALANCING GATE CLOSURE Market Advisory Committee Meeting 1 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

RC_2017_02: IMPLEMENTATION OF 30-MINUTE BALANCING GATE CLOSURE Market Advisory Committee Meeting 1 May 2017 PRESENTED BY MARTIN MATICKA AND DEAN SHARAFI SLIDE 1

MARKET SYSTEMS – CURRENT PROCESS System WEMS Balancing Management Submissions BMO Market Process Generate Publish Participants Submissions BMO BMO Market 1 minute ~3 minutes 1 minute Participants Performed half hourly after the end of each interval • Under normal operating conditions: o Balancing Submissions processed ~1 minute after the end of each interval. o BMOs are generated and sent to System Management within 3-4 minutes after the end of each interval. • Process will remain unchanged with 30 minute Gate Closure. • A Gate Closure less than 30 minutes will require more significant changes to AEMO’s systems. SLIDE 2

CURRENT TIMELINE – 8:00 AM INTERVAL • BMOs are calculated and published half hourly (orange diamonds). • Before 06:00: Market Participants are able to make Balancing Submissions (clause 7A.2.1) • Between 06:00 and 07:30: Balancing Submissions may be made due to a constraint (clause 7A.2.10). These are reflected in 07:33 BMO and used for dispatch. • Between 07:30 and 08:00 : Balancing Submissions may be made due to a constraint (clause 7A.2.10) and are reflected Pricing BMO. SLIDE 3

RC_2017_03 TIMELINE – 8:00 AM INTERVAL • BMOs continue to be calculated and published half hourly (orange diamonds). • Before 07:30: Market Participants are able to make Balancing Submissions (clause 7A.2.1). These are reflected in 07:33 BMO and used for dispatch. • Between 07:30 and 08:00 : Balancing Submissions may be made due to a constraint (clause 7A.2.10) and are reflected Pricing BMO. • Portfolio gate closure and LFAS gate closure shifts accordingly. SLIDE 4

MARKET SYSTEMS AND PROCESS – IMPACTS • The following changes to WEMS are expected: o Configuration changes to represent new Balancing Gate Closure. o Consequential configuration changes to represent updated Portfolio Submission Window and LFAS Gate Closure. o Changes to automated test suite. • The following changes to processes may be required: o Updates to Market Procedures and other documentation. o Updates to Internal Procedures and compliance monitoring tools. SLIDE 5

MARKET IMPACTS FORECAST ACCURACY Mean Absolute Deviation for Forecasts in the Balancing Market for 2016 (N-5 = current situation, N-2 = 30 min gate closure) $5.90 /MWh 15.57 MW N-1 38.61 MW 37.37 MW $6.56 /MWh 24.44 MW N-2 Interval Before Gate Closure 38.62 MW 43.61 MW $7.21 /MWh 31.69 MW N-3 38.62 MW 49.4 MW $7.56 /MWh 37.98 MW N-4 38.62 MW 53.14 MW $8.19 /MWh 43.7 MW N-5 38.74 MW 56.79 MW 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Error (MW or $/MWh) Price Forecast ($/MWh) Persistence Windfarm Forecast (MW) Windfarm Forecast (MW) Load Forecast (MW) SLIDE 6

MARKET IMPACTS - LOAD FORECAST ERROR DURATION CURVE 2016 500 MW 450 MW 400 MW 350 MW Absolute Error (MW) 300 MW 250 MW 200 MW 150 MW 100 MW 50 MW 0 MW 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100% % of Intervals N-5 N-4 N-3 N-2 N-1 SLIDE 7

MARKET IMPACTS - PRICE FORECAST ERROR DURATION CURVE 2016 $160.00 $140.00 $120.00 Absolute Error ($/MWh) $100.00 $80.00 $60.00 $40.00 $20.00 $0.00 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100% % of Intervals N-5 N-4 N-3 N-2 N-1 SLIDE 8

CURRENT STATE – 2 HR GATE CLOSURE ‘Closed’ intervals Current interval SLIDE 9

CURRENT STATE – 2 HR GATE CLOSURE • 2 Hr look ahead allows positioning for large movements • Combined bids can bring on or off in excess of 300 MW in a single interval • Controller must plan the system to allow movements to occur, whilst ensuring; • Spinning reserve maintained • Load following up and down maintained • Load rejection requirements maintained • Synergy portfolio positioned to meet peaks and troughs • AEMO needs to accommodate combined ramping of IPPs that can be more than 3-4 times the ramp rate of the Balancing Portfolio, plus additional movement of Intermittent Generators • Controllers have to start positioning plant up to 110 min out to meet market dispatches SLIDE 10

CURRENT STATE - CHALLENGES • Multiple market participants increasing (or decreasing) output in a single interval can create large dispatches • 57 MW load increase saw 675 MW of dispatches in a single interval (up and down) see below SLIDE 11

CURRENT STATE - CHALLENGES • Intermittent wind and solar • Solar change of 100 MW near instantaneous not uncommon • Wind change of 200 MW near instantaneous not uncommon All whilst maintaining system security and required reserves Large challenging dispatches happen frequently every one or two shifts SLIDE 12

SOLUTIONS • Ramp Rate limit • Ramping of generators according to the load requirement will allow smooth movement of the system at the beginning of each interval and will limit the time required for short-term operational planning SLIDE 13

DISCUSSION Thank you! SLIDE 14