2020 Southwest Regional Economic Forecast November 17 2020 Taner - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

▶
2020 southwest regional economic forecast
SMART_READER_LITE
LIVE PREVIEW

2020 Southwest Regional Economic Forecast November 17 2020 Taner - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Aug 08, 2023 105 likes •586 views

2020 Southwest Regional Economic Forecast November 17 2020 Taner Osman, Ph.D. Manager, Regional and Sub-Regional Analysis UCR School of Business Center for Economic Forecasting and Development Founding Partner, Beacon Economics LLC UCR Center

slide-1
SLIDE 1

UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development

UCR Center for Economic Forecasting and Development | ucreconomicforecast.org

Taner Osman, Ph.D.

Manager, Regional and Sub-Regional Analysis UCR School of Business Center for Economic Forecasting and Development Founding Partner, Beacon Economics LLC

November 17 2020

2020 Southwest Regional Economic Forecast

slide-2
SLIDE 2

UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development

1. U.S. Economic Update

The slowing recovery

2. The Recovery in California

The lagging recovery

3. The Inland Empire

A relative bright spot in California

4. Southwest Region

Some encouraging signs?

We’ve come a long way since April, there’s still a long way to go

Outline

slide-3
SLIDE 3

UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development

National Covid-19 Update

slide-4
SLIDE 4

UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development

COVID-19 Cases and Deaths: United States

Source: New York Times, The COVID Tracking Project 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200

2 / 1 5 / 2 3 / 1 5 / 2 4 / 1 5 / 2 5 / 1 5 / 2 6 / 1 5 / 2 7 / 1 5 / 2 8 / 1 5 / 2 9 / 1 5 / 2 1 / 1 5 / 2 1 1 / 1 5 / 2

New Cases per Day (in thousands)

New Cases

Cases 7-day MA

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000

2 / 1 5 / 2 3 / 1 5 / 2 4 / 1 5 / 2 5 / 1 5 / 2 6 / 1 5 / 2 7 / 1 5 / 2 8 / 1 5 / 2 9 / 1 5 / 2 1 / 1 5 / 2 1 1 / 1 5 / 2

New Deaths per Day

New Deaths

New Deaths 7-day MA

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

2 / 1 5 / 2 3 / 1 5 / 2 4 / 1 5 / 2 5 / 1 5 / 2 6 / 1 5 / 2 7 / 1 5 / 2 8 / 1 5 / 2 9 / 1 5 / 2 1 / 1 5 / 2 1 1 / 1 5 / 2

Total Hospitalizations (in thousands)

Hospitalizations

slide-5
SLIDE 5

UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development

COVID-19 Hotspots in the United States

Source: New York Times

slide-6
SLIDE 6

UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development

US Labor Market Trends

slide-7
SLIDE 7

UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development

Lagging Indicators

Source: BLS

115000 120000 125000 130000 135000 140000 145000 150000 155000 O c t

  • 1

9 N

  • v
  • 1

9 D e c

  • 1

9 J a n

  • 2

F e b

  • 2

M a r

  • 2

A p r

  • 2

M a y

  • 2

J u n

  • 2

J u l

  • 2

A u g

  • 2

S e p

  • 2

O c t

  • 2

Employment (SA, 000s)

US Payroll Jobs

United States Oct-2020 Share Emp Change from Feb-2020 % Absolute (000s)

Total Nonfarm 142,373

  • 6.6
  • 10,090

Hospitality 9.4%

  • 20.7
  • 3,486

NR/Mining 0.4%

  • 12.9
  • 92

Information 1.8%

  • 9.1
  • 262

Admin Support 6.0%

  • 8.5
  • 797

Other Services 3.9%

  • 7.3
  • 436

Education/Health 16.3%

  • 5.4
  • 1,326

Prof/Business 14.3%

  • 5.3
  • 1,149

Wholesale Trade 4.0%

  • 5.1
  • 304

Manufacturing 8.6%

  • 4.8
  • 621

Logistics 18.8%

  • 3.9
  • 1,079

Construction 5.2%

  • 3.8
  • 294

Retail Trade 10.7%

  • 3.2
  • 499
slide-8
SLIDE 8

UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development

U.S. Labor Market

Source: BLS

214 251

  • 1,373
  • 20,787

2,725 4,781 1,7611,493672 638

  • 25000
  • 20000
  • 15000
  • 10000
  • 5000

5000 10000 J a n

  • 2

F e b

  • 2

M a r

  • 2

A p r

  • 2

M a y

  • 2

J u n

  • 2

J u l

  • 2

A u g

  • 2

S e p

  • 2

O c t

  • 2

Change, Thousands, SA

U.S. Nonfarm Jobs Added/Lost

3.6 3.5 4.4 14.7 13.3 11.1 10.2 8.4 7.9 6.9 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 J a n

  • 2

F e b

  • 2

M a r

  • 2

A p r

  • 2

M a y

  • 2

J u n

  • 2

J u l

  • 2

A u g

  • 2

S e p

  • 2

O c t

  • 2

%

Unemployment Rate

slide-9
SLIDE 9

UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development

Employment Change by Income

slide-10
SLIDE 10

UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development

US Consumption and Income

slide-11
SLIDE 11

UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development

GDP & Consumption Growth Contributions

Source: BEA

Component 2019 Q1-20 Q2-20 Q3-20 GDP 2.4

  • 5.0
  • 31.4

33.1 Consumption 1.7

  • 4.8
  • 24.0

25.3 Durable Goods 0.4

  • 0.9

0.0 5.2 Nondurable Goods 0.4 1.0

  • 2.1

4.1 Services 0.9

  • 4.8
  • 22.0

16.0 Investment

  • 0.2
  • 1.6
  • 8.8

11.6 Structures 0.1

  • 0.1
  • 1.1
  • 0.4

Equipment

  • 0.1
  • 0.9
  • 2.0

3.3 IPP 0.2 0.1

  • 0.5

0.0 Residential 0.1 0.7

  • 1.6

2.1 Inventories

  • 0.4
  • 1.3
  • 3.5

6.6 Exports 0.0

  • 1.1
  • 9.5

4.9 Imports 0.3 2.3 10.1

  • 8.0
  • Gov. Spending

0.5 0.2 0.8

  • 0.7

Federal 0.3 0.1 1.2

  • 0.4

State & Local 0.2 0.1

  • 0.4
  • 0.3

Component 2019 Q1-20 Q2-20 Q3-20 PCE 2.5

  • 6.9
  • 33.2

40.7 Health Care 0.6

  • 2.9
  • 10.9

11.9 Food/Accommodation 0.1

  • 2.4
  • 7.7

6.9 Other Services 0.3

  • 1.1
  • 5.0

3.0 Motor Vehicles/Parts 0.0

  • 1.1

0.1 2.9 Transportation 0.1

  • 1.0
  • 4.0

2.8 Clothing 0.1

  • 1.1
  • 1.4

2.7 Other Durables 0.1

  • 0.3
  • 1.0

2.2 Other Nondurable 0.4 1.0 0.2 2.2 Recreational 0.4 0.2 1.2 1.7 Furnishings 0.1

  • 0.1
  • 0.2

1.5 Gas 0.0

  • 0.4
  • 1.3

1.2 Financial Services 0.2

  • 0.2

0.2 0.9 Food/Beverage 0.1 2.0

  • 0.4

0.4 Housing 0.2

  • 0.1

0.9 0.4

slide-12
SLIDE 12

UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development

PCE

Source: BEA

8,000 9,000 10,000 11,000 12,000 13,000 14,000 2015-01-01 2015-05-01 2015-09-01 2016-01-01 2016-05-01 2016-09-01 2017-01-01 2017-05-01 2017-09-01 2018-01-01 2018-05-01 2018-09-01 2019-01-01 2019-05-01 2019-09-01 2020-01-01 2020-05-01 2020-09-01 $, Billions, SAAR

Real PCE

75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 J a n

  • 2

F e b

  • 2

M a r

  • 2

A p r

  • 2

M a y

  • 2

J u n

  • 2

J u l

  • 2

A u g

  • 2

S e p

  • 2

Indexed at Jan-20 = 100

Real Consumer Spending

Total PCE Durable Goods Nondurable Goods Services

slide-13
SLIDE 13

UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development

US Real Estate

slide-14
SLIDE 14

UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development

Housing

Source: National Association of Realtors, S&P Down Jones Indices

3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500 7,000 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Units, SAAR

U.S. Existing Home Sales

75 125 175 225 275 325 Jan-00 Mar-01 May-02 Jul-03 Sep-04 Nov-05 Jan-07 Mar-08 May-09 Jul-10 Sep-11 Nov-12 Jan-14 Mar-15 May-16 Jul-17 Sep-18 Nov-19 Indexed at Jan-2000 = 100

Case-Shiller Home Price Index

National San Francisco Los Angeles New York Pheonix

slide-15
SLIDE 15

UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development

U.S. Outlook

slide-16
SLIDE 16

UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development

§ All roads lead to the Coronavirus

This was not a structural recession Recovery has been fueled by Congress Will Congress act again?

§ Significant damage has been sustained to the labor market

If we continue adding jobs at the October rate, we will not return to February 2020 employment levels until 2022 Full recovery is not expected until 2023

§ There is positive news!

Vaccine news encouraging Economic damage not due to structural problems At present we would be able to return to “normalcy” quickly

slide-17
SLIDE 17

UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development

California Covid-19 Update

slide-18
SLIDE 18

UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development

COVID-19 Cases and Deaths: California

Source: Los Angeles Times 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000

2 / 1 5 / 2 3 / 1 5 / 2 4 / 1 5 / 2 5 / 1 5 / 2 6 / 1 5 / 2 7 / 1 5 / 2 8 / 1 5 / 2 9 / 1 5 / 2 1 / 1 5 / 2 1 1 / 1 5 / 2

New Cases per Day

New Cases

New Cases 7-day MA

50 100 150 200 250

2 / 1 5 / 2 3 / 1 5 / 2 4 / 1 5 / 2 5 / 1 5 / 2 6 / 1 5 / 2 7 / 1 5 / 2 8 / 1 5 / 2 9 / 1 5 / 2 1 / 1 5 / 2 1 1 / 1 5 / 2

New Deaths per Day

New Deaths

New Deaths 7-day MA

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000

4 / 1 / 2 5 / 9 / 2 6 / 1 6 / 2 7 / 2 4 / 2 8 / 3 1 / 2 1 / 8 / 2 1 1 / 1 5 / 2

Total Hospitalizations per day

Hospitalizations

slide-19
SLIDE 19

UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development

COVID-19 Hotspots in California

Source: New York Times

slide-20
SLIDE 20

UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development

Labor Market

slide-21
SLIDE 21

UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development

California Job Performance

13500 14000 14500 15000 15500 16000 16500 17000 17500 18000 J a n

  • 2

F e b

  • 2

M a r

  • 2

A p r

  • 2

M a y

  • 2

J u n

  • 2

J u l

  • 2

A u g

  • 2

S e p

  • 2

Employment (SA, 000s)

California Payroll Jobs

California Sep-2020 Share Emp Change from Feb-2020 % Absolute (000s) Total Nonfarm 15,982

  • 9.2
  • 1,622

Hospitality 9.1%

  • 29.2
  • 601

Other Services 2.9%

  • 20.3
  • 118

Information 3.2%

  • 12.3
  • 73

Admin Support 6.5%

  • 8.6
  • 98

Retail Trade 9.6%

  • 7.2
  • 119

Manufacturing 7.6%

  • 7.2
  • 95

NR/Mining 0.1%

  • 6.2
  • 1

Logistics 18.0%

  • 6.1
  • 188

Construction 5.3%

  • 6.1
  • 55

Education/Health 16.8%

  • 5.9
  • 169

Prof/Business 16.2%

  • 5.6
  • 154

Wholesale Trade 4.1%

  • 5.4
  • 37

Finance 5.2%

  • 1.6
  • 13
slide-22
SLIDE 22

UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development

California Labor Trends

Source: BLS

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 S e p

  • 1

S e p

  • 1

1 S e p

  • 1

2 S e p

  • 1

3 S e p

  • 1

4 S e p

  • 1

5 S e p

  • 1

6 S e p

  • 1

7 S e p

  • 1

8 S e p

  • 1

9 S e p

  • 2

Unemployment Rate (%)

17600 17800 18000 18200 18400 18600 18800 19000 19200 19400 19600 19800 S e p

  • 1

S e p

  • 1

1 S e p

  • 1

2 S e p

  • 1

3 S e p

  • 1

4 S e p

  • 1

5 S e p

  • 1

6 S e p

  • 1

7 S e p

  • 1

8 S e p

  • 1

9 S e p

  • 2

Employment (SA, 000s)

California Labor Force

slide-23
SLIDE 23

UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development

Employment Change by Income

slide-24
SLIDE 24

UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development

California Consumption Trends

slide-25
SLIDE 25

UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development

Consumer Spending

Source: Opportunity Insights, Affinity Solutions

  • 40%
  • 35%
  • 30%
  • 25%
  • 20%
  • 15%
  • 10%
  • 5%

0% 5% 10% 1 / 2 5 / 2 2 / 2 5 / 2 3 / 2 5 / 2 4 / 2 5 / 2 5 / 2 5 / 2 6 / 2 5 / 2 7 / 2 5 / 2 8 / 2 5 / 2 9 / 2 5 / 2 1 / 2 5 / 2 Change in Consumer Spending

Consumer Spending Trends

United States California

slide-26
SLIDE 26

UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development

California Real Estate

slide-27
SLIDE 27

UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development

Homebuying Trends

Source: CoreLogic 50000 55000 60000 65000 70000 75000 80000 85000 90000 95000 Q 3

  • 1

6 Q 4

  • 1

6 Q 1

  • 1

7 Q 2

  • 1

7 Q 3

  • 1

7 Q 4

  • 1

7 Q 1

  • 1

8 Q 2

  • 1

8 Q 3

  • 1

8 Q 4

  • 1

8 Q 1

  • 1

9 Q 2

  • 1

9 Q 3

  • 1

9 Q 4

  • 1

9 Q 1

  • 2

Q 2

  • 2

Q 3

  • 2

Sales (Existing SFR)

California Home Sales

Region Sales Q3-20 1-Year % Growth 1-Year Change California 76,536 10.2 7088 Central Coast 5,713 19.1 915 Bay 17,034 12.3 1859 SoCal 46,485 9.1 3877 Sacramento Valley 7,304 6.4 437

slide-28
SLIDE 28

UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development

Housing Cost Trends

Source: REIS, CoreLogic

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 Q3-10 Q1-11 Q3-11 Q1-12 Q3-12 Q1-13 Q3-13 Q1-14 Q3-14 Q1-15 Q3-15 Q1-16 Q3-16 Q1-17 Q3-17 Q1-18 Q3-18 Q1-19 Q3-19 Q1-20 Q3-20 Prices ($, 000s)

Media Home Prices

Los Angeles Orange County Riverside San Bernardino San Diego

Apartment Rents Region Q3-20 ($) YoY % Growth QoQ % Growth California 2,055

  • 3.2
  • 2.8

Inland Empire 1,454 2.5 0.0 San Diego 1,868

  • 0.7
  • 1.2

Orange County 1,958

  • 1.8
  • 2.2

Los Angeles 2,014

  • 2.9
  • 2.7
slide-29
SLIDE 29

UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development

California Outlook

slide-30
SLIDE 30

UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development

§ All roads lead to the Coronavirus

The economy cannot mend while the virus is surging CA was hit harder than other places in the summer surge, a new wave is beginning

§ Significant damage has been sustained to the labor market

Full recovery is not expected until 2023 Low income households are being disproportionately affected

§ There is positive news!

Vaccine news encouraging Economic damage not due to structural problems At present we would be able to return to “normalcy” quickly

slide-31
SLIDE 31

UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development

The Inland Empire

slide-32
SLIDE 32

UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development

Pre-COVID Economy: Employment

Source: QCEW

30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2 9 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 3 2 1 4 2 1 5 2 1 6 2 1 7 2 1 8 2 1 9 Wages (Thousands) Employment (Thousands)

Employment & Wages Inland Empire

Employment Wages Industry Inland Empire CA 1-Yr Growth (%) 2019 Emp (000s) 1-Yr Growth (%) Industry Share (%) Total 1,535.1 3.0 100.0 1.6 Logistics 143.4 9.4 9.3 5.7 Admin Support 105.3 4.5 6.9 0.5 NR/Ag/Utilities 26.0 3.5 1.7 0.2 Leisure/Hospitality 194.6 3.3 12.7 2.3

  • Prof. Services

51.6 3.3 3.4 3.3 Wholesale Trade 66.4 2.7 4.3

  • 1.0

Financial Activities 44.5 1.9 2.9 0.7 Construction 106.7 1.7 7.0 3.0 Other Services 40.8 1.4 2.7 1.1 Government 75.6 1.3 4.9 1.5 Retail Trade 183.1 0.4 11.9

  • 1.5

Manufacturing 101.0 0.1 6.6 0.2 Edu/Health 242.5

  • 8.6

15.8 2.3 Information 8.7

  • 24.8

0.6 4.5

slide-33
SLIDE 33

UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development

2020 Labor Market

Source: California EDD

  • 14.0
  • 12.0
  • 10.0
  • 8.0
  • 6.0
  • 4.0
  • 2.0

0.0 2.0 4.0 1,200 1,250 1,300 1,350 1,400 1,450 1,500 1,550 1,600 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 YOY Growth (%) Total Nonfarm (000s)

Inland Empire Employment

Total Nonfarm YOY Growth Industry Sep-20 (000s) Feb-Sep Growth (%) Feb-Sep Change (000s) Total Nonfarm 1,425

  • 8.0
  • 124.1

Finance and Insurance 24 1.7 0.4 Management 9 0.5 0.0 Real Estate 20 0.0 0.0 Wholesale Trade 67

  • 0.5
  • 0.3

Logistics 145

  • 2.2
  • 3.3

Prof Sci and Tech 40

  • 3.0
  • 1.3

Health Care 228

  • 3.0
  • 7.2

Government 250

  • 3.2
  • 8.3

Retail Trade 168

  • 7.5
  • 13.6

Construction 100

  • 8.1
  • 8.9

Admin Support 98

  • 8.8
  • 9.4

Manufacturing 90

  • 9.3
  • 9.2

Information 10

  • 15.3
  • 1.7

Education 17

  • 15.6
  • 3.1

NR/Mining 1

  • 16.2
  • 0.2

Other Services 35

  • 21.1
  • 9.5

Arts/Entertainment 14

  • 26.7
  • 5.0

Accommodation/Food 109

  • 28.4
  • 43.5
slide-34
SLIDE 34

UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development

Riverside County Employment Change by Income

slide-35
SLIDE 35

UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development

Labor Market Recovery

Source: California EDD

2,000

  • 12,000
  • 192,000

7,000 45,000 11,000 12,000 3,000

  • 14.0
  • 12.0
  • 10.0
  • 8.0
  • 6.0
  • 4.0
  • 2.0

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 J a n

  • 2

F e b

  • 2

M a r

  • 2

A p r

  • 2

M a y

  • 2

J u n

  • 2

J u l

  • 2

A u g

  • 2

S e p

  • 2

Month Over Month Growth (%)

Total Nonfarm Employment Growth Inland Empire

83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 101 103 J a n

  • 2

F e b

  • 2

M a r

  • 2

A p r

  • 2

M a y

  • 2

J u n

  • 2

J u l

  • 2

A u g

  • 2

S e p

  • 2

Indexed at Jan-20 = 100

Total Nonfarm Employment Indexed Growth

California Inland Empire Los Angeles Orange San Diego Actual Job Gains/Losses Indicated in Red

slide-36
SLIDE 36

UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development

Inland Empire – Business Activity

Source: HDL

  • 10
  • 5

5 10 15 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 Q 2

  • 9

Q 2

  • 1

Q 2

  • 1

1 Q 2

  • 1

2 Q 2

  • 1

3 Q 2

  • 1

4 Q 2

  • 1

5 Q 2

  • 1

6 Q 2

  • 1

7 Q 2

  • 1

8 Q 2

  • 1

9 Q 2

  • 2

YOY Growth (%) Millions ($)

Sales Tax Revenue Inland Empire

Total YOY Growth Category Q2-20 ($Millions) Growth (%) QoQ YoY

Total 191.8

  • 4.7
  • 8.4

Food and Drugs 10.5 5.2 12.7 Business and Industry 35.9 1.4

  • 0.4

Autos and Transportation 31.2 1.2

  • 7.0

Building and Construction 21.6

  • 0.7

5.5 General Consumer Goods 28.0

  • 18.1
  • 31.0

Restaurants and Hotels 15.5

  • 19.5
  • 31.5

Fuel and Service Stations 12.2

  • 31.4
  • 42.4
slide-37
SLIDE 37

UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development

Homebuying Trends

Source: CoreLogic

9,000 10,000 11,000 12,000 13,000 14,000 15,000 16,000 17,000 Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16 Q1-17 Q2-17 Q3-17 Q4-17 Q1-18 Q2-18 Q3-18 Q4-18 Q1-19 Q2-19 Q3-19 Q4-19 Q1-20 Q2-20 Q3-20 Sales (Existing SFR)

Inland Empire Home Sales

County Home Sales Q3-20 1-Year Growth (%) 1-Year Change

Orange 6,358 16 884 San Bernardino 7,083 12 780 San Diego 7,179 11 736 Riverside 8,622 9 727 Los Angeles 13,211 3 353

slide-38
SLIDE 38

UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development

Southwest Riverside County Indicators

slide-39
SLIDE 39

UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development

City of Lake Elsinore

Source: LEHD

Industry Employment Shares (%) Lake Elsinore LQ Riverside County Lake Elsinore

Arts/Entertainment 13.7 11.7 0.9 Logistics 11.0 11.4 1.0 Other Services 11.3 10.7 0.9 Construction 7.4 9.5 1.3 Manufacturing 7.3 9.1 1.2 Health Care 9.3 9.0 1.0 Education 7.0 6.9 1.0 Admin Support 5.2 6.0 1.2 Wholesale Trade 4.5 5.2 1.2 Information 5.2 4.6 0.9 Professional Services 4.0 4.5 1.1 Public Admin 2.9 3.0 1.0 Ag/Mining 2.8 1.8 0.6 Accommodation/food 2.4 1.8 0.7 Financial Activities 1.4 1.4 1.0

*Highlighted industries indicate LQ > 1

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Less than HS HS Diploma Some College Bachelor's Graduate (%)

Educational Attainment

Lake Elsinore Riverside County

slide-40
SLIDE 40

UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development

City of Menifee

Source: LEHD

Industry Employment Shares (%) Menifee LQ Riverside County Menifee

Arts/Entertainment 13.7 13.6 1.0 Health Care 9.3 11.1 1.2 Other Services 11.3 11.1 1.0 Logistics 11.0 10.8 1.0 Construction 7.4 8.0 1.1 Manufacturing 7.3 7.3 1.0 Admin Support 5.2 6.0 1.2 Education 7.0 5.5 0.8 Wholesale Trade 4.5 4.7 1.0 Information 5.2 4.4 0.9 Professional Services 4.0 4.0 1.0 Ag/Mining 2.8 2.7 1.0 Public Admin 2.9 2.7 0.9 Accommodation/food 2.4 2.0 0.8 Financial Activities 1.4 1.8 1.3

*Highlighted industries indicate LQ > 1

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Less than HS HS Diploma Some College Bachelor's Graduate (%)

Educational Attainment

Menifee Riverside County

slide-41
SLIDE 41

UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development

City of Murrieta

Source: LEHD

Industry Employment Shares (%) Murrieta LQ Riverside County Murrieta

Arts/Entertainment 13.7 13.2 1.0 Other Services 11.3 12.4 1.1 Health Care 9.3 11.1 1.2 Logistics 11.0 10.4 0.9 Manufacturing 7.3 7.6 1.0 Construction 7.4 7.4 1.0 Admin Support 5.2 6.5 1.3 Education 7.0 6.0 0.9 Wholesale Trade 4.5 4.6 1.0 Professional Services 4.0 4.3 1.1 Information 5.2 3.3 0.6 Public Admin 2.9 3.1 1.1 Ag/Mining 2.8 2.5 0.9 Accommodation/food 2.4 1.9 0.8 Financial Activities 1.4 1.7 1.2

*Highlighted industries indicate LQ > 1

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Less than HS HS Diploma Some College Bachelor's Graduate (%)

Educational Attainment

Murrieta Riverside County

slide-42
SLIDE 42

UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development

City of Temecula

Source: LEHD

Industry Employment Shares (%) Temecula LQ Riverside County Temecula

Other Services 11.3 13.7 1.2 Arts/Entertainment 13.7 12.0 0.9 Health Care 9.3 11.2 1.2 Logistics 11.0 10.5 1.0 Manufacturing 7.3 7.9 1.1 Construction 7.4 6.8 0.9 Admin Support 5.2 6.6 1.3 Education 7.0 5.7 0.8 Wholesale Trade 4.5 4.5 1.0 Professional Services 4.0 4.3 1.1 Public Admin 2.9 2.9 1.0 Information 5.2 2.9 0.5 Ag/Mining 2.8 2.6 0.9 Accommodation/food 2.4 2.1 0.9 Financial Activities 1.4 1.8 1.3

*Highlighted industries indicate LQ > 1

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Less than HS HS Diploma Some College Bachelor's Graduate (%)

Educational Attainment

Temecula Riverside County

slide-43
SLIDE 43

UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development

City of Wildomar

Source: LEHD

Industry Employment Shares (%) Wildomar LQ Riverside County Wildomar

Arts/Entertainment 13.7 12.0 0.9 Other Services 11.3 11.5 1.0 Health Care 9.3 10.8 1.2 Logistics 11.0 10.8 1.0 Construction 7.4 9.1 1.2 Manufacturing 7.3 8.1 1.1 Education 7.0 6.4 0.9 Admin Support 5.2 5.9 1.1 Wholesale Trade 4.5 4.3 1.0 Professional Services 4.0 4.1 1.0 Information 5.2 3.8 0.7 Public Admin 2.9 3.1 1.1 Ag/Mining 2.8 2.8 1.0 Accommodation/food 2.4 1.9 0.8 Financial Activities 1.4 1.7 1.2

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Less than HS HS Diploma Some College Bachelor's Graduate (%)

Educational Attainment

Wildomar Riverside County

*Highlighted industries indicate LQ > 1

slide-44
SLIDE 44

UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development

City Level Taxable Sales

Soure: CDTFA

Taxable Sales 2020 YTD (Q2, 000s) 1-Year % Growth 1-Year Abs Chg (000s)

Riverside 19,269.5

  • 1.7
  • 326.9

Lake Elsinore 450.7 2.5 11.2 Murrieta 744.6

  • 6.4
  • 51.1

Wildomar 81.3

  • 7.6
  • 6.6

Corona 1,731.3

  • 8.1
  • 152.5

Riverside 2,578.7

  • 8.8
  • 249.1

Menifee 340.1

  • 9.8
  • 36.8

Temecula 1,373.4

  • 13.9
  • 220.8

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 Q2-10 Q4-10 Q2-11 Q4-11 Q2-12 Q4-12 Q2-13 Q4-13 Q2-14 Q4-14 Q2-15 Q4-15 Q2-16 Q4-16 Q2-17 Q4-17 Q2-18 Q4-18 Q2-19 Q4-19 Q2-20 $, Millions

Aggregated 5-City Taxable Sales (Lake Elsinore, Murrieta, Temecula, Wildomar, Menifee)

slide-45
SLIDE 45

UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development

Home Sales

Source: CoreLogic & California Association of Realtors

  • 50%
  • 40%
  • 30%
  • 20%
  • 10%

0% 10% 20% 30% Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 YOY Growth

Inland Empire Home Sales Growth

Riverside San Bernardino

City Q3-20 Sales YOY Growth (%) YOY Change (Abs.) Chino 206 30.4 48 Murrieta 743 20.0 124 Temecula 667 15.8 91 Rancho Cucamonga 470 8.8 38 Corona 792 6.3 47 Victorville 570 0.4 2 Perris 230

  • 1.7
  • 4

Ontario 306

  • 3.8
  • 12

Riverside 944

  • 5.9
  • 59

San Bernardino 577

  • 15.0
  • 102

Moreno Valley 456

  • 16.2
  • 88

Fontana 489

  • 19.2
  • 116
slide-46
SLIDE 46

UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development

§ This is the Covid-19 economy

It’s looking like a bleak winter This is an economy of winners and losers The fallout has affected lower income workers disproportionately Significant damage has been sustained Public budgets are strained Will Congress act?

§ The outlook for the second half of 2021 looks positive

Better treatments Vaccine Strong rebound in leisure and hospitality sectors We will see continued strength in the housing market

slide-47
SLIDE 47

UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development

Thank You

taner.osman@ucr.edu | ucreconomicforecast.org