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Jeff Jensen
Bachelor of Science | Meteorology | Iowa State University Broadcast Meteorologist | Alabama, Kentucky, Iowa and Nebraska Customer Service Representative | Northern Natural Gas | Omaha, Nebraska | 2008 - present
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2019 Winter Forum Weather Overview and Forecast September 19, 2019 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
2019 Winter Forum Weather Overview and Forecast September 19, 2019 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
2019 Winter Forum Weather Overview and Forecast September 19, 2019 Jeff Jensen Bachelor of Science | Meteorology | Iowa State University Broadcast Meteorologist | Alabama, Kentucky, Iowa and Nebraska Customer Service Representative | Northern
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Fall: September – October – November Winter: December – January – February Spring: March – April – May
The Seasons
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Review of Jeff’s 2018 – 2019 Forecast
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TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
Last Fall’s Forecast
September – October – November 2018 2018 2018
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Hurricane Michael
October 9, 2018 Category 5 storm – winds of >157 mph
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Hurricane Michael
October 10, 2018 Mexico Beach, Florida
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Hurricane Michael
October 10, 2018 Mexico Beach, Florida
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Early Snow!
October 14, 2018 3.4” measured in LaVista, Nebraska 2016
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Early Snow!
October 14, 2018 Over 6” Southwest of Lincoln, Nebraska 2016
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Early Snow!
October 14, 2018
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November 1, 2018
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November 30 –December 2, 2018
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November 30 –December 2, 2018
Around 5-6” in Omaha, Nebraska
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TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
Last Fall’s Forecast
September – October – November 2018 2018 2018
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TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
Actual Fall Departures
September – October – November 2018 2018 2018
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December 1, 2018
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TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
Last Winter’s Forecast
December – January – February 2018 2019 2019
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Dry West Heading into Winter
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January 1, 2019
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Mid Winter Bitter Cold
January 30, 2019 The latest Polar Vortex slides south
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Mid Winter Bitter Cold
January 30, 2019 The latest Polar Vortex slides south
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Mid Winter Bitter Cold
January 30, 2019 The latest Polar Vortex slides south
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Mid Winter Bitter Cold
January 30, 2019 The latest Polar Vortex slides south
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February 1, 2019
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Late Winter Blizzard
February 23-24, 2019 Omaha, Nebraska2016
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Late Winter Blizzard
February 23-24, 2019 Omaha, Nebraska2016
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Late Winter Blizzard
February 23-24, 2019 Near Emmetsburg, Iowa 2016
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TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
Last Winter’s Forecast
December – January – February 2018 2019 2019
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TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
Actual Winter Departures
December – January – February 2018 2019 2019
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1sthalf of winter 2ndhalf of winter
Actual Winter Departures
December – January – February 2018 2019 2019
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1sthalf of winter 2ndhalf of winter
Actual Winter Departures
December – January – February 2018 2019 2019
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TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
Last Spring’s Forecast
March – April – May 2019 2019 2019
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March 1, 2019
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Early Spring Severe Weather
March 3, 2019 Near Beauregard, Alabama
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Early Spring Severe Weather
March 3, 2019 Over a ½ hour lead time
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Early Spring Severe Weather
March 3, 2019
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Early Spring Severe Weather
March 3, 2019 Near Beauregard, Alabama – EF-4 damage/23 dead
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Early Spring Severe Weather
March 3, 2019 Winds estimated over 170 mph!
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Early Spring Severe Weather
March 3, 2019 Winds estimated over 170 mph!
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Northern’s Market Area temperatures were 13% colder than normal during the heating season of November 1 – March 31.
2018 – 2019 Heating Season Results
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2018 – 2019 Heating Season Results
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Midwest Mid-March Major Flooding
Rain + quick snowmelt + ice jams = flooding
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Midwest Mid-March Major Flooding
Rain + quick snowmelt + ice jams = flooding
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Midwest Mid-March Major Flooding
Rain + quick snowmelt + ice jams = flooding
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Midwest Mid-March Major Flooding
Rain + quick snowmelt + ice jams = flooding
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Midwest Mid-March Major Flooding
Rain + quick snowmelt + ice jams = flooding
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Midwest Mid-March Major Flooding
Rain + quick snowmelt + ice jams = flooding
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April 1, 2019
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Much Snowier Than a Normal Winter!
Omaha’s ‘Normal’ Seasonal Snowfall
27.1”
2018 – 2019 Snowfall
52.7” (+25.6”)
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Another Snowy Season North!
Minneapolis’ ‘Normal’ Seasonal Snowfall
45.3”
2018 – 2019 Snowfall
77.1” (+32.1”)
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May 1, 2019
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TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
Last Spring’s Forecast
March – April – May 2019 2019 2019
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TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
Actual Spring Departures
March – April – May 2019 2019 2019
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Weather Trivia Time
What was the heaviest snow in San Antonio in the past 5 years?
1.9” December 7, 2017 3.0” January 5, 2016 0.7” December 28, 2018 1.2” March 1, 2019
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Weather Trivia Time
What was the heaviest snow in San Antonio in the past 5 years?
1.9” December 7, 2017 3.0” January 5, 2016 0.7” December 28, 2018 1.2” March 1, 2019
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Long Range Forecasting
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The Woolly Bear Caterpillar Technique
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The Woolly Bear Caterpillar Technique
Omaha, Nebraska September 1, 2019
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Sunspots
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Sunspot Cycles
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Recent Sunspot Cycles
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Current Sunspot Activity
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Snow Cover in the Northern Hemisphere
September 15, 2019
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Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies
September 12, 2019
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Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies
Warm waters
September 12, 2019
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El Nino Unlikely for Winter 2019– 2020
September 2019
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El Nino Unlikely for Winter 2019– 2020
September 2019
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Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model from Australia
CURRENT FORECAST
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Last Winter was a ‘Weak El Nino Winter’
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Monthly Historic El Nino/La Nina Data
1950-today
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Monthly Historic El Nino/La Nina Data
1950-today
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A Look at Jeff’s 2019 – 2020 Forecast
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TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
NOAA Fall Outlook
September – October – November 2019 2019 2019
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TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
Jeff’s Fall Forecast
September – October – November 2019 2019 2019
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TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
NOAA Winter Outlook
December – January – February 2019 2020 2020
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The Weather Network’s Winter Outlook
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Jeff’s Winter Forecast
December – January – February 2019 2020 2020
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
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TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
NOAA Spring Outlook
March – April – May 2020 2020 2020
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Jeff’s Spring Forecast
March – April – May 2020 2020 2020
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
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To conclude…….
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FALL: Most of the nation – Near normal to slightly below normal temperatures east Pacific NW/West Coast – Above normal temperatures Most of the country – Near normal rainfall WINTER: SPRING:
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FALL: Most of the nation – Near normal to slightly below normal temperatures east Pacific NW/West Coast – Above normal temperatures Most of the country – Near normal rainfall WINTER: West of Rockies – Mild Temperatures East of Rockies – Slightly below normal temperatures Less snow than last winter Southeast – Below normal temperatures/below normal precipitation SPRING:
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FALL: Most of the nation – Near normal to slightly below normal temperatures east Pacific NW/West Coast – Above normal temperatures Most of the country – Near normal rainfall WINTER: West of Rockies – Mild Temperatures East of Rockies – Slightly below normal temperatures Less snow than last winter Southeast – Below normal temperatures/below normal precipitation SPRING: Most of the nation – Mild temperatures New England – Cooler than normal Southeast – Drier than normal Rest of nation – Near normal rainfall
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That’s a wrap for this year!
Thank You!
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