2018-2020 LVIV 25 October 2019 THE TRIANGLE OF ANALYSIS ISSUES - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Torino Process 2018-2020

LVIV 25 October 2019

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THE TRIANGLE OF ANALYSIS

POLICIES ISSUES ASSESSMENT

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THE ETF ASSESSMENT

• Human capital development issues, for example:
• Demographic development
• Education attainment
• Labour market performance
• Education sector reforms and policy responses
• Main government strategies and reform initiatives
• New legislation and policies related to VET and skills development
• ETF assessment
• How VET policies fit with the overall developments and “big picture”
• Main areas and topics which require immediate attention and action

SELECTED HUMAN CAPITAL INDICATORS ON UKRAINE

Data source: ETF KIESE

Indicator 2013 2017 2018 Total Population (,000.000) 45,37 42,41 42,22 Relative size of youth population (age group 15- 24, %) 16.7 13.7 13.2

SELECTED HUMAN CAPITAL INDICATORS ON UKRAINE

Data source: ETF KIESE

(1) Population structure (%)

Year

0-24 2015 25.9 25-64 58.2 65+ 15.9 0-24 2025 26.0 25-64 55.1

• 3,1%

65+ 18.8

(2) Average years of schooling 2017 11.3 (3) Expected years of schooling 2017 15 (4) Learning-adjusted years of schooling 2017 10.2 (5) Adult literacy 2015 99.8

DECREASING YOUTH POPULATION

Share of youths (0-24) in the population

Data source: ETF KIESE

5 10 15 20 25 30 Armenia Azerbaijan Belarus Georgia Republic of Moldova Ukraine 2011 2014 2017

HIGH AND IMPROVING EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT

Data source: Eurostat

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 EU-28 Ukraine (¹) Georgia Moldova Armenia (²) Azerbaijan

Proportion of 30-34 year olds having completed tertiary education, 2017 (%)

RELATIVELY HIGH ACTIVITY – 2007-2017

IN UKRAINE ACTIVITY AND EMPLOYMENT RATES HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY DECLINING

Data source: Eurostat

0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 Ukraine (³) Moldova Georgia Belarus (²) Azerbaijan Armenia (¹) EU-28

Employment rates (15-64)

2017 2012 2007 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 Ukraine (¹) Moldova Georgia Belarus Azerbaijan Armenia EU-28

Activity rates (persons aged 15-64), 2017

LABOUR MARKET OUTCOMES BY EDUCATION LEVELS, 2017

Data source: National statistics 2017

EXCESS LABOUR SUPPLY RELATIVE TO DEMAND, BY EDUCATION, 2005–2017

Data source: WB calculations based on LFS data

% 50% 100 % 150 % 200 % % 250 Tertiary university education (ISCED 5A/6) Short-cycle tertiary education (ISCED 5B) Secondary education (ISCED 2-4) Primary education (ISCED 1) 2005 2010 2015* 2017*

HIGHER LEVEL OF EDUCATION HELPS COMBAT THE POVERTY

Data source: School to work transition study, 2016

Poor Not poor, but below the national average Around the national Average Fairly well off Well off

EDUCATION LEVEL OF MIGRANTS BY DESTINATION COUNTRY

% 2 % 2 % 9 % 3 % 6 % 20 35 % 36 % % 30 % 5 2 46 % 34 % 24 % 34 % 24 % % 17 % 19 % 18 % 17 19 % 16 % % 11 % 13 % 16 26 % 0% 20 % 40 % 60 % 80 % 100 %

Poland Russia Italy Labour migrants Population*

complete higher education basic higher or incomplete higher education vocational general secondary education basic secondary or primary education

Data source: SSSU, LFS 2017

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KEY ISSUES EMERGING ON THIS

• Decreasing working age and youth population
• Higher education remains popular because it provides the best labour

market outcomes and seems to be still the best way to combat poverty and unemployment

• Skills mismatch – underutilisation of skills due to “overeducation” – people

with higher education background work in semi-skills occupations

• Difference in wage premium is insignificant at secondary VET level, pre-

tertiary and basic higher education (bachelor) in similar fields of studies

• Limited trust and confidence in vocational qualifications vs HE diploma
• Increasing migration in recent years – skilled workers with VET background

move for better jobs and working/living conditions (particularly to Poland)

NUMBER OF GRADUATES OF VOCATIONAL AND TECHNICAL SCHOOLS, COLLEGES AND UNIVERSITIES, 1990–2013

Data source: Kupets, 2016

EVOLUTION OF VET INSTITUTIONS AND PARTICIPATION

Data source: SSSU 2018, data excludes VET institutions in Crimea and territories in Donetsk and Luhansk regions which are not controlled by the Ukrainian government

Year Number of institutions Number of students Share related to 1990 Students per institution (thousands) Share related to 1990 1990

1246 643,400 100% 516 100%

2000

970 524,600 82% 541 105%

2010

976 433,500 67% 444 86%

2013

968 391,200 61% 404 78%

2017

756 269,400 42% 356 69%

2018

736 255,000 39,6% 347 67%

SELECTED DATA ON PROFESSIONAL PRE-TERTIARY EDUCATION

Data source: MOES 2018

2010/2011 2015/2016 2018/2019 Percentage

Number of institutions 483 387 370

Number of students 351,444 230,110 199,926

 Enrolled after 9th grade

147069

73.60%

 Enrolled after 11th grade 52857

26.44%

New enrolment 35101

 Enrolled in junior specialist programmes

33963

96.76%

 Enrolled in bachelor programmes 1138

3.24%

Source of funding per number of students (%)  National budget 36.3 36.0 13.5  Local budget 21.8 28.1 52.6  Private tuition fees 41.8 35.6

33.9

 Enterprises 0.1 0.3 0.0

EDUCATION: PUBLIC SPENDING OR INVESTMENT?

Data source: Eurostat

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Public expenditure on education as a share of GDP, 2007-2017

(% of GDP)

Ukraine (¹)(²) EU-28 (¹)

• Out of 6 % of GDP spent on education, 2.8 % of GDP went to general secondary

education, 1.3 % to higher education institutions, 0.9 % to preschool and early childhood education and 0.3 % to VET.

ACCESS TO QUALITY LEARNING

Source : WB calculations based on EDEBO database. 125 130 135 140 145 150 155 160 165 170 175 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Urban Rural Urban Rural State-funded places Privately funded contract places Number Average EIT score

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KEY ISSUES EMERGING ON THIS

• Number of enrolments decreasing at all levels of education
• Number of education providers also decreasing at all levels of education but

the average size per student raises concern on efficiency and high costs

• High expenditure in education (6% of GDP + 1% of private expenditure)

raises concerns on efficiency and maintenance of large institutional networks

• Convergence of secondary VET and pre-tertiary professional education –

majority of enrolments after 9th grade

• High selectiveness of the education system and rural/urban disparities raise

equity concerns

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ISSUES ON LIFELONG LEARNING

• Low participation in lifelong learning – EU average 11.8% (2018), lowest

participation in Romania 0.9%, EU 2020 benchmark target 15% Indicator 2017 2018 Participation in training/lifelong learning (age group 25-64) by sex (%) Source: SSSU, LFS data Total 0.8 0.8 Male 0.8 0.9 Female 0.8 0.7

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KEY POLICY RESPONSES IN 2014-2019

• New legislation:
• Law on HE in 2014
• Law on Education 2017
• Law on Professional Pre-Tertiary Education 2019
• In the pipeline: Law on General Education & Law on VET
• Policies affecting VET and skills development
• Decentralisation of VET to regional level
• New Ukrainian School concept
• Concept on Modern VET until 2027
• Concept of Dual VET (2018-2019)
• Government Programme 2019-2023

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KEY ISSUES EMERGING ON THIS

• Law on Education (2017) provides strategic framework for education sector

reforms

• The Law stipulates a new structure for the entire education system but it’s

aligned with old institutional framework

• Potential risks or problems: education sub-systems vaguely connected with

each other and focus on resolving their own specific problems - fragmentation

• Missing? : A holistic policy to develop a new lifelong learning system

where different parts of the education system are well integrated with fair and harmonised rules and principles which guide the policy implementation for the benefit of learners, economy and society

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THE WAY FORWARD – POSSIBLE OPTIONS

Integration of provision at upper secondary level after 9th grade

• Horizontal – secondary VET and general secondary education
• To create attractive pathways to both academic and vocational

tracks without institutional barriers in line with the New Ukrainian School concept

• To reduce stigma related to VET and segregation of young

learners at early age to increase VET participation

• To develop an alternative matriculation exam to replace EIT as

an obligation for VET graduates to enrol in higher education

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THE WAY FORWARD – POSSIBLE OPTIONS

Differentiating provision at professional pre-tertiary level to distinguish it from secondary VET provision Vertical integration – secondary VET & professional pre-tertiary institutions

• To harmonise and merge VET programmes provided now by different

types of institutions (VET schools, colleges and technikums) for efficiency gains after 9th grade Manage optimisation of school networks in a fair and transparent way

• To set the national guidelines on optimisation with clear criteria ensuring

a) labour market relevance, b) efficiency of using teaching and learning resources, c) access of learners in line with their residential distribution

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THE WAY FORWARD – POSSIBLE OPTIONS

Differentiating provision at professional pre-tertiary level to distinguish it from secondary VET provision

• Admission to pre-tertiary level only after upper secondary level

(11/12th grade)

• To develop labour market relevant qualifications for more

complex occupations e.g. in health care or technical fields to be provided by pre-tertiary institutions

• To engage employers and the National Qualifications Agency

in defining and accrediting short-cycle programmes

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THE WAY FORWARD – POSSIBLE OPTIONS

Develop skills and competences of teachers and use them more efficiently

• Through integration of general and vocational education at upper secondary

level – make qualified teachers of general education track teach also learners in VET programmes

• To abolish the Soviet legacy of dividing theory and practice by VET teachers

and trainers/instructors and their status and roles

• To review the competence requirements of modern VET teachers by making

the work and practical experience (at least 3 years) compulsory, creating a (short-cycle) pedagogical programme to qualify them and awarding them accordingly to make the teaching profession attractive

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THE WAY FORWARD – POSSIBLE OPTIONS

Enhancing the capacity of providers to respond to and raise lifelong learning demand

• To increase the autonomy of providers and incentivise them

to provide lifelong learning courses

• To build the capacity of teachers to train adults
• To integrate gradually VET provision for young people and

adults through recognition of prior learning, creating individual learning trajectories and modularising new VET qualifications

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THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!