2018-19 Student t Enroll llment Updates Prepared for Pattonville - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
2018-19 Student t Enroll llment Updates Prepared for Pattonville R-III Board of Education November 27, 2018 by Matt Goodman, Ph.D. Presentation on Outline ne 2018-19 Enrollment Update and Enrollments Projection Comparison and
Prepared for Pattonville R-III Board of Education November 27, 2018 by Matt Goodman, Ph.D.
❖2018-19 Enrollment Update and
❖Monitoring Student Counts
▪ Placement Requests ▪ Staffing Implications
❖Monitoring for Trends within the Year ❖Next Steps
Student Enrollment
Enrollments and Projections Monitoring Student Counts Monitoring for Trends within the Year Next Steps
Location 2017-18 2018-19 Difference Bridgeway 439 418
Drummond 720 720 Parkwood 458 455
RemingtonTraditional 368 381 +13 Rose Acres 362 332
Willow Brook 490 492 +2 Holman Middle 582 611 +29 Pattonville Heights Middle 639 655 +16 Pattonville Sr. High 1735 1720
DISTRICT TOTAL 5793 5787
Location 2017-18 2018-19 Difference Bridgeway 439 418
Drummond 720 720 Parkwood 458 455
RemingtonTraditional 368 381 +13 Rose Acres 362 332
Willow Brook 490 492 +2 Holman Middle 582 611 +29 Pattonville Heights Middle 639 655 +16 Pattonville Sr. High 1735 1720
DISTRICT TOTAL 5793 5787
❖Cohort data compiled by building by grade
▪ Example – 1st grade 2013-14, 2nd grade 2014-15, 3rd grade 2015-16, 4th grade 2016-
17
▪ For transition grades – K and 6 – used previous year value
❖Two types of projection generated for each grade in building
▪ Three Year Average ▪ Forecast/Algorithm – prediction of future value from existing values
✓ Predicted value is a y-value for a given x-value (y – enrollments; x – year) ✓ Known values are existing x and y values (enrollments and years), and the new value is
predicted using linear regression.
❖Midpoint between the two approaches has also been created
▪ Sum the three year average and algorithm value and divide by two
Location 8.16.18 9.26.18 11.7.18 3 Year Average Projection Algorithm Projection Midpoint of Projections Bridgeway 408 418 417 420 422 421 Drummond 702 720 725 723 748 736 Parkwood 450 455 469 435 480 458 RemingtonTraditional 380 381 381 380 383 382 Rose Acres 336 332 328 354 341 348 Willow Brook 479 492 497 482 487 485 Holman Middle 608 611 609 587 583 585 Pattonville Heights Middle 654 655 659 663 675 669 Pattonville Sr. High 1717 1720 1708 1696 1716 1706
❖2018-19 Enrollment Update and
❖Monitoring Student Counts
▪ Placement Requests ▪ Staffing Implications
❖Monitoring for Trends within the Year ❖Next Steps
Student Enrollment
Enrollments and Projections Monitoring Student Counts Monitoring for Trends within the Year Next Steps
Variation in enrollment patterns Potential Enrollees and transfer requests Factors Influencing Optimal Resource Allocation Staffing
PROBLEM How do we maximize enrollment and staffing efficiencies while maintaining class size standards and while also knowing potential enrollees and transfer requests exist? SOLUTION Create a shared spreadsheet and engagement process amongst district staff/departments to monitor the status of class sizes, available seats, potential enrollees, and transfer requests by building by grade on a daily basis.
Information Technology Research Support Student Services Human Resources Timely and Actionable Information on Enrollment and Staffing
Generates a daily file from SIS Manages master tracking file Manages requests and potential enrollees Monitors class sizes, Communicates with Building Principals and District Administration, Summarizes and reports
Began generating daily files on July 17 and tracking has continued.
Reference Values Daily Inputs Calculated Values
❖ Class size ceilings, 85%, 95%,
and 100% values by grade levels (K-1, 2, 3-4, 5-6, 7-12)
❖ Number of sections by grade by
building
❖ Daily enrollment counts by
building by grade Before the 1st day of school
❖ Number of transfer requests ❖ Number of potential enrollees ❖ Reference values by building by
grade
❖ Available space to 85%, 95% and
100% – difference between actual counts and available seats to each threshold
❖ Class Sizes – current, with 1
section reduction, with 1 section addition, if requests taken, if potential enrollees taken, if requests and potential enrollees taken
❖2018-19 Enrollment Update and
❖Monitoring Student Counts
▪ Placement Requests ▪ Staffing Implications
❖Monitoring for Trends within the
❖Next Steps
Student Enrollment
Enrollments and Projections Monitoring Student Counts Monitoring for Trends within the Year Next Steps
❖2018-19 Enrollment Update and
❖Monitoring Student Counts
▪ Placement Requests ▪ Staffing Implications
❖Monitoring for Trends within the
❖Next Steps
Student Enrollment
Enrollments and Projections Monitoring Student Counts Monitoring for Trends within the Year Next Steps
❖Continue tracking and monitoring enrollment daily ❖Examine “Entry Codes” ❖Generate 2019-20 enrollment projections for use in the 2018-19