2018-19 Student t Enroll llment Updates Prepared for Pattonville R-III Board of Education November 27, 2018 by Matt Goodman, Ph.D.
Presentation on Outline ne ❖ 2018-19 Enrollment Update and Enrollments Projection Comparison and Projections ❖ Monitoring Student Counts ▪ Placement Requests ▪ Staffing Implications Monitoring Student Next Steps Student Enrollment Counts ❖ Monitoring for Trends within the Year ❖ Next Steps Monitoring for Trends within the Year
Enrollment by District and nd Bui uildi ding ng 2017-18 and nd 2018-19 19 Location 2017-18 2018-19 Difference Bridgeway 439 418 -21 Drummond 720 720 0 Parkwood 458 455 -3 RemingtonTraditional 368 381 +13 Rose Acres 362 332 -30 Willow Brook 490 492 +2 Holman Middle 582 611 +29 Pattonville Heights Middle 639 655 +16 Pattonville Sr. High 1735 1720 -15 DISTRICT TOTAL 5793 5787 -6
Enrollment by District and nd Bui uildi ding ng 2017-18 and nd 2018-19 19 Location 2017-18 2018-19 Difference Bridgeway 439 418 -21 Drummond 720 720 0 Parkwood 458 455 -3 RemingtonTraditional 368 381 +13 Rose Acres 362 332 -30 Willow Brook 490 492 +2 Holman Middle 582 611 +29 Pattonville Heights Middle 639 655 +16 Pattonville Sr. High 1735 1720 -15 DISTRICT TOTAL 5793 5787 -6
2018-19 Enrollments and nd Proje ojection on Comp omparison by Leve vel and nd Bui uildi ding ng
Proje ojection on Metho hodo dology ❖ Cohort data compiled by building by grade ▪ Example – 1 st grade 2013-14, 2 nd grade 2014-15, 3 rd grade 2015-16, 4 th grade 2016- 17 ▪ For transition grades – K and 6 – used previous year value ❖ Two types of projection generated for each grade in building ▪ Three Year Average ▪ Forecast/Algorithm – prediction of future value from existing values ✓ Predicted value is a y-value for a given x-value (y – enrollments; x – year) ✓ Known values are existing x and y values (enrollments and years), and the new value is predicted using linear regression. ❖ Midpoint between the two approaches has also been created ▪ Sum the three year average and algorithm value and divide by two
2018-19 Fo Forecasts vs. Bui uilding Enrollments Location 8.16.18 9.26.18 11.7.18 3 Year Algorithm Midpoint of Average Projection Projections Projection Bridgeway 408 418 417 420 422 421 Drummond 702 720 725 723 748 736 Parkwood 450 455 469 435 480 458 RemingtonTraditional 380 381 381 380 383 382 Rose Acres 336 332 328 354 341 348 Willow Brook 479 492 497 482 487 485 Holman Middle 608 611 609 587 583 585 Pattonville Heights Middle 654 655 659 663 675 669 Pattonville Sr. High 1717 1720 1708 1696 1716 1706
Presentation on Outline ne ❖ 2018-19 Enrollment Update and Enrollments Projection Comparison and Projections ❖ Monitoring Student Counts ▪ Placement Requests ▪ Staffing Implications Monitoring Student Next Steps Student Enrollment Counts ❖ Monitoring for Trends within the Year ❖ Next Steps Monitoring for Trends within the Year
Moni onitor oring ng for Staffing and nd Stude udent Requ quests Factors Influ luen encin ing Optim imal l Re Resource e Allo locatio ion for Studen ent Learnin ing PROBLEM SOLUTION How do we maximize enrollment Create a shared spreadsheet and and staffing efficiencies while engagement process amongst Variation in maintaining class size standards district staff/departments to enrollment patterns and while also knowing potential monitor the status of class sizes, enrollees and transfer requests available seats, potential enrollees, Factors exist? and transfer requests by building Influencing Optimal by grade on a daily basis. Resource Allocation Potential Enrollees Staffing and transfer requests
Col ollabo boration on Across Depa partme ments Generates a daily file from SIS Began generating daily files on Information July 17 and tracking has continued. Technology Monitors class sizes, Timely and Communicates with Actionable Human Research Building Principals and Manages master Information on District Administration, Resources Support tracking file Enrollment and Summarizes and Staffing reports Student Services Manages requests and potential enrollees
Sha hared Spr preadshe heet: Reference Value ues, Daily Inpu puts, and nd Calculated Values Reference Values Daily Inputs Calculated Values ❖ Class size ceilings, 85%, 95%, ❖ Daily enrollment counts by ❖ Reference values by building by and 100% values by grade levels building by grade grade Before the 1 st day of school (K-1, 2, 3-4, 5-6, 7-12) ❖ Available space to 85%, 95% and ❖ Number of sections by grade by ❖ Number of transfer requests 100% – difference between building ❖ Number of potential enrollees actual counts and available seats to each threshold ❖ Class Sizes – current, with 1 section reduction, with 1 section addition, if requests taken, if potential enrollees taken, if requests and potential enrollees taken
Reference Value ues – Samp mple
Daily Input nputs – Sampl mple
Calculated Values – Sampl ple
Calculated Values – Sampl ple
Calculated Values – Sampl ple
Calculated Values – Sampl ple
Presentation on Outline ne ❖ 2018-19 Enrollment Update and Enrollments Projection Comparison by Level and Projections and Building ❖ Monitoring Student Counts ▪ Placement Requests Monitoring Student Next Steps Student ▪ Staffing Implications Enrollment Counts ❖ Monitoring for Trends within the Year Monitoring ❖ Next Steps for Trends within the Year
Presentation on Outline ne ❖ 2018-19 Enrollment Update and Enrollments Projection Comparison by Level and Projections and Building ❖ Monitoring Student Counts ▪ Placement Requests Monitoring Student Next Steps Student ▪ Staffing Implications Enrollment Counts ❖ Monitoring for Trends within the Year Monitoring ❖ Next Steps for Trends within the Year
Next xt Steps ps ❖ Continue tracking and monitoring enrollment daily ❖ Examine “Entry Codes” ❖ Generate 2019-20 enrollment projections for use in the 2018-19 Enrollment and Staffing Timeline
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