2010-2012 Electric and Gas Energy Efficiency Programs: Three-Year - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

2010-2012 Electric and Gas Energy Efficiency Programs: Three-Year Review and Trend Analysis

EEAC Consultants September 10, 2013 (draft)

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Introduction

• Review of the performance of the first Three-Year Plan,

specifically the EE programs in 2010-2012, with comparisons to the Plans and goals

• Initial review of the 2010-2012 performance and trends;

additional follow up with the PAs is planned

• Data are from the PAs (data from the individual PAs plus

statewide compilations where available)

• There are some remaining data inconsistencies
• PAs provided a factual reporting of what happened in

2010-2012 (see PA presentation distributed on 9/6); the EEAC consultants are providing observations and additional trend analysis

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Key Findings/Observations

• Many important program advances in 2010-2012
• Savings and benefits increased significantly each year

(higher goals and higher actual achievements)

• Savings and benefits were short of 2010-2012 Plan goals

(missed savings and benefits relative to the Plan), particularly in the C&I sector in 2011 and 2012

• Missed annual savings add up and have a cumulative effect
• When annual savings goals are missed it is challenging to

catch up in future years that already have high goals

• The underinvestment in 2010-2012 relative to Plan budget

was significant, and a portion of the underinvestment could have been used to achieve 100% of the goals

• Differences in performance across sectors and PAs

Total Benefits, 2010-2012

4 $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 Benefits ($, Millions)

Planned Versus Achieved Statewide Total Benefits: 2010‐2012 Electric and Gas

Planned Statewide Electric Benefits Planned Statewide Gas Benefits Achieved Statewide Electric Benefits Achieved Statewide Gas Benefits

93%, ($97.0M) 90%, ($207.5M) 93%, ($188.0M) 2010 2011 2012 Significant increases in goals and in benefits achieved each year 2010‐2012 achieved benefits of $5,468M vs. $5,960M in the Plan (92% of Plan) Missed total electric and gas benefits in 2010‐2012: $492M

Electric Benefits, 2010-2012

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$0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 2010 2011 2012 Total Benefits ($, Millions)

Planned Versus Achieved Statewide Total Benefits: 2010‐2012 Electric

Plan Report

97% 88% 91% ($36M) ($205M) ($198M) Missed Total Electric Benefits in 2010‐2012: $440 Million (9% of Plan)

Electric Annual Savings

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‐ 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 2010 2011 2012 Annual Savings (MWh)

Planned Versus Achieved Statewide Annual Savings: 2010‐2012 Electric

Plan Report

99% 87% 88% (5,366) (117,330) (130,048)

Cumulative Effect of Missed Annual Savings

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50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 2010 2011 2012 Missed Annual Savings (MWh)

Cumulative Missed Annual Savings: 2010‐2012 Electric

2010 2011 2012

252,743 122,695 5,366 117,330 130,048 The cumulative annual savings impact missing at the end of 2012 is 252,743 MWh (equivalent to 21% of the 2013 annual savings goal) Missed annual savings in 2010‐2012: 380,804 MWh (32% of 2013 goal) *The values for missed savings in this chart will be lower once accounting for the one‐year measure life of behavior programs.

Missed Annual Savings were Mainly in the C&I Sector

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14,449 5,272 20,184 (6,125) (10,029) (2,875) (13,690) (112,573) (147,356) (5,366) (117,330) (130,048) (160,000) (140,000) (120,000) (100,000) (80,000) (60,000) (40,000) (20,000) ‐ 20,000 40,000 2010 2011 2012 Over or Under Achievement of Savings Goals, MWh

Over or Under Achievement of Annual Savings Goals: 2010‐2012 Electric

Residential Low Income C&I Statewide

10% 2% 7% 26% 33% 8% 3% 17% 19% 1% 13% 12% GOAL Percentages are Over or Under Achievement as a % of the Annual Savings Goal

Underinvestment in 2010-2012

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$0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 2010 2011 2012 PA Costs ($, Millions)

Planned Versus Actual Statewide Total PA Costs: 2010‐2012 Electric

Plan Report

85% 66% 78% ($42.7M) ($140.1M) ($110.7M) Underinvestment in 2010‐2012: $294 Million (25% of Plan)

Underinvestment in 2010-2012 was Mainly in the C&I Sector

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(11) (15) (2) (8) (9) (8) (23) (117) (101) (43) (140) (111) ($160) ($140) ($120) ($100) ($80) ($60) ($40) ($20) $0 $20 $40 2010 2011 2012 Over or Under Expenditure of Plan Budget ($, Millions)

Over or Under Expenditure of Plan Budget: 2010‐2012 Electric

Residential Low Income C&I Statewide

12% 12% 1% 24% 22% 14% 16% 46% 34% 15% 34% 22% PLAN Percentages are Over or Under Expenditures as a % of the Plan Budget The C&I sector accounts for $242M (82%) of the $294M underinvestment in 2010‐2012.

Achievement of Electric C&I Annual Savings Goals by PA

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(1,761) (70,582) (89,749) (162,092) 4,737 (35,122) (36,954) (67,339) (7,542) (11,678) (12,906) (32,126) (8,352) (7,114) (4,952) (20,418) (772) 11,924 (2,795) 8,357 (13,690) (112,573) (147,356)

(200,000) (180,000) (160,000) (140,000) (120,000) (100,000) (80,000) (60,000) (40,000) (20,000) 20,000 40,000

2010 2011 2012 2010‐2012

Over or Under Achievement of Savings Goals, MWh

Over or Under Achievement of C&I Annual Savings Goals: 2010‐2012 Electric by PA

NGRID NSTAR WMECO CLC Unitil Statewide

1% 25% 2% 3% 21% 57% GOAL 25% 28% 20% 11% 10% 8% 28% 25% 25% 40% 31% 42% 53% 38% 222% (273,619) 15% 19% 17% Percentages are Over or Under Achievement as a % of the Annual Savings Goal

~ ~

Underinvestment of Electric C&I Budgets by Individual PA

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(8) (53) (43) (104) (12) (55) (54) (121) (1) (3) (2) (6) (2) (5) (2) (9) (0) (0) (1) (2) (23) (117) (101) ($180) ($160) ($140) ($120) ($100) ($80) ($60) ($40) ($20) $0 $20

2010 2011 2012 2010‐2012

Over or Under Expenditure of Plan Budget ($, Millions)

Over or Under Expenditure of C&I Plan Budget: 2010‐2012 Electric by PA

NGRID NSTAR WMECO CLC Unitil Statewide

13% 31% 18% 16% 7% 25% PLAN 49% 35% 36% 46% 37% 36% 22% 11% 13% 54% 21% 34% 27% 33% 15% 34% 46% Percentages are Over or Under Expenditures as a % of the Plan Budget

~

(242) 34%~

Spending Only a Portion of the Underinvestment Would Achieve Goals

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1,110,161 980,113 130,048 $498M $387M $41M $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 $400 $450 $500 $550 ‐ 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 Plan Savings Plan Budget Actual Savings Actual Expenditures PA Costs ($ Million) Annual Savings (MWh) Savings Additional Savings Spending Additional Spending

Spending only a portion of the $111M underinvestment in 2012 would have achieved the goals

2013 Trends (Q2 Electric)

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34% 23% 27% 21% 25% 18% 31% 21% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Total C&I Total C&I Savings Spending Q2 as % of Plan Goal

Q2 % of Plan Numbers, 2012 vs. 2013 Electric

2012 2013

Gas Benefits, 2010-2012

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Gas Annual Savings

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Cumulative Effect of Missed Annual Gas Savings

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‐ 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 2010 2011 2012 Missed Annual Savings (Therms)

Cumulative Missed Annual Savings: 2010‐2012 Gas

2010 2011 2012

2,340,996 5,458,390 6,419,981 3,117,394 961,591

Missed Annual Gas Savings were in C&I and Residential

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(1,720) 32 (352) (338) 201 1,011 (283) (3,351) (1,621) (2,341) (3,117) (962) (4,000) (3,500) (3,000) (2,500) (2,000) (1,500) (1,000) (500) ‐ 500 1,000 1,500 2010 2011 2012 Over or Under Achievement of Savings Goals (Therms, 000)

Over or Under Achievement of Annual Savings Goals: 2010‐2012 Gas

Residential Low Income C&I Statewide

26% 0% 3% 37% 18% 81% 5% 36% 14% 17% 17% 4% Percentages are Over or Under Achievement as a % of the Annual Savings Goal GOAL For 2010‐2012, Low Income gas savings were 27% higher than goal. C&I savings were 20% below goal, and Residential savings were 8% below goal.

Gas Expenditures in 2010-2012

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Expenditure Patterns Varied; Underinvestment in Gas C&I

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$(5,522) $453 $7,033 $(4,237) $(5,614) $5,480 $(5,356) $(4,052) $(9,067) $(15,116) $(9,213) $3,445 $(20,000) $(15,000) $(10,000) $(5,000) $‐ $5,000 $10,000 2010 2011 2012 Over or Under Expenditure of Plan Budget ($, 000)

Over or Under Expenditure of Plan Budget: 2010‐2012 Gas

Residential Low Income C&I Statewide

13% 1% 10% 26% 22% 19% 27% 15% 26% 19% 9% 3% Percentages are Over or Under Expenditures as a % of the Plan Budget PLAN The C&I sector accounted for $18.5M (88%) of the $20.9M gas underinvestment in 2010‐2012.

2013 Trends (Q2 Gas)

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42% 19% 36% 22% 26% 14% 34% 17% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Total C&I Total C&I Savings Spending Q2 as % of Plan Goal

Q2 % of Plan Numbers, 2012 vs. 2013 Gas

2012 2013

OTHER SLIDES FOR REFERENCE

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Missed Electric Lifetime Savings

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200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 1,800,000 2010 2011 2012 Missed Lifetime Savings (MWh)

Cumulative Missed Lifetime Savings: 2010‐2012 Electric

2010 2011 2012

1,652,527 137,966 84,837 1,514,561 53,129

Variations Across PAs in 2012

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2.1% 2.0% 2.3% 1.8% 1.5% 1.9% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% Statewide NGRID NSTAR WMECO CLC Unitil

Savings as a % of Sales

1.1% 1.2% 0.9% 0.8% 0.4% 0.8% 1.9% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% 1.2% 1.4% 1.6% 1.8% 2.0% Statewide NGRID NSTAR CMA NEG Berkshire FGE

Savings as a % of Sales

Electric Gas

• 2012 performance varied widely across the PAs, based on

energy savings as a % of retail energy sales

• Yet energy savings as a % of sales is a relative indicator,

and is based on the retail energy sales in each PA territory

Variations Across PAs in 2012

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Electric Savings as % of Sales

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2.07% 1.97% 2.31% 1.85% 1.45% 1.43% 0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% Statewide NGrid NSTAR WMECO CLC Unitil

2012 Annual Savings as Percent of 2012 Retail Sales, Total for All Sectors

Statewide Goal: Energy Savings Equivalent to 2.35% of Retail Sales 88% 82% 98% 85% 78% 66%

% values at the bottom of the columns show savings as % of individual PA goal