2009 Ozone Season OTC Fall Meeting 2009 November 5 th Baltimore MD - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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2009 Ozone Season OTC Fall Meeting 2009 November 5 th Baltimore MD - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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2009 Ozone Season OTC Fall Meeting 2009 November 5 th Baltimore MD Baltimore, MD Current Design Values Design Values Projected 2007-09 Design Value Note: Includes two years of cooler and wetter weather and a d down economy. 2009 data

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SLIDE 1

2009 Ozone Season

OTC Fall Meeting 2009 November 5th Baltimore MD Baltimore, MD

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SLIDE 2

Current Design Values Design Values

Projected 2007-09 Design Value Note: Includes two years of cooler and wetter weather and a d Only 2 sites th 1997 down economy. 2009 data not yet final

  • ver the 1997

standard Note: Red (■) and Black (+) symbols represent monitors > 75ppb Ozone

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SLIDE 3

OTR Ozone Day Trends 1997-2009* OTR Ozone Day Trends 1997 2009

0.153

150 160 0.16 0.17 106 105

0.131 0.135 0.133 0.133 0.137 0.130 0.123 0.121 0.130 0.125 0.112 0 109

110 120 130 140 0.12 0.13 0.14 0.15 78 71 67 84 66 87 92 88 66 80

0.109

80 90 100 110 D a y s 0.08 0.09 0.10 0.11 P P M 52 37 54 67 34 30 48 36 47 66 60 57 66 57 34 40 50 60 70 # 0 04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 P 30 26 11 10 20 30 40 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 0.00

# days > 84 ppb # days > 75 ppb MAX 8-hr

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SLIDE 4

Comparison of 4th High OzoneValues Comparison of 4 High OzoneValues

2005 2005 2007 2007 2009 2009 Note: Red (■) and Black (+) symbols represent monitors > 75ppb Ozone Note: Red (■) and Black (+) symbols represent monitors > 75ppb Ozone

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SLIDE 5

Ozone Days vs High Temperature Days

New Hampshire 1985 - 2008

60

y g p y

Years sorted in order of Number of days per year above 85F

40 50

ays

2003 2007 2005

Years sorted in order of increasing number of hot days Expected number of ozone exceedance days per year, based on temperature (orange bars)

20 30

umber of D

2006 2004 2008

based on temperature (black line) Actual number of ozone exceedance days per year

10

N

y p y (blue line) Recent years highlighted (blue circles blue circles)

1 9 9 6 1 9 8 6 2 8 1 9 9 2 2 2 4 1 9 9 7 2 6 1 9 8 9 1 9 8 5 1 9 8 7 1 9 9 8 2 3 1 9 9 9 1 9 9 4 1 9 8 8 1 9 9 3 1 9 9 2 7 2 1 2 2 1 9 9 1 2 5 1 9 9 5

Year

The number of exceedances drop below the ozone trend line in recent The number of exceedances drop below the ozone trend line in recent years indicating that the recent decline in ozone levels is not solely due to a decrease in summer temperatures.

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SLIDE 6

Emissions and Modeling Update

OTC Fall Meeting 2009 November 5th Baltimore MD Baltimore, MD

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SLIDE 7

Emission Inventory Update Emission Inventory Update

  • Stakeholder outreach
  • A preview of point source trends
  • Review of inventory data sources
  • Next steps
  • Key issues
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SLIDE 8

2007 Point Sources External Review of Annual Data External Review of Annual Data

September 2 3 2009

  • September 2-3, 2009

Presentation at the OTC Committee Meeting

  • October 6 2009

October 6, 2009 Draft 2007 Point Source files posted by MARAMA for Stakeholder review.

  • October 21 at 10:00 A.M

Conference call with states and stakeholders C t d b N b 3 2009

  • Comments due by November 3, 2009
  • November 2009

Completion of 2007 point source inventory Completion of 2007 point source inventory

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SLIDE 9

Top 125 NOx Sources in OTR+ VA

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SLIDE 10

Emission Changes in Top 125 NOx Sources Draft 2007 vs 2002 Draft 2007 vs. 2002

Barbara to add here from MARAMA Slides

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SLIDE 11

Emission Changes in Top 125 NOx Sources Draft 2007 vs 2009 BOTW Draft 2007 vs. 2009 BOTW

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SLIDE 12

Area Source Improvements p

  • Agriculture Ammonia

Agriculture Ammonia

  • Updated with 2007 Census of Agriculture.
  • Residential Wood Combustion
  • EPA/PECHAN Microsoft Access Tool with

2007 population updates.

  • Wildfires
  • EPA has offered a 2007 wildfire inventory
  • Agricultural Burning
  • States to provide
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SLIDE 13

Area Source Improvements p

  • Other Area Sources

Other Area Sources

  • States are reviewing methods proposed

nationally EPA 2008 d ft i t ill b t ti i t

  • EPA 2008 draft inventory will be starting point

States will provide data to convert EPA’s 2008 States will provide data to convert EPAs 2008 estimates to 2007.

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SLIDE 14

Temporal Allocation – Point/Area

  • Goal: reflect variability in emissions that affect

air quality – seasonal, daily, hourly

  • Will work with other regions EPA and contractor
  • Will work with other regions, EPA, and contractor

to develop methods focusing on

  • CEM data for EGUs

CEM data for EGUs

  • Seasonal ammonia emissions
  • Residential wood combustion

Hi h El t i D d D

  • High Electric Demand Days
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SLIDE 15

Onroad Mobile Source Data

  • EPA requires use of new MOVES model

EPA requires use of new MOVES model

  • Until new model can be run, previous data

will be used

  • Options under review
  • 1. States to provide input data for NESCAUM to

run MOVES 2 St t t MOVES d id h l

  • 2. States to run MOVES and provide hourly

emissions data for their counties

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SLIDE 16

Nonroad Mobile Source Data Nonroad Mobile Source Data

  • Started with EPA 2007 run of the

National Mobile Inventory Model (NMIM)

  • States reviewed and modified the NMIM input data

H h ld d l ti d t d t d

  • Household and population data were updated.
  • MACTEC reran the NMIM model

MACTEC reran the NMIM model

  • States are reviewing NMIM Output.
  • Marine, air, and rail categories
  • States are reviewing marine data from EPA
  • RPOs updating rail data (ERTAC) – Class I RR data
  • States are reviewing airport data from EPA
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SLIDE 17

Emission Inventory Next Steps Emission Inventory Next Steps

  • November 3, 2009 – Stakeholders

November 3, 2009 Stakeholders comment on 2007 point source annual emissions & stack parameters emissions & stack parameters

  • November ‘09 – Contractor finalizes 2007

Point Source Annual Modeling Inventory

  • t Sou ce

ua

  • de

g e to y

  • December ’09 – States provide area

source data/factors sou ce da a/ ac o s

  • December ’09 – EPA provides final

MOVES model

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SLIDE 18

Key Inventory Issues

  • Timely availability of new MOVES model and

i t d id associated guidance

  • Timely availability of base case and future year
  • Timely availability of base case and future year

estimates of emissions data from other regions

  • EPA approval of alternative methods for

forecasting EGU emissions

  • Choice of future years for ozone planning
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SLIDE 19

Modeling Update Modeling Update

  • SIP Modeling Platform
  • HEDD Screening
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SLIDE 20

SIP Modeling Platform

  • OTC Platform Upgrades:

– Most recent version of CMAQ

g

Most recent version of CMAQ – Updated carbon bond chemistry – Updated BEIS emissions model for biogenic emissions – 2002 MM5 meteorology (upgraded processing) gy ( pg p g) – 2005 emissions:

  • interpolated between 2002 and 2009 for all sectors except

EGU

  • EGU Emissions obtained from LADCO and upgraded by
  • EGU Emissions obtained from LADCO and upgraded by

NJDEP for MANE-VU States – Upgraded Emission Processing Model (SMOKE)

  • Emissions for base year (2005) and future year 2012

(“NoCAIR” with 40% across the board NOx reductions - except biogenics) used for platform comparisons

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SLIDE 21

Upgrades to Modeling Platform Upgrades to Modeling Platform

2012 40% NOx Reduction Case Produces higher future ozone design values than

  • lder version with
  • lder version with

the same emissions data New Pl tf All data points still under 75ppb with new Platform 75ppb with new platform! Old Platform

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SLIDE 22

Additional Modeling Platform Upgrades

  • Biogenic emissions based on MEGAN

– Comparative analysis with BEIS

  • New Emission Base year - 2007
  • Temporalized 2007 EGU emissions from

EPA/CAMD

  • On road emissions using MOVES model
  • Canadian emissions based on 2005/2006
  • 2007 meteorology developed with WRF
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SLIDE 23

HEDD Screening

  • Purpose
  • Status
  • Next Steps
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SLIDE 24

High Electricity Demand Units Tend to Operate

  • n High Ozone Days

g y

Highest emissions occur

  • n highest ozone days
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SLIDE 25

Load Following Boilers and Peaking Units Often Have High NOx Emission Rates

Pounds NOx per hour

Peaking Units Base-Load Load Following Base Load

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SLIDE 26

Default Emissions Modeling Techniques Miss Important Fluctuations

August 2002 Hourly NOx Emissions in the MANE-VU Region from CEM Data and SMOKE-Processed Point Source Files (Adjusted to Remove the Effect of non-CEM-matched Point Sources)

Crosswalk matching was successful only to about 85% or so in accounting for

250000 300000

Emission peaks lost b emission model

accounting for emissions of NOx over the domain.

200000 50000 r CEM H l D t

by emission model

100000 150000 lbs/hr CEM Hourly Data SMOKE Hourly Data 50000 8/1/2002 0:00 8/3/2002 0:00 8/5/2002 0:00 8/7/2002 0:00 8/9/2002 0:00 8/11/2002 0:00 8/13/2002 0:00 8/15/2002 0:00 8/17/2002 0:00 8/19/2002 0:00 8/21/2002 0:00 8/23/2002 0:00 8/25/2002 0:00 8/27/2002 0:00 8/29/2002 0:00 8/31/2002 0:00

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SLIDE 27

HEDD Work To-Date

  • Determine data needs for temporal modeling

p g

  • f HEDD units
  • Research modeling process for handling

Research modeling process for handling HEDD

  • Propose methodology for assessing
  • Propose methodology for assessing

importance of HEDD sources on air quality Draft Work Plan a ailable for comment

  • Draft Work Plan available for comment
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SLIDE 28

HEDD Screening Modeling HEDD Screening Modeling

Phase 1 - NJDEP will perform HEDD screening p g with 2005 emissions and meteorology

  • complete in early 2010
  • Test procedures
  • Provide early results

Phase 2 – SIP Quality HEDD Screening Modeling

  • conducted in early 2010
  • Work done with SIP Quality Modeling Platform
  • Episode Focus Days: June 27 and August 3, 2007

(15 to 20 episodic days) (15 to 20 episodic days)

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SLIDE 29

HEDD Screening Modeling

Four Recommended HEDD Simulations:

1 2007 b i NEW h l d t

g g

1. 2007 base case using NEW hourly data process 2. 2007 base using emission model default profiles 3. 2007 New process with all identified HEDD units turned off 4 2007 N ith di l d HEDD it 4. 2007 New process with displaced HEDD capacity redistributed

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SLIDE 30

Next Steps

  • Finalize 2007 Base Emissions Inventory

S U i d d B d E i i

  • Secure Upwind and Boundary Emissions
  • Complete Model Platform Upgrades
  • BEIS/MEGAN Analysis
  • Additional Sensitivity Analyses

Additional Sensitivity Analyses

  • Screening of Control Measures

HEDD S i R

  • HEDD Screening Runs
  • Model Performance Evaluation
  • Stakeholder Meeting in Spring 2010
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SLIDE 31

Questions

Emissions Inventory: Susan Wierman (Swierman@marama.org) Modeling Lead: Gopal Sistla (Gxsistla@gw.dec.state.ny.us) HEDD Modeling: Jeff Underhill (Jeffrey.Underhill@des.nh.gov) Jeff Underhill (Jeffrey.Underhill@des.nh.gov) Committee Work and Schedule: Barbara Kwetz (Barbara.Kwetz@state.ma.us)