2008 NYISO COMPREHENSIVE RELIABILITY PLAN John P. Buechler NYISO - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

2008 NYISO COMPREHENSIVE RELIABILITY PLAN

NPCC Governmental/Regulatory Affairs Advisory Group Saratoga Springs, NY September 23, 2008

John P. Buechler

NYISO Executive Regulatory Policy Advisor

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NYISO NYISO NYISO NYISO’ ’s s Comprehensive Comprehensive Comprehensive Comprehensive Reliaiblity Reliaiblity Reliaiblity Reliaiblity Planning Process Planning Process Planning Process Planning Process (CRPP) (CRPP) (CRPP) (CRPP)

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A Multi-staged Process

• Reliability Needs Assessment
• Forecast local and statewide demand
• Includes facilities and resources likely to

be added

• Identifies reliability needs, utilizing

applicable criteria

• Requests for Solutions
• “All-source” (Generation / Transmission /

Demand-Side)

• Market-based
• Regulated Backstop
• Comprehensive Reliability Plan
• Analyzes proposed solutions to determine

whether they meet identified needs

• Preference for “market based” solutions
• Identify “regulated backstop” solutions (in

the event market-based solutions not forthcoming)

Requests for Solutions

(Market-based & Regulatory)

Comprehensive Reliability Plan (CRP) Reliability Needs Assessment (RNA)

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Board Approval of Plan Market-Based Responses

• Generation
• DSM
• Merchant Transmission

Regulated Responses

• Transmission
• May consider alternatives
• TO & non-TO proposals

NYISO Formulates Comprehensive Reliability Plan (CRP) NYISO to Publicize Reliability Needs Assessment NYISO Performs Reliability Needs Assessment (RNA) NYISO Evaluates Market-Based Responses, Regulated Responses and TO Updates To Determine Whether They Will Meet the Identified Reliability Needs NYISO Issues Request for Solutions “Gap” Solutions by TOs

No viable/timely market or regulated solution to an identified need

Board Approval of Plan

CRPP Flow Chart

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Process Results to Date

The 2008 CRP is the culmination of the

NYISO’s third planning cycle. In each cycle, the market has responded with project proposals to meet identified reliability needs.

More than 3,000 MW of market-based

projects, submitted during the NYISO’s first two planning process cycles, are moving forward on schedule.

Over 7,000 MW of new power plants and

merchant transmission projects have come into operation in New York since 2000.

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2008 Comprehensive Reliability Plan

The Comprehensive

Reliability Plan (CRP) provides a blueprint for meeting the reliability needs of the state’s bulk electricity grid

• ver a 10-year planning

horizon.

The NYISO Board of

Directors approved the 2008 CRP in July.

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2008 CRP Summary

• The 2008 RNA determined that additional resources would

be needed over the 10-year study period in order for the New York Control Area (NYCA) to comply with all applicable reliability criteria.

• The NYISO solicited and received proposals for market-

based and regulated solutions to the reliability needs identified in the RNA.

• The 2008 CRP determined that proposed market-based

solutions, together with implementation of Transmission Owner planned upgrades to the bulk power system, meet or exceed reliability requirements through 2017.

• No action needs to be taken at this time to implement a

regulated backstop solution or a alternative regulated solution to address the reliability needs.

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Plan Risk Factors

• The CRP report identifies a number of factors that could

affect the plan, including:

• the absence of a streamlined siting process for new generating

facilities,

• fuel diversity and fuel supply infrastructure concerns
• dependence on capacity from neighboring regions and the related

impact of the forward capacity markets in those regions,

• the value of long-term price certainty for market-based projects,
• the potential for additional plant retirements due to economic or

environmental factors,

• the results of regulations initiated to comply with ozone standards,
• the impact of the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) and

its planned auctions of emission allowances, and

• the effects on electricity demand from implementation of New York

State’s Energy Efficiency Portfolio Standard (EEPS) .

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2008 CRP: Appendix

Market-based

Solutions

Regulated Backstop

Solutions

Alternative

Regulated Solutions

Plan Risk Factors

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Market-based Solutions

A C E F I J H B D G K

Empire Generation Project

(Zone F - 635 MW)

Gas Turbine NRG Astoria Repowering

(Zone J - 520 MW)

Simple Cycle GT Indian Point

(Zone H - 300 MW)

Combined Cycle Bergen

(Zone J - 550 MW)

Demand-Side Management

(Special Case Resources)

300 MW -- Zones F,G,H,I, and J 125 MW -- Zones G,H, and J

Transmission

PJM – Zone J

Controllable AC Transmission –VFT Linden VFT (300 MW) Back-to-Back HVDC, AC Line HTP (660 MW) Back-to-Back HVDC, AC Line Harbor Cable (550 MW)

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Market Based Solutions

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Planning Horizon Year MW Market Solutions Cumulative Need

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Regulated Backstop Solutions

• First Five Years – 2008 to 2012
• None Required- Updated TO Plans Satisfy Needs
• UDRs Treated as Firm Capacity
• Second Five Years – 2013 to 2017
• 500 MW of DSM in Zone J
• 500 MW of new generation and/or DSM in Zone J
• 500 MW of new generation and/or DSM in Zone G
• 300 MW of new generation and/or DSM in Zone B
• 300 MW of new generation and/or DSM in Zone K
• A new 345 kV transmission line between Zones F and G
• Permits the location of generation and DSM in upstate zones,

rather than Zone G.

• Two alternatives proposed which would use existing R-O-W
• 300 MW of new combined cycle generation in Zone B

submitted Individually

• Sufficient to satisfy identified Reliability Needs

based upon their proposed locations and scheduled implementation

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Regulated Backstop Solutions

CRP 2008 NYCA Resources As Percent of NYCA Peak Load With TO Updated Plans, Responsible TO Backstop Solutions of 2,350 MW, and Poletti in Service in 2009 Current Installed Capacity Requirement is 115%

60.00% 67.25% 74.50% 81.75% 89.00% 96.25% 103.50% 110.75% 118.00% 125.25% 132.50% 139.75% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Planning Horizon Year Resource Margin as a % of the Peak Load External Resource of 3280 Regulated Back Stop Special Case Resources NYCA Generating Capacity

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Alternative Regulated Solutions

New York Regional Interconnect

1200 MW 500kv DC line from Edic to Rock Tavern

Mirant

New 540 MW CC plant at existing Lovett Station

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2008 CRP Summary

• The Reliability Needs Assessment (RNA)

determined that additional resources would be needed over the 10-year study period in order for the New York Control Area (NYCA) to comply with all applicable reliability criteria.

• The NYISO has determined that under the

conditions studied, including TO updates, sufficient market-based resource additions to the NYCA are planned or under development such that the NYCA can meet reliability criteria throughout the 10-year Study Period.

• The NYISO has determined that no action needs

to be taken at this time to implement a regulated backstop solution or alternative regulated solution to address the reliability needs.

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2008 CRP Required Actions

• The plan consists of the following actions, which

will result in a net addition of 2,350 MW of resources by 2017, as well as improvement in transmission system transfer limits from the baseline by 2012:

• Implementing certain Transmission Owner plans,

which include transmission upgrades, such as the addition of capacitor banks at the Millwood Substation and the installation of the Con Edison M29 project.

• Developing upwards of 2,350 MW of market based

resources from the 3,380 MW of merchant generation and transmission projects that have been proposed for New York.

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2008 CRP Actions 2008 CRP Actions (Cont’d)

(Cont’d)

• At least 1,000 MW of these resources should be

located in New York City or have unforced capacity delivery rights (UDRs) into New York City.

• At least 1,000 MW of resources should be located

in the Lower Hudson Valley

• 300 MW of additional resources could be located in

New York State as a whole, including Upstate New York

• The geographical distribution of resources can

vary in conjunction with transmission additions

• Maintain the voltage performance of the system at

the bulk system level

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Plan Risk Factors

At least 2,350 MW of resources must

proceed on schedule to meet the Reliability Needs

NYISO will continue to track progress – quarterly

monitoring

Implementing Transmission Owner plans

Con Edison M29 transmission project, capacitor banks

at Millwood substation, firm capacity in conjunction with UDRs, planned non-bulk power system projects

Fuel diversity

All planned generator additions are natural gas

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Plan Risk Factors (Cont’d)

Dependence on capacity from

neighboring regions

Northeast Coordinated System Plan to address

resource adequacy on a regional basis

Market solutions stated need for long-

term price certainty

e.g., long term contracts, forward capacity markets,

new capacity zone in lower Hudson Valley

Forward Capacity Market development discussions

Risk of additional plant retirements due

to pending environmental rules

NYISO to continue studies of potential impacts in 2009

RNA

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Approved by the NYISO Board

The 2008 Comprehensive Reliability Plan

was approved by the NYISO Board of Directors on July 15, 2008

Posted on the NYISO website, at:

https://www.nyiso.com/public/services/plan ning/reliability_assessments.jsp

The New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) is a not The New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) is a not-

• for

for-

• profit corporation that began operations in 1999. The NYISO oper

profit corporation that began operations in 1999. The NYISO operates ates New York New York’ ’s bulk electricity grid, administers the state s bulk electricity grid, administers the state’ ’s wholesale s wholesale electricity markets, and performs comprehensive reliability plan electricity markets, and performs comprehensive reliability planning for ning for the state the state’ ’s bulk electricity system. s bulk electricity system.

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www.nyiso.com www.nyiso.com