2008 First Half Results Zurich - 4 September 2008 Agenda 1. - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
2008 First Half Results Zurich - 4 September 2008 Agenda 1. - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
2008 First Half Results Zurich - 4 September 2008 Agenda 1. Tradition at a glance 2. Industry dynamics 3. 2008 first half performance 4. CFT share on SWX 5. Strategic outlook 1 1. Tradition at a glance Roadmap based on long term view on the
1
Agenda
- 1. Tradition at a glance
- 2. Industry dynamics
- 3. 2008 first half performance
- 4. CFT share on SWX
- 5. Strategic outlook
- 1. Tradition at a glance
3
Roadmap based on long term view on the industry
H1 2008 : solid growth
- Turnover up
- 31.8% in constant currency terms
- 16.5% in current currency terms
- Operating profit CHF 99.8m
- Profit before tax CHF 103.4m
- Net profit from continuing operations CHF 58.8m
- Net profit group share CHF 46.5m
Strategic rationale
- Critical size
- Organic growth
- Sound balance sheet
- Attractive dividend policy
A fast evolving industry
- Consolidation around global players
- Structural changes in market structure
- Short and medium term impact of the credit crisis
4
One of the very few global leaders of the sector
- Significant scale
- Diverse sources of revenues across the three time zones
- A global product offer covering exchange-traded and OTC instruments
- Strong positioning in high-growth derivatives markets
Tradition is the third largest Interdealer Broker (« IDB ») in the world
M C H F
Global positioning
peer group overview – H1 2008 turnover*
*Turnover includes brokerage revenues net of clearing fees and information services GBP and USD translated in CHF at H1 2008 average exchange rates For ICAP, estimates from Reuter s Know ledge as of 12 August 2008
1,507 970 788 573
ICAP (e) T ullett Prebon Tradition GFI
5
Smoothing the process of price discovery Sourcing counterparty and bringing the various market participants together Showing liquidity and market depth Providing transparency Facilitating the development of the secondary market Primarily in the Over-the-Counter (OTC) markets
- More recently expanding to exchange-traded instruments
Highly skilled and efficient execution capabilities Holding no position in the market Having an independent role Earning commission for arranging trades at pre-agreed fees
IDBs play a critical role
6
Key revenue drivers
Revenue sources - Execution
- Agency & Matched principal
Drivers – Volumes + Market penetration
- Macroeconomic performance/uncertainty
- Interest rate movements
- Budget imbalances, bond issuance, credit cycle
- Markets volatility/liquidity
- Emerging economies
- Financial innovation
- Technology
- Activity of new investor groups
9.3 8.1 7.0 6.0 3.7 4.0 4.3 4.7 5.1 5.4 0 ,0 1 ,0 2 ,0 3 ,0 4 ,0 5 ,0 6 ,0 7 ,0 8 ,0 9 ,0 10 ,0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2 005 20 06 20 07e 20 08e 200 9e
USD bn
Growth in IDB revenues
Source: Celent
7
2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 2004 2005 2006 2007 Jan-May 2007 Jan-May 2008
5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Transactions volumes have grown substantially over time
1000 2000 3000
65% 62%
Global Foreign Exchange market turnover Global OTC derivatives market turnover
200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2007 Q1 2008
500 1500 2500 3500 4500 5500 6500 7500 8500 Assets under management Number of funds
USD bn McKinsey Global Institute Growth in the hedge fund industry BIS - Triennial Central Bank Survey Average daily turnover in April in USD bn FIA – Growth in global futures and options trading In millions of contracts and annual growth rates
28%
100 000 200 000 300 000 400 000 500 000 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
To tal IR and currency o utstan ding s T otal cred it defau lt swap o utstan ding s To tal equity d erivative o utstandin gs
ISDA - Market Survey Notional amounts outstanding at year end in USD bn Interest rates & Currency: 29% 10yCAGR
20%
8
8 92 788 6 45 21 8 31 4 385 497 813 7 92 786 85 0 9 15 1 ,144 2 91 361 45 5 536 700 727 78 0 8 82 91 8 1,1 39 1 995 199 6 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 2 001 200 2 200 3 20 04 (**) 2 005 20 06 2 007 H1 2 008 Cur rent ex change rates Consta nt exc ha nge r ate s*
Tradition has a track record of organic growth and innovation
Turnover
1,417 1,417 1,417 1,417
(*) At 31.12.2007 (**) IFRS since 2004 EBFL excluded in 2001 2005-2006-2007 exclude discontinued activities
M C H F
222 222 222 222
- 16.2% 1997 - 2007 CAGR in current terms
- 17.1% 1997 - 2007 CAGR in 2007 constant currency terms
Founded in 1959 in Lausanne Listed on SWX since 1973 VIEL & Cie acquired Compagnie Financière Tradition in 1996
- 2. Industry dynamics
10
Market structure driving strategic thinking
IDBs Focus on market evolution 5 players with revenues above $900m Leading players in the transactional value chain Continuously seeking scale in terms
- f products & geography
Futures Brokers Increased visibility of the global leaders 2 players with revenues around $1.5bn Their transactional services smaller in size than that of global IDBs Exchanges Consolidation rush CME/CBOT/NYMEX Deutsche Borse/ISE LSE/Borsa - OMX/Nasdaq - Dubai High PE and market cap Search for efficiencies and ways to enter the OTC space
Global themes New market power paradigm Unprecedented combination of macroeconomic factors Impact of credit crisis Client segmentation Electronification Diversification of business models New cash equities execution venues O p p o r t u n i t i e s
Search for liquidity, absolute return
& efficiency in risk transfer
Portfolio diversification
& internationalisation
Emergence of new markets Convergence/Consolidation
11
1996
Space marked by demutualisation, consolidation and « coopetition »
IDBs
Imar exbuys Spectron CME acquires CMA ICE buys Creditex CME acquires NYMEX Banks announce projects Rainbow, Four Seasons & V10 CME buys CBOT Merger between LSE&Borsa Nasdaq and Borse D ubai acquire OMX Deutsche Borse acquires ISE ICE buys Chatham NYSE buys Euronext CME buys Swapstr eam Banks announce project Turquoise NYSE acquires Archi- paelago Borsa and Euronext partner to buy MTS Ipo of ICE Deutsche Börse acquires Clearstream Ipo of CME Acquisition of LIFFE by Euronext Ipo of Euronext Ipo of Deutsche Börse MF Global listed Calyon Financial and Fimat announce merger Man Financial buys R efco and Eurex US Fimat acquires Cube Refco listed and delisted Man Financial buys GNI GFI buys Trayport Tullett Prebon acquires Primex ICAP buys Link Tullett Prebon and GFI i n merger tal ks Icap buys Traiana M&A acti vity in ship broking Icap submits RIE application Icap buys EBS CSTL demerges GFI buys Amerexin the US Tullett Prebon acquires Chapdel aine Creditex merges with Creditrade GFI listed CSTL approached by VCs M&A acti vity in the energy sector (GFI/Icap) Collins Stewart buys Prebon Tullett is acquired by Collins Stewart Icap acquires Brokertec & First Brokers Tradition Icap JV partners with Volbroker Tullett buys Liberty Tradition buys Finacor Tradition and Icap for m FXO JV Exco merges with Garban Prebon buys Marshall Intercapital reverses into Exco VIEL & Cie buys Tradition
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 1999
Futures Brokers Exchanges
12
Short and long term impact of current environment
Unusual market conditions started last summer
- Sharp fall in interbank confidence
- Liquidity shortage
- Extreme levels of volatility
- > USD 500bn of write-downs
- With additional to come
- Europe representing 45% of the total
Unprecedented combination of challenges
- For financial institutions and governments
- Urgent and dramatic need for a rapid and
large recapitalisation of banks
- Disposal of assets, new opportunities for
cash rich financial institutions
- New roles for central banks
- Forced to intervene as liquidity supplier
- f « last resort »
- Managing rescue operations
- Rising structural inflation (record oil prices,
rising commodity prices)
- New geographical power distribution among
financial players
- 3. 2008 first half performance
14
39.1 56.9 92.3 81.3 676.7 596.9
46.5 58.8 103.4 99.8 689.0 788.3
H1 2007 H1 2008
H1 2008 overview
Turnover Expenses Operating profit PBT Operating margin Net profit group share Net profit from cont.
- perations
+18.9% +3.3% +12.0% +22.7% +15.4% +16.5%
M C H F
12.7% 12.0%
15
Sustained organic growth
Sector overview
H1 2008 YOY top line growth rates – current currency terms
11.6% 26.0% 11.1% 13.6% 4.8%
- 1.0%
7.4% 53.6% 16.2% 21.5% 13.3% 16.5% 17.9% 21.1% 69.0% 31.8%
BG C Partners C ME Grou p CF T Deutsche Börse G FI Group IC AP (est) ICE L S E MarketAxess MF Global Nasd aq OMX N YSE Euro next Tullett Prebon IT G Interactive Brokers Current Exchange Rates Constant Exchange R ates
Estimates from Reuters Knowl edge as of August 12 for half year figures for ICAP 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 2005 2006 2007 2008 H2 H1
Half year and yearly turnover
in current currency terms M C H F 914.7 1,144.4 1,417.1 788.3
16
11.5% 5.1% 45.0% 38.4%
Favourable market conditions for equity derivatives, commodities and rates
Turnover by product – H1 2008 bridge
400 500 600 700 800 900 1000
H 1 2 7 T u r n
- v
e r C u r r e n c i e s & i n t e r e s t r a t e s S e c u r i t i e s , c a s h & d e r i v a t i v e s C
- m
m
- d
i t i e s &
- t
h e r F
- r
e x H 1 2 8 T u r n
- v
e r
11.1% 6.3% 40.7% 41.9% Currencies & interest rates Securities, cash & derivatives Commodities Other activities
All percentages based on calculations in constant currency terms
M C H F
+18.9% +46.1% +34.2% H1 2008 H1 2007
17
Top line engines in the three time zones
Turnover by region – H1 2008 bridge
M C H F
400 500 600 700 800 900 1000
H 1 2 7 C
- n
t i n e n t a l E u r
- p
e U n i t e d K i n g d
- m
A m e r i c a s A s i a
- P
a c i f i c F
- r
e x H 1 2 8
21.0% 35.0% 9.7% 34.3% United Kingdom Asia-Pacific Continental Europe Americas
All percentages based on calculations in constant currency terms * Growth rates are calculated w ith scope of consolidation in 2007 applied to 2006 revenues
- 3.1%
+30.2% +47.6% +30.4% H1 2008
20.1% 32.2% 11.8% 35.9%
H1 2007
18
Half year operating profit Half year operating margin
in current currency terms
12.7% 10.9% 12.0%
20 40 60 80 100 120 H1 2006 H1 2007 H1 2008
8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15%
Ope ratin g profit Operating margin
M C H F
Operating profit increased by 22.7%
62.9 99.8 81.3
19
Operating margin improved to 12.7%
Positive impact of 0.5% from recovery of 2007 underperforming UK operations Sustained level of profitability in Asia-Pacific Negative impact of 1.6% from exceptional items
12.7%
- 0.1%
- 0.6%
1.1% 0.4%
- 0.1%
12.0% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% H 1 2 7 E u r
- p
e A m e r i c a s A s i a
- P
a c i f i c H Q F
- r
e x H 1 2 8
Operating margin – H1 2008 bridge
99.8
- 14.4
- 5.7
+14.7 +16.5 +7.4 81.3 30 50 70 90 110 130 H 1 2 7 E u r
- p
e A m e r i c a s A s i a P a c i f i c H Q F
- r
e x H 1 2 8
Operating profit – H1 2008 bridge
M C H F
20 705 512 347 294
ICAP (e) * Tu llett Pre bon Tradition GFI (gross brok.)
Europe: positive impact of 2007 reorganisation
Comments P&L dynamics
before HQ costs
UK France Belgium Denmark Dubai Germany Italy
- Equity derivatives, commodities and
capital markets leading the growth in the UK
- London new office under one single
management
- Turnaround of 2007 underperforming UK
- perations
- Decline outside UK
Regional positioning
peer group overview – H1 2008 turnover
9.1% 9.2% Margin H1 2007 H1 2008 +7.3% 315.0 Expenses +7.5% 347.0 Turnover Variance vs H1 2007 H1 2008
MCHF M C H F
* Estimates from Reuters Know ledge as of 12 August - regional contribution as per last company report
Luxembourg Portugal Russia South Africa Switzerland
Presence
21 USA Argentina Chili Columbia Mexico
Americas: a solid performance
Presence Comments
610 342 275 221
ICAP (e) * Tu llett Pre bon Tradition GFI (gross brok.)
- Strong top line performance across a
wide variety of products
- Good level of cost control
- Continued investment in new teams
P&L dynamics
before HQ costs
14.9% 15.0% Margin H1 2007 H1 2008 +26.3% 234.1 Expenses +26.5% 275.5 Turnover Variance vs H1 2007 H1 2008
MCHF M C H F
Regional positioning
peer group overview – H1 2008 turnover
* Estimates from Reuters Know ledge as of 12 August - regional contribution as per last company report
22
Asia-Pacific: numerous medium term opportunities
Comments
192 115 166 56
ICAP (e) * Tu llett Prebo n Tradition GFI (gross brok.)
- Benefits from expansion of product line
- Preparing for the launch in Mainland
China
- Continuously exploring new
geographies
- Sustained pace of growth at Gaitame
P&L dynamics
before HQ costs
21.3% 25.1% Margin H1 2007 H1 2008 +16.1% 124.2 Expenses +21.9% 165.8 Turnover Variance vs H1 2007 H1 2008
MCHF M C H F
Regional positioning
peer group overview – H1 2008 turnover
Presence
Japan China (Hong Kong and rep. offices in Beijing & Shanghai) India Malaysia Singapore South Korea Australia
* Estimates from Reuters Know ledge as of 12 August - regional contribution as per last company report
23
Continued focus on areas of progress
6.8 7.4 7.1 Other operating expenses 10.9 12.0 12.7 Operating margin 1.3 1.3 1.9 Amortisation & assets depreciation 60.2 59.1 58.7 Operational 1.7 5.3 6.5 42.1 7.3 67.5 H1 2006 5.2 5.2 T&E 1.5 4.9 53.0 8.0 66.7 H1 2008 1.6 Rent 5.5 Telecom & IS 46.5 Variable part / compensation cost 7.9 Administrative 67.0 Compensation costs H1 2007
In % of turnover
Brokers: 1459 - Total Staff: 2281
24
Net profit group share up 18.9%
Half year net profit group share
10 20 30 40 50 H1 2006 H1 2007 H1 2008
M C H F
40.5% 24.9% 39.9% 18.9% 36.3% 44.8%
Deutsche Börse ICAP Tullett Prebon CFT G FI
Global positioning
Peer group overview – H1 08 net profit group share growth yoy
Estimates from Reuter s Know ledge as of August 12 for ICAP * Excluding negative goodw ill in 2007
39.1 46.5 28.2 *
25
Net profit group share at CHF 46.5m
+18.9 39.1 46.5 Net profit - Group share +18.0 48.9 57.8 Prof it for the period
- 177.5
1.2
- 0.9
Net financial income +87.2 +3.3 +26.0 +12.0
- 53.7
+22.7 % change 56.9 58.8 Prof it for the periodf rom continuing
- perations
- 1.0
- 44.6
103.4 4.5 99.8 H1 2008
- 8.0
Result after tax f or the y earf rom discontinued operations
- 35.4
Income tax 92.3 Prof it before tax 9.8 Share of profit of equity accounted companies 81.3 Operating prof it H1 2007
MCHF
7.0m of non recurring profit in 2007 Increase in group normative tax rate due to higher contribution from Asia and Americas Minority interests in 4 areas Stable in % of total profit Last operation sold in H1 2008
26
104.3 160.5 Pay ables related to MP act. 30.1 9.3 Financial assets at f air Value 310.3 403.0 Trade & other payables 289.2 304.2 Trade & other receiv ables 42.9 33.7 Of which Other fin.debts * 468.8 494.6 Receiv ables related to AH act. 123.9 146.4 Of which Financial debts 139.5 204.6 Receiv ables related to MP act. 3.3 1.8 Of which Financial debts 41.2 37.2 Non-current liabilities 141.2 205.9 Non-current assets 36.0 42.3 Of which Minority interests 473.8 497.0 Pay ables related to AH act. 331.1 343.3 Cash & Cash equivalents 166.8 180.1 Short term financial debts 19.0 24.8 Other short term assets 23.7
- Liabilities held for sale
29.0
- Assets held for sale
6.2 7.2 Of which Other fin. debts * TOTA L A SSETS Current assets
MCHF
1,586.7 1,380.8
June 08
1,447.9 1,277.7
Dec 07
TOTA L LIA BILITIES Current liabilities Shareholders’ equity 1,055.2 1,240.6 1,447.9 1,586.7 327.8 308.9
Dec 07 June 08
Organic growth strategy reflected on the balance sheet
Decrease in equity explained by dividend payments (CHF 47.7m) and translation differences (CHF 30.2m) Goodwill amounts to CHF 27.5m
Note: MP act. stands for Matched Principal activities – AH act. stands for Account Holder activities * Relates to obligations under finance leases and debt linked to matched principal activities
Simplified consolidated balance sheet
27
CHF 216.4m of adjusted net funds
224.6 216.4 Net funds adjusted
- 9.4
12.0 Adjustments linked to variances in AH & MP activities 234.0 204.4 Net funds
- 3.3
- 1.8
Long term financial debt *
- 123.9
- 146.4
Short term financial debt * Dec 07 June 08 MCHF 331.1 343.3 Cash & cash equivalents Financial assets @ fair value 9.3 30.1
* Excluding obligations under fi nance l eases and debt linked to matched principal acti vities
Decrease due to dividend payments, investments and translation differences
- 4. CFT share on SWX
29
Demonstrable track record on SWX
+92% +16% +56% SMI +3898% +893% +132% CFT 28 oct 96* 10Y 5Y
0,6 0,9 1 1,25 1,5 2 4 6 6 7 8 4 *
1 9 9 6 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 2 6 2 7
Dividend policy
Based on a share w ith a nominal value of CHF 2.50 since 2002 * CHF 4.0 cash dividend per share with a nominal value of 2.50 plus one bonus share for every 25 shares held
C H F
Long term performance
since 30 Dec 2002 & 1997
At 29 August 2008, based on CFT share price of 156.8, SMI at 7238.74 * CFT all time low at the time of the controlling shareholder ’s change. CHF 3.92
- 19%
- 7%
- 16%
SPIEXX
- 18%
- 4%
- 15%
SMI
- 20%
- 38%
- 52%
Deutsche Börse
- 37%
- 39%
- 52%
GFI +6%
- 13%
- 6%
Tullett Prebon
- 3%
- 25%
- 35%
ICAP
- 19%
- 18%
- 23%
CFT 12 months 6 months Ytd As of 29 Aug. 2008
Sector overview
- Stock No.
: 1,248,815
- Listing
: SWX Zurich
- No. of shares
: 5,619,451
- Nominal value
: CHF 2.50
- Free float
: 34%*
*as of August 31st 2008
N e x t R e l e a s e Q3 results 6 November 2008
5. 5. 5.
- 5. Strategic
Strategic Strategic Strategic outlook
- utlook
- utlook
- utlook
31
Continue to build size and scale Monitoring current market environment Balanced focus between growth & margin Address the minority interests gap at the right price
Priorities going forward
Solid foundations for the future
- Track record of organic growth
- Sizeable market share
- Exposure to fast-growth markets
- Diversity of products & geographies
APPENDIX
33
Market volatilities
10 20 Feb-06 Apr-06 Jun-06 Aug-06 Oct -06 D ec-06 Feb-07 Apr-07 Jun-07 Aug-07 Oct -07 D ec-07 Feb-08 Apr-08 Jun-08 Aug-08
$/JPY $/€
10 15 20 25 Feb -06 Ap r-06 Jun -06 Aug -06 Oct-06 Dec-06 Feb -07 Ap r-07 Jun -07 Aug -07 Oct-07 Dec-07 Feb -08 Ap r-08 Jun -08 Aug -08
LBOX
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Feb-06 Apr-06 Jun-06 Aug-06 Oc t-06 Dec -06 Feb-07 Apr-07 Jun-07 Aug-07 Oc t-07 Dec -07 Feb-08 Apr-08 Jun-08 Aug-08 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 W TI Crude Volatility (historic)
Foreign exchange
historic volatilities
Source: Bloomberg
Fixed Income
Source: Bloomberg
5 15 25 35 Dec-05 F eb-06 Apr-06 Jun-06 Aug-06 Oct-06 Dec-06 F eb-07 Apr-07 Jun-07 Aug-07 Oct-07 Dec-07 F eb-08 Apr-08 Jun-08 Aug-08
VIX
Equities
Source: Reuters
Energy
In USD In %
Source: Bloomberg
34
Trading volume
Source: FIA
1 00 2 00 3 00 Jan 0 6 March Ma y Jul Sept Nov Jan 0 7 March Ma y Jul Sept Nov jan v-08 March Ma y July 10 20 30
CME Gr oup E u rex ICE Fu tu res (E u rop e) CME Group, Eurex ICE Futures
Exchange-traded derivatives
Monthlyvolumes in million contracts
Source: exchanges websites
35
FX rates
1.62 1.10 2.01
Closing rates 29 August 2008
1.61 1.61 EUR 1.05 1.02 USD 2.07 2.03 GBP
Average rates 30 June 2008 Closing rates 30 June 2008
vs CHF