2 Increase of AF RF task force near Ukrainian border Smolensk - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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2 Increase of AF RF task force near Ukrainian border Smolensk - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Strategic goal of Russian Federation Belarus Kaliningrad Arctic region 474 th separate EW center (Baranovichi); command of 11 th C; Northern fleet/OSC North : 43 rd naval communication center (Vileyka) 14 th C (80 SepMRBde, 200 th


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Kaliningrad

command of 11th АC; motor-rifle brigade and marine brigade; units of missile troops and artillery

Belarus

474th separate EW center (Baranovichi); 43rd naval communication center (Vileyka) Are planned to deploy: military base of AF RF; fighting aviation regiment

Crimea

Russian AF joint task force 31 5 00 personnel Equipment: tanks - 40, AFV’s - 583, artillery systems - 162, combat planes - 113, ships - 30, submarines - 7

“DPR/LPR”

AF RF formation 35 500 personnel Equipment: tanks- 480, AFV’s - 860, artillery systems - 940

Transnistrian region of Moldova

Russian AF operative group 1 300 personnel Equipment: AFV’s - 60, ATGM’s - 80

Abkhazia

7th military base of AF RF (Gudauta). 4 500 personnel Equipment: tanks - 49, AFV’s - 122, artillery systems - 97

Tajikistan

201st military base of AF RF (Dushanbe). 5 000 personnel Equipment: tanks - 56, AFV’s - 300, artillery systems - 80

Armenia

102nd military base of AF RF (Gyumri). 5 000 personnel Equipment: tanks - 39, AFV’s - 238, artillery systems - 28

Southern Osetia

4th military base of AF RF (Dzhava). 4 500 personnel Equipment: tanks - 40, AFV’s - 175, artillery systems - 118

Russia

Strategic goal of Russian Federation

  • Russia considers Ukraine as key element in building of strategic confrontation

line with Western nations, and keeping it’s ascendancy over post-Soviet states. Assessment:

Arctic region

Northern fleet/OSC “North” : 14th АC (80 SepMRBde, 200th SepMRBde, 61st SepMarineBde, 536th SepMisArtyBde); 45th Air and Air Defense Army

2

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488 488

Operational directions Smolensk OD

5100 40 135 50 25

Orel-Voronezh OD

8750 160 310 70 30

Don OD

54200 770 1525 960 280

Crimean OD

10830 30 370 90 50

Transnistrian OD

1200

  • 35
  • TOTAL

82780 1000 2420 1170 385

42 58 1 2 810 810 20 144 252 252 3 20 237 752 752 237 ЗВО 20 WMD OGRF 8 150 8 20 102 102 102 103 103 103 68 68 68 163 163 163 810 SMD 49 SMD 8 SMD 58

Increase of AF RF task force near Ukrainian border

22 BSF 126 126

*

Voronezh Valuyki Sevastopol Luhansk Rostov-on-Don Stavropol

RUSSIA UKRAINE

Perevalne Klintsy Boguchar

Smolensk

  • perational

direction Orel-Voronezh

  • perational direction

Don operational direction Crimean

  • perational

direction

Smolensk

BELARUS

Legend

1st echelon/ queue BTG’s 2nd echelon/ queue BTG’s

Total 28 BTGr’s

Transnistrian

  • perational

direction

Donetsk

KAZAKHSTAN

Volgograd Simferopol Temryuk

3rd echelon/ queue BTG’s

Vladikavkaz Novocherkassk

3

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Durnevo

Kherson Dnipro Kryvyi Rih

Ukraine

Belarus

KYIV

“Kadamovskiy ” range Krasnodar

100 km to Ukrainian border

50 km to Ukrainian border 240 km to Ukrainian border

Russia

4

Combat range of Russian “Iskander-M”-type missile systems deployed near the border of Ukraine

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Russian JTF in the Don Operational Direction (South-Western strategic direction)

5

2016 43 600 645 1 300 760 2018 55 000 790 1 590 1 350 2020 58 000 850 1 700 1 450

1st АC (Donetsk) since 2014

1 8A XX 2 8A XX

Luhansk Persianovskiy Donetsk Novocherkassk

8A SOUTH XXXX 150 8A/SOUTH XX

RUSSIA UKRAINE

20 8A X

Volgograd

TG TGs BTG TGs BTG TG BTG TG TG TGs

ENY ENY 8A SOUTH XXXX

HQ of Russian JTF

  • n the base of 8th Аrmy

(Novocherkassk)

1 8A XXX

2nd АC (Luhansk) since 2014

2 8A XXX

150th MR Div (Persiyanovskiy) since 2016

150 8A/SOUTH XX 20 8A X

20th SepMRBde (Volgograd) Battalion tactical groups (3-4)

SOF

Special

  • perations

forcesBat (2-3) Arty Task Group (4-5) AD Task Group (3-4)

8A

Logistics units

  • f 8th Аrmy

I I I I I I I I

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Militarization of Azov-Black Sea region

Ukraine

Taganrog

Russia

Melitopol Berdyansk Feodosia Yeysk Temryuk Primorsko-Akhtarsk

FSB Coast Guard division 27 FSB Coast Guard Group 28 FSB Coast Guard Group

6

FSB Coast Guard Group 33 FSB Coast Guard Group 21

N G

Goals of Russia:

  • Overhaul of Ukrainian-

Russian state border considering Annexation of Crimea and partial

  • ccupation of Donetsk

region

  • Seizing control over the Sea
  • f Azov and Kerch strait
  • Blocking of Ukraine’s

economic activity

  • Creating a depressive zone

in Ukrainian Azov coastal region

Number of ships and special boats in the Sea of Azov

2013 2018 2019

April January

Russian FSB Coast Guard

41 84 115

Black Sea fleet

10

Caspian flotilla

3

  • Russia is trying to exhaust economic potential of Ukraine and to feed

tension within Ukrainian security and defense sector. Assessment:

171 79 382 810

6

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Increase of Russian AF task forces in temporary occupied Crimea

UKRAINE RUSSIA

Sevastopol

127

X

22 4 22 1096 22 BSF

XXXX

Yevpatoria Simferopol Perevalne

68 22 22 AC BSF

XXX

8 22 126 22

X

The Black Sea Sea of Azov

GOAL:

Debarment of return of Crimea under Ukrainian jurisdiction Gaining full control over the Black Sea with the goal to influence the states of the region Creation of the counterbalance to US/NATO actions in the Alliance’s Eastern flank Extension of constant Russian military presence in the Mediterranean

Before annexation 12500

  • 92

24 22 26 2 2018 31500 40 583 162 122 71 7 2022 43000 100 1150 400 213 91 6

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Anticipated activity of Russia in south-western part of the Black Sea

МОLDOVA UKRAINE

“Arkhanhelske” gas field “Holitsynske” gas condensate field

ODESA KHERSON MYKOLAYIV Tarkhankut Cape

Russian “Neva-BS” radars deployed

  • n the gas platforms

(range up to 55.5 km)

CHORNOMORSK

Drilling platform “Syvash” Drilling platform “Petro Hodovanets” Drilling platform “Tavryda”

“Odeske” gas field

Drilling platform “Ukrayina”

Exercises areas near international shipping routes

8

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Shift of the balance of force in the Black Sea in advantage of Russia Creation of preconditions for increasing the scale of the armed aggression against Ukraine and use of the armed forces against other nations Fueling frozen conflicts in Moldova, Georgia and Azerbaijan Increasing number of dangerous incidents in air and at sea Militarization of other regions including the Baltic Sea and the Mediterranean Sea Russian economic activity blockade of other ports in the region growing in scale

Consequences of Russia’s militarization of the Azov-Black Sea region

9

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Key accomplishments: Growth of Defence Budgeting

10

The Law of Ukraine on National Strategy enacting security and defence spending on the level of at least 5 % GDP, including 3 % GDP for defence forces +18% GDP

(12)

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Perspectives Five fundamental components

  • f defence reform development:

Effective defence management, including integrated civil democratic control and a new command and control system functioning in accordance with NATO principles Capability based defence planning corresponding with med-term State`s budgetary procedures Defence procurements: by import – abroad due to new authorities of the Defence Ministry, in Ukraine – in line with European regulations

11

Perspective forces structure designed based on an optimal set of capability owners Integrated civil-military capabilities system defending the national interests with involvement of political, diplomatic and military means (“Soft and Hard”)

1) 2) 3) 4) 5)

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12

constant strong pressure on Russia increased presence in the Black Sea-Azov Region deployment of a constant international mission for monitoring of security situation supporting the efforts aimed at release of imprisoned sailors supporting of Euro-Atlantic integration of Ukraine enhancement of bilateral defence cooperation Expectations

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Directions

13

continues Canadian advisory support in accordance with defence reform tasks transition to the operational level of training in the framework of Operation “UNIFIER” invigoration of the military-technical cooperation, signing up respective arrangement participation in the investments and infrastructure projects military training and education