2 Increase of AF RF task force near Ukrainian border Smolensk - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
2 Increase of AF RF task force near Ukrainian border Smolensk - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Strategic goal of Russian Federation Belarus Kaliningrad Arctic region 474 th separate EW center (Baranovichi); command of 11 th C; Northern fleet/OSC North : 43 rd naval communication center (Vileyka) 14 th C (80 SepMRBde, 200 th
Kaliningrad
command of 11th АC; motor-rifle brigade and marine brigade; units of missile troops and artillery
Belarus
474th separate EW center (Baranovichi); 43rd naval communication center (Vileyka) Are planned to deploy: military base of AF RF; fighting aviation regiment
Crimea
Russian AF joint task force 31 5 00 personnel Equipment: tanks - 40, AFV’s - 583, artillery systems - 162, combat planes - 113, ships - 30, submarines - 7
“DPR/LPR”
AF RF formation 35 500 personnel Equipment: tanks- 480, AFV’s - 860, artillery systems - 940
Transnistrian region of Moldova
Russian AF operative group 1 300 personnel Equipment: AFV’s - 60, ATGM’s - 80
Abkhazia
7th military base of AF RF (Gudauta). 4 500 personnel Equipment: tanks - 49, AFV’s - 122, artillery systems - 97
Tajikistan
201st military base of AF RF (Dushanbe). 5 000 personnel Equipment: tanks - 56, AFV’s - 300, artillery systems - 80
Armenia
102nd military base of AF RF (Gyumri). 5 000 personnel Equipment: tanks - 39, AFV’s - 238, artillery systems - 28
Southern Osetia
4th military base of AF RF (Dzhava). 4 500 personnel Equipment: tanks - 40, AFV’s - 175, artillery systems - 118
Russia
Strategic goal of Russian Federation
- Russia considers Ukraine as key element in building of strategic confrontation
line with Western nations, and keeping it’s ascendancy over post-Soviet states. Assessment:
Arctic region
Northern fleet/OSC “North” : 14th АC (80 SepMRBde, 200th SepMRBde, 61st SepMarineBde, 536th SepMisArtyBde); 45th Air and Air Defense Army
2
488 488
Operational directions Smolensk OD
5100 40 135 50 25
Orel-Voronezh OD
8750 160 310 70 30
Don OD
54200 770 1525 960 280
Crimean OD
10830 30 370 90 50
Transnistrian OD
1200
- 35
- TOTAL
82780 1000 2420 1170 385
42 58 1 2 810 810 20 144 252 252 3 20 237 752 752 237 ЗВО 20 WMD OGRF 8 150 8 20 102 102 102 103 103 103 68 68 68 163 163 163 810 SMD 49 SMD 8 SMD 58
Increase of AF RF task force near Ukrainian border
22 BSF 126 126
*
Voronezh Valuyki Sevastopol Luhansk Rostov-on-Don Stavropol
RUSSIA UKRAINE
Perevalne Klintsy Boguchar
Smolensk
- perational
direction Orel-Voronezh
- perational direction
Don operational direction Crimean
- perational
direction
Smolensk
BELARUS
Legend
1st echelon/ queue BTG’s 2nd echelon/ queue BTG’s
Total 28 BTGr’s
Transnistrian
- perational
direction
Donetsk
KAZAKHSTAN
Volgograd Simferopol Temryuk
3rd echelon/ queue BTG’s
Vladikavkaz Novocherkassk
3
Durnevo
Kherson Dnipro Kryvyi Rih
Ukraine
Belarus
KYIV
“Kadamovskiy ” range Krasnodar
100 km to Ukrainian border
50 km to Ukrainian border 240 km to Ukrainian border
Russia
4
Combat range of Russian “Iskander-M”-type missile systems deployed near the border of Ukraine
Russian JTF in the Don Operational Direction (South-Western strategic direction)
5
2016 43 600 645 1 300 760 2018 55 000 790 1 590 1 350 2020 58 000 850 1 700 1 450
1st АC (Donetsk) since 2014
1 8A XX 2 8A XX
Luhansk Persianovskiy Donetsk Novocherkassk
8A SOUTH XXXX 150 8A/SOUTH XX
RUSSIA UKRAINE
20 8A X
Volgograd
TG TGs BTG TGs BTG TG BTG TG TG TGs
ENY ENY 8A SOUTH XXXX
HQ of Russian JTF
- n the base of 8th Аrmy
(Novocherkassk)
1 8A XXX
2nd АC (Luhansk) since 2014
2 8A XXX
150th MR Div (Persiyanovskiy) since 2016
150 8A/SOUTH XX 20 8A X
20th SepMRBde (Volgograd) Battalion tactical groups (3-4)
SOF
Special
- perations
forcesBat (2-3) Arty Task Group (4-5) AD Task Group (3-4)
8A
Logistics units
- f 8th Аrmy
I I I I I I I I
Militarization of Azov-Black Sea region
Ukraine
Taganrog
Russia
Melitopol Berdyansk Feodosia Yeysk Temryuk Primorsko-Akhtarsk
FSB Coast Guard division 27 FSB Coast Guard Group 28 FSB Coast Guard Group
6
FSB Coast Guard Group 33 FSB Coast Guard Group 21
N G
Goals of Russia:
- Overhaul of Ukrainian-
Russian state border considering Annexation of Crimea and partial
- ccupation of Donetsk
region
- Seizing control over the Sea
- f Azov and Kerch strait
- Blocking of Ukraine’s
economic activity
- Creating a depressive zone
in Ukrainian Azov coastal region
Number of ships and special boats in the Sea of Azov
2013 2018 2019
April January
Russian FSB Coast Guard
41 84 115
Black Sea fleet
10
Caspian flotilla
3
- Russia is trying to exhaust economic potential of Ukraine and to feed
tension within Ukrainian security and defense sector. Assessment:
171 79 382 810
6
Increase of Russian AF task forces in temporary occupied Crimea
UKRAINE RUSSIA
Sevastopol
127
X
22 4 22 1096 22 BSF
XXXX
Yevpatoria Simferopol Perevalne
68 22 22 AC BSF
XXX
8 22 126 22
X
The Black Sea Sea of Azov
GOAL:
Debarment of return of Crimea under Ukrainian jurisdiction Gaining full control over the Black Sea with the goal to influence the states of the region Creation of the counterbalance to US/NATO actions in the Alliance’s Eastern flank Extension of constant Russian military presence in the Mediterranean
Before annexation 12500
- 92
24 22 26 2 2018 31500 40 583 162 122 71 7 2022 43000 100 1150 400 213 91 6
7
Anticipated activity of Russia in south-western part of the Black Sea
МОLDOVA UKRAINE
“Arkhanhelske” gas field “Holitsynske” gas condensate field
ODESA KHERSON MYKOLAYIV Tarkhankut Cape
Russian “Neva-BS” radars deployed
- n the gas platforms
(range up to 55.5 km)
CHORNOMORSK
Drilling platform “Syvash” Drilling platform “Petro Hodovanets” Drilling platform “Tavryda”
“Odeske” gas field
Drilling platform “Ukrayina”
Exercises areas near international shipping routes
8
Shift of the balance of force in the Black Sea in advantage of Russia Creation of preconditions for increasing the scale of the armed aggression against Ukraine and use of the armed forces against other nations Fueling frozen conflicts in Moldova, Georgia and Azerbaijan Increasing number of dangerous incidents in air and at sea Militarization of other regions including the Baltic Sea and the Mediterranean Sea Russian economic activity blockade of other ports in the region growing in scale
Consequences of Russia’s militarization of the Azov-Black Sea region
9
Key accomplishments: Growth of Defence Budgeting
10
The Law of Ukraine on National Strategy enacting security and defence spending on the level of at least 5 % GDP, including 3 % GDP for defence forces +18% GDP
(12)
Perspectives Five fundamental components
- f defence reform development: