16 October 2017 BZE Discussion Group A Short-lived Gas Shortfall - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
16 October 2017 BZE Discussion Group A Short-lived Gas Shortfall Tim Forcey Dylan McConnell 1 Eastern Australia gas exports (LNG) dwarf domestic use Starting in 2015 disruption! The end of cheap gas in Eastern Australia. And the
16 October 2017 BZE Discussion Group “A Short-lived Gas Shortfall Tim Forcey Dylan McConnell
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Eastern Australia gas exports (LNG) dwarf domestic use
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Starting in 2015… …disruption! The end
Eastern Australia. And the spectre
X xx AEMO’s “Gas Statement of Opportunities” (GSOO)… …opportunities to invest in fossil gas supply infrastructure. AEMO’s 20-year outlook, updated annually.
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9 March 2017 Gas shortages causing electricity blackouts? Seriously? X xx Gas industry & political responses / “opportunities”:
Bay
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Thanks protestors! Now you can all go freeze in the dark!
19 May 2017 Our report… “A Short-lived Gas Shortfall - A review of AEMO’s warning
Tim Forcey Dylan McConnell
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AEMO new CEO from the USA Audrey Zibelman
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X xx One month later, June 2017… … AEMO publishes Energy Supply Outlook. No more gas shortfalls / blackouts.
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25 Sept 2017 “GSOO update” AEMO abandons 20-year outlook to focus on just 2 years: 2018 & 2019. AEMO devises “worst-case” annual gas supply/demand scenario….
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… and the gas “shortfall” returns! And it’s “three times bigger!” X Xxxxxx
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But just 8 days later… No more gas shortfall, as PM Turnbull again “jawbones” gas giants.
(3 October 2017)
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Six different types of gas “shortages / shortfalls”: 1). We’ve run dry! All the gas is gone! NOT! See next slide… 2). … 3). … 4). … 5). … 6). …
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Heaps of gas in the ground! After 2036, 5.5 X gas still remains.
40,000 PJ and 220,000 PJ, total = 260,000 PJ. Good to the year 2146?
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Gas supply/cost “curve”. Lots of gas… but it’s not cheap.
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~ Only 100,000 PJ shown.
Six different types of gas “shortages / shortfalls”: 1). We’ve run dry! All the gas is gone! NOT! See next slide… 2). Something blows up – Longford September 1998 3). Low pressure in a suburb on a cold winter day 4). Gas can’t be adequately supplied to a gas-fired power station !!! BLACKOUTS !!! (e.g. AEMO March 2017, investigated by Forcey & McConnell) 5). Gas can’t be adequately supplied to an entire city during a cold winter spell (e.g. Sydney)
(i.e. AEMO 2014, investigated by Forcey & Sandiford)
6). A “hypothetical, worst-case scenario” annual supply/demand imbalance (AEMO / ACCC Sept 2017)
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7). Not a shortage Market “tightness”… leading to high gas price$… … is a shortage of cheap gas, … but not a “gas shortage”!
Yearning for the good ‘ol days
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6). A “hypothetical, worst-case scenario” annual supply/demand imbalance More accurate to call this a hypothetical ”imbalance”, rather than a “shortfall”. Gas can be readily stored:
Differs to electricity in this respect. Confusing?
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The interconnected Eastern Australian gas production and transmission system
6). A “hypothetical, worst-case scenario” annual supply/demand imbalance A “real” (vs “on-paper”) gas imbalance…
(either before or after the event)
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Good (indeed critical) for AEMO to present the numbers… but has the political & media response been overblown?
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2018 Eastern Australian “hypothetical gas-supply imbalance - worst case” (Data from AEMO GSOO Update Sept 2017)
500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Petajoules / year
AEMO’s “worst-case scenario” has a very high probability
For 2018 worst-case “shortfall” AEMO assumed this weather report:
also
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Uncertainty on the supply side Shell, in particular, has control
undeveloped QLD coal seam gas. Enough to supply four more LNG trains in Gladstone QLD.
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Potential supply impact of Lakes Oil Victorian onshore gas: Up to 20 PJ/yr; ~ 1% of total gas supply.
500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Petajoules per year
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Uncertainty around gas volumes to be exported as LNG ACCC, 22 September:
“While the LNG projects have taken some steps to supply more gas into the domestic market, it is unclear to the ACCC why we are not seeing more of it and why such significant volumes of LNG are forecast to be sold on the international LNG spot markets in 2018.”
PM Turnbull, 27 September:
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Will the PM ever have to invoke The Australian Domestic Gas Security Mechanism? (ADGSM)
Uncertainty around CSG supply and LNG export The coal seam gas giants: Shell - QCLNG, aka Arrow, BG, QGC (Netherlands/UK) CNOOC (Chinese National Offshore Oil Company) Tokyo Gas (Japan) Santos - GLNG Total (France) Petronas (Malaysia) Kogas (Korea) Origin - APLNG Conoco-Phillips (USA) Sinopec (China)
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Is AEMO going “backwards” re transparency? AEMO need to provide more info / transparency describing their GSOO-Update assumptions.
To be fair to AEMO, their largest uncertainty is around the numbers supplied by the gas industry. Can AEMO / ACCC / someone “shine a light” into the opaque gas industry?
“An.. impediment to investment is the general lack of transparency of the Australian upstream gas market. Any overseas investor is likely to have great difficulty getting the most basic information about reserves, production and drilling results.”
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Further work? The Bass Strait continues to be a huge gas supplier. But what do stakeholders…
… know about what’s going on
Fairfax, 7 October 2017
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Dylan McConnell Monday 16th October 2017
This figure presents the illustrates the current system (left) which includes a large capacity of “baseload” generation that operates most of the time, with peaking and intermediate plant ramping up and down to meet variations in demand. In a renewable system 9illustrated right), the variable renewables will provide the bulk of the energy, and firm, flexible renewables will ramp as required to fill the gap and meet the demand. [Source: Dr Jenny Riesz*, Dr Ben Elliston, Dr Peerapat Vithayasrichareon, Assoc. Prof. Iain MacGill, 100% Renewables in Australia: A Research Summary
This figure presents the illustrates the current system (left) which includes a large capacity of “baseload” generation that operates most of the time, with peaking and intermediate plant ramping up and down to meet variations in demand. In a renewable system 9illustrated right), the variable renewables will provide the bulk of the energy, and firm, flexible renewables will ramp as required to fill the gap and meet the demand. [Source: Dr Jenny Riesz*, Dr Ben Elliston, Dr Peerapat Vithayasrichareon, Assoc. Prof. Iain MacGill, 100% Renewables in Australia: A Research Summary
Gas vs electricity storage (and demand response)
Energy storage (and demand response)
Lazards, Levelised Cost of Storage 2015
Finkel (2017), Independent Review into the Future Security of the National Electricity Market: Blueprint for the Future, page 105, (Adapted from AGL, A future of storable renewable energy, 2017, p.6)
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GROUP DESCRIPTION This Australia-originated Facebook group is for folks who wish to discuss methods & especially share data re space heating, water heating, and cooking in homes using electricity rather than fossil gas, LPG, or wood. Of particular interest is the use of high efficiency heat pumps for space heating and cooling, water heating, clothes drying…
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Get off gas! “My Efficient Electric Home” on Facebook. Now with > 2,000 members.
Queensland coal seam gas (CSG) fields Before… After… 150 wells 40,000 wells planned. So multiply this…. 300 times.
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Special photography methods now available to visualise methane gas emissions
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California gas storage methane leak wipes out California climate change efforts
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U.S. methane “hot spot” seen from space over world’s largest coal seam gas producing region
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Thousands of gas leaks identified in the U.S. city of Boston
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Turn on your reverse-cycle air con (heat pump), and save!
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Renewable energy in the home: 3 forms of solar energy
1) Solar PV (20%) 2) Hot-water heat pump (30%) 3) Space- heating heat pump (50%)
Reverse-cycle air conditioner in heating mode producing temperatures of up to 50 °C 1 part of electricity produces up to 6 parts of space heating. 5 parts of renewable heat go in here.
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Air-con companies starting to market advantages vs gas!
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Renewable energy in the home: 3 forms of solar energy
1) Solar PV 2) Hot-water heat pump 3) Space- heating heat pump
Heat pump water heater: 1 part of electricity produces 4.5 parts of hot water. How? 3.5 parts of renewable heat go in here. In Australia, heat pump water heaters receive renewable energy certificates, just like solar PV.
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22 WAYS TO CUT YOUR ENERGY BILLS !
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