13 th Northeast Asia Economic Forum Seoul Korea, 17-18 September - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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13 th Northeast Asia Economic Forum Seoul Korea, 17-18 September - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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13 th Northeast Asia Economic Forum Seoul Korea, 17-18 September 2004 Session 3: Toward a Northeast Asian Energy Community Commentary: IEA view on Northeast Asia Norio EHARA Head, Non-Member Countries Division International Energy

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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

13th Northeast Asia Economic Forum

Seoul Korea, 17-18 September 2004

Session 3: Toward a Northeast Asian Energy Community

“Commentary: IEA view on Northeast Asia”

Norio EHARA Head, Non-Member Countries Division International Energy Agency

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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 China Russia Japan Korea DPRK Mongolia Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Renewables

TPES in NE Asia: 2002

Mtoe

China Factor: 2nd largest consumer of energy and oil, largest coal consumer Diversity of energy supply Regional mismatch = potential co-operation

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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

TPES Projection in NE Asia

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Other

100 200 300 400 500 600 Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Other 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 Oil Gas Coal Neclear Other

50 100 150 200

Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Other

Mtoe 2000 2030 Japan/Australia/NZ

  • Rep. of Korea

Russia China

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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

20 49 16 30 8 29 41 50 43 55 53 6 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% TPES Coal Oil Gas per cent China OECD Non-OECD (excl. China)

  • China continues to be the 2nd largest energy consumer
  • China will account for 20% of world incremental energy demand and

for half of the increase in coal use over the next three decades.

Share of China in World Incremental Energy Demand: 2000-2030

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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Growing gap between Oil demand and Production in China

2 4 6 8 10 12 14

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Production Consumption

Mb/d 2 mbd (2.7%) 10 mbd (8%)

50 100 150 200 250 300 Transp. Electricity Industry Res&Comm

2000 => 2030

Mtoe

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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

  • Gas Supply in China

Although China’s gas production will rise rapidly, demand will be increasingly met by imports

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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

  • !

" " " ####$ %#&'# ()* +& ,

Gas Investment in China

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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Russia Seeking a New Energy Trading Partner

  • European Market : well-developed but transit is major concerns.
  • Northeast Asian Market: high potential but undeveloped.
  • Gasprom Strategy affects the development of gas and oil pipeline development?
Arctic Ocean Black Sea Kovykta Ordos Basin Daqing Yurubcheno- Tokhomo Dovletabad Shah-deniz Astrakhan

Yamburg 167.9

Nadym 73.6 Noyabrsk 48.9 Orenburg 24.1 Astrakhan 9.8 Tarkosale Surgut 11.1 Baltic Sea Sea
  • f
Japan Yellow Sea Norwegian Sea MONGOLIA IRAN IRAQ SYRIA TURKEY ROMANIA HUNG. SLOV. CZ. REP. AUST. POLAND GERMANY SWEDEN NORWAY IRE. DEN. NETH. FINLAND NORTH KOREA SAUDI ARABIA AFGHANISTAN CHINA UNITED KINGDOM BELARUS UKRAINE TURKMENISTAN GEORGIA ESTONIA KYRGYZSTAN TAJIKISTAN AZERBAIJAN LATVIA LITHUANIA ARMENIA KAZAKHSTAN UZBEKISTAN MOLDOVA JAPAN Planned LNG Terminal
  • REP. OF
KOREA Tarim Basin

Urengoy 193.3

26.9

Current Market New Frontier

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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

!" # !! $

Gazprom Gazprom Gazprom Gazprom and and and and Rosneft Rosneft Rosneft Rosneft: : : : Taishet Taishet Taishet Taishet-

  • Nahodka

Nahodka Nahodka Nahodka: : : : 4,130km : 4,130km : 4,130km : 4,130km : $5B $5B $5B $5B – $10B : $10B : $10B : $10B : 1mbd 1mbd 1mbd 1mbd YUKOS, TNK YUKOS, TNK YUKOS, TNK YUKOS, TNK-

  • BP,

BP, BP, BP, Sibneft Sibneft Sibneft Sibneft: : : : Angarsk Angarsk Angarsk Angarsk-

  • Da

Da Da Daq q q qin in in ing g g g: : : : 2,200 km : 2,200 km : 2,200 km : 2,200 km : $2B $2B $2B $2B : : : : 400 400 400 400-

  • 600

600 600 600 kbd kbd kbd kbd

  • China and Russia agreed to increase oil supply by railway: 3.5 mt/y

15 mt/y by 2006

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Tokyo Shenyang

Amur Irkutsk

Beijing

Mongolia China Russia

Far East

Japan DPRK ROK

Far East Electricity Network East Siberia Line Hydro Power Natural Gas or Nnuclear

Sakhalin

Electric Power Link Design in Northeast Asia

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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Stages of Energy Projects in NE Aisa

Stages of Energy Projects Current Stage of Projects in NE Asia

  • 1. Concept building :

NE Asia Electricity Network

  • 2. Political endorsement and political framework building:

Pacific Oil Pipeline

  • 3. Technical and financial feasibility studies:

NE Asia Gas Pipeline

  • 4. Regulatory approvals from authorities: routing, health- safety-

environmental (HSE) impacts, etc.

  • 5. Financing
  • 6. Physical construction:

Sakhalin 2 LNG

  • 7. Production and pipeline operation and management:

WE Gas Pipeline, Sakhalin 2 Oil

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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Challenge1: Lack of Infrastructure and Investment: 2000 ~ 2030

500 1000 1500 2000 2500

China Russia OECD Pacific

Electricity Coal Gas Oil

Billion Dollars

$2253 billion $1050 billion $1000 billion

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Challenge 2: Regulatory Reforms & Market Restructuring

Cross-border oil & gas projects pass through multiple countries A Clear and stable regulatory framework exists in NE Asia? APEC recommendations and experience

  • f Energy Charter

Sakhalin sparks the Japanese energy companies?

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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Challenge 3: Overall Plans & Studies

Need more information: reserves, markets, technical & economic feasibility, etc. Master plans help policy makers’ involvement in the regional framework

F/S for Kovykta gas project NEAREST Study by KERI Gas Demand and Market Study by

Northeast Asia Gas and Pipeline Forum

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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Toward a NE Asia Energy Community

Cross-border projects = a number of concerned parties Strong need for international alignment to avoid obsolescent bargaining Areas beyond the capacity of private sector:

incompatibility between the laws investment conditions among nations Political changes

Regional issue needs regional approach Regional co-operation framework to promote

  • r trouble shoot
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

OLADE

IEA

ASEAN

(ACE, ASCOPE) Japan, Korea

ASEAN+3

China India US, Canada, Australia & NZ Russia Mexico, Peru, Chile

APEC-EWG(APERC)

European Members

N.B. UNs, IFIs, national & private regional

  • rganisations are not

included.

EU

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Government Role in NE Asia

A convener to encourage the alignment of interests Need clear definition: Primary role of private sector Major roles: to establish a clear, transparent and predictable framework for private investment conditions

To establish institutional and regulatory framework

for production, trade and transport

Clearly defined energy policy

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IEA’s Role in NE Asia

IEA Ministers’ encouragement in April 2003 Start of NE Asia POW in 2003

IEA/KEEI conference on NE Asia energy security

and regional cooperation in March 2004

IEA/KERI/APERC/Vostokenergo symposium on

electricity network in May 2004

POW in 2005/2006

Oil and gas study in NE Asia Contribution to HR training : energy experts and

data experts

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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

www.iea.org