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1 2010 RESULTS HIGHLIGHTS Turnover exceeds R10 billion Headline - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
1 2010 RESULTS HIGHLIGHTS Turnover exceeds R10 billion Headline - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
1 2010 RESULTS HIGHLIGHTS Turnover exceeds R10 billion Headline Earnings +39% Operating Cash Flow per share +40% Capital Distribution 70 cents per share 2 COMPOUND ANNUAL GROWTH RATE Revenue Growth Since Inception EBITA Growth
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Headline Earnings +39% Operating Cash Flow per share +40% Capital Distribution 70 cents per share
2010 RESULTS HIGHLIGHTS
Turnover exceeds R10 billion
CAGR % Since Inception Since Listing Revenue 51% 36% EBITA 55% 39% HEPS 49% 35%
COMPOUND ANNUAL GROWTH RATE
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73 353 936 1 004 1 561 1 890 2 202 2 815 3 449 4 026 4 682 8 441 10 147 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Revenue Growth Since Inception
Revenue – R’millions 4 17 26 47 63 79 104 138 185 210 226 378 471 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
HEPS Growth Since Inception
HEPS – Cents Per Share 14 72 211 300 416 501 632 833 987 1 198 1 314 2 270 2 717 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
EBITA Growth Since Inception
EBITA – R’millions
Year ended June 2009 R’m Year ended June 2010 R’m % Change
Continuing Operations Revenue 10 147 8 441 +20% Gross Profit 4 604 3 877 +19% Net operating expenses (1 887) (1 607) EBITA 2 717 2 270 +20% Amortisation (102) (95) Operating profit 2 615 2 175 +20% Net funding costs (370) (475) Share of after tax loss of associates (2) (3) Profit before tax 2 243 1 697 +32% Tax (468) (359) Profit after tax from continuing operations 1 775 1 338 +33% Discontinued Operations Profit for the year from discontinuing operations 203 16 Profit for the year 1 978 1 354 +46% EPS 494.9 cents 374.6 cents +32% HEPS 482.9 cents 389.4 cents +24% 4
INCOME STATEMENT RE-ANALYSED
REVENUE AND EBITA BY SEGMENT
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International 39% South Africa 58% SSA 3% June 2010 : *EBITA : R2.8bn International 38% South Africa 53% SSA 9% June 2010 : Revenue - R10.6bn
International 38% South Africa 51% SSA 11%
June 2009 : Revenue - R8.4bn
International 44% South Africa 48% SSA 8%
June 2009 : *EBITA : R2.3bn *EBITA before disposals and impairments
ANALYSIS OF SEGMENTAL REVENUE
6 * Represents revenue from the sale of domestic and global brands
South Africa Sub-Saharan Africa Asia Pacific Latin America Rest of the World 5 652 910 1,468 1 150 1 435 4 309 931 1 234 1 144 822
* Revenue by Customer Geography R10.6 billion (2009 : R8.4 billion)
2010 2009
R’millions
ANALYSIS OF REVENUE FROM GLOBAL BRANDS
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South Africa Asia Pacific Latin America EMENAC Rest of the World 100 453 337 1 036 82 72 319 303 772 45
Revenue from Global Brands R2.0 billion (2009 : R1.5 billion)
2010 2009
R’millions
Year ended June 2010 Year ended June 2009
South Africa 28% * 26% Sub-Saharan Africa 8% 19% International 28% 32% Group 27% * 27%
*EBITA percentages has been normalised to exclude compensation for loss of profits received from insurers in respect of Aspen Nutritionals
SEGMENTAL EBITA%
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29% 30% 27% 27% 27%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Group EBITA% Trend
R1.0bn R1.2bn R1.3bn R2.3bn
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
89% 88% 79% 49% 58% 11% 12% 21% 51% 42%
Analysis of EBITA
Southern Africa International
R2.8bn R2.3bn
Interest expense Interest income Preference dividend Notional interest on financial instruments Forex & fair value (gains)/losses Net funding costs
2010 2009
- 224
FUNDING COSTS
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Net Funding Costs
R'millions
553 615
- 188
28 38
- 4
- 7
- 19
53 370 475
Year ended June 2010 R’m Year ended June 2009 R’m
Assets Non-current assets 12 178 6 921 Tangible fixed assets 3 012 2 374 Goodwill 456 398 Intangible assets 8 610 4 104 Other non-current assets 100 45 Current assets 4 683 3 536 Cash 2 940 2 065 19 801 12 522 Equity and Liabilities Capital and Reserves 10 886 4 263 Non-current liabilities 3 086 4 038 Preference shares - liability 387 392 Long term interest bearing debt 2 260 3 434 Other non-current liabilities 439 212 Short term interest bearing debt 3 720 2 670 Other current liabilities 2 109 1 551 19 801 12 522
ABRIDGED BALANCE SHEET
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CAPEX INVESTMENT TREND
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169 288 379 627 632 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Investment in Tangible Assets R2.1 billion over five years
R'millions
Year ended June 2010 R’m Year ended June 2009 R’m
Cash operating profit 3 269 2 668 Working capital requirements (344) (508) Cash generated from operations 2 925 2 160 Net finance costs paid (609) (759) Investment income received 182 224 Tax paid (465) (333) Net inflow from operations 2 033 1 292 Operating cash flow per share 506 cents 361 cents Working capital as a % of Group sales 24% 26%
ABRIDGED CASH FLOW STATEMENT
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KEY LIQUIDITY RATIOS
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38% 62% 29% 71% 40% 60%
Debt Equity
51% 49% 24% 76% 402 709 652 1 292 2 034 1 032 968 2 011 4 039 3,019
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Net Debt & Operating Cash Flow Trend
Net cash flow from operating activities Net Debt
R'millions
KEY LIQUIDITY RATIO
CORPORATE ACTIVITIES
- Series of interdependent strategic transactions
- South Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa, Global Brands, Bad Oldesloe
- 68.5 million shares issued to GSK
- Transaction value of R4.6 billion
- Successfully integrated
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1 December 2009 : Completion of GSK Transactions
CORPORATE ACTIVITIES
- Agreement reached to sell the Campos manufacturing facility plus products from
Strides
- Part of restructuring plan for business in Brazil
- Exit from tender market products, contract manufacture
- Risks and rewards transferred to Strides
- Completion pending regulatory process
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3 March 2010 : Announcement of Sale of Campos
CORPORATE ACTIVITIES
- Sale of 50% shareholding in oncology joint ventures to Strides for USD117 million
- License for existing and future oncology products secured for specified territories
- Alignment with Aspen business model
- Onco Therapies complete : R155 million profit on sale
- Onco Laboratories to complete : R300 million profit on sale anticipated
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18 March 2010 : Announcement of Restructure of Oncology Arrangements
CORPORATE ACTIVITIES
- Largest listed pharma business in Australia
- Pharma sales > AUD600 million
- Support of Sigma Board
- Purchase consideration AUD900 million
- Funded by cash and debt
- Synergies with Aspen Australia, growth platform for Australia and region
- Subject to shareholder approval, other conditions precedent
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16 August 2010 : Announcement regarding purchase of Sigma Pharmaceuticals
DISTRIBUTION OF FUND MANAGERS
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South Africa 59% North America 23% Europe 15% Asia Pacific 2% Other 1%
As at 30 June 2009
South Africa 43% North America 29% Europe 25% Asia Pacific 2% Other 1%
As at 30 June 2010
CORPORATE ACTIVITY
- Environmental Management
- Resource conservation initiatives are in place to save on and optimise energy and
water consumption
- Waste management protocols are applied to ensure responsible disposal of
harmful substances
- Recycling initiatives are in place
- Corporate Social Investment (CSI)
- Contributed to 39 CSI projects in South Africa
- 7 Primary healthcare infrastructure projects
- 15 HIV/AIDS initiatives
- 6 Healthcare initiatives
- 7 Community upliftment initiatives
- 4 Educational and training initiatives
- Close to 780 000 beneficiaries were directly and indirectly supported
through Aspen’s CSI projects
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CORPORATE ACTIVITY
- Employees
- The Group provides secure employment to more than 6 000 employees
- More than 50% of the employees received training during the year
- On-site clinics provide a wide range of health checks, HIV/AIDS counselling
and employee support as well as healthcare awareness programmes
- Aspen, through QualSA, provides financial support to employees and their
immediate families suffering from HIV/AIDS
- Benchmarking Sustainability
- Consideration and application of King III report on corporate governance
- Aspen aligned itself to global Sustainability Reporting initiatives in 2010, in
accordance with the Global Reporting Initiative, focussing on economic, environmental and social factors impacting business sustainability
- Aspen received an A-rating from Empowerdex and was verified as a Level 4
contributor thereby validating its commitment to transformation in the South African business
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ASPEN GROUP
- Financial Highlights
- South Africa major contributor
- International impressive
- Consider Rand strength
- Aspen cash generating machine
- Resumption of capital distribution
- Strong currency hedge
- Import component in South Africa matched by international income
- South African manufacturing operation
- World class
- Creating sustainable advantages
- Contributing to margin improvements
- GSK transactions implemented
- Positive impact for seven months
- International operations
- Global Brands performing
- Operations on track
- Asia Pacific consolidating gains
- Work to do in Sub-Saharan Africa
- Positive strides in Latam
- Interesting opportunities
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Headlines
ASPEN AMONGST ITS PEER GROUP
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Sun Pharma Cipla (India) Aspen Dr Reddy Gideon Richter Krka Hikma Adcock Cipla Medpro 7,8 5,3 5,3 5,1 4,1 2,9 2,4 1,5 0,4 7,1 5,4 5,8 5,3 3,4 3,0 2,5 1,4 0,4
Market Capitalisation and Enterprise Value Comparatives
Market Cap-September 2010 EV 2010
USD' billion
Aspen Krka Gideon Richter Sun Pharma Cipla (India) Dr Reddy Adcock Hikma Cipla Medpro 392 363 328 288 288 256 181 173 58 534 386 314 349 327 302 203 202 78
EBITDA Comparatives
EBITDA 2010F EBITDA 2011F
USD'million
Information as per Citibank September 2010 Valuations for all companies except for Krka and Gideon Richter which are per Morgan Stanley September valuation. Aspen actual June 2010 EBITA has been used, converted at USD1.00=R7.61 Information as per Citibank September 2010 Valuations for all companies except for Krka and Gideon Richter which are per Morgan Stanley September valuation
ASPEN AMONGST ITS PEER GROUP
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Dr Reddy Aspen Krka Gideon Richter Cipla (India) Sun Pharma Hikma Adcock Cipla Medpro
1,5 1,3 1,3 1,3 1,2 0,9 0,7 0,6 0,2 1,8 1,8 1,4 1.4 1,3 1,1 0,8 0,7 0.3
Revenue Comparatives
REVENUE 2010F REVENUE 2011F
USD'billion
Aspen Cipla Medpro Adcock Hikma Dr Reddy Cipla (India) Sun Pharma Gideon Richter Krka
40,8% 25,8% 11,8% 11,5% 9,2% 6,2% 1,8% 1.0%
- 1,1%
39,5% 25,0% 12,4% 11,8% 13,3% 8,2% 7,9% 2,4% 1,3%
Revenue CAGR% Comparatives
REVENUE CAGR 08-10 (2yrs) REVENUE CAGR 08-11 (3yrs)
Information as per Citibank September 2010 Valuations for all companies except for Krka and Gideon Richter which are per Morgan Stanley September valuations
ASPEN AMONGST ITS PEER GROUP
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Dr Reddy Sun Pharma Cipla (India) Hikma Aspen Gideon Richter Krka Cipla Medpro
25,0 23,3 22,8 22,1 16,2 14,0 13,1 11,7 19,4 19,8 19,8 17,7 13,3 17,0 14,0 7,3
Price : Earning Comparatives
PE 2010F PE 2011F Cipla Medpro Aspen Hikma Adcock Cipla (India) Gideon Richter Dr Reddy Sun Pharma Krka 46,4% 38,4% 24,3% 17,1% 12,8% 15,0% 8,8% 7,6% 0,0% 51,6% 37,6% 24,4% 16,9% 12,3% 2,9% 17,5% 12,5%
- 2,3%
HEPS CAGR% Comparatives
DILUTED HEPS CAGR 08-10 (2yrs) DILUTED HEPS CAGR 08-11 (3yrs)
Information as per Citibank September 2010 Valuations for all companies except for Krka and Gideon Richter which are per Morgan Stanley September valuations
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ASPEN IN THE SOUTH AFRICAN MARKET
16,2 16,1 16,1 16,2 16,2 16,2 16,1 16,3 16,3 16,3 16,4 16,5 10,0 10,0 10,0 10,0 10,0 10,0 10,0 9,9 9,9 10,0 10,1 10,1 7,8 7,8 7,8 7,8 7,8 7,9 7,8 7,8 7,8 7,7 7,9 7,8 7,2 7,2 7,2 7,1 7,1 7,1 7,2 7,1 7,1 7,1 7,0 7,0 6,1 6,1 6,1 6,1 6,1 6,0 6,0 6,0 6,0 5,9 5,9 5,8 4,9 4,9 4,9 5,0 5,0 5,0 5,1 5,0 5,0 5,1 5,1 5,1 4,3 4,4 4,4 4,5 4,5 4,5 4,6 4,6 4,6 4,6 4,7 4,8 4,3 4,3 4,3 4,3 4,3 4,3 4,3 4,4 4,3 4,3 4,4 4,3 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Aspen/GSK Adock Ingram Sanofi-Aventis Pfizer Novartis AstraZeneca Cipla Medpro Merck & Co
Total Pharma Market MAT Rand Share % as per IMS – June 2010
For the month of June we reached 17.7% - a new record. All South African listed companies performing!
GSK consolidated retrospectively
ASPEN IN THE SOUTH AFRICA MARKET
- Retained market leadership in South Africa
- Number 1 in public and private sectors
- Nearly 1 in 4 of every tablet / capsule dispensed is for an Aspen product
- Sales
- Pharma by 40%
- Consumer by 5%
- Operating Income
- Pharma by 56%
- Consumer by 12%
- About 10% of sales are from GSK products
- Globally cost competitive facilities
- With scope to reduce costs
- GSK South African business seamlessly integrated
- Synergies immediately evident
- Broader reach market shares
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ASPEN IN THE SOUTH AFRICAN PRIVATE MARKET
5 000 000 10 000 000 15 000 000 20 000 000 25 000 000 30 000 000 Aspen / GSK Adcock Novartis Cipla Ranbaxy Pfizer Sanofi J&J Bayer Merck Pharma Dynamics AstraZeneca Servier MSD
Manufacturer Scripts % Share Aspen/GSK 28,532,828 24.1% Adcock Ingram 17,375,160 14.7% Novartis 7,581,336 6.4% Cipla 7,542,030 6.3% Ranbaxy 3,914,599 3.3% Pfizer 3,837,888 3.2% Sanofi Aventis 3,443,120 2.9% Johnson & Johnson 3,437,107 2.9% Bayer Schering 3,340,063 2.8% Merck 2,414,750 2.0% Pharma Dynamics 2,362,503 2.0% Astrazeneca 2,268,165 1.9% Servier 2,166,637 1.8% MSD 1,828,805 1.5% Ingelheim Pharma 1,757,641 1.4% Schering Plough 1,725,665 1.4% Pharmafrica 1,429,000 1.2% Novo-nordisk 1,332,116 1.1% Reckitt Benckiser 1,306,973 1.1% Inova Pharma 1,271,579 1.0%
Number of Script Lines Dispensed : Source ImpactRx July 2010 Almost 1 in 4 script lines dispensed in the South African private market is for an Aspen product
Number of script lines
ASPEN IN THE SOUTH AFRICAN PUBLIC MARKET
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Aspen 24% MSD 8% Servier 6% Novartis 6% Aventis 5% Rolab 5% Bayer 5% Pfizer 3% Adcock 3% Pharmacia 3% Other 32% Aspen/GSK 30% Other 25% Multinationals 19% Gulf Drug 4% Biotech 2% Adcock 3% Pharmachem 2% Sandoz 2% Daiichi Sankyo 3% Biogaran 5% Cipla 3% Dezzo 2%
RT289 Oral Solid Dosage Tender (excludes ARVs) A decade of Public Sector service and leadership
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 +120% +78% +39% +16%
ASPEN IN THE SOUTH AFRICAN PUBLIC MARKET
South African Operations – Driving Cost Reductions
- Volume key driver
- Economies of scale driving efficiencies
- Heavy investment in infrastructure already made
- Smaller capex investment to drive
capacity enhancements Cost effectiveness of our facilities underpin our future sustainability Output increase for Unit 1 over 500% in 4 years
Unit 1 OSD increase in annual recoveries 29
SOUTH AFRICAN MARKET
- In last year OSD
- Inspected / re-inspected by FDA, WHO and ANVISA (Brazil)
- No significant findings
- Worked tirelessly
- Process improvements
- Decreased drying time ten fold
- Campaigned and increased batch size
- Increased volumes
- Saved change over times
- Saved lab time
- International volumes
- Piggyback off existing costs
- Contribute towards economies of scale
- Further cost reductions anticipated
- Interventions above
- Volume high fixed expense base
- Consolidation and automation of facilities
- Assist with ARV pricing
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Operations
ASPEN IN THE SOUTH AFRICAN PUBLIC MARKET
- High value
- Low margin
- Have capacity – absorbs facility overheads
- Tendered competitively
- Demonstrated capability
- Responsive to unpredictable volume shifts
- Reliable supplier
- Expect tender to commence in November
- High risk tender
- Impacts working capital
- Currency exposure
- Impact on workforce
- Mitigation strategies
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ARV Tender
THE SOUTH AFRICAN MARKET PERFORMANCE
OTC R6.0bn Ethical/Branded R11.5 bn Generic R4.5bn
2010
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OTC R2.8bn Ethical/Branded R5.4 bn Generic R1.2bn
2001 Total Private Market as at June 2010 R21.97bn as per IMS (June 2009 – TPM R19.93bn) Growth from 2001 to 2010 OTC growth 115% Branded growth 113% Generic growth 271%
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THE MARKET PERFORMANCE
T
- tal
+10.2% +12.7%
Ge ne r ic
+14.0% +11.0%
OT C
+8.7% +8.4%
Br ande d
+10.0% +19.0%
South African Private Market Growth as per IMS – June 2010
SOUTH AFRICAN MARKET
- Defensive and resilient
- Growth continues
- Generics lead the way
- World Cup disappointing
- Public and private costs hard to contain in South African and emerging markets
- Population growth
- Growing affluences
- Ageing population
- Infectious diseases – young are also sick
- Improved access to diagnosis
- Chronic diseases projected to double in next eight years
- However emerging markets are fluid
- Only constant is change
- Requires dynamic teams – embrace change not threatened by it
- Significant banner for bureaucratic/centralised organisations
- Frustration risks rewards
- Local rules for local players
- South African market relatively consistent with the above
- Aside from limited local support
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SOUTH AFRICAN MARKET
- South African single exit price is fixed in Rands
- Operating margins affected by currency volatility
- Import cost component
- Government focus on NHI
- Implementation process not clear
- All of the above is forcing a shift to affordability and generic usage
- However quality overlay is the key to driving the shift
- This quality underwrite is the Aspen hallmark
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Emerging markets require decisive, commercially astute management with the latitude to make decisions. This is our environment and culture and part of the Aspen DNA.
SOUTH AFRICAN MARKET
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Aspen 33,9% Cipla 18,4% Other 16,4% Novartis 9,5% Adcock 10,2% Lupin Labs 4,3% Daiichi Sankyo 3,9% Pfizer 3,4%
Private Generic Market MAT Rand Share % as per IMS – June 2010 Big slice of a growing pie
SOUTH AFRICAN MARKET
- Generics have a 27.9% value share
- Generics have a 60.9% of counting units
- Continues to outpace the overall market
- Anticipate this trend to continue
- Fragmented market
- Numerous entrants
- Highly competitive
- Key drivers
- Patent expirations
- Affordability
- Meet patient needs
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Generic Market
SOUTH AFRICAN MARKET
- Aspen retained leadership position
- Trench welfare
- Strong competition – competitors agile
- Limited acquisitive opportunities
- Focus
- Provide service
- Provide unrivalled range of quality products
- A-Z one stop shop
- Manage complexity well
- We have the best people
- On our organic pipeline
- Delivered late in 2010 but expect a big year in 2011
- Breadth and quality of portfolio, representation and distribution continues to
give us strategic advantages
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Generic Market Aspen is Trusted and Credible
SOUTH AFRICAN MARKET
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12,16 12,19 12,24 12,30 12,32 12,39 12,36 12,35 12,40 12,28 12,52 12,35 10,12 10,12 10,20 10,28 10,38 10,44 10,44 10,58 10,57 10,67 10,78 10,96 9,19 9,27 9,29 9,38 9,44 9,42 9,53 9,44 9,48 9,54 9,56 9,64 8,81 8,78 8,71 8,69 8,66 8,66 8,63 8,53 8,56 8,51 8,45 8,41 7,44 7,40 7,42 7,40 7,39 7,37 7,40 7,45 7,37 7,38 7,41 7,41 5,30 5,26 5,27 5,28 5,24 5,26 5,26 5,33 5,32 5,30 5,27 5,26 6,38 6,51 6,52 6,40 6,40 6,28 6,26 6,30 6,34 6,36 6,29 6,06 5,21 5,22 5,26 5,23 5,22 5,21 5,21 5,14 5,15 5,13 5,23 5,22 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Sanofi-Aventis Aspen/GSK AstraZeneca Pfizer Merck & Co Novartis Roche Adcock/Parke Med
Total Branded Market MAT Rand Share % as per IMS – June 2010 Yes – we can!
SOUTH AFRICAN MARKET
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12,4 13,0 12,6 12,8 12,1 12,6 11,6 12,4 12,3 11,4 14,7 9,8 10,0 10,3 10,6 10,8 10,9 10,8 10,3 11,0 10,8 11,7 11,4 12,8 9,4 9,1 9,6 9,7 9,9 9,5 10,3 9,4 9,2 10,2 9,3 10,5 8,7 8,8 8,3 8,5 8,4 8,8 8,6 8,1 8,5 8,1 8,1 8,2 7,2 7,7 7,9 7,7 7,6 7,1 7,2 7,5 7,1 7,4 7,5 7,0 5,7 5,0 5,4 5,7 5,0 5,4 5,8 5,4 5,2 5,2 4,9 4,9 6,8 7,5 6,7 5,1 6,0 5,4 5,8 6,2 6,4 6,1 5,8 4,7 5,0 4,9 5,2 4,9 5,0 5,0 5,4 5,6 5,6 5,1 6,0 5,0 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Sanofi Aventis Aspen/GSK AstraZeneca Pfizer Merck & Co Novartis Roche Adcock/Parke Med
Total Branded Market Monthly Value Share % as per IMS – June 2010 Number 1 market share in April and June
SOUTH AFRICAN MARKET
- Largest value component of the South African market
- Challenging for number 1 spot
- Already!
- Commercial capability already demonstrated
- GSK’s innovation and Aspen’s commercial expertise
- Risks – patented products under generic threat
- Truvada and Seretide
- Opportunities – NCE launches
- Avamys and Synflorix
- Vaccines – a real opportunity
- Demonstration of credibility Aspen enjoys with South African physicians
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Branded Division Redefining pharmaceutical marketing in South Africa and now taking this concept into emerging markets
SOUTH AFRICAN MARKET
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OTC Market June 1999 – June 2001
33,6 30,1 27,4 9,7 10,4 11,8 5,4 5,7 5,8 4,3 4,1 3,9 3,3 3,6 3,1
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Mat Jun-99 Mat Jun-00 Mat Jun-01
Adcock Aspen GSK Janssen Novartis Reckitt Benkiser
SOUTH AFRICAN MARKET
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18,4 18,7 18,7 18,7 18,8 18,9 19,0 18,9 19,1 19,2 19,5 19,5 15,5 15,5 15,5 15,7 15,5 15,5 15,5 15,6 15,5 15,5 15,4 15,4 7,6 7,6 7,6 7,5 7,6 7,5 7,5 7,5 7,5 7,4 7,3 7,2 4,3 4,3 4,3 4,2 4,2 4,2 4,2 4,2 4,2 4,1 4,1 4,1 3,9 3,9 4,0 4,0 4,0 4,1 4,1 4,1 4,1 4,2 4,3 4,4 4,0 4,0 4,0 4,0 4,0 3,9 3,9 3,9 3,8 3,8 3,9 3,8 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Adcock Ingram Aspen Johnson & Johnson Sanofi-Aventis Pfizer Cipla Medpro Novartis
Private OTC Market MAT Rand Share % as per IMS – June 2010 We thought we were in range in July 2009. Hats off to our competitors – we have to raise our game!
SOUTH AFRICAN MARKET
- OTC Market
- Growth has been disappointing
- Expected self medication
- Tougher times
- Effect of private labels?
- Steadily grown OTC market share over time
- Laxatives / Slimming
- Unable to recover market share losses
- Competition is fierce
- Interesting product innovations
- Ex Brazil / Australia
- Own developments
44
OTC / Consumer We are committed and have a plan
SOUTH AFRICAN MARKET
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Extracted from Campbell Belman Survey – June 2010
An evaluation of the major prescription Pharmaceutical Companies in South Africa amongst top retail pharmacy
- utlets in major metropolitan areas
2010 2009 Pharmacy 1 2 Managed Healthcare 1 5 OTC 2 1
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Is financially sound & secure Has a strong cash flow Has clearly defined
- bjective/strategy
Is a well managed company Is reputable, honest and trustworthy Believes in full disclosure Makes effective use of capital
- Co. reports reflect
- co. performance
Has inherently strong products/services Alert to new ideas for profitability Has an effective chief executive Has a clear edge
- ver its competitors
Adcock Ingram Aspen Cipla-Medpro
SOUTH AFRICAN MARKET
Extracted from Campbell Belman Survey – June 2010
Research conducted amongst 130 Asset Managers, 42 Analysts and 9 Members of the Financial Media
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10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Feel confident in its long term future Chief executive is a straight talker Communicates well with the investors Senior management accessible Strong growth potential Maintains balance between risk & return Company results match expectations Has good relationships with government Practices csr without detracting appeal Has a good record
- f labour relations
Quality of its people impressive Has excellent investor relations Adcock Ingram Aspen Cipla-Medpro
SOUTH AFRICAN MARKET
Extracted from Campbell Belman Survey – June 2010
Research conducted amongst 130 Asset Managers, 42 Analysts and 9 Members of the Financial Media
47
ASPEN IN THE SOUTH AFRICAN MARKET
- Results underpinned by
- Strong Rand
- Buoyant demand
- Strong cash flows
- Operational efficiencies
- Team determined to add value to South Africa
- South Africa’s best team
- Market share at record levels
- Output at record levels
- New launch income the highest in the industry
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To rest is to rust
Summary
Aspen Sanofi-Aventis Cipla Medpro Adcock Ingram Novartis Pfizer AstraZeneca Merck & Co
Value 49
ASPEN IN THE SOUTH AFRICAN MARKET
New Launch Income - Value Generated during June 2010 MAT Period 0-24 months
ASPEN IN THE SOUTH AFRICAN MARKET
- Anticipate
- Continued volume increases
- Muted increase in SEP
- Operationally
- Further volume increases
- Economies of scale to drive COGS reductions
- Currency fluctuations
- Affect operating profitability
- ARV tender award
- Increased lives
- Margins slim
- GSK integration
- 12 Months versus 7 months
- Pipeline
- Sustainable – expect even more next year
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Prospects
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA (SSA)
- Current interest in Sub-Saharan Africa is in following broad categories
- Export from South Africa
- Negatively affected by ARV genericisation
- Commitment to procure API from licensor
- Pipeline focus on hormonals, IMF, OTC, ARV and other niche products
- IMF to impact
- Registering Aspen-owned IP
- Have first to market opportunity with licensed NCE / ARVs
- Shelys / Beta in East and Central Africa
- Collaboration with GSK
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Revenue from South Africa Exports R 94 m Shelys R267 m GSK Aspen Healthcare for Africa R549 m Total R910 m
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA (SSA)
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BETA 49 reps R84m SHELYS 63 reps R165m SHELYS EXPORT 13 reps R18m
Sheyls Africa - 12 Months to June 2010
- Shelys Pharmaceuticals (Tanzania)
- Beta Healthcare (Kenya & Uganda)
- Shelys Export (focus on southern / East Africa)
- Disappointing trading period
- Private sales performance encouraging
- Focus on private market paying dividends
- Sales by 31% in this sector in Shelys Pharmaceuticals
- Address issues in the business
- Weakness in financial / internal controls
- Historical taxation / customs issues
- Actions taken include
- Aspen South Africa not just a pipeline source
- Replaced management team
- Head of Manufacture employed from within Aspen South Africa operation
- Control of financial functions
- First quarter post these actions showing pleasing turnaround
Total Sales = R267m
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA (SSA)
- Rep force of 260
- Leverage representation
- Broader more relevant pipeline
- Dossiers in regulatory process
- Expect registration flow within twelve months
- Sales are for seven months
- 12 Months for 2011
FWCA 70 reps R138m AWA 90 reps R238m StnA 30 reps R59m EA 70 reps R114m
GSK Aspen Healthcare for Africa - Financial Year 2010
Total Sales = R549m
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GLOBAL PRODUCTS
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Multinational distribution Base Base Business as usual Transition + + Volumes increase as distributors are loaded Post transition
- Pipeline normalises, external distributors take
margin, Aspen distributors gear up Aspen control + + Product response to promotion, improved procurement and manufacturing costs, additional territories Aspen manufacture + + Transition to Aspen API and finished dosage form manufacture API savings staggered to 2013 FDF savings staggered most in 2013 Savings to exceed $10 million Compete effectively CYCLE REVENUE PROFIT CHARACTERISTICS
GLOBAL PRODUCTS
- Consists of GSK / Iroko products
- GSK includes two transactions
- ELIZ – Eltroxin, Lanoxin, Imuran and Zyloric
- COSMOS – Alkeran, Leukeran, Purinethol, Kemadrin, Lanvis, Myleran, Septrin and
Trandate
- Cosmos included for just 7 months
- On a like for like basis ELIZ products have grown by 19% in USD
- Affected by currency
- Transitions
- Regardless growth in double digits
- Vindication of our strategy to promote these products in emerging markets
- Managed global operational complexity
- Skills now within Aspen
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OPPORTUNITIES FOR ASPEN GLOBAL
- Unstable 50mcg / 100mcg
- Stabilised the product
- Developed 13 strengths
- 12.5mcg / 25mcg / 50mcg / 75mcg / 88mcg / 100mcg /
112mcg / 125mcg / 135mcg / 150mcg / 174mcg / 200mcg / 300mcg
- Bio batches in production
- Worldwide market > USD1.7 billion
- Brazil alone > USD100 million
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Eltroxin
ASPEN IN LATAM
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Brazil 68% Colombia 3% Argentina 1% Chile 1% Mexico 16% Venezuela 11%
Latam Sales by Territory
12 Months June 2010 : R1.2bn (6 Months to December 2009 : R500m)
ASPEN IN LATAM
- Sales R1 billion
- Aspen ownership at 100%
- Able to drive Aspen strategy
- At half year we said
- Incurred a loss in the region
- Hoped to turn to profitability in these six months
- Region not for the faint hearted
- Hopeful our strategies would be successful
- It is now profitable
- Significant turnaround
- Business shifted to private market focus
- 258 Representatives employed across Latam
- Benefits demonstrated in global brands
- Profitability is sustainable
- No longer as dependant on erratic public sector tenders
- Have an Aspen appointed management team in place
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ASPEN IN LATAM
- Increase our representation across the geography
- Columbia, Chile, Ecuador, Peru and Argentina
- Consolidate / entrench the gains made in Brazil, Mexico and Venezuela
- Leverage our high fixed cost infrastructure
- Introduction of organic pipeline
- Product acquisitions
- High gross margins will filter through
- This territory remains
- Most challenging
- Higher risk
- Highest return
- Most exciting
- We are confident that we have a working model, and that we have a strategy that will
deliver real value in this territory
- Remains the Group’s biggest regional growth opportunity
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Focus Areas
ASPEN IN ASIA PACIFIC
- Sales growth of 19%
- Double digit growth for 9th
consecutive year
- Australia – 67% of sales
- Japan >R100 million
- Outstanding management team
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Sales by Territory
Australia 67% Japan 7% New Zealand 4% Philippines 3% Indonesia 3% Malaysia 3% Thailand 2% Taiwan 3% China 1% Other 7%
12 Months to June 2010 : R1.5 billion (2009 : R1.2 billion)
ASPEN IN ASIA PACIFIC
- Australia – headquarters for Asia Pacific
- Expect Asia to be a meaningful contributor
- Japan, Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand and Taiwan targeted
- Organic growth opportunity in region
- Utilisation of Aspen pipeline
- From a zero base – sustained performance and meaningful contributor within
Aspen
- Ranked 7th by volume of scripts generated in the Australian market
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- Ranked 7th by volume of scripts
generated (excluding Generics)
- Play an important role in providing Australia
with healthcare
(source: IMS Health Australia – AMI MAT June 2010)
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ASPEN IN ASIA PACIFIC
International Operations
Rank Manufacturer
- No. of Scripts
% Share 1 GlaxoSmithKline 12,263,798 9.7% 2 Sanofi-Aventis 11,523,163 9.1% 3 Alphapharm 8,552,991 6.8% 4 Pfizer 8,544,862 6.8% 5 Sigma Pharmaceuticals 8,507,353 6.7% 6 AstraZeneca 7,845,891 6.2% 7 Aspen Pharmacare 6,786,452 5.4% 8 MSD 6,716,966 5.3% 9 Boehringer Ingelheim 3,374,281 2.7% 10 Servier 3,031,405 2.4% 11 Bristol-Myers Squibb 2,812,354 2.2% 12 Mundipharma 2,616,357 2.1% 13 CSL 2,605,884 2.1% 14 Roche 2,566,560 2.0% 15 Abbott 2,327,924 1.8% 16 Bayer Schering 2,270,475 1.8% 17 Novartis 1,888,408 1.5% 18 Wyeth 1,804,969 1.4% 19 Janssen Cilag 1,528,261 1.2% 20 Others 28,507,124 22.6% Total 126,075,478 100.0%
ASPEN IN ASIA PACIFIC
- 98 Year history in the Australian market
- Roots in wholesale
- Diversified into Pharma
- Pharma divisions comprise
- Branded division – purchased / licensed IP
- OTC including private labels
- Generics – acquisitions of Arrow
- Contract manufacture and exports
- Sigma has good brand equity
- 1/3 of the wholesale market
- Perceived to be pharmacist’s friend
- Banner groups drive compliance
- Manufacture
- 5 Facilities across Australia
- Under significant pressure
- Poor returns from significant pharma investments
- Generic business underperforming
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Sigma
ASPEN IN ASIA PACIFIC
- Potential to be ranked 1st by
volume of scripts generated
- Post a successful acquisition of Sigma
Pharmaceutical business 1 in every 8 Australian prescriptions should be for an Aspen product
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Sigma and Aspen
Rank Manufacturer
- No. of Scripts
% Share 1 Aspen/Sigma 15,293,805 12.13% 2 GlaxoSmithKline 12,263,798 9.73% 3 Sanofi-Aventis 11,523,163 9.14% 4 Alphapharm 8,552,991 6.78% 5 Pfizer 8,544,862 6.78% 6 AstraZeneca 7,845,891 6.22% 7 MSD 6,716,966 5.33% 8 Boehringer Ingelheim 3,374,281 2.68% 9 Servier 3,031,405 2.40% 10 Bristol Myers Squibb 2,812,354 2.23% 11 Mundipharma 2,616,357 2.08% 12 CSL 2,605,884 2.07% 13 Roche 2,566,560 2.04% 14 Abbott 2,327,924 1.85% 15 Bayer Schering 2,270,475 1.80% 16 Novartis 1,888,408 1.50% 17 Wyeth 1,804,969 1.43% 18 Janssen Cilag 1,528,261 1.21% 19 Others 28,507,124 22.60% Total 126,075,478 100.00%
ASPEN IN ASIA PACIFIC
BRANDED BUSINESS
- The branded business is Sigma’s largest contributor to profitability
- Aspen has a successful track record in this sector
- Is the focus of the existing Aspen Australia business
- Many of these brands are owned by Aspen in other geographies
- Acquired Global Brands from GSK significant
- Combined group
- Synergies
- Compelling platform for other licensors
- Increased co-operation with multinationals
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Why Sigma?
ASPEN IN ASIA PACIFIC
OTC / CONSUMER
- Broader Aspen range
- Leverage through compliant customers
GENERICS
- Regulated industry
- Worldwide phenomena
- Aspen has real expertise
- Procurement
- Pricing
- Manufacturing
- Pipeline
- Product positioning
- Capacity to drive the necessary COGS reductions
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Why Sigma?
ASPEN IN ASIA PACIFIC
MANUFACTURE
- Assess best fit for individual products within the Aspen global manufacturing
network
- Manufacturing launch pad for Asia Pacific
- Japanese approval
- Exports to numerous Asia geographies
NEW OPPORTUNITIES
- Sigma channel provides access to broader generic / OTC market for Aspen products
- Aspen currently focuses on niche generics only
- Difference it could represent to Aspen
- Current Australian generic pipeline (without Sigma) USD278 million *
- With Sigma it would change to USD1,926 million *
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Why Sigma?
* IMS value of molecules targeted
ASPEN IN ASIA PACIFIC
- We have a global manufacturing team
- Ensure able to extract margin improvements
- Across all divisions
- We have a great team in Australia
- Same team that started the operation in 2001
- Reps rated number 1 in Australia
- Highly motivated
- Will bring the necessary cohesion and confidence needed to perform in this market
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Why Sigma?
SUMMARY AND PROSPECTS
SOUTH AFRICA
- Performed financially
- Almost all areas
- Cash flow generation continues to be our strength
- South Africa firing
- South Africa is a competitive manufacturing base
- Favourable exchange rates
INTERNATIONAL OPERATIONS
- Global brands outperforming
- Sub-Saharan Africa struggled
- Latam has been turned around
- Brazil on track
- Asia Pacific
- Another solid performance
- GSK has positively contributed to both South Africa and International
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Summary Demonstrate capability to manage a global operation
SUMMARY AND PROSPECTS
- Anticipate sustained growth
- Currency fluctuations will determine relative growth
- In South Africa
- Expect limited price increases
- Increasing volumes and strong pipeline
- In International
- Sub-Saharan Africa will give improved performance
- Asia Pacific to sustain historic performances
- Global brands anticipate future growth
- Latam has the most upside
- GSK will contribute for twelve months next year
- 7 Months this year
- Manufacturing operations
- World class, dependable and capability is giving us the edge
- Sigma – resolution expected November
- Compelling opportunity for Aspen
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Prospects
The best is yet to come!
GENERICS BULLETIN REPORT : MAY 2010
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1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000 7 000 8 000 9 000 10 000 11 000 12 000 13 000 14 000
Orchid Strides Impax Taro Adcock Torrent Towa Glenmark Biocon Sawai Egis Sigma Hikma Aurobindo Pharmastandard Zylus Cadila Wockhardt Sun Lupin(10,15) Orion(4) Par Alapis(4,16) Cipla(10,15) Covidien(13,14) Gideon Richter(4) Krka(4) Sanofi (Winthrop) Fresenius Kabi (4,11,12) Ranbaxy Dr Reddy(10,15) Greenstone(Pfizer)(9) Perrigo(7,8) Hospira(6) Stada(4) Ratiopharm (4,5) Watson(3) Mylan(2) Sandoz Teva(1)
Generics API's Brands Other
Turnover (USD'millions) Figures have been quoted for 2009 calendar year wherever possible, showing growth compared with previous year. Results not reported in dollars have been converted at the rates shown, but growth figures are as reported. Business breakdowns are mostly according to companies' own definitions (Source - Company reports)
Aspen (17,18) (1) Sales exclude Ratiopharm; brand sales include Copaxone sales of USD2.83m (2) Generics sales growth was 9.2% (3) Includes Arrow from December 2009 (4) Reported in Euros, converted at EUR1 = USD1.4 (5) Excludes Mepha, which was sold separately to Cephalon for about USD 600m (6) Specialty injectable sales only (7) Financial year end 27 June 2009 (8) Includes OTC sales of USD1.64bn (9) IMS Health figures for US only (10) Financial year end 31 March 2010 (11) Injectables sales only (12) Organic growth quoted (13) Specialty Pharma and API sales only (14) Financial year ended 25 September 2009 (15) Reported in Indian rupees; converted at USD1 = Rs45 (16) Human health sales only, including brands distributed for third parties (17) Financial year end 30 June 2009 (18) Reported in South African Rand; converted at USD1 = R7.5 (19) Pending fulfiment of conditions precedent (20) Fourth quarter of 2009-9 plus nine months of 2009-2010 (21) Reported in Russian roubles; converted at USD1 = RUR30 (22) Includes OTC sales of USD493m (23) Reported in Australian dollars; converted at USD1 = AUD1.1 (24) Pharmaceutical sales only (25) Financial year to 31 January 2010 (26) Reported in Hungarian forints; converted at USD1 = Huf190 (27) Financial year to September 2009 (28) Reported in Japanese yen; converted at USD1 = Y92 (29) Pharmaceutical sales only, including OTC sales of USD172m (20) Financial year to 21 March 2009 M Aspen incl Sigma (19)
Annual Sales December 2009
Moving into Global top 10?