prepared by Investor Relations department BTS Group Holdings PCL
BTS Group Holdings PCL
3Q 2018/19 Earnings Presentation
20 February 2019
BTS Group Holdings PCL 3Q 2018/19 Earnings Presentation 20 February - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
BTS Group Holdings PCL 3Q 2018/19 Earnings Presentation 20 February 2019 prepared by Investor Relations department BTS Group Holdings PCL Disclaimer Investment involves risk. Prospective should understand the characteristics of Securities and
prepared by Investor Relations department BTS Group Holdings PCL
20 February 2019
Investment involves risk. Prospective should understand the characteristics of Securities and study information about BTS Group Holdings Public Company Limited (the “Company”) before making a decision to invest in Securities. This presentation is for information purposes only and is intended only for the initial direct attendee of the presentation. It may not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. It shall not and does not constitute either an offer to purchase or buy or a solicitation to purchase or buy or an offer to sell or exchange
inducement to enter into investment activity. No part of this presentation, nor the fact of its existence, should form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment or investment decision whatsoever. No representation, warranty or undertaking, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information or the opinions contained herein. This presentation is not to be relied upon in any manner as legal, tax or any other advice and shall not be used in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment and each person made aware of the information set-forth hereof shall be responsible for conducting its own investigation and analysis of the information contained herein. Except where otherwise indicated, the information provided in this presentation is based on matters as they exist as of the date stated or, if no date is stated, as of the date of preparation and not as of any future date, and the information and opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. None of the Company nor any of its subsidiaries accepts any obligation to update
Company or any of its subsidiaries or any of their respective directors, officers, employees or agents shall have any liability whatsoever (in negligence or otherwise) for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this presentation or its contents or otherwise arising in connection with the presentation and any and all such liability is expressly disclaimed. The information contained herein must be kept strictly confidential and may not be reproduced or redistributed in any format without the express written approval of the Company. Some statements made in this presentation are forward-looking statements, which are subject to various risks and uncertainties. These include statements with respect to the Company’s corporate plans, strategies and beliefs and other statement that are not historical facts. These statement can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “may”, “will”, “expect” , “intend”, “estimate”, “continue”, “plan” or other similar words. The statements are based on the assumptions and beliefs of the Company’s management in light of the information currently available to the Company. These assumptions involve risks and uncertainties which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Nothing in this Presentation is, or should be relied
BTS Group Earnings Presentation 2
Section
BTSG 3Q 2018/19 FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE
Section
BUSINESS UPDATES
BTS Group Earnings Presentation 3
prepared by Investor Relations department BTS Group Holdings PCL
4 BTS Group Earnings Presentation Section 1: BTSG 3Q 2018/19 Financial Performance
Strong growth in revenue and profitability
+33.8% YoY Net profit (after MI)
FINANCIAL POSITION
Cash & Liquid Investments*
Balance sheet strength
Adjusted Net D/E
Low leverage despite the increase in debt
Net investment in Pink & Yellow Lines
Investment phase continues;
Net investment in Green Line Extensions
Investment in Kerry Express Thailand
P&L HIGHLIGHTS 9M CASH FLOW
+290.5% YoY Total operating revenue
construction
for Green Line Extensions
Key revenue components:
*includes cash balance of THB 6.9bn, current investments of THB 8.6bn, L/T investments of THB 8.4bn
prepared by Investor Relations department BTS Group Holdings PCL
OPERATING REVENUE COMPARISON (YoY)
INCOME STATEMENT (THB mn) 3Q 2018/19 3Q 2017/18 % YoY 2Q 2018/19 % QoQ 9M 2018/19 9M 2017/18 %YoY Operating Revenue1 19,035 4,875 291% 15,806 20% 37,894 10,528 260% Gross operating profit 2,305 1,552 49% 1,824 26% 5,603 4,125 36% Operating EBITDA2 1,858 1,144 62% 1,401 33% 4,391 2,936 50% Recurring net profit – after MI 980 938 5% 830 18% 2,282 1,700 34% Accounting EBITDA 2,345 1,697 38% 1,681 40% 5,140 4,204 22% Net income (loss)3 1,189 888 34% 670 77% 2,246 1,946 15% Gross operating profit margin (%) 12.1% 31.8% 11.5% 14.8% 39.2% Accounting EBITDA margin (%) 12.0% 31.1% 10.3% 13.3% 35.3% Recurring net profit margin – after MI(%) 5.1% 17.1% 5.1% 5.9% 14.7% Operating EBITDA margin (%) 9.8% 23.5% 8.9% 11.6% 27.9%
P&L SNAPSHOT
3Q 2018/19 OPERATING REVENUE BREAKDOWN
1 operating revenue of 4 BUs & share of net profit from BTSGIF 2 excluding non-mass transit interest income 3to equity holders of the parent
5
90% Mass Transit 8% Media 0% Property 2% Services BTS Group Earnings Presentation Section 1: BTSG 3Q 2018/19 Financial Performance
4,875 19,035 13,478 483 288
Q3 FY17/18 Mass Transit Media Property Services Q3 FY18/19
(51)% 345% 50% 370% (THB mn)
(89)
prepared by Investor Relations department BTS Group Holdings PCL
CFO
by
5.5bn (this includes net investment in mass transit projects of THB 11.4bn)
* CFO: After
** CFI: After net investment for construction of the Pink and Yellow Lines of THB 9.5bn *** Excluding liquid investments of THB 17.1bn
CFI
Yellow lines of THB 9.5bn
associates of THB 4.6bn, mainly for an investment in Kerry Express Thailand of THB 5.0bn
treasury investments
income of THB 0.5bn
6 BTS Group Earnings Presentation Section 1: BTSG 3Q 2018/19 Financial Performance
9,458 (12,822)* (10,544)** 20,865 6,895*** (61) Beginning cash (31/3/18) CFO CFI CFF Others Ending cash (31/12/18)
(THB mn)
CFF
B/E of THB 6.8bn mainly for the Pink & Yellow lines
(re. Pink and Yellow line projects) of THB 3.7bn and (ii) non-controlling interests for issuances of MACO’s
from (i) non-controlling interests from the exercise of VGI warrants and (ii) the issuance of addional VGI’s
prepared by Investor Relations department BTS Group Holdings PCL
Services revenue from provision of E&M works for Gold Line Mass Transit related Interest income 2% Construction revenue for Pink and Yellow Lines 80% O&M 3%
HISTORICAL OPERATING REVENUE (THB mn) KEY FACTORS
to THB 289mn
as a result of the full opening of Southern Green Line ext. in Dec 18 and the contractually agreed increase in the operating fee of the existing ext.
construction cost for the Pink and Yellow Lines
OPERATING PERFORMANCE
MASS TRANSIT (THB mn) 3Q 2018/19 3Q 2017/18 %YoY 2Q 2018/19 %QoQ 9M 2018/19 9M 2017/18 %YoY Revenue 17,120 3,642 370% 14,255 20% 33,188 6,953 377% Costs of revenue 15,750 2,808 461% 13,177 20% 30,047 4,886 515% Gross profit 1,370 834 64% 1,078 27% 3,140 2,067 52% Operating EBITDA 1,378 842 64% 1,085 27% 3,165 2,093 51% Gross margin (%) 8.0% 22.9% 7.6% 9.5% 29.7% Operating EBITDA margin (%) 8.1% 23.1% 7.6% 9.5% 30.1%
OPERATING REVENUE BREAKDOWN
Farebox BRT 0%
3Q 2018/19
7
Services revenue from provision
train procurement for Green Line ext. 13%
BTS Group Earnings Presentation Section 1: BTSG 3Q 2018/19 Financial Performance
1% Share in BTSGIF 1%
452 468 452 452 565 213 233 252 228 244 239 109 234 193 242 289 2,848 1,205 926 1,524 2,183 11,777 13,616 14 16 15
3Q 17/18 4Q 17/18 1Q 18/19 2Q 18/19 3Q 18/19
Farebox BRT Construction revenue for Pink and Yellow Lines Services revenue from provision of E&M works & train procurement for Green Line ext. Interest income related to Green Line ext., Pink and Yellow Lines Share of net profit in BTSGIF Services revenue from provision of E&M works for Gold Line O&M
prepared by Investor Relations department BTS Group Holdings PCL
HISTORICAL OPERATING REVENUE (THB mn) KEY FACTORS
driven by organic growth of all business and the full-quarter consolidation of Trans.Ad Group
robust growth across all business units
mainly due to the full-quarter consolidation of Trans.Ad Group as well as the increase in project management fees and lead generation of Rabbit Group
quarter consolidation of Trans.Ad Group
39% BTS – Related Media 20% Outdoor Media MEDIA (THB mn) 3Q 2018/19 3Q 2017/18 %YoY 2Q 2018/19 %QoQ 9M 2018/19 9M 2017/18 %YoY Operating revenue 1,460 976 50% 1,205 21% 3,741 2,795 34% Costs of revenue 596 310 92% 457 30% 1,361 913 49% Gross profit 864 667 30% 748 15% 2,380 1,882 26% Operating EBITDA 632 508 25% 537 18% 1,757 1,448 21% Gross margin (%) 59.2% 68.3% 62.1% 63.6% 67.3% Operating EBITDA margin (%) 43.3% 52.0% 44.6% 47.0% 51.8%
3Q 2018/19
OPERATING PERFORMANCE OPERATING REVENUE BREAKDOWN
8
7% Office Buildings and Others 34% Digital
*OOH Media includes Transit, Outdoor and Office Building and Other Media
BTS Group Earnings Presentation Section 1: BTSG 3Q 2018/19 Financial Performance
894 1,020 990 909 965 82 87 87 296 495
3Q 17/18 4Q 17/18 1Q 18/19 2Q 18/19 3Q 18/19
Digital Services Media OOH
prepared by Investor Relations department BTS Group Holdings PCL
Residential 0%
HISTORICAL OPERATING REVENUE (THB mn) KEY FACTORS
decreased by 51% YoY, primarily attributable to the deconsolidation of the majority of BTS property business as a result of the EBT of UE to U City in 4Q 17/18
82mn (THB 29mn loss in 3Q 2017/18) as U City turn profitable in this quarter
revenue, reducing by 25% YoY or THB 27mn to THB 79mn.
OPERATING PERFORMANCE
PROPERTY (THB mn) 3Q 2018/19 3Q 2017/18 %YoY 2Q 2018/19 %QoQ 9M 2018/19 9M 2017/18 %YoY Operating Revenue 85 174 (51)% 87 (3)% 256 479 (47)% Costs of revenue 79 105 (25)% 73 8% 220 308 (29)% Gross profit 6 68 (91)% 14 (57)% 37 171 (79)% Operating EBITDA (24) 12 (304)% 6 (522)% 4 1 221% Gross margin (%) 7.3% 39.4% 16.3% 14.3% 35.8% Operating EBITDA margin (%) (27.8)% 6.7% 6.4% 1.7% 0.3%
OPERATING REVENUE BREAKDOWN
3Q 2018/19
NOTE: Property operating performances exclude share of profit/(loss) from investment in BTS-SIRI JVs, U City and Bayswater.
9
100% Commercial & Others BTS Group Earnings Presentation Section 1: BTSG 3Q 2018/19 Financial Performance
174 160 80 87 85
3Q 17/18 4Q 17/18 1Q 18/19 2Q 18/19 3Q 18/19
prepared by Investor Relations department BTS Group Holdings PCL
46,364 53,557 36,971 43,863 22,923 39,079
31 Mar 18 31 Dec 18
136,499 106,258 84,968 111,859 21,290 22,640
31 Mar 18 31 Dec 18
136,499 106,258 Cash 31 Mar 18: THB 9bn 31 Dec 18: THB 7bn Current Investments 31 Mar 18: THB 6bn 31 Dec 18: THB 9bn Long-Term Investments 31 Mar 18: THB 16bn 31 Dec 18: THB 11bn Gross Debt 31 Mar 18: THB 47bn 31 Dec 18: THB 63bn Adjusted Net Debt* 31 Mar 18: THB 17bn 31 Dec 18: THB 40bn ***** Issued Ordinary Shares 31 Mar 18: 11,940mn 31 Dec 18: 11,845mn 80% 20% 17% 83% 29% 39% 32% 44% 21% 35%
3Q 2018/19:
1.19x
3Q 2017/18: 1.07x
Gross Debt to Equity
3Q 2018/19:
0.74x
3Q 2017/18: 0.34x
Adjusted Net Debt* to Equity
3Q 2018/19:
5.75x
3Q 2017/18: 3.14x
Adjusted Net Debt* to Recurring EBITDA
3Q 2018/19: 4.09x 3Q 2017/18: 3.65x
Interest Coverage
3Q 2018/19:
0.58x
3Q 2017/18: 1.13x
Current Ratio
ASSET BREAKDOWN LIABILITIES AND EQUITY BREAKDOWN KEY RATIOS
10
*Adjusted Net Debt = Interest Bearing Debt – Cash and Cash Equivalent and Liquid Investment
BTS Group Earnings Presentation Section 1: BTSG 3Q 2018/19 Financial Performance (THB mn) (THB mn)
Section
BTSG 3Q 2018/19 FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE
Section
BUSINESS UPDATES
11 BTS Group Earnings Presentation
prepared by Investor Relations department BTS Group Holdings PCL
12
FY 2018/19
Ridership Growth Revised Target
YTD
Ridership: Actual
FY 2018/19
Avg Fare Increase Target
YTD
FY 2018/19
Fare-box Increase Revised Target
YTD
Farebox: Actual
+1% +1.5-2% +2.5-3%
+3.0% +2.4% Ridership Fare
BTS Group Earnings Presentation Business Updates
60.8 60.2 57.1 61.2 61.6 1.7% 0.2%
1.3%
7.1% 0.6%
3Q 2017/18 4Q 2017/18 1Q 2018/19 2Q 2018/19 3Q 2018/19
Ridership (mn trips) Passenger Growth (YoY) Passenger Growth (QoQ)
28.7 28.8 29.0* 28.8 29.1* 3.2% 3.3% 3.9% 3.7% 1.5% 3.2% 0.4% 0.9%
1.0%
25.0 30.03Q 2017/18 4Q 2017/18 1Q 2018/19 2Q 2018/19 3Q 2018/19
Average Fare (THB/trip) Average Fare Growth (YoY) Average Fare Growth (QoQ)
*Excluding the impact of free-trip allowance to passengers from train services disruption
prepared by Investor Relations department BTS Group Holdings PCL
13 BTS Group Earnings Presentation Business Updates
FY 2018/19
Ridership Growth Target (Revised)
YTD
Ridership: Actual
FY 2018/19
Avg Fare Increase Target
YTD
FY 2018/19
Fare-box Increase Target (Revised)
YTD
Farebox: Actual
+1% +1.5-2% +2.5-3%
+2.8% +2.5%
JAN 19 SUMMARY YTD SUMMARY (APR-JAN, 10 MONTHS)
*Before discount
Ridership Fare
17.9 19.3 20.0 19.7 21.5 19.9 20.1 21.2 20.3 20.8
0.7%
3.8% 0.4% -0.1% 3.0%
10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0
Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19
Ridership (mn trips) % YoY ridership growth 29.4 29.0 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.7 28.9 28.9 29.5 28.9 3.2% 3.7% 4.6% 3.3% 4.0% 3.7% 3.4% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7%
28.2 28.4 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.8
Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19
Average fare price (THB) % Change YoY
prepared by Investor Relations department BTS Group Holdings PCL
14 Included in Masterplan 17 Oct 18 Included in Masterplan 17 Oct 18 NTP issued 29 Jun 18 NTP issued 29 Jun 18
*Sources: Information was from MRTA and the Company’s report as of 31 December 2018
NORTHERN GREEN LINE EXT. (Mochit - Khukot) 18.2km/ 16 stations PINK LINE (Khae Rai – Min Buri) 34.5km/ 30 stations YELLOW LINE (Ladprao - Samrong) 30.4km/ 23 stations
FY 17/18 FY 18/19 FY 19/20 FY 20/21
Targeted 1st station: (Aug 2019) Targeted full Operation (2020)
Contract Signed
FY 21/22
Targeted
(Oct 2021) Targeted
(Oct 2021)
Contract Signed
Construction Period Construction Period Construction Period
93%
PINK LINE (EXTENSION) (Sirat – Impact 2) 3.0m/ 2 stations YELLOW LINE (EXTENSION) (Ratchada - Ratchayothin) 2.6km/ 2 stations GOLD LINE PHASE 1 (Krung Thon Buri – Klong San) 1.7km/ 3 stations Targeted
(by Sep 2020) O&M contract Signed (31 Jul 18) Construction Period
21% 7% 7% 23% 21% 7%
Civil E&M Progress(%)*
BTS Group Earnings Presentation Business Updates
prepared by Investor Relations department BTS Group Holdings PCL
Sources: MRTA, the Company
FY 17/18 FY 18/19 FY 19/20 FY 20/21 FY 21/22 WESTERN GREEN LINE EXT.
(Bang Wa – Taling Chan) 7.0km/ 6 stations Targeted Full operation Targeted Full operation Expected open bid/ award Expected open bid/ award
LRT
(Bangna - Suvarnabhumi) 18.3km/ 14 stations
GREY LINE PHASE 1
(Watcharaphon - Thonglo) 16.3km/ 15 stations
ORANGE LINE
(Min Buri – Taling Chan) 39.6km/ 29 stations Expected open bid/ award Expected open bid/ award Targeted Full operation Targeted Full operation
FY 22/23
Construction Period Construction Period Construction Period Construction Period BTS Group Earnings Presentation Business Updates 15
prepared by Investor Relations department BTS Group Holdings PCL
16
7 trains arrived Another 15 trains will be completely delivered by 2019 First batch expected to arrive by 1H 2019 The remaining will be completely delivered by 2020
BTS Group Earnings Presentation Business Updates
prepared by Investor Relations department BTS Group Holdings PCL
BTS Group Earnings Presentation Business Updates IMMERSIVE DIGITAL MEDIA TARGETING PREMIUM AUDIENCE VISUAL IMPACT EXCLUSIVE AIRTIME ENGAGING CREATIVE 17
prepared by Investor Relations department BTS Group Holdings PCL
BTS Group Earnings Presentation Business Updates IMPACT / ENGAGEMENT AD RECALL When asked “how often do you look at the media?” the response for “all the time” increased by 110%. The number of brands recalled by the BTS passengers. CONVERSION RATE* Conversion rate = total people who look / total people exposed to the advertising 118%
*Using visual recognition technology
50% 110%
CONSUMER RESEARCH: PRE VS. POST PILOT STUDY OF BTS PASSENGERS
18
prepared by Investor Relations department BTS Group Holdings PCL
BTS Group Earnings Presentation Business Updates RABBIT CARD Rabbit Card circulation reached 10.3mn cards. Nearly achieving its full-year target of 10.5mn cards.
9.0 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.6 9.8 9.9 10.1 10.3 10.5 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Mar-19
FY Target +15.1% YTD RABBIT LINEPAY
2.9 3.1 3.2 3.4 3.8 4.2 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.1 5.3 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Mar-19
partnership with AIS Single e-wallet with BTS and Rabbit Card FY Target +72.7% YTD Rabbit LinePay serves more than 5.1mn users, an increase of 73% YoY. 19
prepared by Investor Relations department BTS Group Holdings PCL
BTS Group Earnings Presentation Business Updates
LEAFLET FOR SAMPLING RABBIT REWARDS SURVEY
20
prepared by Investor Relations department BTS Group Holdings PCL
BTS Group Earnings Presentation Business Updates
WHY THANA CITY?
Bangna-Trad highway and near a future LRT station.
designed golf course, renowned ChefMan Chinese restaurant and spaces to accommodate a range of events i.e. weddings, business meetings, seminars, etc. 21
prepared by Investor Relations department BTS Group Holdings PCL
BTS Group Earnings Presentation Business Updates Board of Directors Approved the transaction U City EGM record date U City EGM for shareholders’ approval Private placement (PP) subscription for rounding purpose Par value per share adjusted to THB 100 Rights adjustment of all warrants (U-W1 -> U-W4) Commence trading with new par value after reverse stock split 30 Aug 18 12 Oct 18 31 Oct 18 14 Sep 18 17 Oct 18 5 Nov 18 Commence trading with new par value of THB 3.2 after capital reduction 26 Dec 18 Creditor objection period (2 months) 22
prepared by Investor Relations department BTS Group Holdings PCL
Total CAPEX & Investments
BTS Group Earnings Presentation Business Updates
Total Revenue
THB 7,200 - 7,500mn Hospitality Revenue
THB 6,200 - 6,500mn Office Revenue
THB 300 - 350mn
EBITDA Margin
23
Section
BTSG 3Q 2018/19 FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE
Section
BUSINESS UPDATES
BTS Group Earnings Presentation 24
prepared by Investor Relations department BTS Group Holdings PCL
MEDIA
FY 2018/19 BTS GROUP TARGETS
Targeted Media Revenue (revised from THB 4.4-4.6bn)
Core Network ridership growth (revised from 4-5%)
Core Network average fare increase
Train O&M revenue growth
Revenue from E&M provision and train procurement for Green Line South and North extensions
Targeted BTS Group Property Revenue (more details in U City presentation)
Construction revenue for Pink and Yellow Lines
Targeted U City Property Revenue
(U City 2018 Revenue: THB 7bn)
(at U City level)
(U City 2018 EBTIDA margin: 19%)
Interest income from train procurement for Green Line extensions and construction revenue for Pink and Yellow lines
MASS TRANSIT
FY 2018/19 CAPEX: THB 27-34BN
(Excludes: BTSGIF CAPEX )
Line South and North extensions
construction
(Excludes: Real estate development cost)
PROPERTY
BTS Group Earnings Presentation Appendix 25
prepared by Investor Relations department BTS Group Holdings PCL
(THB mn) BTS Group Earnings Presentation Appendix
239 18 (14) (3) 241 Mass Transit Media Property Services Total
26
prepared by Investor Relations department BTS Group Holdings PCL
BTS Group Earnings Presentation Appendix
TICKER BTS-W4 TERM 1 YEAR FROM THE ISSUANCE DATE ISSUANCE DATE 30 NOVEMBER 2018 EXPIRY DATE 29 NOVEMBER 2019 WARRANTS PRICE NIL
UP TO 1,755,034,187 UNITS ALLOCATION TO EXISTING SHAREHOLDERS AT THE RATIO OF 9 EXISTING BTS SHARES : 1 BTS-W4 EXERCISE RATIO 1 BTS-W4 TO 1 NEW COMMON SHARE OF BTS EXERCISE PRICE THB 10.50 PER SHARE EXPECTED MAXIMUM PROCEEDS THB 18.4BN EXERCISE PERIOD QUARTERLY
WARRANTS TERMS AND CONDITIONS
27