1 This -- and similar imageryhas become the face of climate change - - PDF document

Climate change is here. Natural ecosystems are defenses against climate change. But our conservation paradigm to protect these natural ecosystem is mal-adapted. And we have to take urgent action to remedy the situation. And you, the business community has to be part of the equation because it will also affect sustainable economic development.

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This -- and similar imagery—has become the face of climate change that we are frequently exposed to.

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And of course there is also a constant barrage of cartoons…. But the fact is that while imagery of an emaciated and lonely polar bear on a small ice floe will elicit some transient and brief empathy, and the cartoons will give you a chuckle, they hardly make you stop and think long enough about the consequences to change your

• behaviour. Especially since they seem so far away… from reality, distance, and time.

So there are very real misconceptions about what the consequences of climate change are.

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So, here is the real face of climate change…. Its not about sea level rise. Its not about warming temperatures that will leave polar bears stranded on small pieces of floating ice. Or Santa Clause in shorts. Its about human suffering and death from conflict, disease, and starvation. Its about unstable governance and a possible global apocalypse that will happen long before sea level rise becomes a significant event.

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This is Syria. Where the impacts of climate change are being manifested now. We’ve all seen and heard the sights and sounds. But am sure you have not yet connected this to climate change. So here’s the back story.

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Beginning in 2006, there was an extended drought in the Fertile Crescent, along the upper part of the Arabian Peninsula and long considered to be the ‘cradle of

• civilization. Syria is part of this region.

The drought caused extensive loss of ground water sources. Millions of farmers and herders lost their livelihoods, and were compelled to move into urban areas for refuge and in search of opportunities and options for survival. But this influx of refugees over-crowded the cities pushing them beyond the limits of carrying capacities… increasing unemployment and crime, and creating social and governance tensions. These marginalized and desperate refugees then became pawns of political and religious extremists who used them to create the conflict and eventually spark another exodus out of the Middle East. But then, also think about how that refugee crisis into the western world has catalyzed a sea change in the socio-geopolitical landscape… from Europe to North

• America. The effects of these geo-political changes will no doubt cascade into global

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markets, international relations and global policies in the coming months and years. As business leaders who travel widely and have international dealing, you may have already experienced some of this pushback and hostilities. 6

Now, this trend of prolonged droughts and warming air temperatures are concordant with models and projections of climate change for this region. All this was documented and reported in a prestigious, peer-reviewed scientific journal, the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States. So this is not fake news or some wishy-washy story aimed at fear mongering. 7

But we are not done yet. Here’s another article in the same journal that appeared a year later that is also relevant, especially for us, here in Sri Lanka. The headline says it all. And none of us here, am sure, want to go back to this.

So, for those who think that climate change is a distant event, both geographically and far in the future, and that Sri Lanka is buffered from its impacts and we can ignore it. It’s not. It’s real. And its happening now. And it IS affecting us. Just think about what’s been happening over the past four years… 8

Let’s go back to May 2016. You may recall the severe floods that happened. People lost their lives, property, and livelihoods. Some of the world’s most expensive expressways went underwater. Then, just 8 months later, by January 2017, most of the country was gripped in a severe, prolonged drought. Farmers whose crops were lost committed suicide, since they were unable to pay their debts. More than half the country was stuck without water. People became dehydrated, fell sick, and some died. And that drought persisted until early this year, when rains caused floods in the north. But part of the country was under floodwaters again in May 2017, after more than half a meter of rain fell in the southwestern hills within a couple days. These floods claimed over 200 lives. And in 2018, there were floods again, twice, with extensive loss of lives and property and livelihoods. 9

So we are seeing a recurring pattern here, of frequent and extreme rainfall events in parts of the country, while the rest of the country has no rain. The predictable monsoons that brought rainfall distributed throughout a 3 to 5 month period is gone now. The weather patterns have changed. The climate has changed. And this fits well with the climate change models for Sri Lanka. So welcome to the future! 9

Now, all of these natural disasters come with very heavy economic costs, in addition to the social and health-related costs. The economic and social and livelihood costs have been estimated at about 1.5 to 2 Billion USD with each flood or drought event. 10

Just this month, the Finance Ministry put out new figures. It costs the government

Rs 50 to 60 billion to assist the people during natural disasters..

Can we, as a country struggling to advance and develop economically afford this? 11

Clearly not, according to the economic indicators and monitors. The signs are clear. The natural disasters are affecting the national economy and economic development plans and targets.

The government is now desperately looking for Foreign Direct Investment. But who will invest when there is a high probability that the factories and infrastructure will become flooded and destroyed? When the chances of access to sustained water and other ecosystem services are low. 12

And it’s also going to have serious consequences on stable governance, which, as you know better than me, has consequences on economic growth and stability as well.

After the local government election debacle last year, the Prime Minister and some

• f the senior ministers blamed the rejection of the government on the natural

disasters that led to socio-economic impacts. And threats of violence by Big Onion farmers may seem inconsequential, but these can soon escalate and spread as conditions become desperate. And that’s when the people can become susceptible to extremist interests, especially in our fractured socio-political system, where self-interest prevails. Remember Syria. So these are the very real and current threats and impacts of climate change. And its affecting us. 13

So here’s the other misconception. When we talk about biodiversity conservation in Sri Lanka, these are the images that immediately pop into our heads. The leopards, elephants, bears. And we think about Yala and Wilpattu, and maybe Uda Walawe. And we talk about how crowded these parks, with traffic jams created by tourist jeeps. But are these the most important biodiversity conservation priorities for Sri Lanka? I think not. We have got our priorities all wrong.

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The reality is that our most important conservation priorities are unprotected. And even go un-noticed. The priorities for Sri Lanka should be the endemic species, like this Sri Lanka Blue Magpie and this rough nosed horned lizard with its funny nose, and thousands more.. Endemic species live in Sri Lanka and nowhere else on earth. They have evolved here over

• millenia. And if they are lost from our forests and wetlands and rivers they are gone.

Forever. But many people have not seen most of these species, and some may not have even heard about them, because they are small, and cryptic. They are very difficult to find and even see, let alone observe. And the majority, over 80% of them live in the rainforests of the southwest and the mountain regions. And not in places like Yala, or Wilpattu, or Uda Walawe. And yet, the rainforests remain largely unprotected. The British took care of most of these forests by treating them as a giant and convenient source of tea for the gentlemen and ladies to sip while gossiping in their parlours. But we

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still continue to destroy these very very valuable forests that harbour our irreplaceable biodiversity. So we have got our conservation priorities wrong. And its not just about the frogs and butterflies and lizards. Its also about conserving and sustainably managing the ecosystem services we depend on from the forests these species live in. These forests are critically important to also support us and national economic development priorities. How?

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Before I get into that, let me give you a one-minute refresher course in O level geography. If you are like me, you would have forgotten all of that by now. All of Sri Lanka is habitable because of the central mountains. These mountains intercept the two alternating monsoons, and causes orographic

• rainfall. That is rainfall produced when the warm, moisture laden monsoon

winds hit the mountains, and are forced upwards, along the mountain sides. As the air ascends, it cools, and the moisture is released as rainfall. Then the 103 major rivers that originate from these central mountains and radiate out, become the conduits that distribute water to the rest of the island. Without these mountains, Sri Lanka would be a very different place to live in. It will likely be an arid, dry interior, rather than a lush rainforest. Think about 16

Australia, with its tiny Ayer’s Rock sitting in the middle or a desert. If only they could grow that rock into a large mountain range, that super island could support many more people, than just along the coast. 16

Now forested watersheds and mountain slopes -- through which the rivers run -- sustain and regulate the water flows from rainfall. Forest cover allows the rain to infiltrate into the ground, and be released gradually, through time. If the mountain slopes are deforested, the rainfall will flow down as surface water, and cause erosion, floods and landslides. Similarly, removing the coral reefs, the mangroves and high sand dunes also results in coastal erosion. We see that happening now, here in Sri Lanka. 17

The forests are being cleared and degraded, mostly illegally. And often with political connivance. The Forest Department just recently said that we have been losing over 8,000 ha of forests a year. Mangroves are being converted to prawn farms that we know are unsustainable. Most coral reefs have been destroyed and even the recovering reefs are being

• dynamited. Sand dunes are being flattened.

While these actions benefit a few people they have much much greater societal costs, that all of us and future generations have to bear because we are losing our first lines of defense against natural disasters, leaving us vulnerable. 18

Science tells us that loss, fragmentation, and degradation of the ecosystems compromise their ability to sustain biodiversity and also to provide the ecosystem services that support and sustain economic growth, protect human livelihoods and even lives. And eventually, result in heavy economic costs and have governance consequences as well. So now, biodiversity – and ecosystem -- conservation becomes important not just to save a few frogs and fishes and elephants anymore. Its also about our survival. Our economic development and the chance to live in a stable environment with stable governance. These added dimensions push biodiversity conservation way up the ladder of priorities for the government. Or they should. And it also makes good business and political sense to conserve these natural ecosystems and the ecological processes that sustain them. 19

And this is where our small, and cryptic endemic species become important conservation targets, and part of a sound conservation strategy for building resilience against climate change. Remember that these species live in the wet zone and mountain rainforests. So conserving and even protecting these forests and their biodiversity becomes an important priority. To paraphrase E.O Wilson, the scientist, and Emeritus professor at Harvard, who coined the term ‘Biodiversity’, ‘it’s the little things who run the world’. And its true. Another Stanford scientist, Paul Ehrlich, drew a great analogy to show this - the importance of these small species, by comparing an ecosystem to an

• airplane. He compared the large and quite obvious parts of the aircraft such

as the engines, the wings, the rudder, and body etc. to the charismatic mega- vertebrates, like the leopards and elephants that first come to mind when you think of wildlife conservation. 20

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But what about the little guys? The ants, bees, wasps, butterflies, snails? Many of the endemic species. Well, they would be the rivets, the nuts and the bolts that you hardly ever notice as you board the aircraft. Now, as you board the aircraft, you would immediately notice if an engine is

• missing. Or a wing…. And you obviously not board the aircraft. But what

about the rivets and the nuts and bolts? You won’t notice them, but what if they begin to fall off? One by one… And then .. After several key ones fall

• ff, the plane itself starts to fall apart.

And this is exactly what’s happening. Here we are on this spaceship hurtling through space and the nuts and bolts are falling off as we destroy and degrade the environment where the small species that hold the ecosystems together are being lost. Sri Lanka is fast losing its most important ecosystems. We will soon reach 21

the tipping point unnoticed. And then it will be too late. So we need to pay attention and make sure that our nuts and bolts are

• secured. They are the indicators that something is wrong with the ecosystems

and that we are becoming more vulnerable and less able to build resilience against natural disasters. 21

So, to tie things up then, there was a recent paper in Nature, another very prestigious scientific journal, that basically said that the private sector is already experiencing the impacts of climate change from increased operational costs due to disrupted production.

An annual survey of business and government leaders conducted by the World Economic Forum identified “the failure of climate change mitigation and adaptation” to be among the most likely and impactful risks to business. The physical risks are becoming manifested as serious disasters such as very severe tropical storms that cause massive economic setbacks, or can be chronic and sustained impacts such as an increase in the number of extreme heat days or prolonged droughts. The harm to a business and its viability from these risks could occur in many ways, such as plant shutdowns from floods, employee illness from unhealthy environments, disruption of transport or electricity, etc. But others could be ‘blind spots’ that are not very obvious. For instance 22

transportation costs could increase because warmer air temperatures result in more fuel used for air transportation. Or ocean storms result in increased sea transport logistics costs. And lets not forget the violent big onion farmers. But what’s also significant is that the authors stress the importance of ecosystem- based adaptation strategies to decrease vulnerabilities and economic costs to businesses to avert what they call a ‘tragedy of the horizon’ because of inadequate and

delayed actions.

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So what are these ecosystem based strategies. Well, they are basically using biodiversity -- that is the species and their habitats and ecosystems, and the ecosystem services they provide -- as part of an overall strategy to help people and communities adapt to climate change and the consequent natural disasters. And to build resilience against these impacts.

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And what are the ecosystem services….. They include a range, from food and wood to energy and medicines and water to crop pollination as well as aesthetic and spiritual benefits. They benefit individuals, communities, and businesses. So its in everyone’s interest to ensure these are conserved and sustained. An analysis of ecosystem goods and services—globally– estimates that the their contribution to the global economy is 124 Trillion USD. So doesn’t it makes good business sense to invest in the environment that provides these services? Doesn’t it make good economic and even political sense to invest in forest restoration? And to restore the offshore reefs, and the mangroves, so they build resilience against these disasters caused by climate change, which is costing the country about 3 Billion USD or more every year.

And doesn’t it make even more sense to protect what we have already? It should actually be an imperative, since it has consequences on national security and stable governance.

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But, lets not wait for the politicians. While the politicians pay lip service and tap dance around the problem, we, and you should take the initiative. After all, politicians look at a selfish and self-serving 4 or 5 year time horizon. But the businesses have to think longer term. And you have the power, the capability and the resources to take action and do good. And to lead. You depend on environmental goods and services to sustain your businesses. So take the lead and invest in environmental sustainability and biodiversity conservation. And take it seriously, and not approach it as a mere CSR tick box. Make sure what you do counts

and contributes in a strategic and synergistic way. The Environmental Foundation has been around for almost four decades now, fighting for environmental justice, including in court. Over the years we have noticed that the understanding of environmental issues and the consequences of environmental degradation and biodiversity loss has waned, including within the

• judiciary. This is sad and also alarming, considering that the consequences are more

serious now. 25

And I want to emphasize that EFL’s objective is not to stifle or prevent economic development, but to make it more sustainable. After all, the ecological and economic data show that economic sustainability is predicated on ecological and environmental sustainability. So as a society we must take a stand and contribute to ecosystem-based conservation

actions that not only conserves Sri Lanka’s biological heritage, but also sustains your business and livelihoods. And our futures.

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We need to think about 22nd century strategies and approaches. We have to integrate conservation and economic development. And we need to prioritize our irreplaceable biodiversity… and integrate climate change into our planning systems because climate change has become such a major threat to biodiversity, ecosystems, and also to human communities and to economic development. We have to plan and take action at ecosystem scales to also include the ecosystem processes and services into the planning matrix so they will also sustain economic targets. 26

So what can we do? What can you do? We see many corporates that undertake environmental activities, such as tree planting campaigns, and beach clean ups. All this is done as part of the CSR obligations. While commendable, I don’t believe that many of these really contribute to long term environmental sustainability or biodiversity conservation. A lot of it are feel good activities. Forests are very very complex organisms. And planting trees anywhere will not get you a true forest with all of its complexities. Many of the species that contributes to the ecological structure and function of forests,…. or coral reefs or mangroves and other ecosystems, for that matter ---, are cryptic and go unnoticed. For instance, I wonder how many of you would have heard of the Wood Wide Web?

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It’s a network of fungi that lives in the forest floor and connects trees with each other so the trees can actually communicate with each other, and pass on information about food availability and dangers of insect infestations. ‘Adult’ trees for instance can actually share food with younger trees and treat sick trees through this web. So for those who feel quite smug about building elaborate and efficient communications and logistics networks as part of corporate management…. Just remember that fungi and trees beat you to it…. The point is that its very difficult to get these complex interactions that create this complex forest ecosystem back. So the first priority is to conserve what we have. And plan any forest restoration and reforestation programs in a strategic way so they contribute to building resilience and also to national targets. And we have some.

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Sri Lanka has pledged to increase forest cover to 30% as part of our contribution to the global community to tackle climate change at the Climate Conference of Parties in Paris, in

• 2015. And then set a target to restore 200,000 ha as forest landscapes to the Bonn

Challenge, a global deal to set forest conservation targets. So WHERE you plant trees also become important. And WHAT you plant with is important. And monitoring is important.

We have to prioritize spaces so we build ecological resilience where its most

• needed. We have to change our conservation paradigm to look beyond leopards

and elephants. Not that they are unimportant, but we cannot overlook the other priorities . We need to think big and bold and not business as usual. The current and emerging threats demand that for our own survival now, and for the well-being of next generations so they don’t have to scrabble around in a post apocalyptic Mad-Maxian world. 29

So I ask you. Doesn’t it make good business sense to conserve our biodiversity? 29

Thank you for listening and for inviting me to provide you with some food for thought, along with your lunch. I hope you will think about some of these issues, talk about them and that we can continue this dialogue. Twenty minutes is hardly enough to address all the issues. So please do get in touch with me and/or EFL so we can work together to build synergy in environmental and economic sustainability. Thanks again.

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