Climate change is here. Natural ecosystems are defenses against climate change. But our conservation paradigm to protect these natural ecosystem is mal-adapted. And we have to take urgent action to remedy the situation. And you, the business community has to be part of the equation because it will also affect sustainable economic development. 1
This -- and similar imagery—has become the face of climate change that we are frequently exposed to. 2
And of course there is also a constant barrage of cartoons…. But the fact is that while imagery of an emaciated and lonely polar bear on a small ice floe will elicit some transient and brief empathy, and the cartoons will give you a chuckle, they hardly make you stop and think long enough about the consequences to change your behaviour. Especially since they seem so far away… from reality, distance, and time. So there are very real misconceptions about what the consequences of climate change are. 3
So, here is the real face of climate change…. Its not about sea level rise. Its not about warming temperatures that will leave polar bears stranded on small pieces of floating ice. Or Santa Clause in shorts. Its about human suffering and death from conflict, disease, and starvation. Its about unstable governance and a possible global apocalypse that will happen long before sea level rise becomes a significant event. 4
This is Syria. Where the impacts of climate change are being manifested now. We’ve all seen and heard the sights and sounds. But am sure you have not yet connected this to climate change. So here’s the back story. 5
Beginning in 2006, there was an extended drought in the Fertile Crescent, along the upper part of the Arabian Peninsula and long considered to be the ‘cradle of civilization. Syria is part of this region. The drought caused extensive loss of ground water sources. Millions of farmers and herders lost their livelihoods, and were compelled to move into urban areas for refuge and in search of opportunities and options for survival. But this influx of refugees over-crowded the cities pushing them beyond the limits of carrying capacities… increasing unemployment and crime, and creating social and governance tensions. These marginalized and desperate refugees then became pawns of political and religious extremists who used them to create the conflict and eventually spark another exodus out of the Middle East. But then, also think about how that refugee crisis into the western world has catalyzed a sea change in the socio-geopolitical landscape… from Europe to North America. The effects of these geo-political changes will no doubt cascade into global 6
markets, international relations and global policies in the coming months and years. As business leaders who travel widely and have international dealing, you may have already experienced some of this pushback and hostilities. 6
Now, this trend of prolonged droughts and warming air temperatures are concordant with models and projections of climate change for this region. All this was documented and reported in a prestigious, peer-reviewed scientific journal, the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States. So this is not fake news or some wishy-washy story aimed at fear mongering. 7
But we are not done yet. Here’s another article in the same journal that appeared a year later that is also relevant, especially for us, here in Sri Lanka. The headline says it all. And none of us here, am sure, want to go back to this. So, for those who think that climate change is a distant event, both geographically and far in the future, and that Sri Lanka is buffered from its impacts and we can ignore it. It’s not. It’s real. And its happening now. And it IS affecting us. Just think about what’s been happening over the past four years… 8
Let’s go back to May 2016. You may recall the severe floods that happened. People lost their lives, property, and livelihoods. Some of the world’s most expensive expressways went underwater. Then, just 8 months later, by January 2017, most of the country was gripped in a severe, prolonged drought. Farmers whose crops were lost committed suicide, since they were unable to pay their debts. More than half the country was stuck without water. People became dehydrated, fell sick, and some died. And that drought persisted until early this year, when rains caused floods in the north. But part of the country was under floodwaters again in May 2017, after more than half a meter of rain fell in the southwestern hills within a couple days. These floods claimed over 200 lives. And in 2018, there were floods again, twice, with extensive loss of lives and property and livelihoods. 9
So we are seeing a recurring pattern here, of frequent and extreme rainfall events in parts of the country, while the rest of the country has no rain. The predictable monsoons that brought rainfall distributed throughout a 3 to 5 month period is gone now. The weather patterns have changed. The climate has changed. And this fits well with the climate change models for Sri Lanka. So welcome to the future! 9
Now, all of these natural disasters come with very heavy economic costs, in addition to the social and health-related costs. The economic and social and livelihood costs have been estimated at about 1.5 to 2 Billion USD with each flood or drought event. 10
Just this month, the Finance Ministry put out new figures. It costs the government Rs 50 to 60 billion to assist the people during natural disasters.. Can we, as a country struggling to advance and develop economically afford this? 11
Clearly not, according to the economic indicators and monitors. The signs are clear. The natural disasters are affecting the national economy and economic development plans and targets. The government is now desperately looking for Foreign Direct Investment. But who will invest when there is a high probability that the factories and infrastructure will become flooded and destroyed? When the chances of access to sustained water and other ecosystem services are low. 12
And it’s also going to have serious consequences on stable governance, which, as you know better than me, has consequences on economic growth and stability as well. After the local government election debacle last year, the Prime Minister and some of the senior ministers blamed the rejection of the government on the natural disasters that led to socio-economic impacts. And threats of violence by Big Onion farmers may seem inconsequential, but these can soon escalate and spread as conditions become desperate. And that’s when the people can become susceptible to extremist interests, especially in our fractured socio-political system, where self-interest prevails. Remember Syria. So these are the very real and current threats and impacts of climate change. And its affecting us. 13
So here’s the other misconception. When we talk about biodiversity conservation in Sri Lanka, these are the images that immediately pop into our heads. The leopards, elephants, bears. And we think about Yala and Wilpattu, and maybe Uda Walawe. And we talk about how crowded these parks, with traffic jams created by tourist jeeps. But are these the most important biodiversity conservation priorities for Sri Lanka? I think not. We have got our priorities all wrong. 14
The reality is that our most important conservation priorities are unprotected. And even go un-noticed. The priorities for Sri Lanka should be the endemic species, like this Sri Lanka Blue Magpie and this rough nosed horned lizard with its funny nose, and thousands more.. Endemic species live in Sri Lanka and nowhere else on earth. They have evolved here over millenia. And if they are lost from our forests and wetlands and rivers they are gone. Forever. But many people have not seen most of these species, and some may not have even heard about them, because they are small, and cryptic. They are very difficult to find and even see, let alone observe. And the majority, over 80% of them live in the rainforests of the southwest and the mountain regions. And not in places like Yala, or Wilpattu, or Uda Walawe. And yet, the rainforests remain largely unprotected. The British took care of most of these forests by treating them as a giant and convenient source of tea for the gentlemen and ladies to sip while gossiping in their parlours. But we 15
still continue to destroy these very very valuable forests that harbour our irreplaceable biodiversity. So we have got our conservation priorities wrong. And its not just about the frogs and butterflies and lizards. Its also about conserving and sustainably managing the ecosystem services we depend on from the forests these species live in. These forests are critically important to also support us and national economic development priorities. How? 15
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