1. Interconnector reliability should be considered probabilistically - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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1 interconnector reliability should be considered
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1. Interconnector reliability should be considered probabilistically - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Dec 27, 2023 254 likes •316 views

1. Interconnector reliability should be considered probabilistically Zero probability of 100% probability of coincident stress coincident stress Real world derate IC provides security IC cannot provide IC based on to both countries

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SLIDE 1

1

DRAFT frontier economics

  • 1. Interconnector reliability should be

considered probabilistically

Zero probability of coincident stress IC provides security to both countries 100% probability of coincident stress IC cannot provide security to either Real world – derate IC based on probabilities

slide-2
SLIDE 2

2

DRAFT frontier economics

  • 2. X-border capacity can be valuable to more

than one system

  • Generator provides security

in France

  • Can help Spain & Portugal if

low probability of coincident stress

  • Same principle with other

neighbours

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SLIDE 3

3

DRAFT frontier economics

  • Neighbouring generator

simple

  • Generator from other

side of continent helps security, but how much…?

  • Political difficulties
  • 3. Interconnector vs. generator participation is

not about value, but may be about practicality

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SLIDE 4

4

DRAFT frontier economics

  • 4. The nature of obligations on x-border

capacity can be complex

G available G available G available G available G bids G bids G bids G generates G generates IC exports

Increasing certainty over contribution to adequacy “Availability” “Delivery”

GENERATOR PARTICIPATION

IC available IC available IC exports

“Availability” “Delivery”

IC PARTICIPATION

  • Need to define what is

paid for – availability or delivery

  • Availability is not enough

for security

  • But delivery implies

interconnector must flow

  • no one party controls

this

  • Greater uncertainty while

intraday markets not coupled & liquid

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SLIDE 5

5

DRAFT frontier economics

  • Co-ordinated auction
  • Demand curves & resources

from various countries

  • Simultaneous clearing
  • Cheapest resources provide

required capacity

  • 5. Co-ordination of markets would be ideal –

but it is not obvious how to get there…

The ideal… Reality…

  • National arrangements
  • Mix of designs, obligations,

timing

  • No co-ordinated assessment
  • f probability of coincident

stress Cheapest resources meet adequacy needs Outcomes function of multiple (non-cost) factors