1 Background CTE Pathway Completion And Demand Workforce Outcomes - - PDF document

1

Presentation to the Education Assessment and Accountability Review Subcommittee by the Office of Education Accountability November 12, 2019

1

 Higher wages for CTE pathway completers in all program areas  Of the high-wage high-demand (HWHD) program areas:

• Highest wages for manufacturing, transportation, and construction

pathway completers

• Relatively lower wages for health pathway completers; more

completers in health than in any other program area

 Pathway completers in some non-HWHD CTE program areas—especially

agriculture —earn much more than health pathway completers

 CTE wage premiums vary by student demographic group

2

2

 Background  CTE Pathway Completion And Demand  Workforce Outcomes  Conclusions And Future Considerations

3

KENTUCKY CENTER FOR STATISTICS

Linked and de-identified

KYSTATS KDE

CTE pathway, industry certificate/KOSSA, dual credit, co-op participation, demographics, ACT, GPA

CPE

Postsecondary degrees and credentials

Workforce Data

Wages Sector

OEA



2019 survey of principals in all ATCs, LAVECs, and comprehensive high schools



Site visits and interviews with superintendents and principals in 4 districts

4

3

 Wage data

• Reveal sector but not occupation
• Do not indicate full- versus part-time status

 CTE may have benefits not captured by wage

data alone

 Wage benefits of college degrees not fully

captured in this study

5

 Career Pathways

• 172 individual pathways
• Grouped into 12 program areas in report
• Graduates completing four courses considered

“completers”

 Performance-based assessments

• Industry certificates
• State-approved assessments

 Work-based learning  Dual credit

6

4  Career Pathways

• 172 individual pathways
• Grouped into 12 program areas in report
• Graduates completing four courses considered

“completers”

 Performance-based assessments

• Industry certificates
• State-approved assessment (formerly KOSSA)

 Work-based learning  Dual credit

7

Career ready indicators in previous accountability system* *Previous system required completion of at least two courses in a pathway and also required a career ready academic component.

 Career Pathways

• 172 individual pathways
• Grouped into 12 program areas in report
• Graduates completing four courses considered

“completers”

 Performance-based assessments

• Industry certificates
• State-approved assessment (formerly KOSSA)

 Work-based learning  Dual credit

8

Transition ready indicators in current accountability system

5

PROGRAMS ALIGNED WITH HWHD SECTORS*  Business  Construction  Health  Information technology (IT)  Manufacturing  Transportation and

logistics

ADDITIONAL PROGRAM AREAS  Agriculture*  Arts/AV  Human services

(consumer family sciences, food, education*, etc.)

 Law/public safety  Retail  STEM*

9

* KDE list of HWHD industry certificates revised annually and currently includes certificates aligned with some pathways in these areas

 State-operated Area Technology Centers (ATCs)

• 53 serving 124 districts

 Local Area Vocational Education Centers (LAVECs)

• 42 serving 34 districts

 Comprehensive high schools

• Greatest number of CTE pathway completers

 Other

• District-funded CTE centers (8)
• Kentucky Community and Technical College System (KCTCS)

10

6

11

Area Technology Centers (ATCs)

12

Local Area Vocational Education Centers (LAVECs)

7

13

All CTE Delivery

 Background  CTE Pathway Completion And Demand  Workforce Outcomes  Conclusions And Future Considerations

14

8

15

10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000

Business and financial operations Construction and extraction Personal care and service Installation, maintenance, and repair Education, training, and library Management Production (Manufacturing) Sales and related Food preparation and serving related Transportation and material moving Office and administrative support Healthcare

Number Of Projected Jobs Occupation Group

Low Medium High

Two thirds of projected jobs do not require any education beyond high school

16

Note: this slide shows only those CTE areas that align well with major occupation groups reported in the Kentucky Future Skills Report. See full OEA report for pathways completed in all program areas. *OEA used the installation, maintenance and repair occupation group as the best indication of demand for CTE transportation pathway completers. 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Transportation* Food/accommodation Education Sales Constuction CTE Law/safety Manufacturing Agriculture Business and finance Health Percent CTE Program Area Percent CTE completers of graduates Percent sector jobs of all openings

9

The percentage of graduates completing CTE pathways in manufacturing, transportation and construction varies by:

 Region  CTE delivery in ATC, LAVEC or comprehensive

high school

 Student demographic group

17 18

5 10 15

Bluegrass Cumberlands EKCEP Green River Kentuckiana Works Lincoln Trail Northern Kentucky South Central TENCO Western Kentucky Percent CTE Supply Or Workforce Demand Local Workforce Area Percent sector jobs of all openings Percent CTE completers of graduates

10  Local industry demand  Cost of supplies and equipment

• Higher-wage pathways costly
• Higher-wage pathways concentrated in ATCs

 Availability of qualified teachers  Student interest

• New pathways not always well enrolled

19 20

1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000

Arts A/V Transportation STEM IT Retail Law & public safety Construction Manufacturing Human services Business and administration Agriculture Health Number Of Pathway Completers Program Area ATC LAVEC Comprehensive high schools

11

21

2 4 6 8 10 12 All Graduates (n=47,157) Female (n=23,183) Male (n=23,974) White (n=39,605) Black (n=5,482) Hispanic (n=2,576) FRPL (n=24,454) IEP (n=3,443) Percent Of Graduates Student Group Manufacturing Health

Background

 CTE Pathway Completion And Demand  Workforce Outcomes  Conclusions And Future Considerations

22

12

5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000

Average Wages ($) Number Working In Sector Industry Sector

Total number working in industry sector Average wages all high school graduates

76% male 93% male 14% male

24

5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000

No postsecondary degree or credential (n=19,486) Postsecondary certificate (n=925) Associate's degree (n=889) Average Wages ($) Postsecondary Education Level Completer Noncompleter

14%

22% 9%

13

5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000

Average Wages ($) CTE Program Area Note: see page 45 of the full report for wages in all program areas.

26

$31,461 $18,048 $36,250 $19,324 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 Manufacturing Health Average Wages ($) Industry Sector Of Employment Noncompleters All completers Completers in corresponding CTE program area

14

5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000

Average Wages ($) CTE Program Area Note: see page 45 of the full report for wages in all program areas. Pathway completers in some non-HWHD programs earn higher wages than pathway completers in some HWHD programs.

Possible explanations for higher wages:

 May have greater opportunities for work-

based learning (WBL)

 Agriculture teachers work 12 months, in order

to supervise student clubs and WBL

 Some pathways include technical skills like

welding and carpentry that might transfer to

• ther sectors

28

15

5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000

Average Wages ($) CTE Program Area No postsecondary degree or certificate Postsecondary certificate Associate or above

30

2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 CTE Completers Noncompleters Average Wages ($) Industry certificate/KOSSA No industry certifiate/KOSSA

16

31

5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 Female Male Female Male 3 Years after graduation 5 Years after graduation Average Wages ($) Completer Noncompleter

32

Note: Table includes 2018 wages of 2015 graduates.

Student Group Wages For CTE Completers Wages For CTE Noncompleters CTE wage premium Black $15,090 $12,526 20% Hispanic 19,657 17,249 14 White 18,671 15,333 22 FRPL 16,994 14,328 19 Not FRPL 20,737 15,944 30

17

 Background  CTE Pathway Completion And Demand  Workforce Outcomes  Conclusions And Future Considerations

33

 Clear and unmet demand for workers prepared

to work in higher-wage sectors like manufacturing, transportation, and construction

 Program completion in related sectors uneven

among regions, CTE delivery types, and student groups

 State investment in health pathways alone

insufficient in itself to produce higher-wage workers; higher-wage health jobs required college degrees

34

18

 Access to higher-wage pathways

• ATCs versus LAVECs and others
• Underrepresented student groups

 Local decision making

• In some cases, non-HWHD pathways may better reflect local

needs and be associated with higher wages than HWHD pathways

• CTE opportunities offered to high school students may not

always be aligned with workforce demand

 Use workforce data to evaluate outcomes

• Program completion and wages
• Industry and state-approved assessments and wages

35

END

36