y p o c t o n o d e Market or governmental intervention: - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Dec 18, 2023 140 likes •356 views

y p o c t o n o d e Market or governmental intervention: which topics remain U unsolved in the climate agreement T Energydays, 28/03/2019 Laetitia Ouillet Strategic Area Energy Climate agreement: What was his plan? y p o c t o

SLIDE 1

Strategic Area Energy Laetitia Ouillet

Energydays, 28/03/2019

Market or governmental intervention: which topics remain unsolved in the climate agreement

T U e d

c

y

SLIDE 2

Climate agreement: What was his plan?

Energydays 2

T U e d

c

y

SLIDE 3

Energydays 3

Let’s summarise it down to two graphs

Bron: eRisk Group, using PPSGen

T U e d

c

y

SLIDE 4

Energydays 4

What will happen to energy supply?

Bron: eRisk Group, using PPSGen

Wind offshore grows from 1-14GW in

12 years (NL). UK hopes to have reached this capacity level in 2022 already.

Solar and onshore wind will be regional

discussion (what’s a region?)

On-roof solar spinning out of (their)

control

No subsidy.

T U e d

c

y

SLIDE 5

Offshore wind

The Netherlands has

great ambitions

But the market is more

than that: position Germany and the UK

Some perspective on a

subsidy stop

Energydays 5

T U e d

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y

SLIDE 6

Energydays 6

No subsidy: but why?

T U e d

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y

SLIDE 7

On-roof solar

Not possible to steer, although one

thinks one can

Different business case, no rational

economic discussion

Planning of regional network operators
Capacity connection value: where is the

menu?

Energydays 7

T U e d

c

y

SLIDE 8

Existing production park

Coal plants: 4,6 GW (minus 680MW)
Conversion:yes/no/who pays?
Arbaheat (TNO, Engie). Combining

hydrogen to reduce the value loss (hydrogen cofiring 15-20%)

Who is negotiating with whom?

Kolenwet

Energydays 8

T U e d

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y

SLIDE 9

Security of supply

The Belgian case
Hinckley point: Nuclear is cheap? (92,5

GBP/MWh: 2x last tender price offshore wind NL (47 EUR/MWh)

Nederlandse laissez-faire, with a strong

role/room for the opinion and vision of TenneT

Role NL as export-country difficult to

combine with CO2 reduction ambitions

Energydays 9

T U e d

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y

SLIDE 10

The Netherlands: Island or new energy hub?

Energydays 10

Denmark 0,7 GW in 2030 Norway 0,7 GW in 2030 Germany 5,0 GW in 2030 Belgium 3,8 GW in 2030 United Kingdom 1,0 GW in 2030 Gas Electricity Heat NL energie hub LNG (Gate terminal) 12 bn m3 Russia (Nord Stream) 55 bn m3 United Kingdom (BBL) 9 bn m3 Norway 20 bn m3 Zuid Wending Storage 0,8 bn m3 Renewable electricity Renewable fuels Renewable Chemical Renewable heat Heat roundabout Heat storage Gas roundabout Electricity hub

T U e d

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y

SLIDE 11

Permit request energy island Doggersbank

Permit request for a new CCGT in the Eemshaven

Energydays 11

T U e d

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y

SLIDE 12

Energydays 12

And how about energy demand?

Bron: eRisk Group, using PPSGen

Electrification of high temperature heat
Electrical boilers within the industry
Heat pumps for households
Green gas, and all other names they call

it

Electrical cars

T U e d

c

y

SLIDE 13

Industrial heat

The transition that never will happen?
E-boilers: @ crossroad between two

negotiation tables

Large-scale flexibility supply: not the

intended (primary) function. And who’s in charge?

Industry does not foresee a role for

themselves on the energy market. Prosumer?

Energydays 13

T U e d

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y

SLIDE 14

Heat pumps next generation

Innovation versus lobby
Also available without noise, efficient

and with temperatures of 65+

Large markets: NL, UK, Japan and

Scandinavia

Role regarding the developmet of

demand

Financing constructions
And regulatory settings

Energydays 14

T U e d

c

y

SLIDE 15

Electric vehicles

Two pathways: Is that efficient?
Waterstof auto, nieuwe vormen van

brandstoffen (afval, bio enz)

Costs of batteries
Toyota is the kodak of the car industry

Energydays 15

T U e d

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y

SLIDE 16

Hydrogen

Ambition vs science
Double, triple, quadruple counting
Demand/supply game
Qualitative discussion
Infrastructure development: Market?

Network operator? Both?

Energydays 16

T U e d

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y

SLIDE 17

Flexibility development

Energydays 17

T U e d

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y

SLIDE 18

Comparing apples with pears

Energydays 18

MW MWh Ramp speed

1 2 3

very low low medium very high high

Conventional power plants, cross border capacity
Hydro, pump storage, Power to Heat, Demand Side

Response (e.g. electric mobility, heat pumps)

New fuels produced by abundant renewable power,

demand shifting through heat storage or heat / cold storage 1. Conventional solutions 2. New technologies and innovative applications of existing technologies 3. Seasonal flexibility

T U e d

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y

SLIDE 19

Dilemma business case flexibility

Energydays 19 DEMAND FOR FLEXIBILITY (MW)

Growth eCars, Heat

Pumps,

Storage technologies

and smart grids not yet developed

Batteries and

demand response Batteries and demand response become successful and manage all demand for flex

Further growth of

solar PV and win generation (by 2030 expected to be 4-5 times average peak demand)

Need for new

flexibility technologies

New technologies

(especially NextGen) finally solve the flexibility issues

YEARS

T U e d

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SLIDE 20

Topsport approach

Jongens Minioren 6 Jongens Junioren 4 Jongens Jeugd 2 Heren Senioren 2 Heren All In

01:08,37 00:55,57 00:54,42 00:53,59 00:53,37

Bron: KNZB Meerjaren Selectie Systeem 2017 Samenvatting van vereiste MSS-tijden voor 100 meter vlinderslag Tijden in een 50 meter-bad

Energydays 20