Wrap up and consolidation Roger Beecham www.roger-beecham.com - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Roger Beecham

www.roger-beecham.com

Wrap up and consolidation

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Module content and philosophy

Spatial modelling

• Data mining
• Response modelling
• Microsimulation
• Agent-based modelling

to similuate and predict consumer behaviour [content]

Research and industry case studies

to evaluate modelling techniques in practice [philosophy]

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Outcomes

By the end of this module you should be able to

• 1. explain and critically evaluate the role of spatial analytics in

simulating and predicting consumer behaviours

• 2. apply geocomputational modelling and simulation techniques on

real data sets

• 3. devise and employ spatial modelling tools to address business

problems, presenting and justifying recommendations in an appropriate context

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Guest Lecture

Rob Radburn

Leicestershire County Council

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What is (modern) data analysis?

DATA ANALYSIS IS

• A careful thinking about evidence

(data) in the context of a research problem

• DATS ANALYSIS

INVOLVES

• Defining your problem
• Identifying relevant data
• Selecting aspects of your data and

problem that can be reasonably

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You will take on the role of a customer segmentation expert for a travel company. Your task is to identify a specific segment of customers who could be targeted with a marking strategy. You will use the ‘synthetic’ population produced through microsimulation during practical sessions 1 and 2 to identify the target customers. The type of holiday destination and choice of customer sub-group(s) to target is up to you. Note that your job is to identify the sub-population(s) to be targeted, explain your methods and clearly present your results. There is no need to discuss how you would reach the customers you identify. You are expected to incorporate at least some appropriate academic literature in to your report. An indicative structure for your report is below.

• 1. Introduction: Identify and justify the scope of your study -- the destinations, holiday type

and customer groups of focus and why they are of interest.

• 2. Data and methods: Describe the data on which your study is based, the variables you have

selected and any derived variables you have created. Be sure to justify these decisions with reference to your study’s scope.

• 3. Results and analysis: A combination of charts, maps and tables – judiciously designed to

address the area of focus outlined in the introduction.

• 4. Conclusions: Synthesise over the findings to identify the customers to which a marketing

campaign could be targeted. Be sure to do so with reference to the evidence presented in your data analysis (section 3).

Assignment #1

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You will take on the role of a customer segmentation expert for a travel company. Your task is to identify a specific segment of customers who could be targeted with a marking strategy. You will use the ‘synthetic’ population produced through microsimulation during practical sessions 1 and 2 to identify the target customers. The type of holiday destination and choice of customer sub-group(s) to target is up to you. Note that your job is to identify the sub-population(s) to be targeted, explain your methods and clearly present your results. There is no need to discuss how you would reach the customers you identify. You are expected to incorporate at least some appropriate academic literature in to your report. An indicative structure for your report is below.

• 1. Introduction: Identify and justify the scope of your study -- the destinations, holiday type

and customer groups of focus and why they are of interest.

• 2. Data and methods: Describe the data on which your study is based, the variables you have

selected and any derived variables you have created. Be sure to justify these decisions with reference to your study’s scope.

• 3. Results and analysis: A combination of charts, maps and tables – judiciously designed to

address the area of focus outlined in the introduction.

• 4. Conclusions: Synthesise over the findings to identify the customers to which a marketing

campaign could be targeted. Be sure to do so with reference to the evidence presented in your data analysis (section 3).

Assignment #1

Your job is to identify the populations to be targeted, explain your methods and clearly present your results.

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1

microdata.csv


15,189 records

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microdata.csv


15,189 records

simulated_population.csv


320,596 records

Dataset

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Demographics – income, age, household structure Geography – where and what types of areas they tend to live in Psychographics – their motivations and preferences

Targeting

Identify and profile a target market using:

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Targeting

ageBand demographics incomeBand demographics numChildren demographics

• ac

geodemographics

• riginAirport

preference destinationAirport preference/attitude satisfactionScore preference/attitude

microdata.csv

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Targeting

ageBand demographics incomeBand demographics numChildren demographics

• ac

geodemographics

• riginAirport

preference destinationAirport preference/attitude satisfactionScore preference/attitude

What makes your target market distinct when compared to the population as a whole?

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Targeting

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Targeting

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Deviation from Expectation

evidence model

Average Surprise P(Uniform|Data) P(Gaussian|Data)

Unemployment Rate

0% 30.1%

(a) Per capita event rate map.

Average Surprise P(Uniform|Data) P(Gaussian|Data)

(a) Per capita event rate map.

Signed Surprise

• 0.114

0.114

(b) Signed Surprise Map.

Correll & Heer (2017) Surprise! Bayesian Weighting for De-Biasing Thematic Maps, IEEE TVCG

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Jo Wood

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women men

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Beecham and Wood, 2014

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Group-based presentations

Wednesday 11th December

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Assessment Assignment 2 Assignment 2 : Presentation schedule

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Keeping to time

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Delivering effective presentations

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Maxim #1 : avoid noise

• Background colours
• Logos
• Overly small font
• Too much text
• Unnecessary transitions

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Maxim #1 : avoid noise

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Excel default

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Remove bar shadow, grids and gradient

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Emphasise data, de-emphasise axes (non-data)

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Affect design according to purpose [comparison]

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Low-to-middle income groups are overrepresented amongst IBZ holidaymakers LDS IBZ

Emphasise key patterns

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Maxim #1 : avoid noise

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 0-10K 11-15K 16-20K 21-25K 26-30K 31-35K 36-40K 41-50K 51-60K 61-70K 71-80K 81K Plus

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Low-to-middle income groups are overrepresented amongst IBZ holidaymakers LDS IBZ

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Maxim #2 : refine

With each slide, convey one message (only)

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Maxim #3 : reduce

Be concise, both verbally and visually

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Maxim #4 : compliment

Slides should display things that can’t be easily spoken

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Maxim #5 : layout

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Maxim #5 : layout

Things that are laid out far apart are more difficult to compare

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Maxim #5 : layout

Things that are laid out far apart are more difficult to compare than things that are laid out close together.

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Maxim #5 : layout

Things that are almost to interpret.

• verlap impossible

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Maxim #5 : layout - sequence

ORDER We expect things to be displayed in sequence. If we wish to imply a sequence, arrange things in that sequence. This can be particularly useful when ‘telling a story’ in a presentation.

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Jean-Luc Doumont

http://bit.ly/2Ap1Ynn

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?

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Module survey : Please

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Module survey : Please

• take your time
• remember that this is anonymous
• be as specific as possible - detail
• identify both positives and negatives
• use the full range of scores
• consider ‘feedback’ broadly

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break