Worldwide Prospects for Renewable Energy Towards 2050 and Beyond - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Worldwide Prospects for Renewable Energy Towards 2050 and Beyond

Trial Lecture Georgi H. Yordanov 17 December 2012

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OUTLINE

• Why the World needs renewable energy (RE)
• Q1: How much RE by 2050?
• Q2: What relative shares of the different RES?
• Scenarios for the energy portfolio until 2050
• Overview of the most promising RE technologies

• Atmospheric GHG must be kept within 450 ppm

CO2 eq. in order to avoid Climate Catastrophe

• Nuclear power generation is associated with

unacceptably high risks for human health and the environment. Examples: Chernobyl, Fukushima, 3-Mile Island… Radioactive waste!!!

• Earth’s population has surpassed 7 BN and is

depleting its resources at unprecedented rates! Peak Oil, Peak Gas, etc. Most RE is extrinsic (the sun; Availability ~ 109 yr). Long-term sustainability!

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WHY WE NEED RE

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ENERGY PATHS Source: IPCC Special Report on RE Sources, 2012

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ENERGY BY PRESENT Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2012 33 % Oil; 30 % Coal; 24 % Gas; 8 % RE (6.5 % Hydro)

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DISTRIBUTION Source: IPCC Special Report on RE Sources, 2012

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RE 2008 Source: IPCC Special Report on RE Sources, 2012

Source: Shell Energy Scenarios to 2050

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RISING POPULATION

Source: UN

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RISING POPULATION

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QUO VADIS, MANKIND?!

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POSSIBLE FUTURES Source: IPCC Climate Change Report, 2007

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ΔT ≤ +2°C by 2100!!!

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• A great challenge: keep the increase in the mean

global T below 2°C by 2100!!!

• ΔT > 2°C  dangerous disruption to the climate

 numerous and significant risks to mankind

• UN Climate Change Conf. (Copenhagen, Dec 2009):

no binding time-table, global coordination, viable monitoring system nor scope to impose sanctions

• The EU: a greater sense of urgency is needed!!!

THE FUTURE WE WANT

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DECARBONIZATION

Source: IEA Energy Technology Perspectives, 2012

RE use is a key part of the actions needed to reduce the man-made GHG emissions (CO2 in particular)

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A MANY PARTS SOLUTION

RE use alone may not be enough! Need efficiency, CCS, etc.

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WHAT IF CCS FAILS?

IEA: Lack of progress in carbon capture and storage (CCS)!!! We may need more RE than we think or want!!!

Where Are We Now?

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• IEA: Only a portfolio of more mature RE technologies –

hydro, biomass, onshore wind and solar photovoltaic (PV) – are making sufficient progress.

• Fossil fuels still dominant; demand growth continues,

locking in high-carbon infrastructure. The investments made today will determine the energy system that is in place in 2050.

• IEA, EU concerned about “the lack of (sufficient)

progress in clean energy”

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UPSURGE OF COAL

• According to BP, the key determinants for the

future of the GHG emissions are China and India

• “GDP of China and India ~2x by 2020” (Dieter Helm

Professor, Uni. Oxford – “The Carbon Crunch”)

• 400–600 GW new coal-fired power plants if the 12th

5-year plan is implemented in China (Ibid.)

• New coal-fired PPs to replace nuclear in Germany!
• Solution: coalgas + CO2 cons. tax + MUCH RE!!!

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PRESENT MEASURES German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU): judging from the current pledges, a global mean T increase of ≥ 3ºC can be expected by 2100 Energy system transformation is inevitable anyway! Proposed: Climate Policy Contagion led by the EU! 100 % RE in EU by 2050 (!!!) + energy efficiency!!! EU-wide FIT for RE to ensure financial support

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DOHA CC CONFERENCE

• 27 Nov – 8 Dec, 2012, Doha, Qatar
• Russia, Japan and Canada withdrew from Kyoto!!!
• Expiry of the Kyoto protocol (end of 2012) would

leave the world with no legally binding deal to confront global warming! Source: UN Framework Convention on Climate Change

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EU ROADMAP 2050

• High RE scenario: 75 % RE if CCS fails!!! Grid costs

€ 55×109/year; STORAGE!!! No. 1 - wind

• Current policies (post-Fukushima): ≥ 55 % RE
• Electricity share ~2x (36-39 % in 2050)
• Discussion on binding RE target will begin soon
• The 20 % efficiency improvement by 2020 is failing!

High efficiency scenario: energy demand ‒45 %.

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IPCC: RE 2050

• The IPCC believes 77 % RE possible by 2050

 1/3 less GHG emissions than business-as-usual  Atmospheric GHG kept within 450 ppm CO2 eq.  Global mean T increase ≤ 2°C (equilibrium value)

• Requires consistent climate and energy policy!!!
• 164 scenarios; solar ≤ 40 %; wind > 20 %

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IPCC SCENARIOS Source: IPCC Special Report on RE Sources, 2012

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IPCC SCENARIOS

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SHELL’S “SCRAMBLE”

• The worse of 2 scenarios (2 imperfect futures)
• Primary energy in 2050: ~ 850 EJ/yr; RE: > 300 EJ/yr (35 %)

Source: Shell Energy Scenarios to 2050

EU Energy targets 20-20-20 by 2020:

Solar, wind and biomass are the technologies progressing most

• rapidly. Solar and wind develop for electricity generation while

biomass remains dominant for the heating sector.

Source: EU Commission

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THE EARLY STAGE

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POTENTIALS

Source: IPCC Special Report on RE Sources, 2012

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BIOMASS

Low-efficiency bioenergy plays a critical role in the lives of billions in the developing countries. High-efficiency modern bioenergy uses more convenient solids, liquids and gases as secondary energy carriers to generate heat, electricity, CHP, and transport fuels. ~ 60 EJ/yr at present

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BIOENERGY IN 2050

• Estimated potential in 2050: 100-300 EJ/yr
• Achieving 300 EJ/yr would require major policy

efforts, especially targeting improvements and efficiency increases in the agricultural sector and good governance of land use (e.g., zoning).

• ΔT ≤ 2°C would require on the average 160 EJ/yr

(i.e., a compound annual growth rate of 3 %/yr). Possible?? GDP grew ~3.3 %/yr (1970-2010) but with low-cost transport & energy; Unemployment: China 4.1 %, EU 10.7 %, US 7.7 %

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ENABLERS VS. RISKS

Source: IPCC Special Report on RE Sources, 2012

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PHOTOSYNTHETIC UPTAKE IS IMPORTANT!

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BIOENERGY ROUTES

Source: IPCC Special Report on RE Sources, 2012

DIRECT SOLAR

• 4 main technologies: thermal, PV, CSP & fuels production
• Most pessimistic technical potential: ~1,600 EJ/yr (2008: 492 EJ)
• Current use of primary solar energy: ~0.7 EJ/yr
• 2050: 15-80 EJ/yr (avg. ~35 EJ/yr); Avg. growth rate 11 %/yr

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PV & CSP

Source: IPCC Special Report on RE Sources, 2012

• PV is the fastest growing solar technology thanks to subsidies (FIT)
• The compound growth rate over the past decade was ~50 %/yr!!!
• HCPV is much less competitive than PV (requires sun tracking)
• Unlike CSP, residential PV & thermal ratings start from a few kWP!

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GEOTHERMAL

Source: IPCC Special Report on RE Sources, 2012

• Peak fluxes concentrated at active tectonic regions;
• Presently < 0.5 EJ/yr
• Projections for 2050 average at ~4 EJ/yr (requires growth 6 %/yr)

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HYDROPOWER

Present PE use: 13 EJ/yr; 2050: ~ 20 EJ/yr (max. 52 EJ/yr)

WIND ENERGY

• 3 % of the worldwide electricity demand in 2012
• Could grow to > 20 % by 2050 in ambitious scenarios
• Onshore wind is being deployed rapidly in many countries
• Already competitive in areas with good wind resources

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WIND ENERGY 2050

• Present primary wind energy use: 1.8 EJ/yr
• Median projection for 2050: 27 EJ/yr (required growth: 7.4 %/yr)
• 14 % of global electricity supply

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OCEAN ENERGY

• 6 types of energy; most technologies in early development stage
• Until about 2008, ocean energy was not considered in any of the

major global energy scenario modeling activities.

• Pessimistic projections for 2050: < 1 EJ/yr

Source: IPCC Special Report on RE Sources, 2012

RE BEYOND 2050

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RE use depends on developments; 4 key scenarios; My guess for 2100: pop. 7-11 BN; a hot (+3-5°C), regional, depleted world

RE2100 ≈ RE2050±50 % Limits to Growth  7 BN?!!